Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-21-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-21-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced
Darren Lumbroso
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA, UK
Mark Davison
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA, UK
Richard Body
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA, UK
Gregor Petkovšek
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA, UK
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- Progressive Failure Mechanisms of Lenticles Interlayered Tailings Composites Under Layered Anisotropy Y. Hou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40098-025-01449-3
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51 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Flood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case study M. Shirvani & G. Kesserwani https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021
- Insights from the Compilation and Critical Assessment of Breach and Runout Characteristics from Historical Tailings Dam Failures: Implications for Numerical Modelling D. Adria et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10230-023-00964-0
- Assessing sediment dynamics and erosion-deposition patterns after a dam break: Insights from the Brumadinho tailings dam failure in Brazil C. Mello & J. Eleutério https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2025.105472
- Modified of ERM Index for Southeast Asia D. Pangestuti et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2023.2199906
- Numerical investigation of creeping rockmass interaction with hardening and shrinking cemented paste backfill B. Yan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2022.127639
- Public databases of tailings storage facilities fall short of full risk disclosure R. Massignan & L. Sánchez https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2024.101420
- Three-dimensional intelligent monitoring and early warning technology for tailings ponds based on spatiotemporal fusion of multisource big data W. Nie et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13242-5
- Probabilistic Analysis of Floods from Tailings Dam Failures: A Method to Analyze the Impact of Rheological Parameters on the HEC-RAS Bingham and Herschel-Bulkley Models M. Melo & J. Eleutério https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162866
- From Prospect to Postclosure: Essential Tailings Management Knowledge for Exploration Geologists M. Shahsavari et al. https://doi.org/10.5382/Geo-and-Mining-29
- Engineering Potentials and Stability of Nigerian Waste Rocks as Alternative construction Geo-materials and Earth Structure Fills R. Maduka & O. Igwe https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10062-0
- Review of Historical Dam-Break Events and Laboratory Tests on Real Topography for the Validation of Numerical Models F. Aureli et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13141968
- Brief communication: Landslide activity on the Argentinian Santa Cruz River mega dam works confirmed by PSI DInSAR G. Tamburini-Beliveau et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1987-2023
- Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling A. Silva et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025
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- The Reprocessing and Revalorization of Critical Minerals in Mine Tailings C. Vitti & B. Arnold https://doi.org/10.1007/s42461-021-00524-6
- Tailings Dam Performance Monitoring by Combining Coda Wave Interferometry with Distributed Acoustic Sensing S. Ouellet et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JGGEFK.GTENG-13066
- Development of an agent-based model to improve emergency planning for floods and dam failures D. Lumbroso et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2023.194
- Advances in Dam-Break Modeling for Flood Hazard Mitigation: Theory, Numerical Models, and Applications in Hydraulic Engineering F. Aureli et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16081093
- Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil A. Silva & J. Eleutério https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023
- Estimating loss of life caused by dam breaches based on the simulation of floods routing and evacuation potential of population at risk W. Ge et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128059
- The Life Safety Model: An Agent-Based Model to Improve Emergency Planning for Floods and Dam Failures D. Lumbroso et al. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3987793
- Prototype Scale Evaluation of Non-Newtonian Algorithms in HEC-RAS: Mud and Debris Flow Case Studies of Santa Barbara and Brumadinho S. Gibson et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12030134
- Induced social responsibility in global mineral supply chains: Fatalities from tailings dam failures T. Sugiyama et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145983
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- High-temperature thermochemical conversion of iron ore tailings into diopside and akermanite-based composite materials X. Zou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apt.2024.104670
- Dynamic planning method of evacuation route in dam-break flood scenario based on the ACO-GA hybrid algorithm K. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104219
- Probabilistic mapping of life loss due to dam-break flooding A. Maranzoni et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06285-3
- Rainfall-induced hydrological triggers and static liquefaction: a case study of the Brumadinho tailings dam failure P. Alizadeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s44147-026-01003-9
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- A new look at the statistics of tailings dam failures L. Piciullo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2022.106657
- Mineralogy, Geochemistry, and Thermal Properties of Historic Clay-Bearing Mine Waste Tailings from Tonopah, Nevada: Implications for Reprocessing and Economic Potential S. Snell et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42461-026-01467-6
- Validation of an Empirical Model with Risk Assessment Functionalities to Simulate and Evaluate the Tailings Dam Failure in Brumadinho T. Dedring et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116681
- Spatiotemporal evolution of mine tailings released in sand-bed rivers A. Rojas-Aguirre & M. Garcia https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2024.2446567
- Simulation of breaching of laboratory-scale earth dams by overtopping with XBeach K. Barlow et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104471
- A Suggested Equivalent Method for a Drainage Structure to Analyze Seepage in Tailings Dam H. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/ma15207154
- Increasing flood awareness through dam-break serious games M. Gomes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104543
- COMPARATIVE GLOBAL REVIEW OF DAM FAILURES: MINING TAILINGS VERSUS HYDRO, INDUSTRIAL, AND CIVIL DAMS — CAUSES, MECHANISMS, AND LESSONS LEARNED A. Clareti Pereira https://doi.org/10.47820/recima21.v7i1.7147
- Experiments on Entrainment of Tailings into Suspension in an Annular Flume A. Rojas-Aguirre & M. Garcia https://doi.org/10.1061/JHEND8.HYENG-14095
- Technology, Human Progress, and Ethics in Copper Mining: A Perspective from Laudato Si’ F. Lorenzo Valdés & P. Serrano Trespalacios https://doi.org/10.1007/s41463-026-00224-7
- Advanced monitoring of tailings dam performance using seismic noise and stress models S. Ouellet et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00629-w
- Indium in ore deposits and mine waste environments: Geochemistry, mineralogy, and opportunities for recovery O. Mejías et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2023.107312
- Efficiency-fairness trade-offs in evacuation management of urban floods: The effects of the shelter capacity and zone prioritization W. Oh et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253395
- The slip surface mechanism of delayed failure of the Brumadinho tailings dam in 2019 F. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01086-9
- Integrating reverse osmosis to a conventional river water treatment plant as a strategy to produce drinking water after mining dam rupture events: a case study V. Moreira et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/09593330.2024.2326799
- Tracking Deformation Processes at the Legnica Glogow Copper District (Poland) by Satellite InSAR—II: Żelazny Most Tailings Dam P. Mazzanti et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10060654
- Progressive Failure Mechanisms of Lenticles Interlayered Tailings Composites Under Layered Anisotropy Y. Hou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40098-025-01449-3
- A metamodel for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the modeling of loss of life due to dam failures J. Duarte & V. Costa https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2024.325
- 2D and 3D Numerical Simulation of Dam-Break Flooding: A Case Study of the Tuzluca Dam, Turkey C. Akgun et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15203622
- Effectiveness of a Dam-Breach Flood Alert in Mitigating Life Losses: A Spatiotemporal Sectorisation Analysis in a High-Density Urban Area in Brazil A. Silva & J. Eleutério https://doi.org/10.3390/w15193433
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 15 Jun 2026
Short summary
A tailings dam is an earth embankment used to store the waste from mines, known as tailings. In 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil failed, releasing a mudflow which killed ~ 300 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model to estimate the risk to people downstream of this dam. The agent-based model represents each individual person. The modelling indicated that if a warning had been issued as the dam failed, the number of fatalities could have been reduced.
A tailings dam is an earth embankment used to store the waste from mines, known as tailings. In...
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