Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
Sebastian Scheuer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Landscape Ecology Lab, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Dagmar Haase
Landscape Ecology Lab, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Annegret Haase
Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Manuel Wolff
Landscape Ecology Lab, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Thilo Wellmann
Landscape Ecology Lab, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
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14 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Assessing 40 Years of Flood Risk Evolution at the Micro-Scale Using an Innovative Modeling Approach: The Effects of Urbanization and Land Planning T. Lazzarin et al. 10.3390/geosciences13040112
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- Assessment of dynamic drought-induced ecosystem risk: Integrating time-varying hazard frequency, exposure and vulnerability W. Fang et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118176
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- Climate risk archetypes. Identifying similarities and differences of municipal risks for the adaptation process based on municipalities in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany N. Riach et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100526
- Exploring contribution of climate and population scenarios for southwest Germany on heat exposure of the elderly population N. Riach et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109695
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru C. Geiß et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024
- Assessing 40 Years of Flood Risk Evolution at the Micro-Scale Using an Innovative Modeling Approach: The Effects of Urbanization and Land Planning T. Lazzarin et al. 10.3390/geosciences13040112
- Relative Preference for Living in a Safer Place from Natural Disasters: A Case Study at Tokyo, Japan T. Takabatake & N. Hasegawa 10.3390/land11101781
- Assessment of dynamic drought-induced ecosystem risk: Integrating time-varying hazard frequency, exposure and vulnerability W. Fang et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118176
- Evaluating relocation behavior of establishments: Evidence for the short-term effects of COVID-19 A. Riahi Samani et al. 10.1177/23998083241230580
- Machine Learning vs Conventional Specifications for Housing Relocation Decisions M. Bostanara et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4221706
- Higher immigration and lower land take rates are driving a new densification wave in European cities C. Cortinovis et al. 10.1038/s42949-022-00062-0
- Assessing the impact of land surface temperature on off-seasonal precipitation in Surat city at the regional level R. Patil & M. Surawar 10.1016/j.pce.2024.103844
- Mapping and evaluating sustainable and unsustainable urban areas for ecological management towards achieving low-carbon city: an empirical study of Asir Region, Saudi Arabia S. Alqadhi et al. 10.1007/s11356-023-27129-4
- Reinforcing nature-based solutions through tools providing social-ecological-technological integration T. Wellmann et al. 10.1007/s13280-022-01801-4
- Probabilistic Water Demand Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Algorithms G. Papacharalampous & A. Langousis 10.1029/2021WR030216
- A realistic framework for modelling residential relocation behaviour considering past, present, and future using DDCM: A Sydney case study M. Bostanara et al. 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105245
- Climate risk archetypes. Identifying similarities and differences of municipal risks for the adaptation process based on municipalities in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany N. Riach et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100526
- Exploring contribution of climate and population scenarios for southwest Germany on heat exposure of the elderly population N. Riach et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109695
Latest update: 13 Aug 2025
Short summary
The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model...
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