Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 02 Jul 2021
| 02 Jul 2021
Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University,
Ithaca, New York, USA
Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell
University, Ithaca, New York, USA
Kevin I. Hodges
Environmental System Science Centre, University of Reading, Reading,
United Kingdom
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University,
Ithaca, New York, USA
Related authors
Tristan J. Shepherd, Frederick L. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-373, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
An historic derecho in the US is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of dollars in damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions resulting in a large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation from using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is potentially a significant source of energy loss and expense for wind farm operators. This study presents a novel approach to characterizing LEE potential from precipitation across the contiguous USA based on publicly available National Weather Service dual-polarization RADAR data. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Weifei Hu, and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3797–3819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Wind gusts are a key driver of aerodynamic loading, and common approximations used to describe wind gust behavior may not be appropriate in complex terrain at heights relevant to wind turbines and other structures. High-resolution observations from sonic anemometers and vertically pointing Doppler lidars collected in the Perdigão experiment are analyzed to provide a foundation for improved wind gust characterization in complex terrain.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Ville Vakkari, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 821–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the wind speed across the rotor of a wind turbine is key in making good predictions of the power production. However, models struggle to capture both the speed and the shape of the wind profile. Using machine learning methods based on the model data, we show that the predictions can be improved drastically. The work focuses on three coastal sites, spread over the Northern Hemisphere (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the US Atlantic coast) with similar results for all sites.
Rebecca Foody, Jacob Coburn, Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 263–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using lidar-derived wind speed measurements at approx. 150 m height at onshore and offshore locations, we quantify the advantages of deploying wind turbines offshore in terms of the amount of electrical power produced and the higher reliability and predictability of the electrical power.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1651–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are special types of non-ideal wind profiles affecting both wind energy production and loads on a wind turbine. However, among LLJ researchers, there is no consensus regarding which definition to use to identify these profiles. In this work, we compare two different ways of identifying the LLJ – the falloff definition and the shear definition – and argue why the shear definition is better suited to wind energy applications.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Elliott Michael Sainsbury, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Alexander J. Baker, Len C. Shaffrey, Kieran T. Bhatia, and Stella Bourdin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1359–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring severe weather to Europe. By tracking and identifying PTCs in five global climate models, we investigate how the frequency and intensity of PTCs may change across Europe by 2100. We find no robust change in the frequency or intensity of Europe-impacting PTCs in the future. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Alexander F. Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1097–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the location and intensity of hazardous weather across the Arctic is important for assessing risks to infrastructure, shipping, and coastal communities. This study describes the typical lifetime and structure of intense winter and summer Arctic cyclones. Results show the composite development and structure of intense summer Arctic cyclones are different from intense winter Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean extra-tropical cyclones and from conceptual models.
Suzanne L. Gray, Kevin I. Hodges, Jonathan L. Vautrey, and John Methven
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1303–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates, using feature identification and tracking, that anticlockwise rotating vortices at about 7 km altitude called tropopause polar vortices frequently interact with storms developing in the Arctic region, affecting their structure and where they occur. This interaction has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but a relatively small spatial scale of these vortices compared with the density of the polar observation network.
Tristan J. Shepherd, Frederick L. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-373, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
An historic derecho in the US is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of dollars in damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions resulting in a large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation from using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are pronounced maxima in wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine performance and longevity. We present a climatology of LLJs over Iowa using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and determine the rotor plane conditions when they occur. LLJ characteristics are highly sensitive to the identification criteria applied, and different (unique) LLJs are extracted with each criterion. LLJ characteristics also vary with different model output resolution.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is potentially a significant source of energy loss and expense for wind farm operators. This study presents a novel approach to characterizing LEE potential from precipitation across the contiguous USA based on publicly available National Weather Service dual-polarization RADAR data. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments.
Rebecca J. Barthelmie and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3463–3484, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Wakes are volumes of air with low wind speed that form downwind of wind turbines. Their properties and behaviour determine optimal turbine spacing in wind farms. We use scanning Doppler lidar to accurately and precisely measure wake characteristics at a complex terrain site in Portugal. We develop and apply an automatic processing algorithm to detect wakes and quantify their characteristics. In higher wind speeds, the wake centres are lower. Wake centres are also lower in convective conditions.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Weifei Hu, and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3797–3819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Wind gusts are a key driver of aerodynamic loading, and common approximations used to describe wind gust behavior may not be appropriate in complex terrain at heights relevant to wind turbines and other structures. High-resolution observations from sonic anemometers and vertically pointing Doppler lidars collected in the Perdigão experiment are analyzed to provide a foundation for improved wind gust characterization in complex terrain.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Sara C. Pryor, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 651–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variability (IAV) of annual energy production (AEP) from wind turbines due to IAV in wind speeds from proposed wind farms plays a key role in dictating project financing but is only poorly constrained. This study provides improved quantification of IAV over eastern N. America using purpose-performed long-term numerical simulations. It may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to preconstruction AEP estimates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.
Paula Doubrawa, Alex Montornès, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Pau Casso
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-61, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We perform time-resolved, high-resolution simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer with a numerical weather prediction model. The downscaling is done within the model by defining nested domains, and we investigate different ways of treating turbulence modeling at intermediate spatial scales in which traditional turbulence parameterizations are inadequate. We focus on quantities of interest to wind energy and compare the simulations with measurements collected at a complex-terrain site.
Sara C. Pryor, Ryan C. Sullivan, and Justin T. Schoof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14457–14471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14457-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14457-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The air temperature and water vapor content are increasing globally due to the increased concentration of "heat-trapping" (greenhouse) gases. But not all regions are warming at the same rate. This analysis is designed to improve understanding of the causes of recent trends and year-to-year variability in summertime heat indices over the eastern US and to present a new model that can be used to make projections of future events that may cause loss of life and/or decreased human well-being.
K. Emma Knowland, Ruth M. Doherty, Kevin I. Hodges, and Lesley E. Ott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12421–12447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12421-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12421-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
First study to our knowledge to quantify the influence extratropical cyclones have on the temporal variability of springtime surface ozone (O3) measured on the west coast of Europe when cyclones are nearby. We show passing cyclones have a discernible influence on surface O3 concentrations. In-depth findings from four case studies, using a combination of reanalyses and a modeled tracer, demonstrate there are several transport pathways before O3-rich air eventually reaches the surface.
Paola Crippa, Ryan C. Sullivan, Abhinav Thota, and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1511–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1511-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we quantify WRF-CHEM sensitivity in simulating meteorological, chemical and aerosol properties as a function of spatial resolution.
We demonstrate that WRF-Chem at high resolution improves model performance of meteorological and gas-phase parameters and of mean and extreme aerosol properties over North America. A dry bias in specific humidity and precipitation in the coarse simulations is identified as cause of the better performance of the high-resolution simulations.
H. Wang, R. J. Barthelmie, P. Doubrawa, and S. C. Pryor
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4123–4139, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4123-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4123-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how long a sampling duration of lidar measurements should be in order to accurately estimate radial velocity variance to obtain turbulence statistics. Using observations and statistical simulations, it is demonstrated that large probe volumes in lidar measurements increase the autocorrelation values, and consequently the uncertainty in radial velocity variance estimates. It is further shown that the random error can exceed 10 % for 30–60 min sampling duration.
Hui Wang, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Gareth. Brown
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1653-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1653-2016, 2016
P. Crippa, R. C. Sullivan, A. Thota, and S. C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 397–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-397-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-397-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of high-resolution simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry in capturing spatiotemporal variability of aerosol optical properties by comparison with ground- and space- based remote-sensing observations and investigate causes of model biases. This work contributes to assessing the model's ability to describe drivers of aerosol direct radiative forcing in the contemporary climate and to improving confidence in future projections.
F. Yu, G. Luo, S. C. Pryor, P. R. Pillai, S. H. Lee, J. Ortega, J. J. Schwab, A. G. Hallar, W. R. Leaitch, V. P. Aneja, J. N. Smith, J. T. Walker, O. Hogrefe, and K. L. Demerjian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13993–14003, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13993-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The role of low-volatility organics in new particle formation (NPF) in the atmosphere is assessed. An empirical formulation in which formation rate is a function of the concentrations of sulfuric acid and low-volatility organics significantly overpredicts NPF in the summer.
Two different schemes predict quite different nucleation rates (including their spatial patterns), concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei, and aerosol first indirect radiative forcing in North America.
S. C. Pryor, K. E. Hornsby, and K. A. Novick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11985–11996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11985-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11985-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
What role do forests play in determining the concentration (and composition) of climate-relevant aerosol particles? This study seeks to address two aspects of this question. Firstly, we document high in-canopy removal of recently formed particles. Then we show evidence that growth rates of particles are a function of soil water availability via a reduction in canopy emissions of gases responsible for particle growth to climate-relevant sizes during drought conditions.
J. Ortega, A. Turnipseed, A. B. Guenther, T. G. Karl, D. A. Day, D. Gochis, J. A. Huffman, A. J. Prenni, E. J. T. Levin, S. M. Kreidenweis, P. J. DeMott, Y. Tobo, E. G. Patton, A. Hodzic, Y. Y. Cui, P. C. Harley, R. S. Hornbrook, E. C. Apel, R. K. Monson, A. S. D. Eller, J. P. Greenberg, M. C. Barth, P. Campuzano-Jost, B. B. Palm, J. L. Jimenez, A. C. Aiken, M. K. Dubey, C. Geron, J. Offenberg, M. G. Ryan, P. J. Fornwalt, S. C. Pryor, F. N. Keutsch, J. P. DiGangi, A. W. H. Chan, A. H. Goldstein, G. M. Wolfe, S. Kim, L. Kaser, R. Schnitzhofer, A. Hansel, C. A. Cantrell, R. L. Mauldin, and J. N. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6345–6367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
The role of citizen science to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID Lightning Location System
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: Climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: The roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research analyzes the meteo-hydrological features of August 27th and 28th 2023 event occurred in Genoa city. Rainfall observations were taken using either official or rain gauge networks based on citizen science. The combined analysis highlights a spatial variability of the precipitations, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of the authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over sub-hourly duration are significant.
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveils distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. Daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed that they were beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe weather forecast and warning need to advance to trigger our imagination of what might be about to happen and start preparing.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called 'ensemble prediction'. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity, space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitations.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level PV anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptical analysis.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops (wheat, maize, barley, rapeseed) and grapevines after a hailstorm. Using radar, agricultural land use data, and damage reports, it finds that the model performs best in the main production areas and at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevines. It also highlights the trade-offs in selecting suitable hail size thresholds for modeling, which eventually depends on user needs and cost considerations.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite cloud top detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports, is presented. Hail likelihood peaks in central summer at 15 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to a previous estimate. Separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large hail occurrence is found.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Cited articles
AMS: American Meteoroligical Society Glossary of Meteorology: available at: https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Rain (last access: 16 February 2021), 2012.
Angel, J. R. and Isard, S. A.: An Observational Study of the Influence of the Great Lakes on the Speed and Intensity of Passing Cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 125.9, 2228–2237, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2228:AOSOTI>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Baldini, L. M., Baldini, J. U., McElwaine, J. N., Frappier, A. B., Asmerom,
Y., Liu, K.-b., Prufer, K. M., Ridley, H. E., Polyak, V., and Kennett, D.
J.: Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration
over the past five centuries, Sci. Rep., 6, 37522, 2016.
Bao, M., Ding, Y., Sang, M., Li, D., Shao, C., and Yan, J.: Modeling and
evaluating nodal resilience of multi-energy systems under windstorms,
Appl. Energ., 270, 115136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115136, 2020.
Barthelmie, R. J., Dantuono, K., Renner, E., Letson, F. W., and Pryor, S.
C.: Extreme wind and waves in U.S. east coast offshore wind energy lease
areas, Energies, 14, 1053, https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041053, 2021.
Befort, D. J., Wild, S., Kruschke, T., Ulbrich, U., and Leckebusch, G. C.:
Different long-term trends of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms in
ERA-20C and NOAA-20CR reanalyses, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17, 586–595,
2016.
Bengtsson, L., Hagemann, S., and Hodges, K. I.: Can climate trends be
calculated from reanalysis data?, J. Geophsy. Res.-Atmos., 109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004536, 2004.
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Keenlyside, N.: Will extratropical storms
intensify in a warmer climate?, J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301, 2009.
Bentley, A. M., Bosart, L. F., and Keyser, D.: A climatology of
extratropical cyclones leading to extreme weather events over central and
eastern North America, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1471–1490, 2019.
Bierly, G. D. and Harrington, J. A.: A Climatology of Transition Season
Colorado Cyclones – 1961–1990, J. Climate, 8, 853–863, 1995.
Bloomfield, H., Shaffrey, L., Hodges, K., and Vidale, P.: A critical
assessment of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic
Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis,
Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 094004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad5c5, 2018.
Booth, J. F., Rieder, H. E., Lee, D. E., and Kushnir, Y.: The paths of
extratropical cyclones associated with wintertime high-wind events in the
northeastern United States, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol.,
54, 1871–1885, 2015.
Bouwer, L. M., Crompton, R. P., Faust, E., Höppe, P., and Pielke Jr., R.
A.: Confronting disaster losses, Science, 318, 753, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1149628, 2007.
Brönnimann, S., Martius, O., von Waldow, H., Welker, C., Luterbacher,
J., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., and Usbeck, T.: Extreme winds at
northern mid-latitudes since 1871, Meteorologische Z., 21, 13–27,
2012.
Brown, T. M., Pogorzelski, W. H., and Giammanco, I. M.: Evaluating hail
damage using property insurance claims data, Weather Clim. Soc.,
7, 197–210, 2015.
Browning, K.: The sting at the end of the tail: Damaging winds associated
with extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 375–399, 2004.
Changnon, S. A.: Temporal and spatial distributions of wind storm damages in
the United States, Climatic Change, 94, 473–482, 2009.
Clark, P. A. and Gray, S. L.: Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: a
review, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 943–969,
2018.
Copernicus: Climate Reanalysis, available at: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-reanalysis, last access: 6 June 2021.
Cunha, L. K., Smith, J. A., Krajewski, W. F., Baeck, M. L., and Seo, B.-C.:
NEXRAD NWS polarimetric precipitation product evaluation for IFloodS,
J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 1676–1699, 2015.
Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M. A., Kleinn, J., and
Appenzeller, C.: The return period of wind storms over Europe, International
J. Climatol., 29, 437–459, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1794, 2009.
Dörenkämper, M., Olsen, B. T., Witha, B., Hahmann, A. N., Davis, N. N., Barcons, J., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Sastre-Marugán, M., Sīle, T., Trei, W., Žagar, M., Badger, J., Gottschall, J., Sanz Rodrigo, J., and Mann, J.: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020.
Earl, N., Dorling, S., Starks, M., and Finch, R.: Subsynoptic-scale features
associated with extreme surface gusts in UK extratropical cyclone events,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3932–3940, 2017.
Eisenhauer, J. G.: Regression through the origin, Teaching statistics, 25,
76–80, 2003.
Feser, F., Barcikowska, M., Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Weisse, R., and Xia,
L.: Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe – A review,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 350–382, 2015.
Gall, M., Borden, K. A., and Cutter, S. L.: When do losses count? Six
fallacies of natural hazards loss data, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 799–810, 2009.
Gall, M., Borden, K. A., Emrich, C. T., and Cutter, S. L.: The unsustainable
trend of natural hazard losses in the United States, Sustainability, 3,
2157–2181, 2011.
Golden, J. H. and Snow, J. T.: Mitigation against extreme windstorms,
Rev. Geophys., 29, 477–504, 1991.
Gramcianinov, C., Campos, R., de Camargo, R., Hodges, K., Soares, C. G., and
da Silva Dias, P.: Analysis of Atlantic extratropical storm tracks
characteristics in 41 years of ERA5 and CFSR/CFSv2 databases, Ocean
Eng., 216, 108111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108111, 2020.
Halverson, J. B. and Rabenhorst, T.: Hurricane Sandy: The science and
impacts of a superstorm, Weatherwise, 66, 14–23, 2013.
Haylock, M. R.: European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2847–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2847-2011, 2011.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Horányi, A., Sabater, J. M.,
Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., and Soci, C.: Global
reanalysis: goodbye ERA-Interim, hello ERA5, ECMWF Newsl., 159, 17–24, 2019.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., and Schepers, D.:
The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, 2020.
Hewson, T. D. and Neu, U.: Cyclones, windstorms and the IMILAST project,
Tellus A., 67, 27128, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27128, 2015.
Hirsch, M. E., DeGaetano, A. T., and Colucci, S. J.: An East Coast winter
storm climatology, J. Climate, 14, 882–899, 2001.
Hobbs, P. V., Locatelli, J. D., and Martin, J. E.: A new conceptual model
for cyclones generated in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 1169–1178, 1996.
Hodges, K. I., Lee, R. W., and Bengtsson, L.: A Comparison of Extratropical
Cyclones in Recent Reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and
JRA-25, J. Climate, 24, 4888–4906, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4097.1, 2011.
Hoskins, B. J.: Theory of extratropical cyclones, in: Extratropical
Cyclones, edited by: Newton, C. W. and Holopainen, E. O., American
Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, American Meteorological Society, Boston,
MA, ISBN 978-1-944970-33-8, 63–80, 1990.
Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I.: New perspectives on the Northern
Hemisphere winter storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59,
1041-1061, 2002.
Huo, Z., Zhang, D.-L., Gyakum, J., and Staniforth, A.: A diagnostic analysis
of the superstorm of March 1993, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 1740–1761,
1995.
Jeong, D. I., Cannon, A. J., and Zhang, X.: Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 857–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-857-2019, 2019.
Jourdier, B.: Evaluation of ERA5, MERRA-2, COSMO-REA6, NEWA and AROME to
simulate wind power production over France, Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 63–77, 2020.
Kalverla, P. C., Duncan Jr., J. B., Steeneveld, G.-J., and Holtslag, A. A. M.: Low-level jets over the North Sea based on ERA5 and observations: together they do better, Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 193–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-193-2019, 2019.
Kalverla, P. C., Holtslag, A. A. M., Ronda, R. J., and Steeneveld, G.-J.: Quality of wind characteristics in recent wind atlases over the North Sea, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1498–1515, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3748, 2020.
Kitzmiller, D., Miller, D., Fulton, R., and Ding, F.: Radar and multisensor
precipitation estimation techniques in National Weather Service hydrologic
operations, J. Hydrol. Eng., 18, 133–142, 2013.
Klawa, M. and Ulbrich, U.: A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 725–732, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-725-2003, 2003.
Konisky, D. M., Hughes, L., and Kaylor, C. H.: Extreme weather events and
climate change concern, Climatic Change, 134, 533–547,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1555-3, 2016.
Krajewski, W. and Smith, J. A.: Radar hydrology: rainfall estimation,
Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1387–1394, 2002.
Kreibich, H., Van Den Bergh, J. C., Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., Ciavola, P.,
Green, C., Hallegatte, S., Logar, I., Meyer, V., and Schwarze, R.: Costing
natural hazards, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 303–306, 2014.
Lackmann, G. M.: Hurricane Sandy before 1900 and after 2100, B. Am Meteorol. Soc., 96, 547–560, 2015.
Lamb, H.: Historic Storms of the North Sea, British Isles and Northwest
Europe, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, ISBN 978-0521619318, 228 pp., 1991.
Lareau, N. P. and Horel, J. D.: The climatology of synoptic-scale ascent
over western North America: A perspective on storm tracks, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 1761–1778, 2012.
Larsén, X. G., Ott, S., Badger, J., Hahmann, A. N., and Mann, J.:
Recipes for correcting the impact of effective mesoscale resolution on the
estimation of extreme winds, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol.,
51, 521–533, 2012.
Letson, F., Barthelmie, R. J., and Pryor, S. C.: Radar-derived precipitation climatology for wind turbine blade leading edge erosion, Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, 2020.
Li, F., Chavas, D. R., Reed, K. A., and Dawson II, D. T.: Climatology of
severe local storm environments and synoptic-scale features over North
America in ERA5 reanalysis and CAM6 simulation, J. Climate, 33,
8339–8365, 2020.
Lopez, P.: Direct 4D-Var assimilation of NCEP stage IV radar and gauge
precipitation data at ECMWF, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2098–2116, 2011.
Lukens, K. E., Berbery, E. H., and Hodges, K. I.: The imprint of
strong-storm tracks on winter weather in North America, J. Climate,
31, 2057–2074, 2018.
Ma, C.-G. and Chang, E. K.: Impacts of Storm-Track Variations on Wintertime
Extreme Weather Events over the Continental United States, J. Climate, 30, 4601–4624, 2017.
Mailier, P. J., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A., and Hodges, K. I.: Serial
clustering of extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 134,
2224–2240, 2006.
Mann, J., Kristensen, L., and Jensen, N. O.: Uncertainties of extreme winds,
spectra, and coherences, in: Bridge Aerodynamics, edited by: Larsen, A. and
Esdahl, S., Balkerna, Rotterdam, 49–56, 1998.
Marchigiani, R., Gordy, S., Cipolla, J., Adams, R. C., Evans, D. C., Stehly,
C., Galwankar, S., Russell, S., Marco, A. P., and Kman, N.: Wind disasters:
A comprehensive review of current management strategies, International
journal of critical illness and injury science, 3, 130–142, https://doi.org/10.4103/2229-5151.114273, 2013.
Mills, E. and Jones, R. B.: An insurance perspective on US electric grid
disruption costs, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and
Practice, 41, 555–586, 2016.
Minola, L., Zhang, F., Azorín-Molina, C., Safaei Pirooz, A. A., Flay,
R., Hersbach, H., and Chen, D.: Near-surface mean and gust wind speeds in
ERA5 across Sweden: towards an improved gust parametrization, Clim.
Dynam., 55, 887–907, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05302-6, 2020.
Munsell, E. B. and Zhang, F.: Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy
(2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and
forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 38–58, 2014.
Nadolski, V.: Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) user's guide, available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/asos/pdfs/aum-toc.pdf (last access: 5 January 2018), 1998.
NCDC: Radar Data, available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/radar-data, last access: 6 June 2021.
NCEI: Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS), available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/automated-surface-observing-system-asos, last access: 6 June 2021a.
NCEI: Storm Events Database, available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/, last access: 6 June 2021b.
Nelli, N. R., Temimi, M., Fonseca, R. M., Weston, M. J., Thota, M. S.,
Valappil, V. K., Branch, O., Wulfmeyer, V., Wehbe, Y., and Al Hosary, T.:
Impact of roughness length on WRF simulated land-atmosphere interactions
over a hyper-arid region, Earth and Space Science, 7, e2020EA001165,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001165, 2020.
NOAA: First Ice, Last Ice, and Ice Duration, available at: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/atlas/ice_duration/duration.html, last access: 6 June 2021.
Nyce, C., Dumm, R. E., Sirmans, G. S., and Smersh, G.: The capitalization of
insurance premiums in house prices, J. Risk Insur., 82,
891–919, 2015.
Olauson, J.: ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling?, Renew.
Energ., 126, 322–331, 2018.
Pielke, R. A. and Landsea, C. W.: Normalized hurricane damages in the
United States: 1925–95, Weather Forecast., 13, 621–631, 1998.
Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S., Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Karremann, M.
K., and Shaffrey, L. C.: Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical
cyclones to the choice of tracking method, Tellus A, 68, 32204, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204, 2016.
Pryor, S. C., Barthelmie, R. J., Young, D. T., Takle, E. S., Arritt, R. W.,
Flory, D., Gutowski, W. J., Nunes, A., and Roads, J.: Wind speed trends over
the contiguous United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
114, D14105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011416, 2009.
Pryor, S. C., Barthelmie, R. J., Clausen, N., Drews, M., MacKellar, N., and
Kjellström, E.: Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind
speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios, Clim.
Dynam., 38, 189–208, 2012.
Pryor, S. C., Shepherd, T. J., Bukovsky, M., and Barthelmie, R. J.:
Assessing the stability of wind resource and operating conditions, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 1452, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1452/1/012084, 2020.
Ramon, J., Lledó, L., Torralba, V., Soret, A., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.:
What global reanalysis best represents near-surface winds?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 3236–3251, 2019.
Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E., and Youngman, B. D.: The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014.
Sadegh, M., Moftakhari, H., Gupta, H. V., Ragno, E., Mazdiyasni, O.,
Sanders, B., Matthew, R., and AghaKouchak, A.: Multihazard scenarios for
analysis of compound extreme events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45,
5470–5480, 2018.
Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Baker,
A. J., and Bhatia, K. T.: How Important are Post-Tropical Cyclones for
European Windstorm Risk?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089853, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089853, 2020.
Schmitt IV, C. V.: A quality control algorithm for the ASOS ice free wind
sensor, Preprints, 13th Conf. on Integrated Observing and Assimilation
Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor.
Soc. A, 12, 1–5, 2009.
SEDAC: U.S. Census Grids: available at: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/usgrid, last access: 10 September 2020.
Seo, B.-C., Dolan, B., Krajewski, W. F., Rutledge, S. A., and Petersen, W.:
Comparison of single-and dual-polarization–based rainfall estimates using
NEXRAD data for the NASA Iowa Flood Studies project, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 1658–1675, 2015.
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S.,
Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., and Martius, O.:
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical
aspects of climate change, Climatic change, 151, 555–571, 2018.
Sinclair, M. R.: An objective cyclone climatology for the Southern
Hemisphere, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 2239–2256, 1994.
Sinh, H. N., Lombardo, F. T., Letchford, C. W., and Rosowsky, D. V.:
Characterization of Joint Wind and Ice Hazard in Midwestern United States,
Nat. Hazards Rev., 17, 04016004, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000221, 2016.
Skamarock, W. C.: Evaluating mesoscale NWP models using kinetic energy
spectra, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 3019–3032, 2004.
Smith, A. B. and Matthews, J. L.: Quantifying uncertainty and variable
sensitivity within the US billion-dollar weather and climate disaster cost
estimates, Nat. Hazards, 77, 1829–1851, 2015.
Smith, J. B.: The potential impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 72, 21–28, 1991.
Stephenson, D. B.: Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and
climate events, in: Climate extremes and society, edited by: Diaz, H. F.
and Murnane, R. J., Cambridge University Press, 11–23, Cambridge, England, 2008.
Straka, J. M., Zrnić, D. S., and Ryzhkov, A. V.: Bulk hydrometeor
classification and quantification using polarimetric radar data: Synthesis
of relations, J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 1341–1372, 2000.
Sun, C. and Liang, X.-Z.: Improving US extreme precipitation simulation:
sensitivity to physics parameterizations, Clim. Dynam., 54, 4891–4918,
2020.
Tarek, M., Brissette, F. P., and Arsenault, R.: Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis as a potential reference dataset for hydrological modelling over North America, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2527–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2527-2020, 2020.
Thomas, B. C. and Martin, J. E.: A synoptic climatology and composite
analysis of the Alberta clipper, Weather Forecast., 22, 315–333,
https://doi.org/10.1175/waf982.1, 2007.
Tokay, A., Bashor, P. G., and McDowell, V. L.: Comparison of rain gauge
measurements in the mid-Atlantic region, J. Hydrometeorol., 11,
553–565, 2010.
Trapp, R. J., Wheatley, D. M., Atkins, N. T., Przybylinski, R. W., and Wolf,
R.: Buyer beware: Some words of caution on the use of severe wind reports in
postevent assessment and research, Weather Forecast., 21, 408–415,
2006.
U.S. Census Bureau: State Population Totals and Components of Change:
2010–2019, available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html (last access: 10 September 2020), 2019.
Ulbrich, U., Fink, A., Klawa, M., and Pinto, J. G.: Three extreme storms
over Europe in December 1999, Weather, 56, 70–80, 2001.
Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C., and Pinto, J. G.: Extra-tropical cyclones in
the present and future climate: a review, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8, 2009.
USGCRP: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National
Climate Assessment, Volume II, U.S. Global Change Research Program,
Washington, DC, USA, 2018.
Varlas, G., Papadopoulos, A., and Katsafados, P.: An analysis of the
synoptic and dynamical characteristics of hurricane Sandy (2012),
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 131, 443–453, 2019.
Villarini, G. and Krajewski, W. F.: Review of the different sources of
uncertainty in single polarization radar-based estimates of rainfall,
Surv. Geophys., 31, 107–129, 2010.
Villarini, G., Mandapaka, P. V., Krajewski, W. F., and Moore, R. J.:
Rainfall and sampling uncertainties: A rain gauge perspective, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D11102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009214, 2008.
Vose, R. S., Applequist, S., Bourassa, M. A., Pryor, S. C., Barthelmie, R.
J., Blanton, B., Bromirski, P. D., Brooks, H. E., DeGaetano, A. T., and
Dole, R. M.: Monitoring and understanding changes in extremes: Extratropical
storms, winds, and waves, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
95, 377–386, 2014.
Walz, M. A., Kruschke, T., Rust, H. W., Ulbrich, U., and Leckebusch, G. C.:
Quantifying the extremity of windstorms for regions featuring infrequent
events, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 18, 315–322, 2017.
Walz, M. A., Befort, D. J., Kirchner-Bossi, N. O., Ulbrich, U., and
Leckebusch, G. C.: Modelling serial clustering and inter-annual variability
of European winter windstorms based on large-scale drivers, Int.
J. Climatol., 38, 3044–3057, 2018.
Wan, H., Wang, X. L., and Swail, V. R.: Homogenization and Trend Analysis of
Canadian Near-Surface Wind Speeds, J. Climate, 23, 1209–1225,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3200.1, 2010.
Wang, H. V., Loftis, J. D., Liu, Z., Forrest, D., and Zhang, J.: The storm
surge and sub-grid inundation modeling in New York City during Hurricane
Sandy, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2, 226–246, 2014.
Wanik, D., Anagnostou, E., Hartman, B., Frediani, M., and Astitha, M.: Storm
outage modeling for an electric distribution network in Northeastern USA,
Nat. Hazards, 79, 1359–1384, 2015.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, International
geophysics series, Academic Press, Oxford, UK, ISBN: 9780123850225, 2011a.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Academic
press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2011b.
Xian, S., Lin, N., and Hatzikyriakou, A.: Storm surge damage to residential
areas: a quantitative analysis for Hurricane Sandy in comparison with FEMA
flood map, Nat. Hazards, 79, 1867–1888, 2015.
Xiao, C., Lofgren, B. M., and Wang, J.: WRF-based assessment of the Great Lakes' impact on cold season synoptic cyclones,
Atmos. Res., 214, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.07.020, 2018.
Young, A. M., Skelly, K. T., and Cordeira, J. M.: High-impact hydrologic
events and atmospheric rivers in California: An investigation using the NCEI
Storm Events Database, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3393–3401,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl073077, 2017.
Young, G. S. and Kristensen, L.: Surface-layer gusts for aircraft
operation, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 59, 231–242, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00119814,
1992.
Zielinski, G. A.: A classification scheme for winter storms in the eastern
and central United States with an emphasis on nor'easters, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 37–52, 2002.
Zoraghein, H. and O'Neill, B. C.: US State-level Projections of the Spatial
Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,
Sustainability, 12, 3374, https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083374, 2020.
Zscheischler, J., Westra, S., Van Den Hurk, B. J., Seneviratne, S. I., Ward,
P. J., Pitman, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bresch, D. N., Leonard, M., and Wahl,
T.: Future climate risk from compound events, Nat. Clim. Change, 8,
469–477, 2018.
Short summary
Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high-population-density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but have intensities 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint