Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
18 Jan 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 18 Jan 2021
| 18 Jan 2021
A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline
Linda van Garderen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Coastal Research – Analysis and Modelling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Frauke Feser
Institute for Coastal Research – Analysis and Modelling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Theodore G. Shepherd
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB,
United Kingdom
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37 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Heat Waves: Physical Understanding and Scientific Challenges D. Barriopedro et al. 10.1029/2022RG000780
- A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events A. Bastos et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277
- Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability N. Leach et al. 10.1073/pnas.2112087118
- Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event W. Chan et al. 10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
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- ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate D. Faranda et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024
- North Atlantic Winter Storm Activity in Modern Reanalyses and Pressure-Based Observations F. Feser et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0529.1
- Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science E. Baulenas et al. 10.1002/gch2.202200183
- A storyline attribution of the 2011/2012 drought in Southeastern South America L. van Garderen & J. Mindlin 10.1002/wea.4185
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science H. Thorén et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03263-1
- Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review M. Baldissera Pacchetti et al. 10.1002/wcc.869
- Large‐Scale Drivers of Persistent Extreme Weather During Early Summer 2021 in Europe A. Tuel et al. 10.1029/2022GL099624
- Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought E. Bevacqua et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2
- Ethics of Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Change Science: A Critique L. Olsson et al. 10.1029/2021EF002258
- Foundations of attribution in climate-change science E. Lloyd & T. Shepherd 10.1088/2752-5295/aceea1
- Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean M. Athanase et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1
- Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines E. Lloyd & T. Shepherd 10.1007/s10584-021-03177-y
- How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines M. Athanase et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0
- Factor analysis of recent major heatwaves in East Asia A. Yoon et al. 10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101730
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- The roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in UK surface climate D. Fereday & J. Knight 10.1002/asl.1139
- The July 2019 European Heat Wave in a Warmer Climate: Storyline Scenarios with a Coupled Model Using Spectral Nudging A. Sánchez-Benítez et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0573.1
- Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science T. Shepherd 10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6
- A dynamical adjustment perspective on extreme event attribution L. Terray 10.5194/wcd-2-971-2021
- Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events B. van den Hurk et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500
- Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts N. Leach et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7
- ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world E. Hawkins et al. 10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
- Forschungsergebnisse zum Hochwasser-Pass aus internationalen Projekten und Potenzial für Deutschland P. Meier et al. 10.1007/s35152-023-1431-9
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change P. Ludwig et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
- An Updated Review of Event Attribution Approaches C. Qian et al. 10.1007/s13351-022-1192-5
- Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines H. Goulart et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024
37 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review L. Kautz et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022
- Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074
- Heat Waves: Physical Understanding and Scientific Challenges D. Barriopedro et al. 10.1029/2022RG000780
- A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events A. Bastos et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277
- Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability N. Leach et al. 10.1073/pnas.2112087118
- Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event W. Chan et al. 10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
- Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event J. Wang et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi2714
- ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate D. Faranda et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024
- North Atlantic Winter Storm Activity in Modern Reanalyses and Pressure-Based Observations F. Feser et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0529.1
- Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science E. Baulenas et al. 10.1002/gch2.202200183
- A storyline attribution of the 2011/2012 drought in Southeastern South America L. van Garderen & J. Mindlin 10.1002/wea.4185
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science H. Thorén et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03263-1
- Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review M. Baldissera Pacchetti et al. 10.1002/wcc.869
- Large‐Scale Drivers of Persistent Extreme Weather During Early Summer 2021 in Europe A. Tuel et al. 10.1029/2022GL099624
- Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought E. Bevacqua et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2
- Ethics of Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Change Science: A Critique L. Olsson et al. 10.1029/2021EF002258
- Foundations of attribution in climate-change science E. Lloyd & T. Shepherd 10.1088/2752-5295/aceea1
- Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean M. Athanase et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1
- Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines E. Lloyd & T. Shepherd 10.1007/s10584-021-03177-y
- How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines M. Athanase et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0
- Factor analysis of recent major heatwaves in East Asia A. Yoon et al. 10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101730
- Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition F. Pithan et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023
- A 40-year climatology of air temperature extremes in the southern Balkans based on the ERA5 database C. Lolis et al. 10.1007/s00704-022-04053-0
- Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1455023
- The roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in UK surface climate D. Fereday & J. Knight 10.1002/asl.1139
- The July 2019 European Heat Wave in a Warmer Climate: Storyline Scenarios with a Coupled Model Using Spectral Nudging A. Sánchez-Benítez et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0573.1
- Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science T. Shepherd 10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6
- A dynamical adjustment perspective on extreme event attribution L. Terray 10.5194/wcd-2-971-2021
- Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events B. van den Hurk et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500
- Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts N. Leach et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7
- ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world E. Hawkins et al. 10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
- Forschungsergebnisse zum Hochwasser-Pass aus internationalen Projekten und Potenzial für Deutschland P. Meier et al. 10.1007/s35152-023-1431-9
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change P. Ludwig et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
- An Updated Review of Event Attribution Approaches C. Qian et al. 10.1007/s13351-022-1192-5
- Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines H. Goulart et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024
Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
The storyline method is used to quantify the effect of climate change on a particular extreme weather event using a global atmospheric model by simulating the event with and without climate change. We present the method and its successful application for the climate change signals of the European 2003 and the Russian 2010 heatwaves.
The storyline method is used to quantify the effect of climate change on a particular extreme...
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