Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 19 Mar 2021
| 19 Mar 2021
Wet and dry spells in Senegal: comparison of detection based on satellite products, reanalysis, and in situ estimates
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère et de l'Océan Siméon Fongang (LPAOSF), École Supérieure Polytechnique (ESP), Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
Christophe Lavaysse
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement IGE, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP, 38000 Grenoble, France
Mamadou Simina Drame
Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère et de l'Océan Siméon Fongang (LPAOSF), École Supérieure Polytechnique (ESP), Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
Geremy Panthou
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement IGE, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP, 38000 Grenoble, France
Amadou Thierno Gaye
Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère et de l'Océan Siméon Fongang (LPAOSF), École Supérieure Polytechnique (ESP), Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
Related authors
No articles found.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-144, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves (HWs) at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses. The forecast models show significant skills in predicting HWs days compared to a baseline climatology upon two weeks lead time. We find that nighttime HWs are more predictable than daytime HWs.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.
Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Lala Kounta, Xavier Capet, Julien Jouanno, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Bamol Sow, and Amadou Thierno Gaye
Ocean Sci., 14, 971–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-971-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The currents along the West African seaboard are poorly known. Based on a carefully evaluated numerical simulation the present study describes these currents in the sector 8–20°N and the physical processes that drive them. Prevailing northward flow with two intensification periods per year is identified. Both local and distant coastal winds (blowing as far as thousands of kilometers away in the Gulf of Guinea) contribute to the circulation in this sector.
Youssouph Sane, Geremy Panthou, Ansoumana Bodian, Theo Vischel, Thierry Lebel, Honore Dacosta, Guillaume Quantin, Catherine Wilcox, Ousmane Ndiaye, Aida Diongue-Niang, and Mariane Diop Kane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1849–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1849-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Urbanization, resulting from a sharply increasing demographic pressure and the development of infrastructure, has made the population of many tropical areas more vulnerable to extreme rainfall hazards. Characterizing extreme rainfall distribution is thus becoming an overarching need in hydrological applications. Using 14 tipping-bucket rain-gauge series, this study provides IDF curves and uncertainties over Senegal. Climate change requires warning end-users that they should be used with care.
Christophe Lavaysse, Carmelo Cammalleri, Alessandro Dosio, Gerard van der Schrier, Andrea Toreti, and Jürgen Vogt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-temperature anomalies such as heat and cold waves may have strong impacts on human activities and health. Providing a robust operational system to monitor extreme-temperature anomalies in Europe, developed and validated in this study, is thus of prime importance. This work exposes the methodology and the climatology of these events. It also discusses the associated uncertainties according to the datasets and the methods used.
Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Adrien Deroubaix, Eleanor Morris, Flore Tocquer, Mat J. Evans, Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Christophe Lavaysse, Celine Mari, John H. Marsham, Rémi Meynadier, Abalo Affo-Dogo, Titike Bahaga, Fabien Brosse, Konrad Deetz, Ridha Guebsi, Issaou Latifou, Marlon Maranan, Philip D. Rosenberg, and Andreas Schlueter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10893–10918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In June–July 2016 DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa), a large, EU-funded European–African project, organised an international field campaign in densely populated southern West Africa, including measurements from ground sites, research aircraft, weather balloons and urban sites. This paper gives an overview of the atmospheric evolution during this period focusing on meteorological (precipitation, cloudiness, winds) and composition (gases, particles) aspects.
Habib Senghor, Éric Machu, Frédéric Hourdin, and Amadou Thierno Gaye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8395–8410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8395-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8395-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work focus on the distribution of dust particles emitted in western Africa and having consequences on human health and marine ecosystems. The understanding of their fate requires a better understanding of the processes governing their variability. Using satellite observations and ground measurements, we present the seasonality of their distribution and explain the processes responsible for this distribution as well as their transition from the African continent towards the Atlantic Ocean.
C. Lavaysse, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3273–3286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the predictability of meteorological droughts over Europe 1 month in advance using ensemble prediction systems.
It has been shown that, on average and using the most relevant method, 40 % of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted, with less than 25 % false alarms.
This study is a reference for other studies that are motivated to improving the drought forecasting.
G. Panthou, T. Vischel, T. Lebel, G. Quantin, and G. Molinié
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5093–5107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
The role of citizen science to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID Lightning Location System
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: Climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: The roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Aircraft Engine Dust Ingestion at Global Airports
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research analyzes the meteo-hydrological features of August 27th and 28th 2023 event occurred in Genoa city. Rainfall observations were taken using either official or rain gauge networks based on citizen science. The combined analysis highlights a spatial variability of the precipitations, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of the authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over sub-hourly duration are significant.
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveils distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. Daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed that they were beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe weather forecast and warning need to advance to trigger our imagination of what might be about to happen and start preparing.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level PV anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptical analysis.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops (wheat, maize, barley, rapeseed) and grapevines after a hailstorm. Using radar, agricultural land use data, and damage reports, it finds that the model performs best in the main production areas and at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevines. It also highlights the trade-offs in selecting suitable hail size thresholds for modeling, which eventually depends on user needs and cost considerations.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite cloud top detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports, is presented. Hail likelihood peaks in central summer at 15 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to a previous estimate. Separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large hail occurrence is found.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed by Arctic cyclones to ships has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks and shipping incident reports, to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggests that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships, and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Claire L. Ryder, Clèment Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-662, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft because flying through it can cause engine components to degrade faster than they would otherwise. Here we quantify how much dust gets ingested into aircraft engines at worldwide airports. We find that Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. We show that dust ingestion can be reduced by changing the time of day of flights and the altitude of holding patterns.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Cited articles
Alhassane, A., Salack, S., Ly, M., Lona, I., Traore, S., and Sarr, B.: Evolution of agro-climatic risks related to the recent trends of the rainfall regime over the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa, Sci. Changem. Planet., 24, 282–293, https://doi.org/10.1684/sec.2013.0400, 2013. a
Ali, A., Amani, A., Diedhiou, A., and Lebel, T.: Rainfall Estimation in the Sahel. Part II: Evaluation of Rain Gauge Networks in the CILSS Countries and Objective Intercomparison of Rainfall Products, J. Appl. Meteorol., 44, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2305.1, 2005. a
ARC: Risk Pool I, available at: https://www.africanriskcapacity.org/impact/ (last access: 28 January 2021), 2014. a
Barring, L., Holt, T., Linderson, M.-L., Radziejewski, M., Moriondo, M., and Palutikof, J.: Defining dry wet spells for point observations, observed area averages, and regional climate model gridboxes in Europe, Clim. Res., 31, 35–49, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr031035, 2006. a
Beck, H. E., Pan, M., Roy, T., Weedon, G. P., Pappenberger, F., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., and Wood, E. F.: Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, 2019. a
Bergès, J. C., Jobard, I., Chopin, F., and Roca, R.: EPSAT-SG: a satellite method for precipitation estimation; its concepts and implementation for the AMMA experiment, Ann. Geophys., 28, 289–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-28-289-2010, 2010. a
Berthou, S., Rowell, D. P., Kendon, E. J., Roberts, M. J., Stratton, R. A., Crook, J. A., and Wilcox, C.: Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1991–2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04759-4, 2019. a
Bilonick, R.: An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics, Technometrics, 33, 483–485, https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1991.10484886, 2012. a
Bruster-Flores, J. L., Ortiz-Gómez, R., Ferriño-Fierro, A. L., Guerra-Cobián, V. H., Burgos-Flores, D., and Lizárraga-Mendiola, L. G.: Evaluation of Precipitation Estimates CMORPH-CRT on Regions of Mexico with Different Climates, Water, 11, 1722, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081722, 2019. a
Chen, Y.-C., Wei, C., and Yeh, H.-C.: Rainfall network design using kriging and entropy, Hydrol. Process., 22, 340–346, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6292, 2008. a
Cressie, N.: Block Kriging for Lognormal Spatial Processes, Math. Geol., 38, 413–443, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-005-9022-8, 2006. a
Creutin, J. and Obled, C.: Objective Analyses and Mapping Techniques for Rainfall Fields: An Objective Comparison, Water Resour. Res., 18, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i002p00413, 1982. a
Da, J., Jale, S., Fernando, S., Junior, S. F., Fialho, E., Xavier, M., Stosic, T., Stosic, B., Alessandro, T., and Ferreira, E.: Application of Markov chain on daily rainfall data in Paraíba-Brazil from 1995–2015, Acta Sci. Technol., 41, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v41i1.37186, 2019. a
Descroix, L., Diongue Niang, A., Panthou, G., Bodian, A., Sane, Y., Dacosta, H., Malam Abdou, M., Vandervaere, J.-P., and Quantin, G.: Évolution récente de la pluviométrie en Afrique de l'ouest à travers deux régions: la Sénégambie et le Bassin du Niger Moyen, Climatologie, 12, 25–43, https://doi.org/10.4267/climatologie.1105, 2016. a
Diallo, I., Giorgi, F., Deme, A., Tall, M., Mariotti, L., and Gaye, A.: Projected changes of summer monsoon extremes and hydroclimatic regimes over West Africa for the twenty-first century, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3931–3954, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3052-4, 2016. a
Diedhiou, A., Janicot, S., Viltard, A., and Felice, P.: Evidence of two regimes of easterly waves over West Africa and tropical Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2805–2808, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL02152, 1998. a
Dieng, O., Roucou, P., and Louvet, S.: Variabilité intra-saisonnière des précipitations au Sénégal (1951–1996), Sécheresse, 19,
87–93, 2008. a
Dinku, T., Ceccato, P., Grover-Kopec, E., Lemma, M., Connor, S. J., and Ropelewski, C. F.: Validation of satellite rainfall products over East Africa's complex topography, Int. J. Remote Sens., 28, 1503–1526, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160600954688, 2007. a
Dinku, T., Funk, C., Peterson, P., Maidment, R., Tadesse, T., Gadain, H., and Ceccato, P.: Validation of the CHIRPS Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Eastern of Africa: Validation of the CHIRPS Satellite Rainfall Estimates, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 292–312, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3244, 2018. a
Dione, C., Lothon, M., Daouda, B., Campistron, B., Couvreux, F., Guichard, F., and Sall, S. M.: Phenomenology of Sahelian convection observed in Niamey during the early monsoon, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 500–516, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2149, 2014. a
Ebert, E., Janowiak, J., and Kidd, C.: Comparison of Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimates From Satellite Observations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 47–64, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-1-47, 2007. a
Engel, T., Fink, A. H., Knippertz, P., Pante, G., and Bliefernicht, J.: Extreme Precipitation in the West African Cities of Dakar and Ouagadougou: Atmospheric Dynamics and Implications for Flood Risk Assessments, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 2937–2957, 2017. a
Ferraro, R.: SSM/I derived global rainfall estimates for climatological applications, J. Geophys. Res., 1021, 16715–16736, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01210, 1997. a
Ferraro, R. and Li, Q.: Detailed analysis of the error associated with the rainfall retrieved by the NOAA/NESDIS Special Sensor Microwave/Imager algorithm 2. Rainfall over land, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4680, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001172, 2002. a
Fowe, T., Diarra, a., Kabore, R., Ibrahim, B., BOLOGO/TRAORE, M., TRAORE, K., and Karambiri, H.: Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of West African Sahel: The case of the Ouagadougou area in Burkina Faso, J. Flood Risk Manage., 12, e12507, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12507, 2018. a
Frei, C., Christensen, J., Deque, M., Jacob, D., Jones, R., and Vidale, P.: Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: Evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4124, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002287, 2003. a
Froidurot, S. and Diedhiou, A.: Characteristics of Wet and Dry Spells in the West African Monsoon System, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 18, 125–131, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.734, 2017. a, b
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – A new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015. a
Gaye, A. T., Fongang, S., Garba, A., and Badiane, D.: Etude des pluies de Heug sur le Senegal a l'aide de donnees conventionnelles et imagerie Meteosat (Study of Heug rainfall in Senegal using conventional data and Meteosat imagery), Veille Climatique Satellitaire, 61–71, available at: http://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:41383 (last access: 19 November 2020), 1994. a
Giorgi, F., Im, E.-S., Coppola, E., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Gao, X. J., Mariotti, L., and Shi, Y.: Higher Hydroclimatic Intensity with Global Warming, J. Climate, 24, 5309–5324, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3979.1, 2011. a, b
Goovaerts, P.: Geostatistical Approaches for Incorporating Elevation Into the Spatial Interpolation of Rainfall, J. Hydrol., 228, 113–129, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0116-0, 2000. a
Grodsky, S. and Carton, J.: Coupled land/atmosphere interactions in the West African Monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1503–1506, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012601, 2001. a
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1, 2006. a
Huffman, G., Adler, R., Bolvin, D., Gu, G., Nelkin, E., Bowman, K., Stocker, E., and Wolff, D.: The TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis: Quasi-global, multi-year, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scale, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 28–55, 2007. a
Jobart, I., Chopin, F., Berges, J., and Roca, R.: An intercomparison of 10 days satellite products during West African Monsoon, Int. J. Remote Sens.,
32, 2353–2376, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161003698286, 2011. a
Joyce, R., Janowiak, J., Arkin, P., and Xie, P.: CMORPH: A Method That Produces Global Precipitation Estimates From Passive Microwave and Infrared Data at High Spatial and Temporal Resolution, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 487–503, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0487:CAMTPG>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Kendon, E. J., Stratton, R. A., Marsham, J. H., Berthou, S., and Rowell, David P., and Senior, C. A.: Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale, Nat. Commun., 10, 2041–1723, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9, 2019. a
Kummerow, C., Barnes, W., Kozu, T., Shiue, J., and Simpson, J.: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package, J. Atmos. Ocean Tech., 15, 809–817, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(1998)015<0809:TTRMMT>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a, b
Lafore, J.-P., Beucher, F., Peyrillé, P., Diongue-Niang, A., Chapelon, N., Bouniol, D., Caniaux, G., Favot, F., Ferry, F., Guichard, F., Poan, D., Roehrig, R., and Vischel, T.: A multi-scale analysis of the extreme rain event of Ouagadougou in 2009, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 3094–3109, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3165, 2017. a
Le Barbé, L., Lebel, T., and Tapsoba, D.: Rainfall Variability in West Africa during the Years 1950–90, J. Climate, 15, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0187:RVIWAD>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Lebel, T. and Ali, A.: Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990–2007), J. Hydrol., 375, 52–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030, 2009. a
Le Coz, C. and van de Giesen, N.: Comparison of Rainfall Products over Sub-Saharan Africa, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 4, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0256.1, 2019. a
Lloyd, C. and Atkinson, P.: Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates with Ordinary and Indicator Kriging, Comput. Geosci., 27, 929–937, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0098-3004(00)00132-1, 2001. a, b
Maidment, R., Grimes, D., Allan, R., Greatrex, H., Rojas, O., and Leo, O.: Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda, Meteorol. Appl., 20, 714, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1283, 2013. a, b
Maidment, R., Grimes, D., Black, E., Tarnavsky, E., Young, M., Greatrex, H., Allan, R., Stein, T., Nkonde, E., Senkunda, S., and Uribe, E.: A new, long-term daily satellite-based rainfall dataset for operational monitoring in Africa, Sci. Data, 4, 170063, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.63, 2017. a
Malardel, S., Wedi, N., Deconinck, W., Diamantakis, M., Kühnlein, C., Mozdzynski, G., Hamrud, M., and Smolarkiewicz, P.: A new grid for the IFS, ECMWF Newslett., 146, 23–28, 2016. a
Maranan, M., Fink, A., and Knippertz, P.: Rainfall types over southern West Africa: Objective identification, climatology and synoptic environment, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 1628–1648, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3345, 2018. a, b
Mounier, F. and Janicot, S.: Evidence of two independent modes of convection at intraseasonal timescale in the West African summer monsoon, Citation: Mounier, 31, 16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020665, 2004. a
Myers, D.: Multivariate geostatistics By Hans Wackernagel, Math. Geol., 29, 307–310, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02769635, 1997. a
Nesbitt, S. W., Cifelli, R., and Rutledge, S. A.: Storm Morphology and Rainfall Characteristics of TRMM Precipitation Features, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2702–2721, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3200.1, 2006. a
Nicholson, S.: The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability, ISRN Meteorol., 2013, 453521, https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/453521, 2013. a
Nicholson, S., Fink, A., and Funk, C.: Assessing recovery and change in West Africa's rainfall regime from a 161-year record, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 3770–3786, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5530, 2018. a
Panthou, G., Vischel, T., and Lebel, T.: Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3998–4006, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3984, 2014. a
Panthou, G., Lebel, T., Vischel, T., Quantin, G., Sane, Y., Abdramane, B., Ndiaye, O., Diongue Niang, A., and Diopkane, M.: Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: The Sahelian case, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 064013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac334, 2018. a
Parker, W.: Reanalyses and Observations: What's the Difference?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 160128144638003, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00226.1, 2016. a
Sagna, P., Ndiaye, O., Diop, C., Diongue-Niang, A., and Corneille, S.: Are recent climate variations observed in Senegal in conformity with the descriptions given by the IPCC scenarios?, available at: http://lodel.irevues.inist.fr/pollution-atmospherique/index.php?id=5320 (last access: 18 March 2021), 2015. a
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Pan, H.-L., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Kistler, R., Woollen, J., Behringer, D., Liu, H., Stokes, D., Grumbine, R., Gayno, G., Wang, J., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H.-Y., Juang, H.-M., Sela, J., and Goldberg, M.: The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1015–1057, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1, 2010. a
Salack, S., Giannini, A., Diakhate, M., Gaye, A., and Muller, B.: Oceanic influence on the sub-seasonal to interannual timing and frequency of extreme dry spells over the West African Sahel, Clim. Dynam., 42, 189–201, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1673-4, 2013. a, b
Salack, S., Klein, C., Giannini, A., Sarr, B., Worou, N., Belko, N., Bliefernicht, J., and Kunstman, H.: Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 104008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/104008, 2016. a
Salack, S., Saley, I. A., Lawson, N. Z., Zabré, I., and Daku, E. K.: Scales for rating heavy rainfall events in the West African Sahel, Weather Clim. Extrem., 21, 36–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.05.004, 2018. a
Sane, Y., Panthou, G., Bodian, A., Vischel, T., Lebel, T., Dacosta, H., Quantin, G., Wilcox, C., Ndiaye, O., Diongue-Niang, A., and Diop Kane, M.: Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) rainfall curves in Senegal, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1849–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1849-2018, 2018. a
Sarr, B.: Present and future climate change in the semi-arid region of West Africa: A crucial input for practical adaptation in agriculture, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 13, 108–112, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.368, 2012. a
Seck, A.: Le “Heug” ou pluie de saison sèche au Sénégal, Annales de Géographie, 385, 225–246, https://doi.org/10.3406/geo.1962.16196, 1962. a
Shuhong, W., Liu, J., Wang, J., Qiao, X., and Zhang, J.: Evaluation of GPM IMERG V05B and TRMM 3B42V7 Precipitation Products over High Mountainous Tributaries in Lhasa with Dense Rain Gauges, Remote Sens., 11, 2080, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11182080, 2019. a
Siegmund, J., Bliefernicht, J., Laux, P., and Kunstmann, H.: Toward a Seasonal Precipitation Prediction System for West Africa: Performance of CFSv2 and High Resolution Dynamical Downscaling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 7316–7339, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022692, 2015. a
Sivakumar, M.: Empirical analysis of dry spells for agricultural applications in west Africa, J. Climate, 24, 532–539, 1992. a
Tabios, G. and Salas, J.: A Comparative Analysis of Techniques for Spatial Interpolation of Precipitation, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 21, 365–380, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1985.tb00147.x, 1985. a
Taylor, C., Belušić, D., Guichard, F., Parker, D., Vischel, T., Bock, O., P. Harris, P., Janicot, S., Klein, C., and Panthou, G.: Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations, Nature, 544, 475–478, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22069, 2017. a, b
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183–7192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719, 2001. a
Thorne, V., Coakeley, P., Grimes, D., and Dugdale, G.: Comparison of TAMSAT and CPC Rainfall Estimates with rainfall, for southern Africa, Int. J. Remote Sens., 22, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160118816, 2001. a, b
Thuo, M., Bravo-Ureta, B., Obeng-Asiedu, K., and Hathie, I.: The Adoption of Agricultural Inputs by Smallholder Farmers: The Case of an Improved Groundnut Seed and Chemical Fertilizer in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin, J. Dev. Areas, 48, 61–82, https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2014.0014, 2014. a
Tian, Y., Peters-Lidard, C., Choudhury, B., and Garcia, M.: Multi-Temporal Analysis of TRMM-Based Satellite Precipitation Products for Land Data Assimilation Applications, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1165–1183, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM859.1, 2007. a
Trenberth, K. E.: Attribution of Climate Variations and Trends to Human Influences and Natural Variability, WIREs Clim. Change, 2, 925–930, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.142, 2011. a, b
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., M. Rasmussen, R., and Parsons, D.: The Changing Character of Precipitation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1217, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205, 2003. a
UCDP: UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia, Uppsala University, available at: https://www.ucdp.uu.se (last access: 19 November 2020), 2017. a
Washington, R., Harrison, M., Conway, D., Black, E., Challinor, A., Grimes, D., Jones, R., Morse, A., Kay, G., and Todd, M.: African Climate Change: Taking the Shorter Route, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1355–1366, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1355, 2006. a
Wei, C., Chiang, J.-L., Wey, T. H., Yeh, H., and Cheng, Y.: Rainfall Network Design using Entropy and Kriging Approach, Hydrol. Process., 11, 4927, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6292, 2009.
a
WFP: WFP Senegal Country Brief, January 2018, Senegal, available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/senegal/wfp-senegal-country-brief-january-2018
(last access: 19 November 2020), 2018. a
Wilcox, C., Vischel, T., Panthou, G., Bodian, A., Blanchet, J., Descroix, L., Quantin, G., Cassé, C., Tanimoun, B., and Kone, S.: Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and Niger Rivers, J. Hydrol., 566, 531–545, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.063, 2018. a
Wu, M.-L., Reale, O., and Schubert, S.: A Characterization of African Easterly Waves on 2.5–6-Day and 6–9-Day Time Scales, J. Climate, 26, 6750–6774, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00336.1, 2013. a
Xie, P., Joyce, R., Wu, S., Yoo, S.-H., Yarosh, Y., Sun, F., and Lin, R.: Reprocessed, Bias-Corrected CMORPH Global High-Resolution Precipitation Estimates from 1998, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1617–1641, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0168.1, 2017. a, b
Xu, F., Guo, B., Ye, B., Ye, Q., Chen, H., Ju, X., Jinyun, G., and Wang, Z.: Systematical Evaluation of GPM IMERG and TRMM 3B42V7 Precipitation Products in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China, Remote Sens., 11, 697, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11060697, 2019. a, b
Yeni, F. and Alpas, H.: Vulnerability of global food production to extreme climatic events, Food Res. Int., 96, 27–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2017.03.020, 2017. a
Young, H. R., Cornforth, R. J., Gaye, A. T., and Boyd, E.: Event Attribution science in adaptation decision-making: the context of extreme rainfall in urban Senegal, Clim. Dev., 11, 812–824, https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1571401, 2019. a
Zeweldi, D. and Gebremichael, M.: Evaluation of CMORPH Precipitation Products at Fine Space-Time Scales, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 300–307, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1041.1, 2009. a
Short summary
Extreme wet and dry rainfall periods over Senegal provided by satellite, reanalyses, and ground observations are compared. Despite a spatial coherence of seasonal rainfall accumulation between all products, discrepancies are found at intra-seasonal timescales. All datasets highlight comparable seasonal cycles of dry and wet spells. Nevertheless, CHIRPS and TAMSAT are close to observations for the dry spells, whereas TRMM obtains the closest values of wet spells as regards the observations.
Extreme wet and dry rainfall periods over Senegal provided by satellite, reanalyses, and ground...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint