Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 07 Feb 2020
| 07 Feb 2020
Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees
Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (IMFT), Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Arnau Amengual
Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les
Illes Balears, Palma, Majorca, Spain
Romu Romero
Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les
Illes Balears, Palma, Majorca, Spain
Ernest Bladé
Institut FLUMEN, E.T.S. d'Eng. De Camins, Canals i Ports de Barcelona, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
Marcos Sanz-Ramos
Institut FLUMEN, E.T.S. d'Eng. De Camins, Canals i Ports de Barcelona, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
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22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Enhancing a Real-Time Flash Flood Predictive Accuracy Approach for the Development of Early Warning Systems: Hydrological Ensemble Hindcasts and Parameterizations J. Trošelj et al. 10.3390/su151813897
- Beyond prediction: An integrated post-hoc approach to interpret complex model in hydrometeorology F. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105762
- Testing machine learning algorithms as post-processing tools for hydro-meteorological modelling over a small river basin C. Xu et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106592
- A Probabilistic Approach for Off-Stream Reservoir Failure Flood Hazard Assessment M. Sanz-Ramos et al. 10.3390/w15122202
- Ensemble forecasting system for the management of the Senegal River discharge: application upstream the Manantali dam D. Ndione et al. 10.1007/s13201-020-01199-y
- Flood Peaks and Geomorphic Processes in an Ephemeral Mediterranean Stream: Torrent de Sant Jordi (Pollença, Mallorca) M. Grimalt-Gelabert & J. Rosselló-Geli 10.3390/hydrology10070152
- Plathynes : une plateforme de modélisation hydrologique développée pour les besoins de la prévision des crues D. Narbais-Jaureguy et al. 10.1080/27678490.2024.2349548
- Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean A. Hermoso et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105571
- The sequence of heavy precipitation and flash flooding of 12 and 13 September 2019 in eastern Spain. Part II: A hydro-meteorological predictability analysis based on convection-permitting ensemble strategies A. Amengual et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0181.1
- Overview towards improved understanding of the mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in the western Mediterranean: lessons learned from HyMeX S. Khodayar et al. 10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021
- NRCS-CN Estimation from Onsite and Remote Sensing Data for Management of a Reservoir in the Eastern Pyrenees M. Sanz-Ramos et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001979
- Numerical modelling of the evolution of a river reach with a complex morphology to help define future sustainable restoration decisions R. Yassine et al. 10.5194/esurf-11-1199-2023
- Atmospheric–hydrological modeling for Beijing's sub-center based on WRF and SWMM Y. Gu et al. 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101066
- Ensemble flash flood predictions using a high-resolution nationwide distributed rainfall-runoff model: case study of the heavy rain event of July 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 T. Sayama et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00391-7
- Hybrid physically based and machine learning model to enhance high streamflow prediction S. López-Chacón et al. 10.1080/02626667.2024.2426720
- Real-time social media sentiment analysis for rapid impact assessment of floods L. Bryan-Smith et al. 10.1016/j.cageo.2023.105405
- Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecast of a Highly Localized Convective Event in the Mediterranean L. Furnari et al. 10.3390/w12061545
- Combining Synthetic and Observed Data to Enhance Machine Learning Model Performance for Streamflow Prediction S. López-Chacón et al. 10.3390/w15112020
- Beyond Prediction: An Integrated Post–Hoc Approach to Interpret Complex Model in Hydrometeorology F. Huang et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4167751
- Interpreting the Manning Roughness Coefficient in Overland Flow Simulations with Coupled Hydrological-Hydraulic Distributed Models M. Sanz-Ramos et al. 10.3390/w13233433
- Real-time flash flood forecasting approach for development of early warning systems: integrated hydrological and meteorological application J. Trošelj et al. 10.1080/19475705.2023.2269295
- Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia E. Yulihastin et al. 10.3390/atmos12111445
Latest update: 25 Jul 2025
Short summary
The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model. Both deterministic (single forecast of the most likely weather) and ensemble forecasts (set or ensemble of forecasts) have been produced on three subcatchments of the eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.
The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a...
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