Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
13 Aug 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 13 Aug 2020
| 13 Aug 2020
Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru
Christian Huggel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse
190, Zurich, Switzerland
Mark Carey
Robert D. Clark Honors College and Environmental Studies Program,
University of Oregon, Eugene, USA
Adam Emmer
Global Change Research Institute, The Czech Academy of Science, 603 00
Brno, Czech Republic
Holger Frey
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse
190, Zurich, Switzerland
Noah Walker-Crawford
Department of Social Anthropology, Manchester University, Manchester, UK
Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
University of Fribourg Environmental Sciences and Humanities
Institute, Fribourg, Switzerland
Related authors
Laura Niggli, Holger Frey, Simon Allen, Nazgul Alybaeva, Christian Huggel, Bolot Moldobekov, and Vitalii Zaginaev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods pose significant risks to communities and infrastructure. Our study explores how effective different measures are in reducing such risks. Using numerical modelling, we evaluate three strategies: lowering lake levels, building a deflection dam, and creating a retention basin. We compared their hazard and exposure reduction and their costs and benefits. This offers insights that can improve GLOF risk management worldwide and support better decision-making.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
F. Frank, B. W. McArdell, C. Huggel, and A. Vieli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2569–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The sudden onset of large and erosive debris flows has been observed recently in different catchments in Switzerland, implicating the importance of erosion for debris flow modelling. Therefore, an erosion model was established based on field data (relationship between maximum shear stress and erosion depth and rate) of several debris flows measured at the Illgraben. Erosion model tests at the Spreitgraben showed considerable improvements in runout pattern as well as hydrograph propagation.
M. Stähli, M. Sättele, C. Huggel, B. W. McArdell, P. Lehmann, A. Van Herwijnen, A. Berne, M. Schleiss, A. Ferrari, A. Kos, D. Or, and S. M. Springman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
C. Huggel, A. Raissig, M. Rohrer, G. Romero, A. Diaz, and N. Salzmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 475–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Three different disaster databases are analyzed for detection of decadal spatiotemporal changes in the Andes of Peru. We find large variations in the disaster metrics depending on the database. We recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened.
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
S. Nussbaumer, Y. Schaub, C. Huggel, and A. Walz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1611–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, 2014
D. Schneider, C. Huggel, A. Cochachin, S. Guillén, and J. García
Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014
A. Rabatel, B. Francou, A. Soruco, J. Gomez, B. Cáceres, J. L. Ceballos, R. Basantes, M. Vuille, J.-E. Sicart, C. Huggel, M. Scheel, Y. Lejeune, Y. Arnaud, M. Collet, T. Condom, G. Consoli, V. Favier, V. Jomelli, R. Galarraga, P. Ginot, L. Maisincho, J. Mendoza, M. Ménégoz, E. Ramirez, P. Ribstein, W. Suarez, M. Villacis, and P. Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 7, 81–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, 2013
Laura Niggli, Holger Frey, Simon Allen, Nazgul Alybaeva, Christian Huggel, Bolot Moldobekov, and Vitalii Zaginaev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods pose significant risks to communities and infrastructure. Our study explores how effective different measures are in reducing such risks. Using numerical modelling, we evaluate three strategies: lowering lake levels, building a deflection dam, and creating a retention basin. We compared their hazard and exposure reduction and their costs and benefits. This offers insights that can improve GLOF risk management worldwide and support better decision-making.
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analyze its preconditions, consequences, and the role of changing climate. Our study contibutes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Adam Emmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 813–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-813-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). It shows how research on GLOFs has become topical over the past few decades (analysed period: 1979–2016). Issues such as (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration are addressed.
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
F. Frank, B. W. McArdell, C. Huggel, and A. Vieli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2569–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The sudden onset of large and erosive debris flows has been observed recently in different catchments in Switzerland, implicating the importance of erosion for debris flow modelling. Therefore, an erosion model was established based on field data (relationship between maximum shear stress and erosion depth and rate) of several debris flows measured at the Illgraben. Erosion model tests at the Spreitgraben showed considerable improvements in runout pattern as well as hydrograph propagation.
M. Stähli, M. Sättele, C. Huggel, B. W. McArdell, P. Lehmann, A. Van Herwijnen, A. Berne, M. Schleiss, A. Ferrari, A. Kos, D. Or, and S. M. Springman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
C. Huggel, A. Raissig, M. Rohrer, G. Romero, A. Diaz, and N. Salzmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 475–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Three different disaster databases are analyzed for detection of decadal spatiotemporal changes in the Andes of Peru. We find large variations in the disaster metrics depending on the database. We recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened.
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
A. Emmer and V. Vilímek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3461–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014, 2014
S. Nussbaumer, Y. Schaub, C. Huggel, and A. Walz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1611–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, 2014
D. Schneider, C. Huggel, A. Cochachin, S. Guillén, and J. García
Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014
A. Emmer and V. Vilímek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1551–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1551-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1551-2013, 2013
A. Rabatel, B. Francou, A. Soruco, J. Gomez, B. Cáceres, J. L. Ceballos, R. Basantes, M. Vuille, J.-E. Sicart, C. Huggel, M. Scheel, Y. Lejeune, Y. Arnaud, M. Collet, T. Condom, G. Consoli, V. Favier, V. Jomelli, R. Galarraga, P. Ginot, L. Maisincho, J. Mendoza, M. Ménégoz, E. Ramirez, P. Ribstein, W. Suarez, M. Villacis, and P. Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 7, 81–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Content Analysis of Multi-Annual Time Series of Flood-Related Twitter (X) Data
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Unravelling the capacity-action gap in flood risk adaptation
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Individual Flood Risk Adaptation in Germany: Exploring the Role of Different Types of Flooding
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners’ needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Cited articles
Allen, S. K., Rastner, P., Arora, M., Huggel, C., and Stoffel, M.: Lake
outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013:
hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition, Landslides,
13, 1479–1491, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0584-3, 2016.
Allison, E. A.: The spiritual significance of glaciers in an age of climate
change, Wires. Clim. Change, 6, 493–508,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.354, 2015.
Anonymous: La reconstrucción de la zona del aluvión, El
Departamento, Huaraz, 1945.
Anonymous: Edificaciones en el Aluvión, El Departamento, Huaraz, 1951.
Anonymous: Urbanisación de la zona del aluvión, El Departamento,
Huaraz, 1956.
Arce, M.: The Repoliticization of Collective Action after Neoliberalism in
Peru, Lat. Am. Polit. Soc., 50, 37–62, 2008.
Bayertz, K.: Eine kurze Geschichte der Herkunft der Verantwortung, in:, Verantwortung. Prinzip oder Problem?, edited by:
Bayertz, K.,
Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft, Darmstadt, 3–71, 1995.
Bindoff, N. L., Stott, P. A., AchutaRao, K. M., Allen, M. R., Gillett, N.,
Gutzler, D., Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y. and Jain, S.: Detection and
attribution of climate change: from global to regional, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F.,
Qin, D.,. Plattner, G. K, Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y.,
Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 867–952, 2013.
Blaikie, P. M., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B.: At risk: natural
hazards, people's vulnerability, and disasters, Routledge, London, 1994.
Bode, B.: Disaster, Social Structure, and Myth in the Peruvian Andes: The
Genesis of an Explanation, Ann. NY. Acad. Sci., 293, 246–274, 1977.
Bode, B.: No Bells to Toll: Destruction and Creation in the Andes, Paragon
House, New York, NY, USA, 1990.
Bolin, I.: The Glaciers of the Andes are Melting: Indigenous and
Anthropological Knowledge Merge in Restoring Water Resources, in:
Anthropology and Climate Change: From Encounters to Actions, edited by: Crate, S. A. and Nuttall, M., Left Coast Press, Walnut Creek, CA, USA, 228–239, 2009.
Burns, W. C. and Osofsky, H. M.: Adjudicating climate change: state,
national, and international approaches, Cambridge University Press,
available at:
https://books.google.ch/books?hl=de&lr=&id=_JLO0URFjOoC&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&dq=grossman+liability+adjudicating+climate+change+cambridge&ots=nM6e3UB5cG&sig=9NnQR155vcPSCwbtms3OBrzYJzI
(last access: 2 September 2015), 2009.
Byers, A. C.: Contemporary landscape change in the Huascarán National
Park and buffer zone, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Mt. Res. Dev., 20, 52–63,
2000.
Calliari, E.: Loss and damage: a critical discourse analysis of Parties'
positions in climate change negotiations, J. Risk Res., 21, 725–747,
https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2016.1240706, 2018.
Caney, S.: Cosmopolitan Justice, Responsibility, and Global Climate Change,
Leiden J. Int. Law, 18, 747–775, 2005.
Carey, M.: Living and dying with glaciers: people's historical vulnerability
to avalanches and outburst floods in Peru, Glob. Planet. Change, 47,
122–134, 2005.
Carey, M.: Mountaineers and Engineers: An Environmental History of
International Sport, Science, and Landscape Consumption in Twentieth-Century
Peru, HAHR.-Hisp. Am. Hist. R., 92, 107–141, 2012.
Carey, M., Huggel, C., Bury, J., Portocarrero, C., and Haeberli, W.: An
integrated socio-environmental framework for climate change adaptation and
glacier hazard management: Lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru,
Clim. Change, 112, 733–767, 2012.
Carey, M., McDowell, G., Huggel, C., Jackson, M., Portocarrero, C.,
Reynolds, J. M., and Vicuña, L.: Integrated approaches to adaptation and
disaster risk reduction in dynamic socio-cryospheric systems, in Snow and
ice-related hazards, risks, and disasters, in: Hazards and Disasters Series, edited by: Haeberli, W., Whiteman, C., and
Shroder, J. F., Elsevier,
Oxford, UK, 221–261, 2014.
Carey, M., Molden, O. C., Rasmussen, M. B., Jackson, M., Nolin, A. W., and
Mark, B. G.: Impacts of Glacier Recession and Declining Meltwater on
Mountain Societies, Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr., 107, 350–359,
https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1243039, 2017.
Carey, M. P.: In the shadow of melting glaciers: climate change and Andean
Society, Oxford University Press, New York, USA, 2010.
Carrivick, J. L. and Tweed, F. S.: A global assessment of the societal
impacts of glacier outburst floods, Glob. Planet. Change, 144, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001, 2016.
Casassa, G., López, P., Pouyaud, B., and Escobar, F.: Detection of
changes in glacial run-off in alpine basins: examples from North America,
the Alps, central Asia and the Andes, Hydrol. Process., 23, 31–41,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7194, 2009.
Costa, J. E. and Schuster, R. L.: The formation and failure of natural dams,
Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 7, 1054–1068, 1988.
Cramer, W., Yohe, G .W., Auffhammer, M., Huggel, C., Molau, U., Silva
Dias, M. A. F., Solow, A., Stone, D. A., and Tibig, L.: Detection and attribution of
observed impacts, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of
Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J.,
Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R.,
and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK, and New York, NY, USA, 979–1037, 2014.
Cruikshank, J.: Do glaciers listen?, University of British Columbia Press,
Vancouver, Canada, 2005.
De la Cadena, M.: Earth beings: Ecologies of practice across Andean worlds,
Duke University Press, Durham and London, UK, 2015.
Dickovick, J. T.: Decentralization and Recentralization in the Developing
World: Comparative Studies from Africa and Latin America, Penn State
University Press, University Park, USA, 2011.
Doughty, P. L.: Plan and Pattern in Reaction to Earthquake: Peru, 1970–1998,
in: The Angry Earth: Disaster in Anthropological Perspective, edited by:
Oliver-Smith, A. and Hoffman, S. M., Routledge, New York, 234–256, 1999.
Drew, G.: A Retreating Goddess? Conflicting Perceptions of A Retreating Goddess? Conflicting Perceptions of Ecological Change near the Gangotri-Gaumukh Glacier, Nat. Cult., 6, 344–362, 2012.
Dussaillant, I., Berthier, E., Brun, F., Masiokas, M., Hugonnet, R., Favier,
V., Rabatel, A., Pitte, P., and Ruiz, L.: Two decades of glacier mass loss
along the Andes, Nat. Geosci., 12, 802–808,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0432-5, 2019.
El Comercio: Elecciones 2018: La agenda pendiente en Ancash, Grupo El
Comercio,
available at: https://elcomercio.pe/peru/ancash/agenda-pendiente-ancash-noticia-561183, last access: 18 December 2018.
ELECTROPERU: Liquidacion de Obra “Consolidacion Laguna Palcacocha”
1973–1974, ELECTROPERU, Huaraz, Peru, 1974.
Emmer, A.: Geomorphologically effective floods from moraine-dammed lakes in
the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Quat. Sci. Rev., 177, 220–234,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.10.028, 2017.
Emmer, A. and Vilímek, V.: Review Article: Lake and breach hazard assessment for moraine-dammed lakes: an example from the Cordillera Blanca (Peru), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1551–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1551-2013, 2013.
Emmer, A., Klimeš, J., Mergili, M., Vilímek, V., and Cochachin, A.:
882 lakes of the Cordillera Blanca: An inventory, classification, evolution
and assessment of susceptibility to outburst floods, Catena, 147, 269–279,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.07.032, 2016.
Emmer, A., Vilímek, V., and Zapata, M. L.: Hazard mitigation of glacial
lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru): the effectiveness of
remedial works, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11, S489–S501,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12241, 2018.
Faillettaz, J., Funk, M., and Vincent, C.: Avalanching glacier instabilities:
Review on processes and early warning perspectives, Rev. Geophys., 53,
2014RG000466, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000466, 2015.
Frank, W., Bals, C., and Grimm, J.: The Case of Huaraz: First Climate Lawsuit
on Loss and Damage Against an Energy Company Before German Courts, in: Loss
and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options, edited
by: Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Schinko, T., Surminski, S., and
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Springer International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland, 475–482,
2019.
Frey, H., Huggel, C., Chisolm, R. E., Baer, P., McArdell, B., Cochachin, A.,
and Portocarrero, C.: Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard
Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Front. Earth
Sci., 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00210, 2018.
Gagné, K.: Caring for Glaciers: Land, Animals, and Humanity in the
Himalayas, University of Washington Press, Seattle, WA, USA, 2019.
Ganguly, G., Setzer, J., and Heyvaert, V.: If at First You Don't Succeed:
Suing Corporations for Climate Change, Oxf. J. Leg. Stud., 38, 841–868,
https://doi.org/10.1093/ojls/gqy029, 2018.
Gardiner, S. M.: Ethics and Global Climate Change, Ethics, 114, 555–600,
2004.
Georges, C.: 20th-century glacier fluctuations in the tropical Cordillera
Blanca, Peru, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 36, 100–107, 2004.
Grossman, D. A.: Warming up to a Not-So-Radical Idea: Tort-Based Climate
Change Litigation, Columbia J. Environ. Law, 28, 1–61, 2003.
Haeberli, W., Schaub, Y., and Huggel, C.: Increasing risks related to
landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating
mountain ranges, Geomorphology, 293, 405–417,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.009, 2017.
Hansen, G. and Stone, D.: Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic
climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 532–537, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2896,
2016.
Harrison, S., Kargel, J. S., Huggel, C., Reynolds, J., Shugar, D. H., Betts, R. A., Emmer, A., Glasser, N., Haritashya, U. K., Klimeš, J., Reinhardt, L., Schaub, Y., Wiltshire, A., Regmi, D., and Vilímek, V.: Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods, The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018.
Hastenrath, S. and Ames, A.: Recession of Yanamarey Glacier in Cordillera
Blanca, Peru, during the 20th century, J. Glaciol., 41, 191–196,
https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000017883, 1995.
Hastrup, K.: Anthropological contributions to the study of climate: past,
present, future, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change, 4, 269–281,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.219, 2013.
Hayward, T.: Climate change and ethics, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 843–848,
2012.
Hegglin, E. and Huggel, C.: An Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to
Glacial Hazards, Mt. Res. Dev., 28, 299–309, 2008.
Heidinger, H., Carvalho, L., Jones, C., Posadas, A. and Quiroz, R.: A new
assessment in total and extreme rainfall trends over central and southern
Peruvian Andes during 1965–2010, Int. J. Climatol., 38, e998–e1015,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5427, 2018.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi, Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau, U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H.: High Mountain Areas, in: IPCC Special Report on the
Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O.,
Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E.,
Mintenbeck, K., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer., N., World Meterological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 131–202, 2019.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Taylor, M., Bindi, M., Brown, S.,
Camilloni, I., Diedhiou, A., Djalante, R., Ebi, K., Engelbrecht, F., Guiot,
K., Hijioka, Y., Mehrotra, S., Payne, A., Seneviratne, S., Thomas, A.,
Warren, R., and Zhou, G.: Impacts of 1.5 ∘C Global Warming on Natural and
Human Systems, in: Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C. An IPCC Special Report on
the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial
levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context
of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,
sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, edited by: Masson-Delmotte,
V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A.,
Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R.,
Chen, Y.,Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and
Waterfield, T., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 175–311, available at: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15518/
(last access: 20 January 2019), 2018.
Huggel, C., Wallimann-Helmer, I., Stone, D., and Cramer, W.: Reconciling
justice and attribution research to advance climate policy, Nat. Clim.
Change, 6, 901–908, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3104, 2016.
Huggel, C., Muccione, V., Carey, M., James, R., Jurt, C., and Mechler, R.:
Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere, Reg. Environ. Change, 19,
1387–1399, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1385-8, 2019.
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier
mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 135–140, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x,
2018.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A:
Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited
by: Field, C. B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and
New York, NY, USA, 2014.
INEI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática): Sistema de Información Geográfica para Emprendedores, available at: http://sige.inei.gob.pe/sige/ (last access: 14 March 2018), 2020.
James, R. A., Jones, R. G., Boyd, E., Young, H. R., Otto, F. E. L., Huggel,
C., and Fuglestvedt, J. S.: Attribution: How Is It Relevant for Loss and
Damage Policy and Practice?, in: Loss and Damage from Climate Change:
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options, edited by: Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M.,
Schinko, T., Surminski, S., and Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Springer
International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland, 113–154, 2019.
Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A., and Christidis, N.: Attribution of observed
historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural
causes using CMIP5 simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118,
4001–4024, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50239, 2013.
Jurt, C., Brugger, J., Dunbar, K. W., Milch, K., and Orlove, B.: Cultural
values of glaciers, in: The High-Mountain Cryosphere, edited by: Huggel, C., Carey, M.,
Clague, J. J., and Kääb, A., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 90–106, 2015.
Kääb, A. and Haeberli, W.: Evolution of a high-mountain thermokarst
lake in the Swiss Alps, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 385–390, 2001.
Kargel, J. S., Furfaro, R., Kaser, G., Leonard, G. J., Fink, W., Huggel, C.,
Kääb, A., Raup, B. H., Reynolds, J. M., and Zapata, M.: ASTER imaging
and analysis of glacier hazards, in: Land Remote Sensing and Global Environmental Change: NASA's Earth Observing System and the Science of Terra and Aqua, edited by: Ramachandran, B., Justice, C. O., and Abrams, M. J.,
Springer, New York, USA, 325–373, 2011.
Kaser, G. and Georges, C.: Changes in the equilibrium line altitude in the
tropical Cordillera Blanca (Perú) between 1930 and 1950 and their
spatial variations, Ann. Glaciol., 24, 344–349, 1997.
Kaswan, A.: Climate Adaptation and Theories of Justice, Arch. Für
Rechts- Sozialphilosophie, 149, 97–118, 2016.
Kinzl, H.: La glaciacion actual y pleistocenica en los Andes centrales, Bol.
Soc. Geog. Lima, 89, 89–100, 1969.
Klimeš, J., Novotný, J., Novotná, I., de Urries, B. J.,
Vilímek, V., Emmer, A., Strozzi, T., Kusák, M., Rapre, A. C.,
Hartvich, F., and Frey, H.: Landslides in moraines as triggers of glacial
lake outburst floods: example from Palcacocha Lake (Cordillera Blanca,
Peru), Landslides, 13, 1461–1477, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0724-4, 2016.
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F., and Immerzeel, W.
W.: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's
glaciers, Nature, 549, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878, 2017.
Lees, E.: Responsibility and liability for climate loss and damage after
Paris, Clim. Policy, 17, 59–70, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1197095, 2017.
Lliboutry, L., Morales Arnao, B., Pautre, A., and Schneider, B.:
Glaciological problems set by the control of dangerous lakes in Cordillera
Blanca, Peru, J. Glaciol., 18, 239–290, 1977.
Magrin, G. O., Marengo, J. A., Boulanger, J.-P., Buckeridge, M. S.,
Castellanos, E., Poveda, G., Scarano, F. R., and Vicuña, S.: Central and South
America, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.
Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, edited
by: Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J.,
Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B.,
Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New
York, NY, USA, 1499–1566, 2014.
Marjanac, S. and Patton, L.: Extreme weather event attribution science and
climate change litigation: an essential step in the causal chain?, J. Energy
Nat. Resour. Law, 36, 265–298, https://doi.org/10.1080/02646811.2018.1451020, 2018.
Marzeion, B., Cogley, J. G., Richter, K., and Parkes, D.: Attribution of
global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes, Science,
345, 919–921, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254702, 2014.
McCormick, S., Glicksman, R. L., Simmens, S. J., Paddock, L., Kim, D., and
Whited, B.: Strategies in and outcomes of climate change litigation in the
United States, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 829–833,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0240-8, 2018.
McDowell, G., Huggel, C., Frey, H., Wang, F. M., Cramer, K., and Ricciardi,
V.: Adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems: Are they
enough to meet the challenge of climate change?, Glob. Environ. Change, 54,
19–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.10.012, 2019.
Mechler, R., Calliari, E., Bouwer, L. M., Schinko, T., Surminski, S.,
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Boyd, E., Deckard, N. D.,
Fuglestvedt, J. S., González-Eguino, M., Haasnoot, M., Handmer, J.,
Haque, M., Heslin, A., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Huggel, C., Huq, S., James,
R., Jones, R. G., Juhola, S., Keating, A., Kienberger, S., Kreft, S., Kuik,
O., Landauer, M., Laurien, F., Lawrence, J., Lopez, A., Liu, W.,
Magnuszewski, P., Markandya, A., Mayer, B., McCallum, I., McQuistan, C.,
Meyer, L., Mintz-Woo, K., Montero-Colbert, A., Mysiak, J., Nalau, J., Noy,
I., Oakes, R., Otto, F. E. L., Pervin, M., Roberts, E., Schäfer, L.,
Scussolini, P., Serdeczny, O., de Sherbinin, A., Simlinger, F., Sitati, A.,
Sultana, S., Young, H. R., van der Geest, K., van den Homberg, M.,
Wallimann-Helmer, I., Warner, K., and Zommers, Z.: Science for Loss and
Damage. Findings and Propositions, in: Loss and Damage from Climate Change:
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options, edited by: Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M.,
Schinko, T., Surminski, S., and Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Springer
International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland, 3–37, 2019.
Mergili, M., Pudasaini, S. P., Emmer, A., Fischer, J.-T., Cochachin, A., and Frey, H.: Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020.
Mukherji, A., Sinisalo, A., Nüsser, M., Garrard, R., and Eriksson, M.:
Contributions of the cryosphere to mountain communities in the Hindu Kush
Himalaya: a review, Reg. Environ. Change, 19, 1311–1326,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01484-w, 2019.
Nüsser, M. and Baghel, R.: Local Knowledge and Global Concerns:
Artificial Glaciers as a Focus of Environmental Knowledge and Development
Interventions, in: Ethnic and Cultural Dimensions of Knowledge, edited by:
Meusburger, P., Freytag, T., and Suarsana, L., Springer
International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland, 191–209, 2016.
Nüsser, M., Dame, J., Kraus, B., Baghel, R., and Schmidt, S.:
Socio-hydrology of “artificial glaciers” in Ladakh, India: assessing
adaptive strategies in a changing cryosphere, Reg. Environ. Change, 19,
1327–1337, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1372-0, 2019.
Okereke, C., Baral, P., and Dagnet, Y.: Options for adaptation and loss &
damage in a 2015 climate agreement, Working Paper, Agreement
for Climate Transformation 2015 (ACT15), Washington D.C., 19 pp., 2014.
Oliver-Smith, A.: Traditional Agriculture, Central Places, and Postdisaster
Urban Relocation in Peru, Am. Ethnol., 4, 102–116, 1977.
Oliver-Smith, A.: Here There is Life: The Social and Cultural Dynamics of
Successful Resistance to Resettlement in Postdisaster Peru, in: Involuntary
Migration and Resettlement: The Problems and Responses of Dislocated People,
edited by: Hansen, A. and Oliver-Smith, A., Westview Press,
Boulder, USA, 85–103, 1982.
Oliver-Smith, A.: The Martyred City: Death and Rebirth in the Andes,
University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, USA, 1986.
Oliver-Smith, A.: Peru's Five-Hundred-Year Earthquake: Vulnerability in
Historical Context, in: The Angry Earth: Disaster in Anthropological
Perspective, edited by: Oliver-Smith, A. and Hoffman, S. M.,
Routledge, New York, USA, 74–88, 1999.
Oliver-Smith, A.: A matter of choice, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 3,
1–3, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.12.001, 2013.
O'Neill, J.: The price of an apology: justice, compensation and
rectification, Camb. J. Econ., 41, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bew047,
2017.
Oppenheim, V.: Sobre las lagunas de Huaráz, B. Soc. Geol. Peru Soc.
Geol. Peru Lima, 19, 68–80, 1946.
Orlove, B., Milch, K., Zaval, L., Ungemach, C., Brugger, J., Dunbar, K., and
Jurt, C.: Framing climate change in frontline communities: anthropological
insights on how mountain dwellers in the USA, Peru, and Italy adapt to
glacier retreat, Reg. Environ. Change, 19, 1295–1309,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01482-y, 2019.
Otto, F. E. L., Skeie, R. B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Berntsen, T., and Allen, M.
R.: Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events, Nat. Clim.
Change, 7, 757–759, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3419, 2017.
Page, E.: Distributing the Burdens of Climate Change, Environ. Polit.,
17, 556–575, 2008.
Page, E. A. and Heyward, C.: Compensating for Climate Change Loss and
Damage, Polit. Stud., 65, 356–372, https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321716647401, 2016.
Portocarrero, C. A.: Reducing the risk of dangerous lakes in the Peruvian
Andes: A handbook for glacial lake management, US Agency for International
Development (USAID), Washington, D.C., USA, 2014.
Rabatel, A., Francou, B., Soruco, A., Gomez, J., Cáceres, B., Ceballos, J. L., Basantes, R., Vuille, M., Sicart, J.-E., Huggel, C., Scheel, M., Lejeune, Y., Arnaud, Y., Collet, M., Condom, T., Consoli, G., Favier, V., Jomelli, V., Galarraga, R., Ginot, P., Maisincho, L., Mendoza, J., Ménégoz, M., Ramirez, E., Ribstein, P., Suarez, W., Villacis, M., and Wagnon, P.: Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change, The Cryosphere, 7, 81–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, 2013.
Raetzo, H. Lateltin, O. Bollinger, D., and Tripet, J.: Hazard assessment in Switzerland – Codes of Practice for
mass movements, B. Eng. Geol. Environ., 61, 263–268,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-002-0163-4, 2002.
Schauwecker, S., Rohrer, M., Acuña, D., Cochachin, A., Dávila, L.,
Frey, H., Giráldez, C., Gómez, J., Huggel, C., Jacques-Coper, M.,
Loarte, E., Salzmann, N., and Vuille, M.: Climate trends and glacier retreat
in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, revisited, Glob. Planet. Change, 119,
85–97, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.05.005, 2014.
Schauwecker, S., Rohrer, M., Huggel, C., Endries, J., Montoya, N., Neukom,
R., Perry, B., Salzmann, N., Schwarb, M., and Suarez, W.: The freezing level
in the tropical Andes, Peru: an indicator for present and future glacier
extents, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 2016JD025943,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025943, 2017.
Schneider, D., Huggel, C., Cochachin, A., Guillén, S., and García, J.: Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods based on modelling of process cascades at Lake 513, Carhuaz, Peru, Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014.
Sherpa, P.: Climate Change, Perceptions, and Social Heterogeneity in Pharak,
Mount Everest Region of Nepal, Hum. Organ., 73, 153–161,
https://doi.org/10.17730/humo.73.2.94q43152111733t6, 2014.
Sherry, J., Curtis, A., Mendham, E., and Toman, E.: Cultural landscapes at
risk: Exploring the meaning of place in a sacred valley of Nepal, Glob.
Environ. Change, 52, 190–200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.07.007, 2018.
Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.: Vulnerability and decision risk analysis in glacier
lake outburst floods (GLOF). Case studies?: Quillcay sub basin in the
Cordillera Blanca in Peru and Dudh Koshi sub basin in the Everest region in
Nepal, PhD Thesis, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA, available at:
https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/25940 (last access 29 December 2018), 2014.
Somos-Valenzuela, M. A., Chisolm, R. E., Rivas, D. S., Portocarrero, C., and McKinney, D. C.: Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2519–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016, 2016.
Steinberg, T.: Acts of God: The Unnatural History of Natural Disaster in
America, Oxford University Press, New York, USA, 2000.
Stone, D., Auffhammer, M., Carey, M., Hansen, G., Huggel, C., Cramer, W.,
Lobell, D., Molau, U., Solow, A., Tibig, L., and Yohe, G.: The challenge to
detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems,
Clim. Change, 121, 381–395, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6, 2013.
Stott, P. A., Tett, S. F. B., Jones, G. S., Allen, M. R., Mitchell, J. F. B.,
and Jenkins, G. J.: External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural
and Anthropogenic Forcings, Science, 290, 2133–2137,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.290.5499.2133, 2000.
Stuart-Smith, R. F., Roe, G. H., Li, S., and Allen, M. R.: Anthropogenic
contribution to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)
and glacial lake outburst flood risk, Nat. Geosci., in review, 2020.
UGRH: Plano batymétrico de la laguna Palcacocha, Autoridad Nacional del
Agua (ANA), Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos (UGRH),
Huaraz, Peru, 2016.
UNISDR: Terminology on disaster risk reduction, United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland, 2009.
Vilimek, V., Zapata, M. L., Klimeš, J., Patzelt, Z., and Santillán,
N.: Influence of glacial retreat on natural hazards of the Palcacocha Lake
area, Peru, Landslides, 2, 107–115, 2005.
Vuille, M., Francou, B., Wagnon, P., Juen, I., Kaser, G., Mark, B. G., and
Bradley, R. S.: Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: Past, present
and future, Earth Sci. Rev., 89, 79–96, 2008.
Vuille, M., Franquist, E., Garreaud, R., Lavado Casimiro, W. S., and
Cáceres, B.: Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 2015JD023126,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023126, 2015.
Wallimann-Helmer, I.: Differentiating responsibilities for climate change
adaptation, Arch. Für Rechts- Sozialphilosophie, 149, 119–132,
2016.
Wallimann-Helmer, I.: Common but differentiated responsibilities: agency in
climate justice, in: A Research Agenda for Climate Justice, edited by:
Harris, P., Edward Elgar Publishing, Camberley, UK, 27–37, 2019.
Wallimann-Helmer, I., Meyer, L., Mintz-Woo, K., Schinko, T., and Serdeczny,
O.: The Ethical Challenges in the Context of Climate Loss and Damage, in:
Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options,
edited by: Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Schinko, T., Surminski, S., and
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Springer International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland, 39–62,
2019.
Walton, N. K.: Human Spatial Organization in an Andean Valley: The
Callejón de Huaylas, Ph.D., University of Georgia, Athens, USA, 1974.
Warner, K. and van der Geest, K.: Loss and damage from climate change:
local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries, Int. J. Global Warm.,
5, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2013.057289, 2013.
Wegner, S. A.: Lo que el agua se llevó. Consecuencias y lecciones del
aluvión de Huaraz de 1941, Notas Técnicas sobre Cambio
Climático, 7, Huaraz, Peru, 2014.
Williams, C. and Golovnev, I.: Pamiri Women and the Melting Glaciers of
Tajikistan, in: A Political Ecology of Women, Water and Global Environmental
Change, edited by: Buechler, S., and Hanson, A.-M. S., Routledge,
New York, USA, 206–225, 2015.
Wisner, B., Blaikie, P. M., Cannon, T., and Davis, I.: At risk: natural
hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters, Routledge, London, UK, 2004.
Wrathall, D. J., Bury, J., Carey, M., Mark, B. G., McKenzie, J., Young, K.,
Baraer, M., French, A., and Rampini, C.: Migration Amidst Climate Rigidity
Traps: Resource Politics and Social–Ecological Possibilism in Honduras and
Peru, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 104, 292–304, 2014.
Yauri Montero, M.: Ancash o la bigrafía de la inmortalidad: Nuevo
planteamiento de sus problemas culturales, P.L. Villanueva S.A., Lima, Peru,
1972.
Yauri Montero, M.: Leyendas ancashinas, 6th edn., Lerma Gómez
eirl, Lima, Peru, 2000.
Zapata, M. L., Gómez, R. J., Cochachin, A., Santillán, N., Montalvo,
C., and Lizarme, G.: Memoria anual 2003, INRENA, Huaraz, Peru, 2004.
Zemp, M., Frey, H., Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Hoelzle, M.,
Paul, F., Haeberli, W., Denzinger, F., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Anderson, B.,
Bajracharya, S., Baroni, C., Braun, L. N., Cáceres, B. E., Casassa, G.,
Cobos, G., Dávila, L. R., Delgado Granados, H., Demuth, M. N., Espizua,
L., Fischer, A., Fujita, K., Gadek, B., Ghazanfar, A., Hagen, J. O.,
Holmlund, P., Karimi, N., Li, Z., Pelto, M., Pitte, P., Popovnin, V. V.,
Portocarrero, C. A., Prinz, R., Sangewar, C. V., Severskiy, I.,
Sigurðsson, O., Soruco, A., Usubaliev, R., and Vincent, C.: Historically
unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century, J. Glaciol.,
61, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG15J017, 2015.
Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint