Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1595-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1595-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2020
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2020

Skill of large-scale seasonal drought impact forecasts

Samuel J. Sutanto, Melati van der Weert, Veit Blauhut, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen

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Short summary
Present-day drought early warning systems only provide information on drought hazard forecasts. Here, we have developed drought impact functions to forecast drought impacts up to 7 months ahead using machine learning techniques, logistic regression, and random forest. Our results show that random forest produces a higher-impact forecasting skill than logistic regression. For German county levels, drought impacts can be forecasted up to 4 months ahead using random forest.
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Recent advances in drought and water scarcity monitoring,...
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