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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 2, issue 3/4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2, 239–245, 2002
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2-239-2002
© Author(s) 2002. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

Special issue: Landslides and related phenomena: Avalanches

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2, 239–245, 2002
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2-239-2002
© Author(s) 2002. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  31 Dec 2002

31 Dec 2002

A new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic models

M. Barbolini1 and C. J. Keylock2 M. Barbolini and C. J. Keylock
  • 1Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, University of Pavia, Via Ferrata 1, I-27100 Pavia, Italy
  • 2School of Geography,University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

Abstract. The purpose of the present paper is to propose a new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic modelling tools. The methodology is based on frequency-weighted impact pressure, and uses an avalanche dynamics model embedded within a statistical framework. The outlined procedure provides a useful way for avalanche experts to produce hazard maps for the typical case of avalanche sites where historical records are either poorly documented or even completely lacking, as well as to derive confidence limits on the proposed zoning. The methodology is implemented using avalanche information from Iceland and the Swiss mapping criteria, and applied to an Icelandic real world avalanche-mapping problem.

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