Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2513–2524, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2513-2019

Special issue: Hydroclimatic extremes and impacts at catchment to regional...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2513–2524, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2513-2019

Research article 13 Nov 2019

Research article | 13 Nov 2019

Bayesian network model for flood forecasting based on atmospheric ensemble forecasts

Leila Goodarzi et al.

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Latest update: 07 Dec 2021
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Short summary
We developed a novel approach in using Bayesian networks (BNs) for ensemble flood forecasting in a case study in Iran. This allows fast early warning without the need for hydrological modelling. We recommend to combine precipitation ensembles with hydrological initial conditions in the BN. The number of observed flood events is low by nature. Under the limited amount of data, BN outperformed artificial neural networks with good results. Future work will validate the concept further.
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