Articles | Volume 18, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2431-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2431-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 14 Sep 2018
| 14 Sep 2018
A comparison of building value models for flood risk analysis
Veronika Röthlisberger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012
Bern, Switzerland
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12,
3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,
Falkenplatz 16, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Andreas P. Zischg
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012
Bern, Switzerland
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12,
3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,
Falkenplatz 16, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Margreth Keiler
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012
Bern, Switzerland
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12,
3012 Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
No articles found.
Sven Fuchs, Konstantinos Karagiorgos, Margreth Keiler, Lars Nyberg, and Maria Papathoma-Köhle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2509, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
The 2025 California wildfires highlighted major gaps in fire-resilient land use and design. This brief identifies four key barriers: limited stakeholder awareness and capacity, weak or missing incentives, governance challenges, and insufficient integration of risk into spatial planning processes. It calls for integrated policy frameworks to build adaptive capacity, enforce building codes, and align risk reduction with sustainability and climate resilience goals.
Anna Vesna Coutureau, Tabea Bork-Hüffer, and Margreth Keiler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1145, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
People with disabilities are highly vulnerable to disasters but underrepresented in risk management. A pilot study in Tyrol, Austria, assessed flood exposure and preparedness in disability facilities. Spatial analysis showed significant flood risk, while interviews revealed gaps in awareness and planning. The study urges disability-inclusive disaster management with accessible info, targeted measures, and integration of disability perspectives to enhance resilience.
Christophe Lienert, Andreas Paul Zischg, Horst Kremers, Jamie McCaughey, Lara Zinkl, and David N. Bresch
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-1-2025, 2025
Markus Mosimann, Martina Kauzlaric, Olivia Martius, and Andreas Paul Zischg
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 26, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, 2025
Mauro Fischer, Mario Kummert, Reto Aeschbacher, Christoph Graf, Alexis Rüeger, Philippe Schoeneich, Markus Zimmermann, and Margreth Keiler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1190, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, the hazard for debris flows originating in glacier forefields or areas dominated by seasonal to perennial frost is increasing. Hazard assessment for this type of debris flows is especially difficult as records of past events are typically scarce or inexistent. We therefore developed a multi-methods approach for scenario building and runout modelling for pro- and periglacial debris flows triggered by precipitation events and applied it to a catchment in the Swiss Alps.
Philipp Wanner, Noemi Buri, Kevin Wyss, Andreas Zischg, Rolf Weingartner, Jan Baumgartner, Benjamin Berger, and Christoph Wanner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-512, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantified the glacial meltwater contribution to mountainous streams using high-resolution stable water isotope analysis. The glacial meltwater made up almost 28 % of the annual mountainous stream discharges. This high contribution demonstrates that the mountainous streamflow regimes will change in the future when the glacial meltwater contribution will disappear due to global warming posing a major challenge for hydropower energy production in mountainous regions.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Andreas Paul Zischg, Guido Felder, Rolf Weingartner, Niall Quinn, Gemma Coxon, Jeffrey Neal, Jim Freer, and Paul Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2759–2773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model experiment and distributed different rainfall patterns over a mountain river basin. For each rainfall scenario, we computed the flood losses with a model chain. The experiment shows that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. Basin-specific characteristics such as the location of the main settlements within the floodplains play an additional important role in determining flood losses.
Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1203–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017, 2017
Jorge A. Ramirez, Umamaheshwaran Rajasekar, Dhruvesh P. Patel, Tom J. Coulthard, and Margreth Keiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-544, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-544, 2016
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
Surat, India has a population of 4.5 million and lies on the banks of the river Tapi and is located downstream from a dam that repeatedly floods the city. Floods in Surat may increase in occurrence due to urbanization and climate change. We have developed a model that floods 50 % of the city and exposes > 60 % of the population and critical infrastructure. We highlight how modeling has contributed to changes in flood risk management and resulted in actions that increase city resilience.
C. Willi, C. Graf, Y. Deubelbeiss, and M. Keiler
Geogr. Helv., 70, 265–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-70-265-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-70-265-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The erosion of and depositions on channel bed surfaces are instrumental to understanding debris flow processes. We present different methods and highlight their pro and cons. Terrestrial and airborne laser scanning, erosion sensors, cross sections and geomorphological mapping are compared. Two of these approaches are tested and applied in a torrent. The results indicate that the methods are associated with variable temporal and spatial resolution as well as data quality and invested effort.
S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, and A. Zischg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A spatially explicit object-based temporal assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria is presented, including elements at risk of river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing losses due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be opposed to the local development of building stock, which is spatially and temporally variable.
B. Mazzorana, S. Simoni, C. Scherer, B. Gems, S. Fuchs, and M. Keiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3817–3836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Invited perspectives: Advancing knowledge co-creation in drought impact studies
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? Case study Berlin
Modelling flood losses of micro-businesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: a watershed-level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
An evaluation of the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level: flooding and heavy rainfall
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Brief communication: Bridging the data gap – a call to enhance the representation of global coastal flood protection
Disaster management following the great Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production
Review article: Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
The Effect of Community Resilience and Disaster Risk Management Cycle Stages on Morbi-Mortality Following Floods: An Empirical Assessment
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
How are public compensation efforts implemented in multi-hazard events? Insights from the 2020 Gloria storm in Catalonia
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Flood exposure in Rotterdam’s unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise and adaptation
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Reevaluating Flood Protection: Disaster Risk Reduction for Urbanized Alluvial Fans
Brief communication: Comprehensive Resilience to Typhoon Disasters: An Urban Assessment of 27 Cities in Seven Major River Basin, China
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Sectoral Vulnerability to Drought: Exploring the Role of Blue and Green Water Dependency in Mid and High-Latitudes
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Silvia De Angeli, Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Maria Rusca, Giorgio Boni, Elena Bresci, and Luigi Piemontese
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2571–2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2571-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite transdisciplinary approaches being increasingly explored to study droughts and their impacts, their depth and breadth are yet to be fully exploited. By integrating insights from different research fields, we present five key dimensions to deepen and broaden the knowledge co-creation process for drought impact studies. Emphasizing social dynamics and power imbalances, we support hydrologists in developing more integrated, power-sensitive, inclusive, situated, and reflexive studies.
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, Angela Wendnagel-Beck, and Emmanouil Panagiotakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2481–2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from the urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend more strongly on inner variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2437–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenue from micro-businesses (shop houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding are not modelled. Business turnover, building age, and water depth were found to be the main drivers of flood losses of micro-businesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (non-parametric Bayesian networks) that estimate flood losses of micro-businesses. The results help with flood risk management and adaption decision making for micro-businesses.
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2351–2369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 western European flood. We found that discussions varied by location and flood impact: in-disaster concerns were more common in severely affected upstream areas, while post-disaster topics dominated downstream. Findings show the potential of social media for improving disaster coordination along cross-border rivers in time-sensitive situations.
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2155–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates 12 sets of drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and provides useful insights to develop the next generation of drought guidelines that are better aligned with contemporary science–policy–practice agendas.
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2097–2113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany, as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on; therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk that sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g., to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2115–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at the district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct damage of extremes on crop yields and farm revenue. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of EUR 781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights herein can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Bektaş Sarı
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
After the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50 000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects not only water availability but also agriculture, the economy, and communities. This study explores how public policies help reduce these impacts in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Using qualitative drought monitoring data, interviews, and policy analysis, we found that policies supporting local economies help lessen drought effects. However, most reported impacts are still related to water shortages, showing the need for broader strategies beyond water supply investment.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1963–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We are not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We assessed what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1811–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to counteract subsidence and its damage. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques which site-specific assessments should always follow.
Raquel Guimaraes, Reinhard Mechler, Stefan Velev, and Dipesh Chapagain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1947, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how communities can better protect people's lives and health during floods. By looking at 66 communities in seven countries, we found that strong social ties and preparedness before disasters helped reduce injuries and deaths. However, some environmental efforts didn't show clear health benefits, especially in degraded areas. Our research highlights how early planning and strong local networks can make a real difference during crises.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal, and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners' needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. We provide examples to demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
Núria Pantaleoni Reluy, Marcel Hürlimann, and Nieves Lantada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1009, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Spain combines public funds with a state-backed insurance program for natural disaster recovery. Our study examines Storm Gloria, which struck Catalonia in 2020, causing severe damage. By systematically collecting and classifying direct losses, we offer insights into the role of government interventions in disaster response, define multi-hazard municipalities based on a loss database, and provide initial insights into loss assessments relative to annual occurrence probability.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Cees Oerlemans, Martine van den Boomen, Ties Rijcken, and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by urban development and sea level rise. Varied exposure levels across neighborhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Heidi Horan, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with climate change. Our research introduces a new system, the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI), which measures droughts based on their effects on crops, livestock, and farm profits rather than traditional weather metrics. Using climate data and modelling, AADI predicts drought impacts more accurately, helping policymakers prepare and respond to financial and social challenges during droughts.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Tamir Grodek and Gerardo Benito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Check dams, terraces, and trees on steep basins serve to retain sediments, thereby protecting urbanized alluvial fan canals and levees from flooding. However, their effectiveness gradually decreases over time due to sedimentation and aging, which may lead to catastrophic breaching floods. To enhance urban resilience, we propose preserving natural mountain basins and allocating 20–30 % of the alluvial fan for channel migration and sediment deposition corridors.
Zezhao Liu, Jiahui Yang, and Cong Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We construct an indicator-based framework, and assess urban resilience to typhoon in China’s contexts for the seven major river basins. Results verified the heterogeneity, and the resilience level in certain circumstance was not matched with city strength of economy. The analysis is helpful for government to enhance capability of resilience in specific dimensions, and provides a reference in probing urban resilience assessment confronting typhoon.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Utilizing a survey including respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water dependency for drought vulnerability was explored. Differences were found in the perceived impact of vulnerability factors on drought risk in relation to water dependency (i.e., dependency on either soil moisture, or groundwater and surface water). The results highlight the importance of accounting for water dependency, and to clearly define the drought hazard, in drought vulnerability or risk assessments.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Cited articles
Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., 19, 716–723, 1974.
ARE Bundesamt für Raumplanung, BWG, Bundesamt für Wasser und Geologie, and BUWAL, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft: Empfehlung Raumplanung und Naturgefahren, 50 pp., 2005.
Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale, Climatic Change, 134, 387–401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5, 2016.
Arrighi, C., Brugioni, M., Castelli, F., Franceschini, S., and Mazzanti, B.: Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1375–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1375-2013, 2013.
BAFU Bundesamt für Umwelt: EconoMe 4.0 Wirksamkeit und Wirtschaftlichkeit von Schutzmassnahmen gegen Naturgefahren: Handbuch/Dokumentation, available at: https://econome.ch/eco_work/doc/Handbuch_EconoMe_4.0_Version_Dez2016_D.pdf (last access: 7 September 2018), 2015.
Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009.
Bernet, D. B., Prasuhn, V., and Weingartner, R.: Surface water floods in Switzerland: what insurance claim records tell us about the damage in space and time, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1659–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1659-2017, 2017.
Birkmann, J.: Risk, in: Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards, edited by: Bobrowsky, P. T., Springer, Dordrecht, 856–862, 2013.
Borter, P.: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren: Methode, Umwelt-Materialien, Nr. 107/I, 117 pp., 1999.
Bründl, M., Romang, H. E., Bischof, N., and Rheinberger, C. M.: The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 801–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-801-2009, 2009.
Bubeck, P., de Moel, H., Bouwer, L. M., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: How reliable are projections of future flood damage?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3293–3306, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3293-2011, 2011.
Budiyono, Y., Aerts, J., Brinkman, J., Marfai, M. A., and Ward, P.: Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: A case study of Jakarta, Nat. Hazards, 75, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1327-9, 2015.
Bundesrat: Umgang mit Naturgefahren in der Schweiz – Bericht des Bundesrates, Bern, 131 pp., 2016.
Cammerer, H., Thieken, A. H., and Lammel, J.: Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3063–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, 2013.
Chen, K., McAneney, J., Blong, R., Leigh, R., Hunter, L., and Magill, C.: Defining area at risk and its effect in catastrophe loss estimation: A dasymetric mapping approach, Appl. Geogr., 24, 97–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2004.03.005, 2004.
de Bruijn, K. M., Wagenaar, D. J., Slager, K., de Bel, M., and Burzel, A.: Updated and improved method for flood damage assessment: SSM2015, Version 2, Rijkswaterstaat Water, Verkeer en Leefomgeving, 1220043-003, 125 pp., 2015.
de Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards, 58, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6, 2011.
de Moel, H., van Alphen, J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Flood maps in Europe – methods, availability and use, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 289–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-289-2009, 2009.
DEFRA, Departement for Environment, Food and Rual Affairs: National Appraisal of Assets at Risk from Flooding and Coastal Erosion, including the potential impact of climate change: Final Report, Flood Management Division, London, 64 pp., 2001.
Diaz Muriel, C.: Wide spread in construction prices across Europe in 2007, Statistics in focus 114, eurostat, 2008.
Ernst, J., Dewals, B. J., Detrembleur, S., Archambeau, P., Erpicum, S., and Pirotton, M.: Micro-scale flood risk analysis based on detailed 2D hydraulic modelling and high resolution geographic data, Nat. Hazards, 55, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9520-y, 2010.
European Environment Agency: Economic losses from climate-related extremes, IND-182-en, CSI042, CLIM 039, 16 pp., 2017.
European Parliament: Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risk: 2007/69/EC, 8 pp., 2007.
Federal Office for the Environment: Terms of Use Aquaprotect, available at: https://www.bafu.admin.ch/bafu/de/home/themen/naturgefahren/fachinformationen/naturgefahrensituation-und-raumnutzung/gefahrengrundlagen/aquaprotect/nutzungsbedingungen-aquaprotect.html (last access: 7 September 2018), 2008.
Fuchs, S., Keiler, M., and Zischg, A.: A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015.
Fuchs, S., Röthlisberger, V., Thaler, T., Zischg, A., and Keiler, M.: Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps, Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr., 107, 382–392, https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1235494, 2017.
Gerl, T., Kreibich, H., Franco, G., Marechal, D., and Schröter, K.: A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking, PloS one, 11, e0159791, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159791, 2016.
Glas, H., Jonckheere, M., Mandal, A., James-Williamson, S., Maeyer, P. de, and Deruyter, G.: A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: Case study for Annotto Bay, Jamaica, Nat. Hazards, 88, 1867–1891, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2920-5, 2017.
Hägi, A.: Die Bewertung von Liegenschaften, Zürich, 224 pp., 1961.
Hatzikyriakou, A. and Lin, N.: Simulating storm surge waves for structural vulnerability estimation and flood hazard mapping, Nat. Hazards, 89, 939–962, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3001-5, 2017.
ICPR, International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine: Rhine-Atlas: Flood maps of extreme event, available at: http://www.rheinatlas.de/ (last access: 7 September 2018), 2001.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014. Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers, 32 pp., 2014.
Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Barredo, J. I., Bates, P. D., Feyen, L., Gericke, A., Neal, J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012.
Jongman, B., Koks, E. E., Husby, T. G., and Ward, P. J.: Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1245–1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014, 2014.
Kleist, L., Thieken, A. H., Köhler, P., Müller, M., Seifert, I., Borst, D., and Werner, U.: Estimation of the regional stock of residential buildings as a basis for a comparative risk assessment in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 541–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-541-2006, 2006.
Klijn, F., Baan, P., de Bruijn, K., and Kwadijk, J. C. J.: Overstromingsrisico's in Nederland in een veranderend klimaat, 165 pp., 2007.
Koivumäki, L., Alho, P., Lotsari, E., Käyhkö, J., Saari, A., and Hyyppä, H.: Uncertainties in flood risk mapping: A case study on estimating building damages for a river flood in Finland, J. Flood Risk Manag., 3, 166–183, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01064.x, 2010.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Arnell, N., Mach, K., Muir-Wood, R., Brakenridge, G. R., Kron, W., Benito, G., Honda, Y., Takahashi, K., and Sherstyukov, B.: Flood risk and climate change: Global and regional perspectives, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411, 2014.
Liu, J., Hertel, T. W., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Delgado, M. S., and Ashfaq, M.: Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change, Climatic Change, 132, 741–749, 2015.
Lowe, D. J., Emsley, M. W., and Harding, A.: Predicting Construction Cost Using Multiple Regression Techniques, J. Constr. Eng. M., 132, 750–758, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2006)132:7(750), 2006.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A.: Review article “Assessment of economic flood damage”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1697–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010.
Mobiliar Lab: hochwasserrisiko.ch: Beschreibung Projekt und Vorgehen, available at: http://www.hochwasserrisiko.ch/HochwassergefaehrdungCH/Projekt.html (last access: 7 September 2018), 2016.
Molinari, D. and Scorzini, A. R.: On the Influence of Input Data Quality to Flood Damage Estimation: The Performance of the INSYDE Model, Water, 9, 688, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090688, 2017.
Naegeli, W. and Wenger, H.: Der Liegenschaftenschätzer, 4th Edn., Schulthess, Zürich, 328 pp., 1997.
Penning-Rowsell, E., Johnson, C., Tunstall, S., Tapsel, S., Morris, J., Chatterton, J., and Green, C.: The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Risk Management: A Handbook of Assessment Techniques, 89 pp., 2005.
Penning-Rowsell, E. C.: A realistic assessment of fluvial and coastal flood risk in England and Wales, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., 40, 44–61, https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.12053, 2015.
Röthlisberger, V., Zischg, A. P., and Keiler, M.: Identifying spatial clusters of flood exposure to support decision making in risk management, Sci. Total Environ., 598, 593–603, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.216, 2017.
Sonmez, R.: Parametric Range Estimating of Building Costs Using Regression Models and Bootstrap, J. Constr. Eng. M., 134, 1011–1016, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2008)134:12(1011), 2008.
SVKG and SEK/SVIT: Das Schweizerische Schätzerhandbuch: Das umfassende und praxisorientierte Lehrbuch über die wichtigsten Immobilien-Bewertungsmethoden der Schweiz, 4th Edn., 382 pp., 2012.
Thieken, A. H., Müller, M., Kleist, L., Seifert, I., Borst, D., and Werner, U.: Regionalisation of asset values for risk analyses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 167–178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-167-2006, 2006.
Thieken, A. H., Olschewski, A., Kreibich, H., Kobsch, S., and Merz, B.: Development and evaluation of FLEMOps – a new Flood Loss Estimation Model for the private sector, in: Flood Recovery, Innovation and Response, edited by: Proverbs, D., Brebbia, C. A., and Penning-Rowsell, E., WIT Trans. Ecol. Envir., 118, 315–324, 2008.
van Dyck, J. and Willems, P.: Probabilistic flood risk assessment over large geographical regions, Water Resour. Res., 49, 3330–3344, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20149, 2013.
Wagenaar, D., de Jong, J., and Bouwer, L. M.: Multi-variable flood damage modelling with limited data using supervised learning approaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1683-2017, 2017.
Wagenaar, D. J., de Bruijn, K. M., Bouwer, L. M., and de Moel, H.: Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1-2016, 2016.
Winter, B., Schneeberger, K., Huttenlau, M., and Stötter, J.: Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model, Nat. Hazards, 91, 431–446, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3135-5, 2018.
Wuertz, D.: Package “fExtremes”: Description of package version 3010.81, 37 pp., 2015.
Wünsch, A., Herrmann, U., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: The role of disaggregation of asset values in flood loss estimation: a comparison of different modeling approaches at the Mulde River, Germany, Environ. Manage., 44, 524–541, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-009-9335-3, 2009.
Zhai, G., Fukuzono, T., and Ikeda, S.: Modeling Flood Damage: Case of Tokai Flood 2000, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 4, 77–92, 2005.
Short summary
We investigate the role of building value estimation schemes within flood exposure analyses on regional to national scales. Our results for Switzerland suggest that models based on individual buildings produce more reliable results than models based on surface area, but only if they consider the buildings' volume. Simple models tend to underestimate the exposure, which results in suboptimal allocation of resources for protection measures in decision making processes based on cost efficiency.
We investigate the role of building value estimation schemes within flood exposure analyses on...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint