Articles | Volume 18, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Probabilistic landslide ensemble prediction systems: lessons to be learned from hydrology
Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna,
Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Martin Mergili
Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna,
Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Gregor-Mendel-Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
Benni Thiebes
Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna,
Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Vienna, Austria
German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV),
Kaiser-Friedrich-Straße 13, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Thomas Glade
Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna,
Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Viewed
Total article views: 4,312 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 12 Dec 2017)
HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2,760 | 1,423 | 129 | 4,312 | 91 | 101 |
- HTML: 2,760
- PDF: 1,423
- XML: 129
- Total: 4,312
- BibTeX: 91
- EndNote: 101
Total article views: 3,326 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 16 Aug 2018)
HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2,175 | 1,042 | 109 | 3,326 | 85 | 88 |
- HTML: 2,175
- PDF: 1,042
- XML: 109
- Total: 3,326
- BibTeX: 85
- EndNote: 88
Total article views: 986 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 12 Dec 2017)
HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
585 | 381 | 20 | 986 | 6 | 13 |
- HTML: 585
- PDF: 381
- XML: 20
- Total: 986
- BibTeX: 6
- EndNote: 13
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 4,312 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,959 with geography defined
and 353 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,326 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,009 with geography defined
and 317 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 986 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 950 with geography defined
and 36 with unknown origin.
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physically-based rainfall-induced landslide thresholds for the Tianshui area of Loess Plateau, China by TRIGRS model S. Ma et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107499
- Development and validation of the terrain stability model for assessing landslide instability during heavy rain infiltration A. Gutiérrez-Martín et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-721-2019
- Spatial modeling of land subsidence using machine learning models and statistical methods M. Sekkeravani et al. 10.1007/s11356-021-18037-6
- Stochastic seepage and slope stability analysis using vine-copula based multivariate random field approach: Consideration to non-Gaussian spatial and cross-dependence structure of hydraulic parameters A. Sharma et al. 10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103918
- Double-index rainfall warning and probabilistic physically based model for fast-moving landslide hazard analysis in subtropical-typhoon area T. Zeng et al. 10.1007/s10346-023-02187-4
- Land Subsidence Susceptibility Mapping Using Bayesian, Functional, and Meta-Ensemble Machine Learning Models H. Oh et al. 10.3390/app9061248
- Novel Bayesian framework for calibration of spatially distributed physical-based landslide prediction models. I. Depina et al. 10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103660
- A Regional-Scale Landslide Warning System Based on 20 Years of Operational Experience S. Segoni et al. 10.3390/w10101297
- Physically-based landslide susceptibility analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in a tropical mountain basin R. Marin & Á. Mattos 10.1080/17499518.2019.1633582
- Recent advancements of landslide hydrology R. Greco et al. 10.1002/wat2.1675
- A GIS-physically-based emergency methodology for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslide zonation A. Gutiérrez-Martín 10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107121
- Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks Considering the Factor Selection Method and Various Non-Linear Activation Functions D. Lee et al. 10.3390/rs12071194
- Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation Using Hybrid Integration of Evidential Belief Function and Machine Learning Techniques Y. Li & W. Chen 10.3390/w12010113
- Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico R. Baum et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024
- Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility of the Wiśnickie Foothills Mts. (The Flysch Carpathians, Poland) Using Selected Machine Learning Algorithms T. Zydroń et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.872192
- Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling A. Felsberg et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023
- Improving categorical and continuous accuracy of precipitation forecasts by integrating Empirical Quantile Mapping and Bernoulli-Gamma-Gaussian distribution L. Li et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107133
- Temporal prediction modeling for rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards using extreme value distribution J. Lee et al. 10.1007/s10346-020-01502-7
- Integrating local pore water pressure monitoring in territorial early warning systems for weather-induced landslides G. Pecoraro & M. Calvello 10.1007/s10346-020-01599-w
- High-Resolution Lidar-Derived DEM for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using AHP and Fuzzy Logic in Serdang, Malaysia J. Okoli et al. 10.3390/geosciences13020034
- Insight from a Physical-Based Model for the Triggering Mechanism of Loess Landslides Induced by the 2013 Tianshui Heavy Rainfall Event S. Ma et al. 10.3390/w15030443
- A Tool for the Automatic Aggregation and Validation of the Results of Physically Based Distributed Slope Stability Models M. Bulzinetti et al. 10.3390/w13172313
- A New Approach Based on Balancing Composite Motion Optimization and Deep Neural Networks for Spatial Prediction of Landslides at Tropical Cyclone Areas T. Tuan et al. 10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3291411
- Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars C. Li et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022
- Development of a data-driven model for spatial and temporal shallow landslide probability of occurrence at catchment scale M. Bordoni et al. 10.1007/s10346-020-01592-3
- Preface: Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall thresholds, warning models, performance evaluation and risk perception S. Segoni et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-3179-2018
- Landslides in the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro: A Proposal for the Semi-Automated Definition of Multiple Rainfall Thresholds A. Rosi et al. 10.3390/geosciences9050203
- Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions T. van Woerkom et al. 10.3390/w13213041
- Local-Scale Weather Forecasts over a Complex Terrain in an Early Warning Framework: Performance Analysis for the Val d’Agri (Southern Italy) Case Study G. Giunta et al. 10.1155/2022/2179246
- Metodologías para la evaluación de la amenaza por movimientos en masa como parte de los estudios básico de amenaza: caso de estudio municipio de Andes, Antioquia, Colombia E. Aristizábal et al. 10.18273/revbol.v44n3-2022009
- Optimization of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning through false alarm reduction and a multi-source validation N. Nocentini et al. 10.1007/s10346-023-02176-7
- Assessment of the capability of modern reanalyses to simulate precipitation in warm months using adjusted radar precipitation V. Bližňák et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101121
- Triggering conditions and propagation of the December 2019 Palma Campania landslide: Implications for residual hazard estimation at recurrent landslide sites C. Sepe et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2023.107177
- Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system S. Segoni et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-807-2018
- Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data H. Pan et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018
- Landslide susceptibility mapping using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles B. Pham et al. 10.1080/10106049.2021.1914746
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physically-based rainfall-induced landslide thresholds for the Tianshui area of Loess Plateau, China by TRIGRS model S. Ma et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107499
- Development and validation of the terrain stability model for assessing landslide instability during heavy rain infiltration A. Gutiérrez-Martín et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-721-2019
- Spatial modeling of land subsidence using machine learning models and statistical methods M. Sekkeravani et al. 10.1007/s11356-021-18037-6
- Stochastic seepage and slope stability analysis using vine-copula based multivariate random field approach: Consideration to non-Gaussian spatial and cross-dependence structure of hydraulic parameters A. Sharma et al. 10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103918
- Double-index rainfall warning and probabilistic physically based model for fast-moving landslide hazard analysis in subtropical-typhoon area T. Zeng et al. 10.1007/s10346-023-02187-4
- Land Subsidence Susceptibility Mapping Using Bayesian, Functional, and Meta-Ensemble Machine Learning Models H. Oh et al. 10.3390/app9061248
- Novel Bayesian framework for calibration of spatially distributed physical-based landslide prediction models. I. Depina et al. 10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103660
- A Regional-Scale Landslide Warning System Based on 20 Years of Operational Experience S. Segoni et al. 10.3390/w10101297
- Physically-based landslide susceptibility analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in a tropical mountain basin R. Marin & Á. Mattos 10.1080/17499518.2019.1633582
- Recent advancements of landslide hydrology R. Greco et al. 10.1002/wat2.1675
- A GIS-physically-based emergency methodology for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslide zonation A. Gutiérrez-Martín 10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107121
- Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks Considering the Factor Selection Method and Various Non-Linear Activation Functions D. Lee et al. 10.3390/rs12071194
- Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation Using Hybrid Integration of Evidential Belief Function and Machine Learning Techniques Y. Li & W. Chen 10.3390/w12010113
- Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico R. Baum et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024
- Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility of the Wiśnickie Foothills Mts. (The Flysch Carpathians, Poland) Using Selected Machine Learning Algorithms T. Zydroń et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.872192
- Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling A. Felsberg et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023
- Improving categorical and continuous accuracy of precipitation forecasts by integrating Empirical Quantile Mapping and Bernoulli-Gamma-Gaussian distribution L. Li et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107133
- Temporal prediction modeling for rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards using extreme value distribution J. Lee et al. 10.1007/s10346-020-01502-7
- Integrating local pore water pressure monitoring in territorial early warning systems for weather-induced landslides G. Pecoraro & M. Calvello 10.1007/s10346-020-01599-w
- High-Resolution Lidar-Derived DEM for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using AHP and Fuzzy Logic in Serdang, Malaysia J. Okoli et al. 10.3390/geosciences13020034
- Insight from a Physical-Based Model for the Triggering Mechanism of Loess Landslides Induced by the 2013 Tianshui Heavy Rainfall Event S. Ma et al. 10.3390/w15030443
- A Tool for the Automatic Aggregation and Validation of the Results of Physically Based Distributed Slope Stability Models M. Bulzinetti et al. 10.3390/w13172313
- A New Approach Based on Balancing Composite Motion Optimization and Deep Neural Networks for Spatial Prediction of Landslides at Tropical Cyclone Areas T. Tuan et al. 10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3291411
- Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars C. Li et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022
- Development of a data-driven model for spatial and temporal shallow landslide probability of occurrence at catchment scale M. Bordoni et al. 10.1007/s10346-020-01592-3
- Preface: Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall thresholds, warning models, performance evaluation and risk perception S. Segoni et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-3179-2018
- Landslides in the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro: A Proposal for the Semi-Automated Definition of Multiple Rainfall Thresholds A. Rosi et al. 10.3390/geosciences9050203
- Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions T. van Woerkom et al. 10.3390/w13213041
- Local-Scale Weather Forecasts over a Complex Terrain in an Early Warning Framework: Performance Analysis for the Val d’Agri (Southern Italy) Case Study G. Giunta et al. 10.1155/2022/2179246
- Metodologías para la evaluación de la amenaza por movimientos en masa como parte de los estudios básico de amenaza: caso de estudio municipio de Andes, Antioquia, Colombia E. Aristizábal et al. 10.18273/revbol.v44n3-2022009
- Optimization of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning through false alarm reduction and a multi-source validation N. Nocentini et al. 10.1007/s10346-023-02176-7
- Assessment of the capability of modern reanalyses to simulate precipitation in warm months using adjusted radar precipitation V. Bližňák et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101121
- Triggering conditions and propagation of the December 2019 Palma Campania landslide: Implications for residual hazard estimation at recurrent landslide sites C. Sepe et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2023.107177
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system S. Segoni et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-807-2018
- Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data H. Pan et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018
- Landslide susceptibility mapping using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles B. Pham et al. 10.1080/10106049.2021.1914746
Latest update: 22 Nov 2024
Short summary
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint