Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Research article
15 May 2018
Research article |  | 15 May 2018

Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

Beatrice Dittes, Maria Kaiser, Olga Špačková, Wolfgang Rieger, Markus Disse, and Daniel Straub

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Cited articles

Apel, H., Aronica, G. T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk analyses – how detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98,, 2009.
Baker, J., Straub, D., Nishijima, K., and Faber, M.: On the assessment of robustness I: A general framework, in JCSS and IABSE Workshop on Robustness of Structures, Watford, 2005.
Bosshard, T., Carambia, M., Goergen, K., Kotlarski, S., Krahe, P., Zappa, M. and Schär, C.: Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of, hydrological climate-impact projections, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1523–1536,, 2013.
Bubeck, P., de Moel, H., Bouwer, L. M., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: How reliable are projections of future flood damage?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3293–3306,, 2011.
Short summary
We study flood protection options in a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany. Protection systems are evaluated probabilistically, taking into account climatic and other uncertainties as well as the possibility of future adjustments. Despite large uncertainty in damage, cost, and climate, we arrive at a rough recommendation. Hence, one can make good decisions under large uncertainty. The results also show it is preferable to plan risk-based rather than protecting from a specific design flood.
Final-revised paper