Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1631–1651, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1631-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1631–1651, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1631-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 25 Sep 2017
Research article | 25 Sep 2017
MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events
Saif Shabou et al.
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Antoine Blanc, Juliette Blanchet, and Jean-Dominique Creutin
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-69, 2021
Preprint under review for WCD
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Local weather is governed by the atmospheric circulation, which can be viewed as the air flow on a large scale and at high elevation. In this work, we show some recent evolutions of the air flows coming from the Atlantic ocean and from the Mediterranean Sea to Western Europe, but also for Anticyclonic conditions (reflecting no air flow). These recent evolutions could have implications for temperature and precipitation variability and extremes over Western Europe.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-169, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
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We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effect and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Derrick K. Danso, Sandrine Anquetin, Arona Diedhiou, Kouakou Kouadio, and Arsène T. Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, 2020
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The atmospheric and surface conditions that exist during the occurrence of daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) and their influence on solar radiation were investigated in West Africa. During the monsoon season, these LLCs are linked to high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. Their occurrence leads to a strong reduction in the incoming solar radiation and has large impacts on the surface energy budget.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-112, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The impact of the initial soil moisture anomalies can persist for up to three-four months and is greater on temperature than on precipitation over West Africa. The strongest homogeneous impact on temperature is located over the Central Sahel with the peak of change at −1.5 °C and 0.5 °C respectively in wet and dry experiment. The strongest impact on precipitation in wet and dry experiments is found over West and Central Sahel with the peak of change about 40 % and −8 % respectively.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-113, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The impact of the anomalies in initial soil moisture is more significant on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes. A stronger impact is found on maximum temperature than on minimum temperature. The impact on extreme precipitation indices is homogeneous, especially over the Central Sahel and dry (wet) experiments tend to decrease (increase) number of precipitation extreme events and not their intensity.
Galateia Terti, Isabelle Ruin, Milan Kalas, Ilona Láng, Arnau Cangròs i Alonso, Tommaso Sabbatini, and Valerio Lorini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 507–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-507-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-507-2019, 2019
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First applications of the ANYCaRE experiment revealed that multi-model impact-based outputs help forecasters and civil protection to shape a holistic view of the situation and enhance their confidence in specific emergency activities. This interdisciplinary work is conducted in the frame of the ANYWHERE European project, which aims to provide institutions across Europe with a decision-support tool to better anticipate and respond to extreme weather and climate events.
Florian Raymond, Bruno Wilhelm, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-100, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We focus on the role of precipitation on the high magnitude flood generation to explore in what extent such events could be explained by only atmospheric variables. The role of the precipitation accumulations prior to the flood day progressively decreases when considering floods of weaker magnitude, suggesting a higher diversity of processes involved in the generation of e.g. annual flooding. Our results open new perspectives for flood hazard assessments directly based on climate model outputs.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Filippo Giorgi, Sandrine Anquetin, Adama Bamba, Adama Diawara, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1261–1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1261-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1261-2018, 2018
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Simulations of regional climate are very sensitive to physical parameterization schemes, particularly over the tropics where convection plays a major role in monsoon dynamics. The latest version of RegCM4 was used to assess the performance and sensitivity of the simulated West African climate system to different convection schemes. The configuration of RegCM4 with CLM4.5 as a land surface model and the Emanuel convective scheme is recommended for the study of the West African climate.
Francesco Marra, Elisa Destro, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Davide Zoccatelli, Jean Dominique Creutin, Fausto Guzzetti, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4525–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017, 2017
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Previous studies have reported a systematic underestimation of debris flow occurrence thresholds, due to the use of sparse networks in non-stationary rain fields. We analysed high-resolution radar data to show that spatially aggregated estimates (e.g. satellite data) largely reduce this issue, in light of a reduced estimation variance. Our findings are transferable to other situations in which lower envelope curves are used to predict point-like events in the presence of non-stationary fields.
Marc Bertran Rojo, Elise Beck, and Céline Lutoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 581–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-581-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-581-2017, 2017
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The Lorca earthquake (Spain; 11 May 2011) killed 9 people, injured over 300 and caused huge damage. The vicinity of buildings in the street was the most unsafe area for people. This article proposes a method to study individual evacuation after a seism. Applied to Lorca, it shows the spatio-temporal variability of individual exposure in the street after the shake. The results of this study are helpful to preventive actions in places with moderate seismicity, stressing the danger of the street.
B. François, B. Hingray, F. Hendrickx, and J. D. Creutin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3787–3800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, 2014
I. Braud, P.-A. Ayral, C. Bouvier, F. Branger, G. Delrieu, J. Le Coz, G. Nord, J.-P. Vandervaere, S. Anquetin, M. Adamovic, J. Andrieu, C. Batiot, B. Boudevillain, P. Brunet, J. Carreau, A. Confoland, J.-F. Didon-Lescot, J.-M. Domergue, J. Douvinet, G. Dramais, R. Freydier, S. Gérard, J. Huza, E. Leblois, O. Le Bourgeois, R. Le Boursicaud, P. Marchand, P. Martin, L. Nottale, N. Patris, B. Renard, J.-L. Seidel, J.-D. Taupin, O. Vannier, B. Vincendon, and A. Wijbrans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3733–3761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3733-2014, 2014
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Luis Moya, Fernando Garcia, Carlos Gonzales, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Zavala, Miguel Estrada, Fumio Yamazaki, Shunichi Koshimura, Erick Mas, and Bruno Adriano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 65–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, 2022
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Informal occupation of unused lands for settlements is a critical issue in Peru. In most cases, such areas are unsafe against natural hazards. We performed a time-series analysis of Sentinel-1 images at recent informal settlements in Lima. The result suggests that a low-cost and sustainable monitoring system of informal settlements can be implemented.
Stephen Cunningham, Steven Schuldt, Christopher Chini, and Justin Delorit
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The severity of disaster-induced mental health illness outcomes varies based on factors such as socioeconomic standing, age, and degree of exposure. This research proposes a resource allocation framework allowing decision-makers the capability to assess the capacity and scalability of early, intermediate, and long-term mental health treatment and recovery. Ultimately, this framework can inform policy and operational decisions based on community needs and constrained resources post-disaster.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3749–3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, 2021
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The results from two Mediterranean case studies, in north Morocco and west Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions for risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, 2021
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This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3439–3447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3439-2021, 2021
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COVID-19 has affected humankind in an unprecedented way, and it has changed how people perceive multiple risks. In this paper, we compare public risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden in two different phases of the pandemic. We found that people are more worried about risks related to recently experienced events. This finding is in line with the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind.
Mia Wannewitz and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3285–3322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, 2021
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Focusing on Jakarta as a city with high flood risk and adaptation pressure, this study presents findings from a systematic literature review of adaptation options and the adaptation solution space to counter the city’s flood problem. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards protection against flooding, while soft and hybrid adaptation options are less considered. This significantly influences flood risk management, including its effectiveness and sustainability.
Mihai Ciprian Mărgărint, Mihai Niculiță, Giulia Roder, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3251–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, 2021
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Local stakeholders' knowledge plays a deciding role in emergencies, supporting rescue officers in natural hazard events; coordinating; and assisting, both physically and psychologically, the affected populations. Their risk perception was assessed using a questionnaire for an area in north-eastern Romania. The results show low preparedness and reveal substantial distinctions among stakeholders and different risks based on their cognitive and behavioral roles in their communities.
Meng Zhang, Xue Qiao, Barnabas C. Seyler, Baofeng Di, Yuan Wang, and Ya Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3243–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, 2021
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Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) can help reduce losses, but their effectiveness depends on adequate public perception and understanding of EEWSs. This study examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. We found a big gap existed between the EEWS's message, the public's perception of it, and their response. The study highlights the importance of gauging EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency.
Mohammad Shirvani and Georges Kesserwani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3175–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021, 2021
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Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual countermeasure taken at the onset of a flooding event. The flood–pedestrian simulator simulates evacuation of people prior to and during a flood event. It provides information on the spatio-temporal responses of individuals, evacuation time, and possible safe destinations. This study demonstrates the simulator when considering more realistic human body and age characteristics and responses to floodwater.
Stefano Carlino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3097–3112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, 2021
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This paper reports a brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan district, where the presence of three active volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island) exposes this highly urbanized area to hazard of potential eruptions. I am trying to obtain new food for thought for the scientific community working to mitigate the volcanic risk of this area, revisiting about 40 years of debates around volcanic risk in Naples.
David Nortes Martínez, Frédéric Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, and Juliette Rouchier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3057–3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, 2021
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Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. We focus on flood damage induced by the interactions between economic activities. By modeling the production processes of a cooperative wine-making system, we show that these interactions are important depending on their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3031–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, 2021
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A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparisons with previous studies and yearbook records indicate the reliability of our model. The modelled results are openly accessible and can be conveniently updated when more detailed census or statistics data are available.
Elena Mondino, Anna Scolobig, Marco Borga, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2811–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, 2021
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Survey data collected over time can provide new insights on how different people respond to floods and can be used in models to study the complex coevolution of human–water systems. We present two methods to collect such data, and we compare the respective results. Risk awareness decreases only for women, while preparedness takes different trajectories depending on the damage suffered. These results support a more diverse representation of society in flood risk modelling and risk management.
Paula Freire, Marta Rodrigues, André B. Fortunato, and Alberto Freitas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2503–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, 2021
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This paper presents a risk assessment approach addressing the two main natural risks that affect agricultural estuarine lowlands: the scarcity of freshwater for irrigation and marine submersion. The approach is applied to an important agricultural area located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results show that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk mainly when the possible impact of climate change in risk levels is considered.
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, 2021
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The Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) archives drought impact reports across the European Alpine region with an increasing number of impacts over time. The most affected sectors are agriculture and livestock farming and public water supply, for which management strategies are essential for future climate regimes. We show spatial heterogeneity and seasonal differences between the impacted sectors and between impacts triggered by soil moisture drought and hydrological drought.
Luigi Cesarini, Rui Figueiredo, Beatrice Monteleone, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2379–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2379-2021, 2021
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Weather index insurance is an innovative program used to manage the risk associated with natural disasters, providing instantaneous financial support to the insured party. This paper proposes a methodology that exploits the power of machine learning to identify extreme events for which a payout from the insurance could be delivered. The improvements achieved using these algorithms are an encouraging step forward in the promotion and implementation of this insurance instrument.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-200, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision-makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Chiara Arrighi, Maria Pregnolato, and Fabio Castelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1955–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, 2021
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Floods may affect critical infrastructure which provides essential services to people. We analyse the impact of floods on road networks and water supply systems, and we investigate how cascade effects propagate if interdependencies among networks are not considered. The analysis shows that if preparedness plans include information on accessibility to key sections of water supply plants, less people suffer from water shortage in case of flood. The method is tested in the city of Florence (Italy).
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-152, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and drought impacts mainly found in the frameworks of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWS.
Donghoon Lee, Hassan Ahmadul, Jonathan Patz, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1807–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021, 2021
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This article assesses the thematic and composite social and health vulnerability of Bangladesh to floods. Tailored vulnerability, weighted by flood forecast and satellite inundation, can be used to predict the massive impacts of the August 2017 flood event. This approach has several advantages and practical implications, including the potential to promote targeted and coordinated disaster management and health practices.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
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We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1513–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, 2021
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The review of flood vulnerability indices revealed that (1) temporal dynamic aspects were often disregarded, (2) coping and adaptive capacity indicators were frequently ignored, as obtaining these data demand time and effort, and (3) most studies neither applied sensitivity (90.5 %) or uncertainty analyses (96.8 %) nor validated the results (86.3 %). The study highlights the importance of addressing these gaps to produce scientifically rigorous and comparable research.
Kai Wan Yuen, Tang Thi Hanh, Vu Duong Quynh, Adam D. Switzer, Paul Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1473–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, 2021
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We used flow diagrams to represent the ways in which anthropogenic land use and natural hazards have affected rice production in the two
mega-deltas of Vietnam. Anthropogenic developments meant to improve productivity may create negative feedbacks on rice production and quality. Natural hazards further amplify problems created by human activities. A systems-thinking approach can yield nuanced perspectives for tackling environmental challenges.
Mathias Raschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-86, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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As derived from extreme value theory (part of stochastic), the occurrence of natural catastrophes can be quantified stochastically by the combined return period (CRP), the (weighted) mean of local return periods. This can be tested during application as shown for extratropical cyclones (winter storms) over Germany. Moreover, the risk curve (return period of losses) can be estimated easily. This and the influence of the regime of spatial dependence is also demonstrated in the example.
Yanshen Wu, Hao Guo, Anyu Zhang, and Jing'ai Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1209–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1209-2021, 2021
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To improve the quantitative degree of spatial analysis of vulnerability, we construct grid-scale drought vulnerability curves of European winter wheat based on model simulation, and we discuss their spatial differences through feature points and clustering features. These vulnerability curves show zonal differences, which can be divided into five loss types, and the vulnerability increases from south to north. The results can provide guidance for regionalized risk management.
Ringo Ossewaarde, Tatiana Filatova, Yola Georgiadou, Andreas Hartmann, Gül Özerol, Karin Pfeffer, Peter Stegmaier, Rene Torenvlied, Mascha van der Voort, Jord Warmink, and Bas Borsje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1119-2021, 2021
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The aim of this paper is to review and structure current developments in resilience research in the field of climate change studies, in terms of the approaches, definitions, models, and commitments that are typical for naturalist and constructivist research and propose a research agenda of topics distilled from current developments in resilience research.
Narjiss Satour, Otmane Raji, Nabil El Moçayd, Ilias Kacimi, and Nadia Kassou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1101–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, 2021
Nathalie Long, Pierre Cornut, and Virginia Kolb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1087–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1087-2021, 2021
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Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme events and enforces the development of adaptation strategies to face coastal risk. These strategies modify the inequalities barely considered during the decision-making process and question the resilience of these territories. On the French Atlantic coast, the study reveals that the
managed retreatstrategy seems the most sustainable over time, while the
holding the coastlinestrategy reinforces inequalities and costs for the whole society.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, 2021
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Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Zhenfeng Yao, Jia Gao, Enjin Zhao, and Lizhe Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 439–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-439-2021, 2021
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The study provides a comprehensive assessment and zonation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of storm surge caused by the designed typhoon scenarios in the coastal area of Huizhou. The risk maps can help decision-makers to develop evacuation strategies to minimize civilian casualties. The risk analysis can be utilized to identify risk regions to reduce economic losses. The proposed methodology and procedure can be applied to any coastal city in China for making risk assessments.
Samuel Eberenz, Samuel Lüthi, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 393–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021, 2021
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Asset damage caused by tropical cyclones is often computed based on impact functions mapping wind speed to damage. However, a lack of regional impact functions can lead to a substantial bias in tropical cyclone risk estimates. Here, we present regionally calibrated impact functions, as well as global risk estimates. Our results are relevant for researchers, model developers, and practitioners in the context of global risk assessments, climate change adaptation, and physical risk disclosure.
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, 2021
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How representative are local building insurers' claims to assess winter windstorm risk? In our case study of Zurich, we use a risk model for windstorm building damages and compare three different inputs: insurance claims and historical and probabilistic windstorm datasets. We find that long-term risk is more robustly assessed based on windstorm datasets than on claims data only. Our open-access method allows European building insurers to complement their risk assessment with modelling results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021, 2021
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The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
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This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021, 2021
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Large volcanic eruptions are rare events; however, they may cause significant economic losses. This work explores a specific type of insurance (parametric insurance) applied to such events. Unlike traditional insurance where payouts occur after often lengthy loss assessments, this type of insurance makes automatic and prompt payments on the basis of the eruption attaining threshold values for objective and easily measurable characteristics (height and direction of the eruption column).
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-414, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In this study we estimate the impacts of sea level rise on extreme sea level events over the North Adriatic Italian coast up to 2100, and perform a cost-benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. Our findings represent a useful indication for urban planners and risk researchers all around the world, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return of that investments.
Stefan Oberndorfer, Philip Sander, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020, 2020
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The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
Alexandra Nauditt, Kerstin Stahl, Erasmo Rodríguez, Christian Birkel, Rosa Maria Formiga-Johnsson, Kallio Marko, Hamish Hann, Lars Ribbe, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, and Joschka Thurner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Recurrent droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries. We used gridded drought hazard and vulnerability data sets to map drought risk in four mesoscale rural tropical study regions in Latin America and Vietnam/Cambodia. Our risk maps clearly identified drought risk hotspots and displayed spatial and sector-wise distribution of hazard and vulnerability. As results were confirmed by local stakeholders our approach provides relevant information for drought managers in the Tropics.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, 2020
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INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020, 2020
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We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Huaming Yu, Yuhang Shen, Ryan M. Kelly, Xin Qi, Kejian Wu, Songlin Li, Haiqing Yu, and Xianwen Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2447–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2447-2020, 2020
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This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges for coastal cities. The indicator system is applied to Shenzhen, China, and socioeconomic impacts are discovered in the results. Exposure, sensitivity, and resilience all show an increasing trend from 1986 to 2016, as resilience accounts for the largest increase and is connected to a decreasing social vulnerability trend.
Tzu-Ling Chen, Tzu-Yuan Chao, and Hao-Teng Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2433–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2433-2020, 2020
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Although disaster experience does indeed play an important role in helping people become aware of earthquake risk, disaster experience does not necessarily increase people’s willingness to retrofit their houses. People with higher education and certain occupations represent those who might have more available resources, and therefore they might become more willing to prepare for and respond to disasters.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020
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There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Dina D'Ayala, Kai Wang, Yuan Yan, Helen Smith, Ashleigh Massam, Valeriya Filipova, and Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020, 2020
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A localized empirical model consisting of multilevel parameters has been built to evaluate the flood vulnerability of residential buildings in a heritage community of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A new economic loss model is developed to quantify the flood risk in terms of replacement cost, taking into account both specific vulnerability and a normalized depth–damage ratio function. The findings provide multiscale flood-resistant strategies for the protection of individual residential buildings.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, 2020
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Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Elena Petrova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1969–1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1969-2020, 2020
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Using the information of the author's database, contributions of natural hazards and adverse weather to occurrences of different types of transport accidents and traffic disruptions including road, railway, air, and water transport were revealed. Regional differences in the risk of transport accidents and traffic disruptions caused by adverse natural impacts between Russian federal regions were found. The resulting maps were created and analyzed. Regions most at risk were identified.
Christoph Scheingraber and Martin Käser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1903–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1903-2020, 2020
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Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is widely used in the insurance industry to model losses to insured portfolios by earthquake events. Risk items are often only known to be located within an administrative geographical zone, but precise coordinates remain unknown to the modeler. We analyze spatial seismic hazard and loss rate variation inside administrative zones in western Indonesia. Building upon this, we present a novel framework for efficient treatment of portfolio location uncertainty.
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Short summary
This study describes the development of a model, called MobRISK, for assessing motorists' exposure to road flooding. MobRISK combines sociodemographic, travel-activity and hydrometeorological data in order to simulate the number and the profile of exposed persons to road flooding. The first application of MobRISK in a case study in southern France enabled the identification of the most dangerous road sections based on a spatiotemporal exposure index and the profile of most exposed people.
This study describes the development of a model, called MobRISK, for assessing motorists'...
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