Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing  climate

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 1

Research article

|

21 Jan 2016

Research article |

| 21 Jan 2016

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

I. Lehtonen, A. Venäläinen, M. Kämäräinen, H. Peltola, and H. Gregow

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Aug 2015	22	17	5	44
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Nov 2015	14	7	3	24
Dec 2015	1	2	0	3
Jan 2016	57	19	1	77
Feb 2016	57	33	3	93
Mar 2016	32	12	0	44
Apr 2016	18	10	1	29
May 2016	19	17	1	37
Jun 2016	12	6	2	20
Jul 2016	10	7	1	18
Aug 2016	8	8	1	17
Sep 2016	7	5	2	14
Oct 2016	6	1	1	8
Nov 2016	5	2	2	9
Dec 2016	6	4	0	10
Jan 2017	14	8	0	22
Feb 2017	8	6	0	14
Mar 2017	22	11	0	33
Apr 2017	20	18	0	38
May 2017	20	15	2	37
Jun 2017	16	10	1	27
Jul 2017	11	6	0	17
Aug 2017	14	17	2	33
Sep 2017	11	13	0	24
Oct 2017	7	11	0	18
Nov 2017	9	10	3	22
Dec 2017	12	11	2	25
Jan 2018	13	14	0	27
Feb 2018	3	6	1	10
Mar 2018	19	16	2	37
Apr 2018	8	14	0	22
May 2018	11	9	1	21
Jun 2018	12	8	0	20
Jul 2018	14	9	0	23
Aug 2018	19	8	0	27
Sep 2018	18	13	3	34
Oct 2018	23	12	4	39
Nov 2018	26	15	4	45
Dec 2018	18	4	0	22
Jan 2019	20	9	4	33
Feb 2019	12	8	4	24
Mar 2019	17	10	3	30
Apr 2019	13	5	3	21
May 2019	14	10	3	27
Jun 2019	14	15	6	35
Jul 2019	21	10	41	72
Aug 2019	14	7	22	43
Sep 2019	18	9	16	43
Oct 2019	16	4	25	45
Nov 2019	24	19	49	92
Dec 2019	10	9	81	100
Jan 2020	20	11	86	117
Feb 2020	18	11	94	123
Mar 2020	10	10	59	79
Apr 2020	5	6	4	15
May 2020	4	7	4	15
Jun 2020	24	12	7	43
Jul 2020	32	22	18	72
Aug 2020	9	15	12	36
Sep 2020	12	8	8	28
Oct 2020	12	9	5	26
Nov 2020	17	17	4	38
Dec 2020	14	13	6	33
Jan 2021	22	14	6	42
Feb 2021	16	8	6	30
Mar 2021	16	8	8	32
Apr 2021	20	15	9	44
May 2021	11	15	8	34
Jun 2021	10	12	2	24
Jul 2021	6	6	1	13
Aug 2021	15	19	1	35
Sep 2021	13	14	1	28
Oct 2021	5	38	1	44
Nov 2021	20	39	1	60
Dec 2021	13	9	1	23
Jan 2022	18	17	0	35
Feb 2022	15	8	5	28
Mar 2022	12	12	1	25
Apr 2022	12	12	3	27
May 2022	12	16	3	31
Jun 2022	14	12	2	28
Jul 2022	5	5	3	13
Aug 2022	20	3	0	23
Sep 2022	14	17	0	31
Oct 2022	15	10	2	27
Nov 2022	24	14	1	39
Dec 2022	18	11	0	29
Jan 2023	28	18	3	49
Feb 2023	18	6	2	26
Mar 2023	23	26	2	51
Apr 2023	12	18	0	30
May 2023	34	9	4	47
Jun 2023	40	5	1	46
Jul 2023	20	10	0	30
Aug 2023	38	9	3	50
Sep 2023	115	18	3	136
Oct 2023	230	12	1	243
Nov 2023	245	6	0	251
Dec 2023	27	4	1	32
Jan 2024	21	7	1	29
Feb 2024	28	12	1	41
Mar 2024	18	14	4	36
Apr 2024	29	11	3	43
May 2024	44	12	4	60
Jun 2024	35	13	1	49
Jul 2024	29	11	7	47
Aug 2024	70	6	3	79
Sep 2024	43	12	3	58
Oct 2024	39	13	3	55
Nov 2024	26	11	1	38
Dec 2024	24	4	2	30
Jan 2025	30	8	5	43
Feb 2025	37	17	1	55
Mar 2025	29	15	1	45
Apr 2025	33	16	0	49
May 2025	42	11	1	54
Jun 2025	54	23	0	77
Jul 2025	47	24	5	76
Aug 2025	42	21	1	64
Sep 2025	54	22	2	78
Oct 2025	37	20	4	61
Nov 2025	8	5	0	13

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 Aug 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Aug 2015	22	17	5	44
Sep 2015	16	9	2	27
Oct 2015	11	6	0	17
Nov 2015	14	7	3	24
Dec 2015	1	2	0	3
Jan 2016	57	19	1	77
Feb 2016	57	33	3	93
Mar 2016	32	12	0	44
Apr 2016	18	10	1	29
May 2016	19	17	1	37
Jun 2016	12	6	2	20
Jul 2016	10	7	1	18
Aug 2016	8	8	1	17
Sep 2016	7	5	2	14
Oct 2016	6	1	1	8
Nov 2016	5	2	2	9
Dec 2016	6	4	0	10
Jan 2017	14	8	0	22
Feb 2017	8	6	0	14
Mar 2017	22	11	0	33
Apr 2017	20	18	0	38
May 2017	20	15	2	37
Jun 2017	16	10	1	27
Jul 2017	11	6	0	17
Aug 2017	14	17	2	33
Sep 2017	11	13	0	24
Oct 2017	7	11	0	18
Nov 2017	9	10	3	22
Dec 2017	12	11	2	25
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Feb 2018	3	6	1	10
Mar 2018	19	16	2	37
Apr 2018	8	14	0	22
May 2018	11	9	1	21
Jun 2018	12	8	0	20
Jul 2018	14	9	0	23
Aug 2018	19	8	0	27
Sep 2018	18	13	3	34
Oct 2018	23	12	4	39
Nov 2018	26	15	4	45
Dec 2018	18	4	0	22
Jan 2019	20	9	4	33
Feb 2019	12	8	4	24
Mar 2019	17	10	3	30
Apr 2019	13	5	3	21
May 2019	14	10	3	27
Jun 2019	14	15	6	35
Jul 2019	21	10	41	72
Aug 2019	14	7	22	43
Sep 2019	18	9	16	43
Oct 2019	16	4	25	45
Nov 2019	24	19	49	92
Dec 2019	10	9	81	100
Jan 2020	20	11	86	117
Feb 2020	18	11	94	123
Mar 2020	10	10	59	79
Apr 2020	5	6	4	15
May 2020	4	7	4	15
Jun 2020	24	12	7	43
Jul 2020	32	22	18	72
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Mar 2021	16	8	8	32
Apr 2021	20	15	9	44
May 2021	11	15	8	34
Jun 2021	10	12	2	24
Jul 2021	6	6	1	13
Aug 2021	15	19	1	35
Sep 2021	13	14	1	28
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Feb 2022	15	8	5	28
Mar 2022	12	12	1	25
Apr 2022	12	12	3	27
May 2022	12	16	3	31
Jun 2022	14	12	2	28
Jul 2022	5	5	3	13
Aug 2022	20	3	0	23
Sep 2022	14	17	0	31
Oct 2022	15	10	2	27
Nov 2022	24	14	1	39
Dec 2022	18	11	0	29
Jan 2023	28	18	3	49
Feb 2023	18	6	2	26
Mar 2023	23	26	2	51
Apr 2023	12	18	0	30
May 2023	34	9	4	47
Jun 2023	40	5	1	46
Jul 2023	20	10	0	30
Aug 2023	38	9	3	50
Sep 2023	115	18	3	136
Oct 2023	230	12	1	243
Nov 2023	245	6	0	251
Dec 2023	27	4	1	32
Jan 2024	21	7	1	29
Feb 2024	28	12	1	41
Mar 2024	18	14	4	36
Apr 2024	29	11	3	43
May 2024	44	12	4	60
Jun 2024	35	13	1	49
Jul 2024	29	11	7	47
Aug 2024	70	6	3	79
Sep 2024	43	12	3	58
Oct 2024	39	13	3	55
Nov 2024	26	11	1	38
Dec 2024	24	4	2	30
Jan 2025	30	8	5	43
Feb 2025	37	17	1	55
Mar 2025	29	15	1	45
Apr 2025	33	16	0	49
May 2025	42	11	1	54
Jun 2025	54	23	0	77
Jul 2025	47	24	5	76
Aug 2025	42	21	1	64
Sep 2025	54	22	2	78
Oct 2025	37	20	4	61
Nov 2025	8	5	0	13

Latest update: 07 Nov 2025

Short summary

The number of large forest fires in Finland will most likely increase during the twenty-first century in response to projected climate change. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to effective fire suppression. However, our results show considerable inter-model variability, demonstrating the large uncertainty related to the rate of the projected change in forest-fire danger.