Articles | Volume 16, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2303–2323, 2016
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2303–2323, 2016

Research article 02 Nov 2016

Research article | 02 Nov 2016

Modelling wet snow avalanche runout to assess road safety at a high-altitude mine in the central Andes

Cesar Vera Valero1, Nander Wever2, Yves Bühler1, Lukas Stoffel1, Stefan Margreth1, and Perry Bartelt1 Cesar Vera Valero et al.
  • 1WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
  • 2École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lausanne, Switzerland

Abstract. Mining activities in cold regions are vulnerable to snow avalanches. Unlike operational facilities, which can be constructed in secure locations outside the reach of avalanches, access roads are often susceptible to being cut, leading to mine closures and significant financial losses. In this paper we discuss the application of avalanche runout modelling to predict the operational risk to mining roads, a long-standing problem for mines in high-altitude, snowy regions. We study the 35 km long road located in the "Cajón del rio Blanco" valley in the central Andes, which is operated by the Codelco Andina copper mine. In winter and early spring, this road is threatened by over 100 avalanche paths. If the release and snow cover conditions can be accurately specified, we find that avalanche dynamics modelling is able to represent runout, and safe traffic zones can be identified. We apply a detailed, physics-based snow cover model to calculate snow temperature, density and moisture content in three-dimensional terrain. This information is used to determine the initial and boundary conditions of the avalanche dynamics model. Of particular importance is the assessment of the current snow conditions along the avalanche tracks, which define the mass and thermal energy entrainment rates and therefore the possibility of avalanche growth and long runout distances.

Short summary
Simulating medium–small avalanches operationally on a mine service road allows avalanche hazard to be assessed on the mine transportation route. Using accurate data from the snow cover and the avalanche paths, the avalanche dynamic model developed can calculate the avalanche runout distances and snow volumes of the deposits. The model does not predict whether the avalanche is coming or not, but if it comes, the model will predict runout distances and mass of the deposits.
Final-revised paper