Articles | Volume 16, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2031-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2031-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Sep 2016
Research article |
| 02 Sep 2016
Causes and consequences of the sinkhole at El Trébol of Quito, Ecuador – implications for economic damage and risk assessment
Theofilos Toulkeridis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Fabián Rodríguez
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Nelson Arias Jiménez
Empresa Metropolitana de Alcantarillado y Agua Potable de Quito,
Quito, Ecuador
Débora Simón Baile
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Rodolfo Salazar Martínez
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Aaron Addison
Washington University St. Louis, Missouri, USA
Dora Carreón Freyre
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México, Campus Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico
Fernando Mato
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Carmen Díaz Perez
Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo, Riobamba, Ecuador
Related authors
Daniela Salcedo, Oswaldo Padilla Almeida, Byron Morales, and Theofilos Toulkeridis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates impressively, what has been possible by counting with a variety of variables and data sets in order to model landslides in a mega-vulnerable city, in this case Quito in Ecuador. Furthermore, we also compared the previously existing map of landslides in the city based on the current municipality with our new map, which allows an improved, high-resolution view of the potential and most vulnerable sites and zones.
T. Toulkeridis, C. R. Arroyo, M. Cruz D'Howitt, A. Debut, A. V. Vaca, L. Cumbal, F. Mato, and E. Aguilera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
T. Toulkeridis, D. Simón Baile, F. Rodríguez, R. Salazar Martínez, N. Arias Jiménez, and D. Carreon Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 151–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Sinkholes in any areas may result deadly or costly. A sinkhole happen to be in a highly trafficked area in Quito, Ecuador. Besides the problems and additional costs of repair, we have found out during our study, that the costs of the people who had to pass this area had to pay much more than the "simple" reconstruction costs. A critical look on historic sinkholes in the central part of the city of Quito, allowed us to identify even huger problems to come in important areas of Quito.
Tazio Strozzi, Dora Carreon-Freyre, and Urs Wegmüller
Proc. IAHS, 382, 179–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-179-2020, 2020
Dora Carreon-Freyre, Raul I. Gutierrez-Calderon, Mariano Cerca, and Carlos F. Alcantara-Duran
Proc. IAHS, 382, 571–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-571-2020, 2020
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Subsidence damage in Mexico City and risks for urban infrastructure and inhabitants have important mitigation costs. In this work, we develop a methodology for the estimation of physical vulnerability of the geological media to fracture. Factors conditioning the localization of deformation are analyzed using a deterministic approach. Physical variables were mapped, measured and integrated into a database to estimate a vulnerability index to fracturing (VIF), useful for decision making.
Mariano Cerca, Dora Carreón-Freyre, and Pietro Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 433–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, 2020
Short summary
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This work reports results of experiments made in analogue materials reproducing the occurrence and propagation of fractures associated with land subsidence driven by groundwater pumping. We compare the physical experimental model results with a numerical model that tests the development of stresses above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of an aquifer.
Daniela Salcedo, Oswaldo Padilla Almeida, Byron Morales, and Theofilos Toulkeridis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates impressively, what has been possible by counting with a variety of variables and data sets in order to model landslides in a mega-vulnerable city, in this case Quito in Ecuador. Furthermore, we also compared the previously existing map of landslides in the city based on the current municipality with our new map, which allows an improved, high-resolution view of the potential and most vulnerable sites and zones.
T. Toulkeridis, C. R. Arroyo, M. Cruz D'Howitt, A. Debut, A. V. Vaca, L. Cumbal, F. Mato, and E. Aguilera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
A. Franceschini, P. Teatini, C. Janna, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, S. Ye, and D. Carreón-Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 63–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, 2015
Short summary
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The stress variation induced by overdraft of aquifers in sedimentary basins may cause ground rupture in the form of activation of pre-existing faults or earth fissure generation. The process is severely threatening many areas in China and Mexico. Ruptures yield discontinuity in the displacement and stress fields that classic finite element (FE) models cannot address. We proved how Lagrangian approach provides more stable solutions than Penalty approach.
M. Cerca, L. Rocha, D. Carreón-Freyre, and J. Aranda
Proc. IAHS, 372, 285–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-285-2015, 2015
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We present a series of physical experiments that examine with detail the evolution of subsidence in a volcanic maar crater, located in central Mexico. The crater is thought to be connected to the adjacent aquifer, which has been extensively exploited during the last 35 years. Subsidence in the sediments filling the crater show deformation manifested as ring faults and fractures. The results may be relevant to understand the evolution of subsidence in similar volcanic settings elsewhere.
D. Carreón-Freyre, M. González-Hernández, D. Martinez-Alfaro, S. Solís-Valdéz, M. Cerca, B. Millán-Malo, R. Gutiérrez-Calderón, and F. Centeno-Salas
Proc. IAHS, 372, 273–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
An analysis of the deformation conditions of lacustrine materials deposited in the volcanic valley of the Mexico City is presented. Currently geotechnical studies assume that compressibility of granular materials decreases in depth due to the lithostatic load. Our results show that Cc for fine grain materials (lacustrine) can be vertically variable, particularly when soils and sediments are the product of different volcanic materials. These variations need to be considered when modelling LS.
F. A. Centeno-Salas, D. Carreón-Freyre, W. A. Flores-García, and R. I. Gutiérrez-Calderón
Proc. IAHS, 372, 267–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-267-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-267-2015, 2015
Short summary
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In the eastern sector of Mexico City the sub soil consists of high contrasting sequences (lacustrine and volcanic inter bedded deposits) that favor the development of erratic fracturing in the surface. The results of applying the GPR, MASW and SR methods simultaneously show the persistence of the clayey lacustrine material with variable thickness encased by volcanic materials. The contrasting mechanical properties between the two types of material may cause slippage over lithological contacts.
M. González-Hernández, D. Carreón-Freyre, R. Gutierrez-Calderon, M. Cerca, and W. Flores-Garcia
Proc. IAHS, 372, 261–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-261-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-261-2015, 2015
T. Toulkeridis, D. Simón Baile, F. Rodríguez, R. Salazar Martínez, N. Arias Jiménez, and D. Carreon Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 151–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, 2015
Short summary
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Sinkholes in any areas may result deadly or costly. A sinkhole happen to be in a highly trafficked area in Quito, Ecuador. Besides the problems and additional costs of repair, we have found out during our study, that the costs of the people who had to pass this area had to pay much more than the "simple" reconstruction costs. A critical look on historic sinkholes in the central part of the city of Quito, allowed us to identify even huger problems to come in important areas of Quito.
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This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
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Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
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Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
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Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
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Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
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Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
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It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
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Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
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We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
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Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
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Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, and Kai Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-195, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The short-medium term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analyzed by simulation in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions. And the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performed better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabrício Alonso Richmond Navarro, Roberto Fray Silva, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-498, 2022
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Lately we have been exposed to news demonstrating the vulnerability of our society to a variety of natural disasters and they usually are not isolated. To improve the financial stability, we need to provide insurance contracts that allow coverage for multiple sources of threats, such as droughts, extreme temperatures and floods. We conducted a review of the literature for answering very simple questions regarding weather index insurance design and how to cope with multiple hazard risks.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
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To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
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Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
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This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
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The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Hui-ge Xing, Ting Que, Yu-xin Wu, Shi-yu Hu, Hai-bo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-152, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Survey data obtained from 260 respondents in Jinchuan County, Sichuan Province, China, are analyzed using structural equation modeling and combined with multivariate hierarchical regression to test the explanatory power of the model. The results indicate that attitude, subjective normative, perceived behavioral control, and participatory cognition are significant predictors of public intention to participate. Disaster experience is negatively associated with public intention to participate.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
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The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
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The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
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Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-91, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazard. To minimize loss, proper planning and execution in the right direction is necessary. Data collection is base for any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand, pictorial and identify high-risk components of any building (structural & non-structural) and campus from multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilize the budget in a prioritized way. This study is gone through SWOT of the existing risk assessment form.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, 2022
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A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, 2022
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Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
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Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, 2022
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This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022
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The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
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We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
Mathias Raschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-245-2022, 2022
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We develop the combined return period to stochastically measure hazard and catastrophe events. This is used to estimate a risk curve by stochastic scaling of historical events and averaging corresponding risk parameters in combination with a vulnerability model. We apply the method to extratropical cyclones over Germany and estimate the risk for insured losses. The results are strongly influenced by assumptions about spatial dependence.
Luis Moya, Fernando Garcia, Carlos Gonzales, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Zavala, Miguel Estrada, Fumio Yamazaki, Shunichi Koshimura, Erick Mas, and Bruno Adriano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 65–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-65-2022, 2022
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Informal occupation of unused lands for settlements is a critical issue in Peru. In most cases, such areas are unsafe against natural hazards. We performed a time-series analysis of Sentinel-1 images at recent informal settlements in Lima. The result suggests that a low-cost and sustainable monitoring system of informal settlements can be implemented.
Cited articles
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Aisong, D. and Jianhua, J.: Land subsidence, sinkhole collapse and earth fissure occurrence and control in China, Hydrol. Sci. J., 39, 245–256, 1994.
Arias Jiménez, N. E.: Hundimiento El Trebol “Respuesta a la emergencia”, Unpublished Thesis, Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales, Quito, Ecuador, 52 pp., 2008.
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Beck, B. F.: Soil piping and sinkhole failures, in: Enyclopedia of caves, edited by: White, W. B., Elsevier, New York, 523–528, 2004.
Brinkmann, R., Parise, M., and Dye, D.: Sinkhole distribution in a rapidly developing urban environment: Hillsborough County, Tampa Bay area, Florida, Eng. Geol., 99, 169–184, 2008.
Bruno, E., Calcaterra, D., and Parise, M.: Development and morphometry of sinkholes in coastal plains of Apulia, southern Italy, Preliminary sinkhole susceptibility assessment, Eng. Geol., 99, 198–209, 2008.
Clapperton, C. M. and Vera, R.: The Quaternary glacial sequence in Ecuador: a reinterpretation of the work of Walter Sauer, J. Quaternary Sci., 1, 45–56, 1986.
Coltorti, M. and Ollier, C. D.: Geomorphic and tectonic evolution of the Ecuadorian Andes, Geomorphology, 32, 1–19, 2000.
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El Universo: Se buscan vías alternas por hundimiento en sector El Trebol de Quito, available at: http://www.eluniverso.com/2008/04/01/0001/12/555F7445DA114F59A5A7C7D8C0564C44.html, last access: 1 April 2008.
EMAAP-Q: Estudio Hidrogeológico del acuífero del Valle de los Chillos”, Quito, Ecuador, 112 pp., 2006.
Gutiérrez, F., Galve, J. P., Guerrero, J., Lucha, P., Cendrero, A., Remondo, J., Bonachea, J., Gutiérrez, M., and Sánchez, J. A.: The origin, typology, spatial distribution and detrimental effects of the sinkholes developed in the alluvial evaporite karst of the Ebro River valley downstream of Zaragoza city (NE Spain), Earth Surf. Proc. Landf., 32, 912–928, 2007.
Gutiérrez, F., Cooper, A. H., and Johnson, K. S.: Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas, Environ. Geol., 53, 1007–1022, 2008.
Gutiérrez, F., Galve, J. P., Lucha, P., Bonachea, J., Jordá, L., and Jordá, R.: Investigation of a large collapse sinkhole affecting a multi-storey building by means of geophysics and the trenching technique (Zaragoza city, NE Spain), Environ. Geol., 58, 1107–1122, 2009.
Gutiérrez-Santolalla, F., Gutiérrez-Elorza, M., Marín, C., Desir, G., and Maldonado, C.: Spatial distribution, morphometry and activity of La Puebla de Alfindén sinkhole field in the Ebro river valley (NE Spain): applied aspects for hazard zonation, Environ. Geol., 48, 360–369, 2005.
Hall, M. and Mothes, P.: El origen y edad de la Cangahua superior, valle de Tumbaco, Ecuador, in: Suelos volcánicos endurecidos, edited by: Zebrowski, C., Quantin, P., and Trujillo, G., Mem III Symp Intern ORSTOM, Quito, 19–28, 1997.
Hermosilla, R. G.: The Guatemala City sinkhole collapses, Carbonate. Evaporite., 27, 103–107, 2012.
INAHMI (National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology): Meteorological yearbook, Nr. 48, Quito, Ecuador, 123 pp., 2008.
INAHMI (National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology): Meteorological yearbook, Nr. 50, Quito, Ecuador, 139 pp., 2010.
Kaufmann, G. and Romanov, D.: Geophysical investigation of a sinkhole in the northern Harz foreland (North Germany), Environ. Geol., 58, 401–405, 2009.
Krawczyk, C. M., Polom, U., Trabs, S., and Dahm, T.: Sinkholes in the city of Hamburg – New urban shear-wave reflection seismic system enables high-resolution imaging of subrosion structures, J. Appl. Geophys., 78, 133–143, 2012.
La Hora: El Trebol se cayó en Quito, available at: http://www.lahora.com.ec/index.php/noticias/show/703827/-1/El_Tr%C3%A9bol_se_cay%C3%B3_en_Quito.html#.VT4-MtJ_NHw, last access: 6 April 2008.
Lei, M. T., Li, Y., Jiang, X. Z., Gan, F. P., and Meug, Y.: Preliminary study on the technology and method of sinkhole collapse monitoring and prediction: As an example of sinkhole collapse monitoring station in Zhemu Village, Guilin City, The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 15, 142–147, 2004.
López, J. L.: Evaluación del consumo de combustible de vehículos livianos en el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, Tesis previa a la obtención del Grado de Magister (MSc) en Sistemas Automotrices, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, 170 pp., 2013.
Margiotta, S., Negri, S., Parise, M., and Valloni, R.: Mapping the susceptibility to sinkholes in coastal areas, based on stratigraphy, geomorphology and geophysics, Nat. Hazards, 62, 657–676, 2012.
MDMQ (Municipio del Distrito Metropolitano de Quito): Balance de los Estudios Urbanos (1985–2005) de la Coperación IRDMunicpio de Quito, in: Movilidad, elementos esenciales y riesgos en el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito, edited by: Demoraes, F., Co-edición MDMQ-IFEA-IRD, Quito, 218 pp., 2005
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Orndorff, R. C. and Lagueux, K. M.: Using geographic information systems (GIS) to determine geologic controls on the distribution of sinkholes in the Ozarks of south-central Missouri, in: Abstracts with Programs-Geological Society of America, 32, 3, p. 38, 2000.
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Short summary
Any sinkhole occurring in a highly active city provokes chaos and disturbance. In the city of Quito a big sinkhole appeared in a critical road interchange called El Trébol. For a few months the city came close to collapse with its traffic in this zone and a state of emergency was declared. During the recovery and reconstruction of the site, the cause was able to be determined as the combined negligence of monitoring of older subterranean infrastructure as well as high precipitation.
Any sinkhole occurring in a highly active city provokes chaos and disturbance. In the city of...
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