Articles | Volume 16, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2031-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2031-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Sep 2016
Research article |
| 02 Sep 2016
Causes and consequences of the sinkhole at El Trébol of Quito, Ecuador – implications for economic damage and risk assessment
Theofilos Toulkeridis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Fabián Rodríguez
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Nelson Arias Jiménez
Empresa Metropolitana de Alcantarillado y Agua Potable de Quito,
Quito, Ecuador
Débora Simón Baile
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Rodolfo Salazar Martínez
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Aaron Addison
Washington University St. Louis, Missouri, USA
Dora Carreón Freyre
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México, Campus Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico
Fernando Mato
Centro Geoespacial, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,
Sangolquí, Ecuador
Carmen Díaz Perez
Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo, Riobamba, Ecuador
Related authors
Daniela Salcedo, Oswaldo Padilla Almeida, Byron Morales, and Theofilos Toulkeridis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
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This research demonstrates impressively, what has been possible by counting with a variety of variables and data sets in order to model landslides in a mega-vulnerable city, in this case Quito in Ecuador. Furthermore, we also compared the previously existing map of landslides in the city based on the current municipality with our new map, which allows an improved, high-resolution view of the potential and most vulnerable sites and zones.
T. Toulkeridis, C. R. Arroyo, M. Cruz D'Howitt, A. Debut, A. V. Vaca, L. Cumbal, F. Mato, and E. Aguilera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
T. Toulkeridis, D. Simón Baile, F. Rodríguez, R. Salazar Martínez, N. Arias Jiménez, and D. Carreon Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 151–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Sinkholes in any areas may result deadly or costly. A sinkhole happen to be in a highly trafficked area in Quito, Ecuador. Besides the problems and additional costs of repair, we have found out during our study, that the costs of the people who had to pass this area had to pay much more than the "simple" reconstruction costs. A critical look on historic sinkholes in the central part of the city of Quito, allowed us to identify even huger problems to come in important areas of Quito.
Fabian Rodriguez-Espinosa, Cristina Cabrera-Paladines, Juan Calderón-Tupiza, and Theofilos Toulkeridis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-298, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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The study determines the physical and economic impact on Otavalo canton in Ecuador out of the potential eruption of the closest volcanoes. With geographic information and geospatial tools, Otavalo’s maps were prepared of ash falls and pyroclastic flows to define its impact. The economic losses are substantial between 235 and 300 million dollars of a potential eruption of the Cuicocha and Imbabura volcanoes. Then, a proposal of preventive measures base was developed to undermine volcanoes impact.
Tazio Strozzi, Dora Carreon-Freyre, and Urs Wegmüller
Proc. IAHS, 382, 179–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-179-2020, 2020
Dora Carreon-Freyre, Raul I. Gutierrez-Calderon, Mariano Cerca, and Carlos F. Alcantara-Duran
Proc. IAHS, 382, 571–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-571-2020, 2020
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Subsidence damage in Mexico City and risks for urban infrastructure and inhabitants have important mitigation costs. In this work, we develop a methodology for the estimation of physical vulnerability of the geological media to fracture. Factors conditioning the localization of deformation are analyzed using a deterministic approach. Physical variables were mapped, measured and integrated into a database to estimate a vulnerability index to fracturing (VIF), useful for decision making.
Mariano Cerca, Dora Carreón-Freyre, and Pietro Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 433–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, 2020
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This work reports results of experiments made in analogue materials reproducing the occurrence and propagation of fractures associated with land subsidence driven by groundwater pumping. We compare the physical experimental model results with a numerical model that tests the development of stresses above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of an aquifer.
Daniela Salcedo, Oswaldo Padilla Almeida, Byron Morales, and Theofilos Toulkeridis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This research demonstrates impressively, what has been possible by counting with a variety of variables and data sets in order to model landslides in a mega-vulnerable city, in this case Quito in Ecuador. Furthermore, we also compared the previously existing map of landslides in the city based on the current municipality with our new map, which allows an improved, high-resolution view of the potential and most vulnerable sites and zones.
T. Toulkeridis, C. R. Arroyo, M. Cruz D'Howitt, A. Debut, A. V. Vaca, L. Cumbal, F. Mato, and E. Aguilera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
A. Franceschini, P. Teatini, C. Janna, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, S. Ye, and D. Carreón-Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 63–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, 2015
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The stress variation induced by overdraft of aquifers in sedimentary basins may cause ground rupture in the form of activation of pre-existing faults or earth fissure generation. The process is severely threatening many areas in China and Mexico. Ruptures yield discontinuity in the displacement and stress fields that classic finite element (FE) models cannot address. We proved how Lagrangian approach provides more stable solutions than Penalty approach.
M. Cerca, L. Rocha, D. Carreón-Freyre, and J. Aranda
Proc. IAHS, 372, 285–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-285-2015, 2015
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We present a series of physical experiments that examine with detail the evolution of subsidence in a volcanic maar crater, located in central Mexico. The crater is thought to be connected to the adjacent aquifer, which has been extensively exploited during the last 35 years. Subsidence in the sediments filling the crater show deformation manifested as ring faults and fractures. The results may be relevant to understand the evolution of subsidence in similar volcanic settings elsewhere.
D. Carreón-Freyre, M. González-Hernández, D. Martinez-Alfaro, S. Solís-Valdéz, M. Cerca, B. Millán-Malo, R. Gutiérrez-Calderón, and F. Centeno-Salas
Proc. IAHS, 372, 273–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-273-2015, 2015
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An analysis of the deformation conditions of lacustrine materials deposited in the volcanic valley of the Mexico City is presented. Currently geotechnical studies assume that compressibility of granular materials decreases in depth due to the lithostatic load. Our results show that Cc for fine grain materials (lacustrine) can be vertically variable, particularly when soils and sediments are the product of different volcanic materials. These variations need to be considered when modelling LS.
F. A. Centeno-Salas, D. Carreón-Freyre, W. A. Flores-García, and R. I. Gutiérrez-Calderón
Proc. IAHS, 372, 267–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-267-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-267-2015, 2015
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In the eastern sector of Mexico City the sub soil consists of high contrasting sequences (lacustrine and volcanic inter bedded deposits) that favor the development of erratic fracturing in the surface. The results of applying the GPR, MASW and SR methods simultaneously show the persistence of the clayey lacustrine material with variable thickness encased by volcanic materials. The contrasting mechanical properties between the two types of material may cause slippage over lithological contacts.
M. González-Hernández, D. Carreón-Freyre, R. Gutierrez-Calderon, M. Cerca, and W. Flores-Garcia
Proc. IAHS, 372, 261–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-261-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-261-2015, 2015
T. Toulkeridis, D. Simón Baile, F. Rodríguez, R. Salazar Martínez, N. Arias Jiménez, and D. Carreon Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 151–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-151-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Sinkholes in any areas may result deadly or costly. A sinkhole happen to be in a highly trafficked area in Quito, Ecuador. Besides the problems and additional costs of repair, we have found out during our study, that the costs of the people who had to pass this area had to pay much more than the "simple" reconstruction costs. A critical look on historic sinkholes in the central part of the city of Quito, allowed us to identify even huger problems to come in important areas of Quito.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
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To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
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Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
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The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, 2024
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Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to contrast subsidence and its damages. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques, to which site-specific assessment should always follow.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
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This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
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Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
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Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
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Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
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About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
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In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
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With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
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For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
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Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
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This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, 2024
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Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners’ needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, 2024
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In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on – therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g. to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
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Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
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The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
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This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
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An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
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The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
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We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
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A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
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The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
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We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
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Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
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Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
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Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
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Short summary
Any sinkhole occurring in a highly active city provokes chaos and disturbance. In the city of Quito a big sinkhole appeared in a critical road interchange called El Trébol. For a few months the city came close to collapse with its traffic in this zone and a state of emergency was declared. During the recovery and reconstruction of the site, the cause was able to be determined as the combined negligence of monitoring of older subterranean infrastructure as well as high precipitation.
Any sinkhole occurring in a highly active city provokes chaos and disturbance. In the city of...
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