Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-149-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-149-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jan 2016
Research article |
| 19 Jan 2016
Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards
M. Sättele
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf,
Switzerland
M. Bründl
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf,
Switzerland
D. Straub
Technische Universität München, Engineering Risk Analysis Group,
Munich, Germany
Viewed
Total article views: 5,942 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 30 Jul 2015)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,882 | 2,881 | 179 | 5,942 | 156 | 189 |
- HTML: 2,882
- PDF: 2,881
- XML: 179
- Total: 5,942
- BibTeX: 156
- EndNote: 189
Total article views: 5,309 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Jan 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,709 | 2,439 | 161 | 5,309 | 144 | 175 |
- HTML: 2,709
- PDF: 2,439
- XML: 161
- Total: 5,309
- BibTeX: 144
- EndNote: 175
Total article views: 633 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 30 Jul 2015)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 442 | 18 | 633 | 12 | 14 |
- HTML: 173
- PDF: 442
- XML: 18
- Total: 633
- BibTeX: 12
- EndNote: 14
Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Quantifying the effect of forests on frequency and intensity of rockfalls C. Moos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017
- Integrating the mitigating effect of forests into quantitative rockfall risk analysis – Two case studies in Switzerland C. Moos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.036
- A Participatory Process to Develop a Landslide Warning System: Paradoxes of Responsibility Sharing in a Case Study in Upper Austria P. Preuner et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources6040054
- Earthquake early warning: Recent advances and perspectives G. Cremen & C. Galasso https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103184
- Systèmes d’alerte précoce pour les aléas naturels et environnementaux : virage ou mirage technologique ? D. Didier et al. https://doi.org/10.7202/1042922ar
- Current status and challenges in operating flood early warning systems at the local level in Japan A. Cao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104802
- Application of time-of-day and day-of-week-based hazard in dam break assessments R. Coombs https://doi.org/10.1680/jdare.20.00008
- LandAware: a new international network on Landslide Early Warning Systems M. Calvello et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01548-7
- Impact-based flash-flood forecasting system: Sensitivity to high resolution numerical weather prediction systems and soil moisture F. Silvestro et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.055
- Assessing sustained high-heat multi-hazard events through earth observation and impact chain analysis in southeast UK E. Mills et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.115423
- Performance Evaluation of a Nowcasting Modelling Chain Operatively Employed in Very Small Catchments in the Mediterranean Environment for Civil Protection Purposes M. Raffellini et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060783
- Development of a Bayesian network-based early warning system for storm-driven coastal erosion J. Garzon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104460
- Dynamic evolution of water conducting fracture zones and roof water hazard early warning based on 3d spatial clustering M. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-19305-y
- Early alert and community involvement: approach for disaster risk reduction in Rwanda L. Nahayo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2702-5
- Monitoring strategies for local landslide early warning systems G. Pecoraro et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1068-z
- Framework for assessing the performance of flood adaptation innovations using a risk‐based approach K. Lendering et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12485
- Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for heavy air pollution based on public responses F. Wang & S. Fei https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/657/1/012065
- A Big Data-Driven Approach for Early Warning of Enterprise Emissions Alignment with Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Case Study of Guangxi Province C. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17112508
- Spatial performance of location-based alerts in France E. Bopp & J. Douvinet https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101909
- How to evaluate England's weather-health alerting system: scoping results and recommendations A. Madera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106176
- Definition and performance of a threshold-based regional early warning model for rainfall-induced landslides L. Piciullo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0750-2
- Are sirens effective tools to alert the population in France? J. Douvinet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2899-2021
- A framework for addressing the interconnectedness of early warning to action and finance to strengthen multiscale institutional responses to climate shocks and disasters E. Attoh & G. Amarnath https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100689
- Pakistan: Early Warning by Women for Conflict Prevention in the Erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Merged Districts) N. NASEER et al. https://doi.org/10.24193/csq.54.4
- Preface: Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall thresholds, warning models, performance evaluation and risk perception S. Segoni et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3179-2018
- A review of landslide acceptable risk and tolerable risk K. Sim et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-022-00205-6
- Towards multimodal geospatial reasoning: a foundation model approach for disaster detection from social media, news, and weather data D. Hanny et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08191-w
- The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective R. de Elía https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-022-09863-1
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Quantifying the effect of forests on frequency and intensity of rockfalls C. Moos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017
- Integrating the mitigating effect of forests into quantitative rockfall risk analysis – Two case studies in Switzerland C. Moos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.036
- A Participatory Process to Develop a Landslide Warning System: Paradoxes of Responsibility Sharing in a Case Study in Upper Austria P. Preuner et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources6040054
- Earthquake early warning: Recent advances and perspectives G. Cremen & C. Galasso https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103184
- Systèmes d’alerte précoce pour les aléas naturels et environnementaux : virage ou mirage technologique ? D. Didier et al. https://doi.org/10.7202/1042922ar
- Current status and challenges in operating flood early warning systems at the local level in Japan A. Cao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104802
- Application of time-of-day and day-of-week-based hazard in dam break assessments R. Coombs https://doi.org/10.1680/jdare.20.00008
- LandAware: a new international network on Landslide Early Warning Systems M. Calvello et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01548-7
- Impact-based flash-flood forecasting system: Sensitivity to high resolution numerical weather prediction systems and soil moisture F. Silvestro et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.055
- Assessing sustained high-heat multi-hazard events through earth observation and impact chain analysis in southeast UK E. Mills et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.115423
- Performance Evaluation of a Nowcasting Modelling Chain Operatively Employed in Very Small Catchments in the Mediterranean Environment for Civil Protection Purposes M. Raffellini et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060783
- Development of a Bayesian network-based early warning system for storm-driven coastal erosion J. Garzon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104460
- Dynamic evolution of water conducting fracture zones and roof water hazard early warning based on 3d spatial clustering M. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-19305-y
- Early alert and community involvement: approach for disaster risk reduction in Rwanda L. Nahayo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2702-5
- Monitoring strategies for local landslide early warning systems G. Pecoraro et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1068-z
- Framework for assessing the performance of flood adaptation innovations using a risk‐based approach K. Lendering et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12485
- Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for heavy air pollution based on public responses F. Wang & S. Fei https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/657/1/012065
- A Big Data-Driven Approach for Early Warning of Enterprise Emissions Alignment with Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Case Study of Guangxi Province C. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17112508
- Spatial performance of location-based alerts in France E. Bopp & J. Douvinet https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101909
- How to evaluate England's weather-health alerting system: scoping results and recommendations A. Madera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106176
- Definition and performance of a threshold-based regional early warning model for rainfall-induced landslides L. Piciullo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0750-2
- Are sirens effective tools to alert the population in France? J. Douvinet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2899-2021
- A framework for addressing the interconnectedness of early warning to action and finance to strengthen multiscale institutional responses to climate shocks and disasters E. Attoh & G. Amarnath https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100689
- Pakistan: Early Warning by Women for Conflict Prevention in the Erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Merged Districts) N. NASEER et al. https://doi.org/10.24193/csq.54.4
- Preface: Landslide early warning systems: monitoring systems, rainfall thresholds, warning models, performance evaluation and risk perception S. Segoni et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3179-2018
- A review of landslide acceptable risk and tolerable risk K. Sim et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-022-00205-6
- Towards multimodal geospatial reasoning: a foundation model approach for disaster detection from social media, news, and weather data D. Hanny et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08191-w
- The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective R. de Elía https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-022-09863-1
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
Short summary
We suggest a generic classification of early warning systems for natural hazards, which distinguishes alarm, warning, and forecasting systems. On the basis of this classification, we developed a three-step framework for evaluating the effectiveness of such systems and illustrate its applicability using case studies. Our results will support practitioners in comparing the effectiveness of early warning systems with those of structural mitigation measures.
We suggest a generic classification of early warning systems for natural hazards, which...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint