Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-149-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-149-2016
Research article
 | 
19 Jan 2016
Research article |  | 19 Jan 2016

Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

M. Sättele, M. Bründl, and D. Straub

Abstract. Early warning systems (EWSs) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWSs is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWSs and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWSs is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWSs. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

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Short summary
We suggest a generic classification of early warning systems for natural hazards, which distinguishes alarm, warning, and forecasting systems. On the basis of this classification, we developed a three-step framework for evaluating the effectiveness of such systems and illustrate its applicability using case studies. Our results will support practitioners in comparing the effectiveness of early warning systems with those of structural mitigation measures.
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