Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 487–504, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-487-2015
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 487–504, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-487-2015
Research article
10 Mar 2015
Research article | 10 Mar 2015

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

N. Wanders and H. A. J. Van Lanen

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Cited articles

Alderlieste, M. A. A., Van Lanen, H. A. J., and Wanders, N.: Future low flows and hydrological drought: how certain are these for Europe, in: Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions, edited by: Daniell, T., Van Lanen, H., Demuth, S., Laaha, G., Servat, E., Mahe, G., Boyer, J.-F., Paturel, J.-E., Dezetter, A., and Ruelland, D., no. 363 in IAHS Publications, 60–65, 2014.
Allen, R., Pereira, L., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56 – Crop Evapotranspiration, Food and Agriculture Organization, 2006.
Andreadis, K. M., Clark, E. A., Wood, A. W., Hamlet, A. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Twentieth-Century Drought in the Conterminous United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 985–1001, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM450.1, 2005.
Arnell, N. W.: Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 619–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-7-619-2003, 2003.
Chen, F., Crow, W. T., Starks, P. J., and Moriasi, D. N.: Improving hydrologic predictions of a catchment model via assimilation of surface soil moisture, Adv. Water Resour., 34, 526–536, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.01.011, 2011.
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In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario and compared to the WATCH Forcing data set. Hydrological drought characteristics (duration and severity) were calculated on a global scale. It was found that both drought duration and severity will increase in multiple regions, which will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which urges water resources managers to timely design pro-active measures.
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