Fuzzy approach to analysis of flood risk based on variable fuzzy sets and improved information diffusion methods

Abstract. The predictive analysis of natural disasters and their consequences is challenging because of uncertainties and incomplete data. The present article studies the use of variable fuzzy sets (VFS) and improved information diffusion method (IIDM) to construct a composite method. The proposed method aims to integrate multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for catastrophic risk assessment. The fuzzy methodology is proposed in the area of flood disaster risk assessment to improve probability estimation. The purpose of the current study is to establish a fuzzy model to evaluate flood risk with incomplete data sets. The results of the example indicate that the methodology is effective and practical; thus, it has the potential to forecast the flood risk in flood risk management.