Articles | Volume 12, issue 5
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1393–1405, 2012

Special issue: 12th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1393–1405, 2012

Research article 09 May 2012

Research article | 09 May 2012

Verification of precipitation forecasts of MM5 model over Epirus, NW Greece, for various convective parameterization schemes

O. A. Sindosi1, A. Bartzokas1, V. Kotroni2, and K. Lagouvardos2 O. A. Sindosi et al.
  • 1Laboratory of Meteorology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece
  • 2Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Department, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Abstract. The mesoscale meteorological model MM5 is applied to 22 selected days with intense precipitation in the region of Epirus, NW Greece. At first, it was investigated whether and to what extend an increased horizontal resolution (from 8 to 2 km) improves the quantitative precipitation forecasts. The model skill was examined for the 12-h accumulated precipitation recorded at 14 meteorological stations located in Epirus and by using categorical and descriptive statistics. Then, the precipitation forecast skill for the 2 km grid was studied: (a) without and (b) with the activation of a convective parameterization scheme. From the above study, the necessity of the use of a scheme at the 2 km grid is assessed. Furthermore, three different convective parameterization schemes are compared: (a) Betts-Miller, (b) Grell and (c) Kain-Fritsch-2 in order to reveal the scheme, resulting in the best precipitation forecast skill in Epirus. Kain-Fritsch-2 and Grell give better results with the latter being the best for the high precipitation events.