Assessment of Arias Intensity of historical earthquakes using modified Mercalli intensities and artificial neural networks

Abstract. This paper presents the development of a non-parametric forecast model based on artificial neural networks for the direct assessment of Arias Intensity corresponding to a historic earthquake using seismic intensity data. The neural models allow complex and nonlinear behaviour to be tracked. Application of this methodology on earthquakes with known instrumental data from Greece, showed that the artificial neural network forecast model have excellent data synthesis capability.