the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
16 Mar 2021
16 Mar 2021
A new approach to assess the impact of extreme temperature conditions on social vulnerability
- 1Hungarian Department of Geography, Research Center for Sustainable Development, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, 400006, Romania
- 2Department of Physical and Technical Geography, Research Center for Sustainable Development, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, 400006, Romania
- 3Department of Regional Geography and Territorial Planning, Research Center for Regional Geography, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, 400006, Romania
- 1Hungarian Department of Geography, Research Center for Sustainable Development, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, 400006, Romania
- 2Department of Physical and Technical Geography, Research Center for Sustainable Development, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, 400006, Romania
- 3Department of Regional Geography and Territorial Planning, Research Center for Regional Geography, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, 400006, Romania
Abstract. The objective of this research is to develop a set of vulnerability indicators and to analyze the effect of climate factors on social vulnerability. While the main aim of the study is to improve the existing methodology by quantifying the effects of climate change on social vulnerability, it also represents a novel scientific contribution in the field, as it delimits for the first time in the Romanian literature the most vulnerable areas from this point of view. This study aims to facilitate the decision-making processes and planning efforts targeting the increase of resilience and adaptive capacity of local communities. By applying the principal component analysis, we have selected 45 variables and have constructed four aggregated indexes. The Climate-Related Social Vulnerability index (CleSoVI) has pointed out that the largest impact on the current vulnerability of settlements in the test region (Cluj County) can be attributed to the lack of adaptive capacity and increased poverty, the most vulnerable areas being represented by the eastern and north-western parts of the county. From a socio-economic point of view, local authorities' efforts should concentrate on reducing the vulnerability of these regions and preparing them to cope with- and adapt to the impact of climate change.
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Ibolya Török et al.
Status: open (until 27 Apr 2021)
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RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-45', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Mar 2021
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Dear Authors, I assessed your work submitted to the NHESS journal and I can state that while the article has scientific and presentation quality to be published in a scientific journal, it does not have the scientific significance required by this journal review criteria. Even you in the paper state: "Based on reviews of the related literature, as a rule, we have observed that in most cases the majority 130 of indicators have been selected subjectively and adapted to the main characteristics of the analyzed region. This is a common approach, which could be noticed in most of the vulnerability analyses conducted worldwide.". This text, besides the fact that does not reference literature reviews, is a statement showing that nothing is new and that you just subjectively adopted a common approach to a certain study area. This violates the question: Does the manuscript represent a substantial contribution to the understanding of natural hazards and their consequences (new concepts, ideas, methods, or data)?
Further, if we investigate the text, you also state that the objective of the paper is: "to develop a scientifically based set of vulnerability indicators and calculate the impact of climate factors on people’s vulnerability in Cluj County.". Again the scientific requirements of the journal are not targeted: "Does the paper address relevant scientific and/or technical questions within the scope of NHESS?
Does the paper present new data and/or novel concepts, ideas, tools, methods or results?" Your study is mainly a regional one. This is accentuated by the fact that the presented methodology for general vulnerability assessment is actually the same used by the first author in 2018 in regard to flood hazard, again in a regional approach. The PCA was previously used in vulnerability assessment.In the conclusion, you state that "This study represents a first attempt for understanding the spatial relationship between social vulnerability and climate change, offering the possibility to be tested in other regions as well" but actually this might be for Cluj County, because in the literature at least this (10.1007/s10113-017-1105-9) should point you in the right direction, that all the approaches are spatial in nature, so a simple mapping does not make it especially spatial. For an example of spatial approach see 10.1073/pnas.0710375105.
The article is missing a Discussion part where the novelty and the shortcomings of the "new" method.
In my view, the article could be published in a journal that accepts regional approaches, but the "new" attribute should be avoided.
Best regards,
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RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-45', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Apr 2021
reply
The manuscript can be impactful in the scientific community because of the type of hazard selected. However, it lacks novelty regarding the methodology (using a standard set of variables that have a stretched connection with extreme temperatures) and potential outcomes. It considers a very small study area for which any justification has been given. Here some general comments:
1) Although the introduction is perfectly organized and well document the progress and directions of social vulnerability, it fails to include key concepts on (socio) vulnerability and extremes temperatures. Some crucial papers in this context are (but not limited to):
- Uejio, Christopher K., et al. "Intra-urban societal vulnerability to extreme heat: the role of heat exposure and the built environment, socioeconomics, and neighbourhood stability." Health and Place, 17.2 (2011): 498-507.
- Conlon, Kathryn C., et al. "Mapping human vulnerability to extreme heat: a critical assessment of heat vulnerability indices created using principal components analysis" Environmental Health perspectives 128.9 (2020): 097001.
- Hansen, Alana, et al. "Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?." Global health action 6.1 (2013): 21364.
2) The study area is described very vaguely, and any mention is given to the vulnerability of extreme temperatures. Is the area frequently exposed to extreme temperatures? What are the consequences detected in the last decades (considering the economy, the health, etc.)? There is a need for a substantial justification behind the selection of such a small scale of analysis. The methodology is not at all new; thus, a small spatial scale is not enough. Why don't you run the analysis considering Romania as a whole?
3) Another important point is the choice of the variables. It seems that a standard set of variables has been included, and some of them have not direct relation with extreme temperatures vulnerability. By exploring the literature, variables, in this case, are concrete and need to be justified and contextualized. Otherwise, "the peculiar socio-cultural characteristics of the study area" are not met in the analysis.
4) In the "methodology" chapter, many references are missing regarding the database consulted. I expect to find the link in the reference list. Also, which year or years have been considered for data collection? It is not mentioned anywhere.
5) I don't understand the connection with precipitation and the inclusion of even precipitation graphs within the manuscript. I recommend deleting those unless adequately justified.
6) Any information is mentioned regarding the indices. Can you introduce the paragraph with a general statement by giving the researchers' proper credits for who first developed them? I also feel some confusion when explaining the database used (e.g. (i) when creating the DEVI, the authors amended one database with another one; or (ii) when included in the SEVI index another index -the Local Human Development Index). How is it possible to have an index into another index? This also reveals another critical flaw in the methodology. Do the authors perform a multicollinearity analysis? I guess that some of the variables may be explained by some others, double-counting them into the equation. I am quite sure that within the 13 weather-related variables, some of them present some collinearity. Likewise income and social welfare, or the Local development index with some others.
7) Chapter 3 and 4 are divided into many subchapters that sometimes account for just a single paragraph. This makes them very difficult to read.
8) "4.4 Analysis of BEVI": the authors state: "On the one hand, limited access to basic services like access to piped water and sewage network, the share of wooden houses make people more vulnerable, especially those from rural areas and highly isolated mountainous regions (southwestern and northeastern parts of the county)". How can the lack of basic sanitation influence the vulnerability of people to extreme temperatures? And more, are urban agglomerates more fragile to extremes temperatures because of lesser evapotranspiration rather than rural and mountainous areas? These very vague sentences make me feel that the variables' choice has been made without a proper understanding of the hazard selected. Running a social vulnerability analysis is not just a PCA; it is how the chosen variables interact in the current socio-cultural and economic environment.
9) What is the demographic dependency ratio and rate of natural increase? What is the social welfare ratio?
10) The discussion is somehow discussing the whole of Romania. Thus I would change the study area and make it wider
11) In the conclusion, the authors mention that: "[...] the results of this research were obtained based on a significant selection of socio-economic and climate-related variables, an improved methodological assessment, and a GIS-based approach". Any GIS approach has been performed in the current manuscript. The display of the vulnerability into a map is not a GIS approach, nor it is new.
11) The legends of the figures are missing the unit of measurement
I feel that much more is needed, starting from a deep study on the physical characteristics of extremes temperature and how this hazard may be impacted and can impact people and targeted groups.
Ibolya Török et al.
Ibolya Török et al.
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