Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-303
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-303

  09 Nov 2021

09 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Understanding rockfalls along the national road G318 in China: from source area identification to hazard probability simulation

Lixia Chen1, Yu Zhao1, Yuanyao Li2, Lei Gui3, Kunlong Yin3, and Dhruba Pikha Shrestha4 Lixia Chen et al.
  • 1Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
  • 2Institute of Geological Survey, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
  • 3Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
  • 4Department of Earth Systems Analysis, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands

Abstract. Rockfall hazard is frequent along the national road (G318) in west Hubei, China. To understand the distribution and potential hazard probability, this study combines the result of a 3-years engineering geological investigation, statistical modeling, and kinemics-based method to identify risky road sections. Rockfall hazard probability is calculated by integrating spatial, temporal, size probability, and reaching probabilities of source areas. Rockfall source areas are preliminarily identified first by slope angle threshold (SAT) analysis. Random Forest model (RFM) and multivariate logistic regression model (MLRM) are then applied and compared to get the final susceptible source areas, considering eight factors, including slope, aspect, elevation, lithology, joint density, slope structure, land-use type, distance to the road. Temporal and size probability of source areas are separately obtained by Poisson distribution and power-law distribution theory. An important parameter (reach angle) for rockfall trajectory simulation was determined by back analysis in Flow-R and validated by field investigation. The results show good fitness with the measurements by field investigation. In the conditions of 5, 20, and 50 years return period, potential risky road sections are found out under two size scenarios (larger than 1 000 m3, 10 000 m3). This research helps the local government to completely understand the rock falls from source area existence and potential risk to roads.

Lixia Chen et al.

Status: open (until 21 Dec 2021)

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Lixia Chen et al.

Lixia Chen et al.

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Short summary
Rockfall is frequent along the national road (G318) in China. In order to identify the location of roadside collapse to reduce the threat to the road. The source area, movement range, time probability, and scale probability of collapse disaster all need to be calculated quantitatively. Combined with the spatial probability, time probability, and scale probability of collapse, the risk formula is used to get the risk of collapse.
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