the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Improving snowfall representation in climate simulations via statistical models informed by air temperature and total precipitation
Abstract. The description and analysis of compound extremes affecting mid and high latitudes in the winter requires an accurate estimation of snowfall. Such variable is often missing for in-situ observations, and biased in climate model outputs, both in magnitude and number of events. While climate models can be adjusted using bias correction (BC), snowfall presents additional challenges compared to other variables, preventing from applying traditional univariate BC methods. We extend the existing literature on the estimation of the snowfall fraction from near-surface temperature, which usually involves binary thresholds or fitting parametric nonlinear functions. We show that, combining breakpoint search algorithms to define threshold temperatures and segmented regression models, it is possible to obtain accurate out-of-sample estimates of snowfall over Europe in ERA5 reanalysis, and to perform effective BC on the IPSL-WRF high resolution EURO-CORDEX climate model only relying on bias adjusted temperature and precipitation. This method offers a feasible way to reconstruct or adjust snowfall observations without requiring multivariate or conditional bias correction and stochastic generation of unobserved events.
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Preprint
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Interactive discussion
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RC1: 'A comprehensive work that is, however, not too informative', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Dec 2020
- AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Flavio Pons, 14 Mar 2021
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RC2: 'Comments on nhess-2020-352', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Jan 2021
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Flavio Pons, 14 Mar 2021
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RC3: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #3, 01 Feb 2021
- AC1: 'Reply on RC3', Flavio Pons, 14 Mar 2021
Interactive discussion
-
RC1: 'A comprehensive work that is, however, not too informative', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Dec 2020
- AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Flavio Pons, 14 Mar 2021
-
RC2: 'Comments on nhess-2020-352', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Jan 2021
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Flavio Pons, 14 Mar 2021
-
RC3: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #3, 01 Feb 2021
- AC1: 'Reply on RC3', Flavio Pons, 14 Mar 2021
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