Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.
An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides
Mingdong Zang,Shengwen Qi,Zhuping Sheng,Blanca S. Zamora,and Yu Zou
Abstract. Coseismic landslides have been responsible for destroyed buildings and structures, dislocated roads and bridges, cut off of pipelines and lifelines, and tens of thousands of deaths. Newmark's method is widely applied to assess the permanent displacement along a potential slide surface to determine the coseismic responses of the slope. The Mw 6.1 (USGS) earthquake in Ludian, Yunnan Province, China in 2014 has caused widespread landslides and provided the ideal data sets to conduct a regional analysis of coseismic stability of slopes. The data sets include the topography, shear strength, and ground shaking of the study area. All of these data sets are digitized and rasterized at 30 m grid spacing using ArcGIS and combined in a dynamic slope model based on Newmark permanent-deformation analysis. The application of Barton model was then applied in the permanent-deformation analysis. According to a method of inexact reasoning, comparisons are made between the predicted displacements and a comprehensive inventory of landslides triggered by the Ludian earthquake to map the spatial variability in certainty factors. A coseismic landslide hazard map is then produced based on the spatial distribution of the values of certainty factors. Such map can be applied to predict the hazard zone of the region and provide guidelines for making decisions regarding infrastructure development and post-earthquake reconstruction.
How to cite. Zang, M., Qi, S., Sheng, Z., Zamora, B. S., and Zou, Y.: An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-42, 2019.
Received: 16 Feb 2019 – Discussion started: 22 Mar 2019
Coseismic landslides often cause great loss of lives and properties in the seismic zone. Accurately mapping the hazards is a very important and challenge work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface-unloading joint, incorporates the seismic hazard analysis of the study area, and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is well verified by Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014.
Coseismic landslides often cause great loss of lives and properties in the seismic zone....