the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Towards impact-based flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh: a case study at the local level in Sirajganj district
Abstract. Impact-based forecasting and warning services aim to bridge the gap between producers and users of warning information by connecting and increasing synergies between the components of effective early warning systems. We tested qualitatively whether a warning message based on colour codes is understandable and useful to trigger risk mitigation actions at the local level in the flood-exposed communities of Rajapur and Ghorjan unions in Sirajganj district, Bangladesh. With a community-based approach for different groups of users (i.e. sectors), flood-impact scenarios were determined from past events and related to colour codes. These were developed into impact-based forecasting and warnings that can connect water levels, through the colour code, to localised guidance information tailored to sectors’ needs on how to respond to the expected flood. This approach was tested through a limited number of focus group discussions and interviews at the community level. Overall, the colour coded impact-based warnings were found to be an easy and understandable way to link water level forecasts to the necessary risk mitigation actions, however, further investigation is needed to validate these findings under real-time conditions. IBFW has huge potential in Bangladesh but its integration requires significant institutional changes, such as an inter-facing agency (long term) or team (short term), adjusted policy frameworks (standing orders on disasters), and new resource allocations for skills development and technological innovation from national to local levels. Overall, this paper aims to offer a first insight into impact-based forecasting and warning services in Bangladesh to trigger further research and project developments.
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RC1: 'Local relevance but few data for generating more interest by the community', Massimiliano Zappa, 06 Apr 2018
- AC1: 'Interactive replies to review comments', Fabio Sai, 16 May 2018
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RC2: 'Reviewer comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Jun 2018
- AC2: 'Final author comments', Fabio Sai, 23 Jul 2018
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RC1: 'Local relevance but few data for generating more interest by the community', Massimiliano Zappa, 06 Apr 2018
- AC1: 'Interactive replies to review comments', Fabio Sai, 16 May 2018
-
RC2: 'Reviewer comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Jun 2018
- AC2: 'Final author comments', Fabio Sai, 23 Jul 2018
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Cited
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Non-DRR NGOs strategies for livelihood development in the coastal communities of Bangladesh: a case study M. Seddiky et al. 10.1007/s11069-021-05097-7
- Flash flood warnings in context: combining local knowledge and large-scale hydro-meteorological patterns A. Bucherie et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-461-2022
- Water Level Forecasting Using Spatiotemporal Attention-Based Long Short-Term Memory Network F. Noor et al. 10.3390/w14040612
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al. 10.1029/2020RG000704
- Lava flow impacts on the built environment: insights from a new global dataset E. Meredith et al. 10.1186/s13617-023-00140-7
- Evaluating South African Weather Service information on Idai tropical cyclone and KwaZulu-Natal flood events (with corrigendum) M. Bopape et al. 10.17159/sajs.2021/7911
- Impact-based flash-flood forecasting system: Sensitivity to high resolution numerical weather prediction systems and soil moisture F. Silvestro et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.055