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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2195-9269</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-2018-26</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Towards impact-based flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh: a case study at the local level in Sirajganj district</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sai</surname>
<given-names>Fabio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cumiskey</surname>
<given-names>Lydia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Weerts</surname>
<given-names>Albrecht</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3249-8363</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bhattacharya</surname>
<given-names>Biswa</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8046-589X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Haque Khan</surname>
<given-names>Raihanul</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>A.I.Po, Interregional Agency for the Po River, Milan, 20124, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London, NW4 4BT, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Hydroinformatics Chair Group, IHE-Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, 2611 AX, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>RIMES, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2018</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>20</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2018 Fabio Sai et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2018</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-26/">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-26/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-26/nhess-2018-26.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2018-26/nhess-2018-26.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Impact-based forecasting and warning services aim to bridge the gap between producers and users of warning information by connecting and increasing synergies between the components of effective early warning systems. We tested qualitatively whether a warning message based on colour codes is understandable and useful to trigger risk mitigation actions at the local level in the flood-exposed communities of Rajapur and Ghorjan unions in Sirajganj district, Bangladesh. With a community-based approach for different groups of users (i.e. sectors), flood-impact scenarios were determined from past events and related to colour codes. These were developed into impact-based forecasting and warnings that can connect water levels, through the colour code, to localised guidance information tailored to sectors’ needs on how to respond to the expected flood. This approach was tested through a limited number of focus group discussions and interviews at the community level. Overall, the colour coded impact-based warnings were found to be an easy and understandable way to link water level forecasts to the necessary risk mitigation actions, however, further investigation is needed to validate these findings under real-time conditions. IBFW has huge potential in Bangladesh but its integration requires significant institutional changes, such as an inter-facing agency (long term) or team (short term), adjusted policy frameworks (standing orders on disasters), and new resource allocations for skills development and technological innovation from national to local levels. Overall, this paper aims to offer a first insight into impact-based forecasting and warning services in Bangladesh to trigger further research and project developments.</p>
</abstract>
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