Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.
Using spatial Markovian chain for the statistical analysis of seismic occurrences in the Azores Region
Maria Cecília M. Rodriguesand Carlos S. Oliveira
Abstract. The objective of this paper is to study the spatial sequence of the epicentral locations of seismic occurrences (Space variable) in the Azores region. In a previous investigation based on geological considerations and statistical criteria that addresses the existing historical and instrumental information, the epicentral locations were assigned to seven seismic zones.
This paper focuses on the analysis of occurrences in the seven seismic zones using Markovian chains.
The probability of occurrence of an earthquake in one of the seven adopted zones is estimated, revealing great differences among the seismic zones.
Additionally, the one-step transitions of this variable (seismic zone for the next occurrence in time) are explored and show an evident dependence between consecutive earthquake locations. Assuming that the process is stationary, N-step transitions are also discussed. Based on the developed Markovian model, this study also simulates the sequence of epicentral zones where occurrences can take place, which is an important component of modelling the entire process of seismic occurrences in the Azores region.
Received: 30 Mar 2016 – Discussion started: 13 May 2016
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