Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 653–662, 2006

Special issue: Spatial prediction modeling in natural hazards and risk

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 653–662, 2006

  21 Jul 2006

21 Jul 2006

Reactivation hazard mapping for ancient landslides in West Belgium

O. Dewitte1, C.-J. Chung2, and A. Demoulin1,3 O. Dewitte et al.
  • 1Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary, University of Liège, Allée du 6 Août, 2, Sart Tilman (Bât. B11), 4000 Liège, Belgium
  • 2Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8, Canada
  • 3Research Associate of the Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research, Belgium

Abstract. Several examples in western Europe have shown that, at least for deep-seated rotational slides, reactivation of formerly slipped masses is a more frequent phenomenon than the occurrence of new landslides, therefore representing a higher hazard. We selected a study area comprised of 13 landslides located in the Flemish Ardennes (West Belgium) and predicted the hazard related to scarp retreat. The scarp reactivations were identified from the comparison of DTMs produced for 1952 and 1996. Robust results were obtained with the Gamma operator of a fuzzy set approach and a combination of geomorphic, topographic and land use data. We built first a prediction model from the relations linking the 1952–1996 retreat events to the conditioning parameters of 1952. The prediction rate of the resulting susceptibility map is estimated by a cross-validation procedure. We then applied the statistics of this model to the data of 1996 in order to produce a susceptibility map responding to the present-day conditions. Finally, we estimated the conditional probabilities of occurrence of future reactivations for the period 1996–2036.