Articles | Volume 6, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 611–619, 2006

Special issue: Mediterranean Storms (Plinius 2004)

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 611–619, 2006

  12 Jul 2006

12 Jul 2006

Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area

N. Rebora1, L. Ferraris2,1, J. von Hardenberg1,3, and A. Provenzale1,3 N. Rebora et al.
  • 1CIMA, University of Genoa and University of Basilicata, Savona, Italy
  • 2DIST, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
  • 3ISAC-CNR, Turin, Italy

Abstract. The prediction of the small-scale spatial-temporal pattern of intense rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment in small catchments and urban areas. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. In this work we present an application of a new spatial-temporal downscaling procedure, called RainFARM, to an intense precipitation event predicted by the limited-area meteorological model Lokal Model over north-west Italy. The uncertainty in flood prediction associated with the small unresolved scales of forecasted precipitation fields is evaluated by using an ensemble of downscaled fields to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model.