Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2629-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2629-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Invited perspectives
| Highlight paper
| 
07 Aug 2025
Invited perspectives | Highlight paper |
| 07 Aug 2025
| 07 Aug 2025
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm intensification from mountains to plains
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Pieter Groenemeijer
European Severe Storms Laboratory - Science & Training, Wiener Neustadt, Austria
European Severe Storms Laboratory e. V., Wessling, Germany
Alois Holzer
European Severe Storms Laboratory - Science & Training, Wiener Neustadt, Austria
European Severe Storms Laboratory e. V., Wessling, Germany
Monika Feldmann
Institute of Geography - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Katharina Schröer
Department of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
Francesco Battaglioli
European Severe Storms Laboratory e. V., Wessling, Germany
Lisa Schielicke
Institute for Geosciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Western Ontario, London, Canada
Tomáš Púčik
European Severe Storms Laboratory - Science & Training, Wiener Neustadt, Austria
Bogdan Antonescu
European Severe Storms Laboratory e. V., Wessling, Germany
Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Măgurele, Romania
Christoph Gatzen
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, Canada
Canadian Severe Storms Laboratory, London, Canada
A full list of authors appears at the end of the paper.
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Annette Rudolph, Lisa Schielicke, Peter Nevir, Trude Storelvmo, and Nikki Vercauteren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4181, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
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Shallow cumulus clouds strongly affect Earth’s radiation, but their feedback remains uncertain. This study uses high-resolution CM1 simulations to examine how these clouds in subtropical and polar regions respond to warming. Results show regional contrasts: clouds slightly weaken in the subtropics but deepen and become denser in polar areas. Novel thermodynamic and dynamic Dynamic State Index (DSI) variants reliably identify these clouds and help analyze their climate change response.
Florian Ackermann, Martin Aregger, Daniele Nerini, Simone Balmelli, Alessandro Hering, Josué Gehring, and Monika Feldmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4243, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
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Severe storms in Switzerland cause dangerous winds that are hard to track. We created an algorithm using weather radar and lightning data to detect them. By training it on official weather records and public reports, our algorithm identifies damaging gusts more accurately than current tools. This provides a better way to monitor severe weather, helping protect people and property as these storms may intensify due to a warming climate.
Lena Wilhelm, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Cornelia Schwierz, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1681–1707, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1681-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1681-2026, 2026
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Hailstorms are among the most damaging natural hazards in Switzerland, yet drivers of their year-to-year variability remain unclear. Using a 64-year reconstruction of hail days and atmospheric reanalysis, we show that active hail seasons are linked to recurring large-scale circulation patterns and seasonally preconditioned sea and land surface conditions that repeatedly bring warm, moist, unstable environments. Our findings underpin seasonal hail prediction and can support risk preparedness.
Elena Päffgen, Lisa Schielicke, and Leonie Esters
Geosci. Commun., 9, 345–370, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-345-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-345-2026, 2026
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Balancing academic careers and family responsibilities presents significant challenges, particularly for early-career researchers attending conferences. These events are essential for professional development but often create logistical difficulties for parents. Based on a survey of geoscientists, we show that parents require more support and non-parents largely approve of family-friendly measures. We provide practical guidelines to help conference organizers support researchers with families.
Tom Dörffel, Natalia Mikula, Lisa Schielicke, Theresa Kiszler, Davide Faranda, Berengere Dubrulle, and Nikki Vercauteren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2918, 2026
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We investigate how two different indicators related to measures of energy transfer can be used to assess the dynamics of tropical cyclones. One indicator is based on the energy redistribution across length-scales and the other one is based on more fundamental thermodynamic principles. This research demonstrates the potential of these indicators of being used as predictors for the intensity change of tropical cyclones even in under-resolved simulations.
Monika Feldmann, Sandro Beer, Aaron W. Zeeb, Killian P. Brennan, Lena Wilhelm, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-615-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-615-2026, 2026
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Supercell thunderstorms are among Europe's most damaging storms. Using high-resolution climate data, we compare left-moving (LM) and right-moving (RM) supercells. RMs have larger areas of intense rainfall, hail, and lightning, while LMs are smaller but can reach similar intensities and occur in warmer, less stable conditions. In a warmer climate, supercell hazards intensify, especially for LMs. A regional analysis shows how regional climates further influence storm conditions and hazards.
Monika Feldmann, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1089-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1089-2025, 2025
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Severe thunderstorm outbreaks are a source of major damage across Europe. Using historical data, we analysed the large-scale weather patterns leading to these outbreaks in eight different regions. Three types of regions emerge: those limited by temperature, those limited by saturation, and those overall favourable for thunderstorms, consistent with their associated weather patterns and the general climate. These findings help explain regional differences and provide a basis for future forecast improvements.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, and Lisa Schielicke
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 695–713, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-695-2025, 2025
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) in the warm season, but the drivers and environments of cells at different locations relative to the front are not well-understood. We show that cells ahead of the surface front have the highest amount of environmental instability and moisture. Also, low-level lifting is maximised ahead of the surface front and upper-level lifting is particularly important for cell initiation behind the front.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Lisa Schielicke, Yidan Li, Jerome Schyns, Aaron Sperschneider, Jose Pablo Solano Marchini, and Christoph Peter Gatzen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 703–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-703-2024, 2024
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We present course contents and results of a 2-week educational block course with a focus on Cloud Model 1 (CM1) and 3D visualization. Through hands-on experience, students gained skills in setting up and customizing the model and visualizing its output in 3D. The research aimed to bridge the gap between classroom learning and practical applications, fostering a deeper understanding of convective processes and preparing students for future careers in the field.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
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Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
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Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
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Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Monika Feldmann, Urs Germann, Marco Gabella, and Alexis Berne
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1225–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1225-2021, 2021
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Mesocyclones are the rotating updraught of supercell thunderstorms that present a particularly hazardous subset of thunderstorms. A first-time characterisation of the spatiotemporal occurrence of mesocyclones in the Alpine region is presented, using 5 years of Swiss operational radar data. We investigate parallels to hailstorms, particularly the influence of large-scale flow, daily cycles and terrain. Improving understanding of mesocyclones is valuable for risk assessment and warning purposes.
Hélène Barras, Olivia Martius, Luca Nisi, Katharina Schroeer, Alessandro Hering, and Urs Germann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1167–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, 2021
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In Switzerland hail may occur several days in a row. Such multi-day hail events may cause significant damage, and understanding and forecasting these events is important. Using reanalysis data we show that weather systems over Europe move slower before and during multi-day hail events compared to single hail days. Surface temperatures are typically warmer and the air more humid over Switzerland and winds are slower on multi-day hail clusters. These results may be used for hail forecasting.
Carola Detring, Annette Müller, Lisa Schielicke, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 927–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, 2021
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Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions. Within this study the temporal evolution of the occurrence probability is analyzed, and the onset, decay and transition probabilities of blocking within the past 30 years are modeled. Using Markov models combined with logistic regression, we found large changes in summer, where the probability of transitions to so-called Omega blocks increases strongly, while the unblocked state becomes less probable.
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Editorial statement
Observations suggest a clustering of severe convective storms near orography. The paper provides information on the gaps in our process understanding and the measurement techniques which are currently hampering an improved prediction of the events and their associated hazards. It provides an outline of a multinational coordinated European field campaign on Thunderstorm Intensification from Mountains to Plains.
Observations suggest a clustering of severe convective storms near orography. The paper provides...
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near European mountain ranges, so observations of such storms are needed. This article gives an overview of our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill the knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain in the past. However, they are...
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