Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Brief communication
 | 
16 Dec 2024
Brief communication |  | 16 Dec 2024

Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards

Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann

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Latest update: 28 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or what if scenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
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