Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 03 Mar 2023
| 03 Mar 2023
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium
Geography Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Geology Department, Université de Goma, Campus Universitaire du Lac, Rue Eugène Serufuli 43, Quartier Katindo, Goma, North Kivu province, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Matthieu Kervyn
Geography Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
François Muhashy Habiyaremye
Geology Department, Université de Goma, Campus Universitaire du Lac, Rue Eugène Serufuli 43, Quartier Katindo, Goma, North Kivu province, Democratic Republic of the Congo
François Kervyn
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium
Caroline Michellier
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-57, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study produced a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explored multi-hazards assessment and risk through a machine learning modelling approach. The process includes (1) collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data, (2) developing models for multi-hazards assessment and coding in Google Earth Engine, and (3) producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Daniel O'Hara, Liran Goren, Roos M. J. van Wees, Benjamin Campforts, Pablo Grosse, Pierre Lahitte, Gabor Kereszturi, and Matthieu Kervyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1921, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how volcanic edifices develop drainage basins remains an unexplored aspect of landscape evolution. Using Digital Evolution Models of volcanoes with varying ages, we quantify the geometries of their edifices and associated drainage basins through time. We find that these metrics correlate with edifice age, and are thus useful indicators of a volcano’s history. We then develop a generalized model for volcano basin develop and compare our results to basin evolution in other settings.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Ante Ivčević, Hubert Mazurek, Lionel Siame, Raquel Bertoldo, Vania Statzu, Kamal Agharroud, Isabel Estrela Rego, Nibedita Mukherjee, and Olivier Bellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3749–3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The results from two Mediterranean case studies, in north Morocco and west Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions for risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Liesbet Jacobs, Olivier Dewitte, Jean Poesen, John Sekajugo, Adriano Nobile, Mauro Rossi, Wim Thiery, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 105–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
While country-specific, continental and global susceptibility maps are increasingly available, local and regional susceptibility studies remain rare in remote and data-poor settings. Here, we provide a landslide susceptibility assessment for the inhabited region of the Rwenzori Mountains. We find that higher spatial resolutions do not necessarily lead to better models and that models built for local case studies perform better than aggregated susceptibility assessments on the regional scale.
S. Mossoux, A. Delcamp, S. Poppe, C. Michellier, F. Canters, and M. Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 135–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-135-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations. However, what are the real factors influencing a disaster? Hazagora is a board game aimed at inducing a better understanding of geohazards and disasters and at generating discussions about risk management strategies. Based on analysis, Hazagora appears to be an effective, fun learning tool that positively enhances the player's insight into processes involved in disasters.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics and accuracy of risk perceptions
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas: A blueprint for regional multisectoral drought impact assessment
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using and Agent-Based model. Case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sector
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of Life Cycle Consequence (LCCon) Analysis.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, Wouter J. W. Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeff Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-163, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth and economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008 – 2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios, by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and the decision making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Cited articles
Arellano, S., Yalire, M., Galle, B., Bobrowski, N., Dingwell, A., Johansson,
M., and Norman, P.: Long-term monitoring of SO2 quiescent degassing from
Nyiragongo's lava lake, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 134, 866–873,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2016.07.002, 2017.
Bamberg, S., Masson, T., Brewitt, K., and Nemetschek, N.: Threat, coping and
flood prevention – A meta-analysis, J. Environ. Psychol., 54, 116–126,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2017.08.001, 2017.
Barberi, F., Davis, M. S., Isaia, R., Nave, R., and Ricci, T.: Volcanic risk
perception in the Vesuvius population, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172,
244–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.011, 2008.
Barclay, J., Haynes, K., Houghton, B., and Johnston, D.: Social Processes
and Volcanic Risk Reduction, in: The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, Elsevier,
1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385938-9.00069-9, 2015.
Barclay, J., Few, R., Armijos, M. T., Phillips, J. C., Pyle, D. M., Hicks,
A., Brown, S. K., and Robertson, R. E. A.: Livelihoods, Wellbeing and the
Risk to Life During Volcanic Eruptions, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 205,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00205, 2019.
Barrett, H. C.: Deciding what to observe: Thoughts for a post-WEIRD
generation, Evol. Hum. Behav., 41, 445–453,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2020.05.006, 2020.
Barrière, J., D'Oreye, N., Smets, B., Oth, A., Delhaye, L., Subira, J.,
Mashagiro, N., Derauw, D., Smittarello, D., Syavulisembo, A. M., and Kervyn,
F.: Intra-Crater Eruption Dynamics at Nyiragongo (D.R. Congo), 2002–2021, J.
Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 127, 2002–2021,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023858, 2022.
Bee, B. A.: Power, perception, and adaptation: Exploring gender and
social-environmental risk perception in northern Guanajuato, Mexico, Geoforum, 69, 71–80, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.12.006, 2016.
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B.: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters, 2nd edn., Routledge, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203714775, 2004.
Blake, D., Marlowe, J., and Johnston, D.: Get prepared: Discourse for the
privileged?, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 25, 283–288,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.012, 2017.
Botterill, L. and Mazur, N.: Risk and risk perception: A literature review, in: Kingston Act 2604, Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, ISBN 0642587531, 2004.
Brewer, N. T., Chapman, G. B., Gibbons, F. X., Gerrard, M., McCaul, K. D.,
and Weinstein, N. D.: Meta-analysis of the relationship between risk
perception and health behavior: The example of vaccination, Heal. Psychol.,
26, 136–145, https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.26.2.136, 2007.
Bronfman, N. C., Cisternas, P. C., López-Vázquez, E., and Cifuentes,
L. A.: Trust and risk perception of natural hazards: implications for risk
preparedness in Chile, Nat. Hazards, 81, 307–327,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2080-4, 2016.
Bronfman, N. C., Cisternas, P. C., Repetto, P. B., Castañeda, J. V., and
Guic, E.: Understanding the Relationship Between Direct Experience and Risk
Perception of Natural Hazards, Risk Anal., 40, 2057–2070,
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13526, 2020.
Brown, S. K., Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Vye-Brown, C., Barclay, J.,
Calder, E., Cottrell, E., Jolly, G., Komorowski, J. C., Mandeville, C.,
Newhall, C., Palma, J., Potter, S., and Valentine, G.: Global volcanic
hazard and risk, Cambridge University press, 81–172, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.004, 2015.
Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., Sparks, R. S. J., Odbert, H., and Auker, M.
R.: Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance
and victim classification, J. Appl. Volcanol., 6 15,
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-017-0067-4, 2017.
Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: A Review of Risk
Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior, Risk
Anal., 32, 1481–1495, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01783.x, 2012.
Büscher, K., Fellow, R., Vlassenroot, K., and Coordinator, C.:
Humanitarian presence and urban development: new opportunities and contrasts
in Goma, DRC, Disasters, 34, S256–S273,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01157.x, 2010.
Capra, L., Gavilanes-Ruiz, J. C., Bonasia, R., Saucedo-Giron, R., and
Sulpizio, R.: Re-assessing volcanic hazard zonation of Volcán de Colima,
México, Nat. Hazards, 76, 41–61, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1480-1, 2015.
Carlino, S., Somma, R., and Mayberry, G. C.: Volcanic risk perception of
young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic
areas and implications for emergency management, J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res., 172, 229–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.010, 2008.
Chauvin, B.: Individual Differences in the Judgment of Risks:
Sociodemographic Characteristics, Cultural Orientation, and Level of
Expertise, in: Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis Theory,
Models, and Applications, edited by: Raue, M., Streicher, E. L., and
Streicher, B., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 37–80,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92478-6_4, 2018.
Chester, D. K., Duncan, A. M., and Dibben, C. J. L.: The importance of
religion in shaping volcanic risk perception in Italy, with special
reference to Vesuvius and Etna, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172, 216–228,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.009, 2008.
De la Cruz-Reyna, S. and Tilling, R. I.: Scientific and public responses to
the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance
of an effective hazards-warning system, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 170,
121–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.09.002, 2008.
Delhaye, L. and Smets, B.: Time-Series in Structure-from-Motion
Photogrammetry: Testing Co-Registration Approaches for Topographic Change
Analysis, in: IGARSS 2021 – 2021 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote
Sensing Symposium, 11–16 July 2021, Brussels, Belgium, IGARSS, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS47720.2021.9553796, 2021.
Dieckmann, N. F., Gregory, R., Satterfield, T., Mayorga, M., and Slovic, P.:
Characterizing public perceptions of social and cultural impacts in policy
decisions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2020491118,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020491118, 2021.
Donovan, A.: Critical volcanology? Thinking holistically about risk and
uncertainty, Bull. Volcanol., 81, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-019-1279-8, 2019.
Donovan, A. and Oppenheimer, C.: Science, policy and place in volcanic
disasters: Insights from Montserrat, Environ. Sci. Policy, 39, 150–161,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.08.009, 2014.
Donovan, A., Eiser, J. R., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Expert opinion and
probabilistic volcanic risk assessment, J. Risk Res., 20, 693–710,
https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1115425, 2017.
Donovan, A., Ayala, I. A., Eiser, J. R., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Risk
perception at a persistently active volcano: warnings and trust at
Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico, 2012–2014, Bull. Volcanol., 80,
2012–2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-018-1218-0, 2018.
Donovan, K.: Doing social volcanology: Exploring volcanic culture in
Indonesia, Area, 42, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2009.00899.x,
2010.
Douglas, M. and Wildavsky, A.: How Can We Know the Risks We Face? Why Risk
Selection Is a Social Process, Risk Anal., 2, 49–58,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01365.x, 1982.
Favalli, M., Chirico, G. D., Papale, P., Pareschi, M. T., Coltelli, M.,
Lucaya, N., and Boschi, E.: Computer simulations of lava flow paths in the
town of Goma, Nyiragongo volcano, Democratic Republic of Congo, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 111, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003527, 2006.
Favalli, M., Chirico, G. D., Papale, P., Pareschi, M. T., and Boschi, E.:
Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. 1. Model calibration and
hazard mapping, Bull. Volcanol., 71, 363–374,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0233-y, 2009.
Favereau, M., Robledo, L. F., and Bull, M. T.: Erratum: Analysis of risk
assessment factors of individuals in volcanic hazards: Review of the last
decade, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 365, 57–64,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.10.009, 2018.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S., and Combs, B.: How
safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes toward technological
risks and benefits, Policy Sci., 9, 127–152, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143739, 1978.
Floyd, D. L., Prentice-Dunn, S., and Rogers, R. W.: A Meta-Analysis or
research on Protection Motivation Theory, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 30,
407–429, 2000.
Gaillard, J. C. and Dibben, C. J. L.: Volcanic risk perception and beyond,
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172, 163–169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.015, 2007.
Gaillard, J. C. and Mercer, J.: From knowledge to action: Bridging gaps in
disaster risk reduction, Prog. Hum. Geogr., 37, 93–114,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132512446717, 2013.
Gaillard, J. C. and Texier, P.: Religions, natural hazards, and disasters:
An introduction, Religion, 40, 81–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.religion.2009.12.001, 2010.
Hall, T. E. and Slothower, M.: Cognitive Factors Affecting Homeowners'
Reactions to Defensible Space in the Oregon Coast Range, Soc. Nat. Resour.
An Int. J., 22, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920802392187, 2009.
Han, H.: Consumer behavior and environmental sustainability in tourism and
hospitality: a review of theories, concepts, and latest research, J.
Sustain. Tour., 29, 1021–1042, https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2021.1903019, 2021.
Harpe, S. E.: How to analyze Likert and other rating scale data, Curr.
Pharm. Teach. Learn., 7, 836–850, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cptl.2015.08.001, 2015.
Haynes, K., Barclay, J., and Pidgeon, N.: Whose reality counts? Factors
affecting the perception of volcanic risk, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172,
259–272, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.012, 2008.
Heitz, C., Spaeter, S., Auzet, A., and Glatron, S.: Local stakeholders'
perception of muddy flood risk and implications for management approaches:
A case study in Alsace (France), Land Use Policy, 26, 443–451,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.05.008, 2009.
Henrich, J., Heine, S. J., and Norenzayan, A.: The weirdest people in the
world?, Behav. Brain Sci., 33, 61–83, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X0999152X, 2010.
INS: Rapport démographique de la ville de Goma: année 2020, Goma, Institut National de Statistiques, https://www.ins-nordkivu.org/index.php, last access: 20 March 2021.
Kervyn, M., Barrette, F., Poppe, S., Smets, B., Syavulisembo, A. M., Makundi, J. K., Kahashi, Y. N., Mossoux, S., Kervyn, F., and Michellier, C.: Assessing lava flow susceptibility at neighbouring volcanoes: Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes, Journal of Applied Volcanology, submitted, 2022.
Khan, S. U., Qureshi, M. I., Rana, I. A., and Maqsoom, A.: An empirical
relationship between seismic risk perception and physical vulnerability: A
case study of Malakand, Pakistan, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 41, 101317,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101317, 2019.
Knoll, L. J., Leung, J. T., Foulkes, L., and Blakemore, S. J.: Age-related
differences in social influence on risk perception depend on the direction
of influence, J. Adolesc., 60, 53–63,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adolescence.2017.07.002, 2017.
Komorowski, J.-C., Tedesco, D., Kasereka, M., Allard, P., Papale, P.,
Vaselli, O., Durieux, J., Baxter, P., Halbwachs, M., Akumbe, M., Baluku, B.,
Briole, P., Ciraba, M., Dupin, J.-C., Etoy, O., Garcin, D., Hamaguchi, H.,
Houlié, N., Kavotha, K.S Lemarchand, A Lockwood, J., Lukaya, N.,
Mavonga, G., de Michele, M., Mpore, S., Mukambilwa, K Munyololo, F.,
Newhall, C., Ruch, J., Yalire, M., and Wafula, M.: The January 2002 flank
eruption of Nyiragongo volcano (Democratic Republic of Congo): chronology,
evidence for a tectonic rift trigger, and impact of lava flows on the city
of Goma, Acta Vulcanol., 14, 27–62, 2002.
Kothe, E. J., Ling, M., North, M., Klas, A., Mullan, B. A., and
Novoradovskaya, L.: Protection motivation theory and pro-environmental
behaviour: A systematic mapping review, Aust. J. Psychol., 71, 411–432,
https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12271, 2019.
Krejcie, R. V. and Morgan, D. W.: Determining Sample Size for Research
Activities, Educ. Psychol. Meas., 30, 607–610, 1970.
Lechowska, E.: Approaches in research on flood risk perception and their importance in flood risk management: a review, Nat. Hazards, 111, 2343–2378, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05140-7, 2022.
Lemée, C., Fleury-Bahi, G., and Navarro, O.: Impact of place identity,
self-efficacy and anxiety state on the relationship between coastal flooding
risk perception and the willingness to cope, Front. Psychol., 10, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00499, 2019.
Lindell, M. K. and Perry, R. W.: Household adjustment to earthquake hazard:
A Review of Research, Environ. Behav., 32, 461–501, 2000.
Lindell, M. K. and Perry, R. W.: The Protective Action Decision Model:
Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence, Risk Anal., 32, 616–632,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01647.x, 2012.
López-Fletes, C. A., van Loenhout, J. A. F., and Kervyn, M.: Risk
Perception and Implementation of Mitigation Measures By Populations Living
Near Volcán De Colima, Mexico, Hum. Ecol., 50, 435–446,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-021-00304-2, 2022.
Maddux, J. E. and Rogers, R. W.: Protection motivation and self-efficacy: A
revised theory of fear appeals and attitude change, J. Exp. Soc. Psychol.,
19, 469–479, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(83)90023-9, 1983.
Mafuko Nyandwi, B.: Risk perception among Goma population before the 2021 Nyiragongo eruption, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7638998, 2023.
Martin, B.: The sociology of the fluoridation controversy: A Reexamination,
Sociol. Q., 30, 59–76, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1989.tb01511.x, 1989.
Merlhiot, G., Mermillod, M., Le Pennec, J. L., Hidalgo, S., and Mondillon,
L.: Reducing uncertainty to promote appropriate decisions when facing
hazardous phenomena at an active volcano, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 48,
227–234, https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12507, 2018.
Mertens, K., Jacobs, L., Maes, J., Poesen, J., Kervyn, M., and Vranken, L.:
Disaster risk reduction among households exposed to landslide hazard, A
crucial role for self-efficacy?, Land Use Policy, 75, 77–91, 2018.
Miceli, R., Sotgiu, I., and Settanni, M.: Disaster preparedness and
perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy, J. Environ.
Psychol., 28, 164–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2007.10.006, 2008.
Michellier, C., Pigeon, P., Kervyn, F., and Wolff, E.: Contextualizing
vulnerability assessment: a support to geo-risk management in central
Africa, Nat. Hazards, 82, 27–42, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2295-z,
2016.
Michellier, C., Kervyn, M., Barette, F., Muhindo Syavulisembo, A., Kimanuka,
C., Kulimushi Mataboro, S., Hage, F., Wolff, E., and Kervyn, F.: Evaluating
population vulnerability to volcanic risk in a data scarcity context: The
case of Goma city, Virunga volcanic province (DRCongo), Int. J. Disast.
Risk Reduct., 45, 101460, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101460, 2020.
Mileti, D. S. and O'Brien, P. W.: Warnings during Disaster: Normalizing
Communicated Risk, Soc. Probl., 39, 40–57, https://doi.org/10.2307/3096912,
1992.
Milne, S., Sheeran, P., and Orbell, S.: Prediction and intervention in
health-related behavior: A meta-analytic review of protection motivation
theory, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 30, 106–143,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2000.tb02308.x, 2000.
Muhindo Syavulisembo, A.: La Variation Spatio-Temporelle de la Population et L'Analyse De L'Accessibilité à ses Ressources Vitales: Vers une meilleure gestion du risque volcanique à Goma, République démocratique du Congo, unpublished doctoral dissertation, Université libre de Bruxelles, Faculté des Sciences – I.G.E.A.T., Bruxelles, http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/297715 (last access: 24 July 2022), 2019.
Njome, M. S., Suh, C. E., Chuyong, G., and de Wit, M. J.: Volcanic risk
perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon,
West-Central Africa, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 58, 608–622,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2010.08.007, 2010.
Oldenburg, S.: Maisha ni kuvumiliya–patrimonialism, progress and the
ambiguities of waiting in Goma, DR Congo, Crit. African Stud., 12, 37–51,
https://doi.org/10.1080/21681392.2019.1697314, 2020.
Oth, A., Barrière, J., D'Oreye, N., Mavonga, G., Subira, J., Mashagiro,
N., Kadufu, B., Fiama, S., Celli, G., De Dieu Bigirande, J., Ntenge, A. J.,
Habonimana, L., Bakundukize, C., and Kervyn, F.: KivuSNet: The first dense
broadband seismic network for the Kivu Rift Region (Western Branch of East
African Rift), Seismol. Res. Lett., 88, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220160147, 2017.
Paton, D.: Disaster Resilient Communities: Developing and testing an
all-hazards theory, J. Integr. Disaster Risk Manag., 3, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.5595/idrim.2013.0050, 2013.
Paton, D., Johnston, D., Bebbington, M. S., Lai, C. D., and Houghton, B. F.:
Direct and vicarious experience of volcanic hazards: Implications for risk
perception and adjustment adoption, Aust. J. Emerg. Manag., 15, 58–63,
2000.
Paton, D., Smith, L., Daly, M., and Johnston, D.: Risk perception and
volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 172, 179–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.026, 2008.
Pech, L., Büscher, K., and Lakes, T.: Intraurban development in a city
under protracted armed conflict: Patterns and actors in Goma, DR Congo,
Polit. Geogr., 66, 98–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.08.006, 2018.
Perry, R. W. and Lindell, M. K.: Volcanic risk perception and adjustment in
a multi-hazard environment, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172, 170–178,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.006, 2008.
Plattner, Th., Plapp, T., and Hebel, B.: Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 471–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-471-2006, 2006.
Poppe, S., Smets, B., Albino, F., Kervyn, F., and Kervyn, M.: A new
volcano-structural map of the Virunga Volcanic Province, D. R. Congo and
Rwanda, EGU General Assembly 2013, 7–12 April 2023, Vienna, Austria, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 15, EGU2013-7131, 2013.
Pouclet, A. and Bram, K.: Nyiragongo and Nyamuragira: a review of volcanic
activity in the Kivu rift, western branch of the East African Rift System, Bull. Volcanol., 83, 10, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-021-01435-6, 2021.
Quinn, T., Bousquet, F., and Guerbois, C.: Changing places: The role of
sense of place in perceptions of social, environmental and overdevelopment
risks, Glob. Environ. Chang., 57, 101930, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101930, 2019.
Rainear, A. M. and Christensen, J. L.: Protection Motivation Theory as an
Explanatory Framework for Proenvironmental Behavioral Intentions, Commun.
Res. Reports, 34, 239–248, https://doi.org/10.1080/08824096.2017.1286472, 2017.
Ricci, T., Barberi, F., Davis, M. S., Isaia, R., and Nave, R.: Volcanic risk
perception in the Campi Flegrei area, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 254,
118–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.01.002, 2013.
Rogers, R. W.: A Protection Motivation Theory of Fear Appeals and Attitude
Change1, J. Psychol., 91, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.1080/00223980.1975.9915803, 1975.
Schmid, M., Tietze, K., Halbwachs, M., Lorke, A., McGinnis, D. F., and
Wüest, A.: How hazardous is the gas accumulation in Lake Kivu? Arguments
for a risk assesment in light of the Nyiragongo volcano eruption of 2002,
Acta Vulcanol., 14/15, 115–122, 2002.
Siegrist, M., Gutscher, H., and Earle, T. C.: Perception of risk: The
influence of general trust, and general confidence, J. Risk Res., 8,
145–156, https://doi.org/10.1080/1366987032000105315, 2005.
Sim, T., Hung, L. S., Su, G. W., and Cui, K.: Interpersonal communication
sources and natural hazard risk perception: a case study of a rural Chinese
village, Nat. Hazards, 94, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3478-6, 2018.
Sjöberg, L.: Risk Perception is not what it seems: the Psychometric Paradigm Revisited (NEI-SE–437), edited by: Andersson, K., INIS Volume: 35, INIS Issue: 04, Reference Number: 35009763, Sweden, 2003.
Slovic, P.: Risk Perception, Risk Manag., 11, 15–16,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00559.x, 1991.
Slovic, P.: Perception of Risk, Science, 236, 280–285,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3563507, 2000.
Slovic, P. and Weber, E. U.: Perception of Risk Posed by Extreme Events, in: Regulation of Toxic Substances and Hazardous Waste, 2nd edn., edited by: Applegate, E., Gabba, S., Laitos, J. G., and Sachs, N. J., Foundation Press, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2293086 (last access: 6 May 2022), 2013.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S.: The Psychometric Study of
Risk Perception, Risk Eval. Manag., 1, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2103-3_1, 1986.
Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., and MacGregor, D. G.: Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: Some thoughts about affect, reason, risk and rationality, in: The feeling of risk, Routledge, 21–36, 2013.
Smets, B., Tedesco, D., Kervyn, F., Kies, A., Vaselli, O., and Yalire, M.
M.: Dry gas vents (“mazuku”) in Goma region (North-Kivu, Democratic
Republic of Congo): Formation and risk assessment, J. Afr. Earth Sci.,
58, 787–798, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2010.04.008, 2010.
Smets, B., Delvaux, D., Ross, K. A., Poppe, S., Kervyn, M., D'Oreye, N.,
Kervyn, F., Wauthier, C., Cayol, V., Smets, B., D'Oreye, N., and Kervyn, F.:
Magma pathways and their interactions inferred from InSAR and stress
modeling at Nyamulagira Volcano, D.R. Congo, 683, 15179–15202,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2016.06.022, 2015a.
Smets, B., Kervyn, M., d'Oreye, N., and Kervyn, F.: Spatio-temporal dynamics
of eruptions in a youthful extensional setting: Insights from Nyamulagira
Volcano (D.R. Congo), in the western branch of the East African Rift, Earth-Sci. Rev., 150, 305–328, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.08.008, 2015b.
Smets, B., Michellier, C., Syavulisembo, A. M., Munganea, G., d'Oreye, N., and Kervyn, F.: Very high-resolution imaging of the city of goma (North Kivu, DR Congo) using SFM-MVS photogrammetry, in: IGARSS 2018 – 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 22–27 July 2018, Valencia, Spain, IEEE, 3370–3373, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8517412, 2018.
Smittarello, D., Smets, B., Barrière, J., Michellier, C., Oth, A.,
Shreve, T., Grandin, R., Theys, N., Brenot, H., Cayol, V., Allard, P.,
Caudron, C., Chevrel, O., Darchambeau, F., de Buyl, P., Delhaye, L., Derauw,
D., Ganci, G., Geirsson, H., Kamate Kaleghetso, E., Kambale Makundi, J.,
Kambale Nguomoja, I., Kasereka Mahinda, C., Kervyn, M., Kimanuka Ruriho, C.,
Le Mével, H., Molendijk, S., Namur, O., Poppe, S., Schmid, M., Subira,
J., Wauthier, C., Yalire, M., D'Oreye, N., Kervyn, F., and Syavulisembo
Muhindo, A.: Precursor-free eruption triggered by edifice rupture at
Nyiragongo volcano, Nature, 609, 83–88,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05047-8, 2022.
Sommestad, T., Karlzén, H., and Hallberg, J.: A meta-Analysis of studies
on protection motivation theory and information security behaviour, Int. J.
Inf. Secur. Priv., 9, 26–46, https://doi.org/10.4018/IJISP.2015010102, 2015.
Syavulisembo, A. M., Havenith, H.-B., Smets, B., d'Oreye, N., and Marti, J.: Preliminary assessment for the use of VORIS as a tool for rapid lava flow simulation at Goma Volcano Observatory, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2391–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2391-2015, 2015.
Syavulisembo, A. M., Kervyn, F., Moritz, L., Eléonore, W., and
Michellier, C.: Spatio-temporal location of population: Strengthening the
capacities of sudden hazards risk management in Goma, DRC, Int. J. Disast.
Risk Reduct., 66, 102565, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102565, 2021.
Tazieff, H.: An exceptional eruption: Mt. Niragongo, Jan. 10th, 1977, Bull.
Volcanol., 40, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02596999, 1977.
Tsang, S. W. R. and Lindsay, J. M.: Lava flow crises in inhabited areas part
I: Lessons learned and research gaps related to effusive, basaltic
eruptions, J. Appl. Volcanol., 9, 1–26,
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-020-00096-y, 2020.
Useche, S. A., Alonso, F., Montoro, L., and Tomas, J. M.: When age means
safety: Data to assess trends and differences on rule knowledge, risk
perception, aberrant and positive road behaviors, and traffic crashes of
cyclists, Data Br., 22, 627–634, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2018.12.066, 2019.
Van Praag, L., Lietaer, S., and Michellier, C.: A Qualitative Study on How
Perceptions of Environmental Changes are Linked to Migration in Morocco,
Senegal, and DR Congo, Hum. Ecol., 50, 347–361,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-021-00278-1, 2021.
Vinnell, L. J., Milfont, T. L., and McClure, J.: Why do people prepare for
natural hazards? Developing and testing a Theory of Planned Behaviour
approach, Curr. Res. Ecol. Soc. Psychol., 2, 100011,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cresp.2021.100011, 2021.
Vlassenroot, K. and Büscher, K.: The border city of Goma: zone of contestation or laboratory of change?, in: Urban international conference poverty in medium and small cities of developing countries, 26–28 October 2009, Brussels, Belgium, Koninklijke academie voor overzeese wetenschappen, Brussels, Belgium, 161–178, http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-2090440 (last access: 2 March 2023), 2011.
Vlassenroot, K. and Büscher, K.: Borderlands, Identity and Urban
Development: The Case of Goma (Democratic Republic of the Congo), Urban
Stud., 50, 3168–3184, https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098013487772, 2013.
Wachinger, G., Renn, O., Domènech, L., Jakobson, I., Kuhlicke, C.,
Lemkow, L., Pellizzoni, L., Piriz, A., Saurí, D., Scolobig, A.,
Steinführer, A., Supramaniam, M., Whittle, R., Bianchizza, C., Coates,
T., Marchi, B. De, Jakobson, I., Kuhlicke, C., Pellizzoni, L., Piriz, A.,
Saurí, D., Steinführer, A., and Supramaniam, M.: Risk Perception and Natural Hazards, CapHaz-Net WP3 Report, DIALOGIK Non-Profit Institute for Communication and Cooperative Research, Stuttgart, http://caphaz-net.org/outcomes-results/CapHaz-Net_WP3_Risk-Perception.pdf (last access: 23 January 2021), 2010.
Wachinger, G., Renn, O., Begg, C., and Kuhlicke, C.: The risk perception
paradox-implications for governance and communication of natural hazards,
Risk Anal., 33, 1049–1065, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01942.x, 2013.
Wauthier, C., Cayol, V., Kervyn, F., and D'Oreye, N.: Magma sources involved
in the 2002 Nyiragongo eruption, as inferred from an InSAR analysis, J.
Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 117, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008257, 2012.
Wisner, B.: “Build back better”? The challenge of Goma and beyond, Int. J.
Disast. Risk Reduct., 26, 101–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.027, 2017.
Wu, Z. and Zhong, S.: Individualism-Collectivism and Risk Perception Around
the World, SSRN., https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4129159, 2022.
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint