Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 03 Mar 2023
| 03 Mar 2023
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium
Geography Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Geology Department, Université de Goma, Campus Universitaire du Lac, Rue Eugène Serufuli 43, Quartier Katindo, Goma, North Kivu province, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Matthieu Kervyn
Geography Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
François Muhashy Habiyaremye
Geology Department, Université de Goma, Campus Universitaire du Lac, Rue Eugène Serufuli 43, Quartier Katindo, Goma, North Kivu province, Democratic Republic of the Congo
François Kervyn
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium
Caroline Michellier
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Clémence Idukunda, Sabine Henry, Emmanuel Twarabamenye, Florence De Longueville, and Caroline Michellier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2112, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines Rwanda's response to the deadly floods and landslides of May 2023. It finds that while disaster management systems exist, there are gaps in early warning and local involvement. Through document review, interviews, and site visits, the study identifies these gaps and suggests strengthening community-based action and learning from similar regions to improve future disaster response and recovery.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Daniel O'Hara, Liran Goren, Roos M. J. van Wees, Benjamin Campforts, Pablo Grosse, Pierre Lahitte, Gabor Kereszturi, and Matthieu Kervyn
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how volcanic edifices develop drainage basins remains unexplored in landscape evolution. Using digital evolution models of volcanoes with varying ages, we quantify the geometries of their edifices and associated drainage basins through time. We find that these metrics correlate with edifice age and are thus useful indicators of a volcano’s history. We then develop a generalized model for how volcano basins develop and compare our results to basin evolution in other settings.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Ante Ivčević, Hubert Mazurek, Lionel Siame, Raquel Bertoldo, Vania Statzu, Kamal Agharroud, Isabel Estrela Rego, Nibedita Mukherjee, and Olivier Bellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3749–3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The results from two Mediterranean case studies, in north Morocco and west Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions for risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Liesbet Jacobs, Olivier Dewitte, Jean Poesen, John Sekajugo, Adriano Nobile, Mauro Rossi, Wim Thiery, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 105–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-105-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
While country-specific, continental and global susceptibility maps are increasingly available, local and regional susceptibility studies remain rare in remote and data-poor settings. Here, we provide a landslide susceptibility assessment for the inhabited region of the Rwenzori Mountains. We find that higher spatial resolutions do not necessarily lead to better models and that models built for local case studies perform better than aggregated susceptibility assessments on the regional scale.
S. Mossoux, A. Delcamp, S. Poppe, C. Michellier, F. Canters, and M. Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 135–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-135-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations. However, what are the real factors influencing a disaster? Hazagora is a board game aimed at inducing a better understanding of geohazards and disasters and at generating discussions about risk management strategies. Based on analysis, Hazagora appears to be an effective, fun learning tool that positively enhances the player's insight into processes involved in disasters.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Brief communication: Bridging the data gap – a call to enhance the representation of global coastal flood protection
Disaster management following the great Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production
Review article: Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: A watershed level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Sectoral Vulnerability to Drought: Exploring the Role of Blue and Green Water Dependency in Mid and High-Latitudes
An evaluation on the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production
Modelling Flood Losses to Microbusinesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Flood relief logistics planning for coastal cities: a case study in Shanghai, China
Review article: Co-creating knowledge for drought impact assessment in socio-hydrology
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? – case study Berlin
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Bektaş Sarı
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
After the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50 000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects not only water availability but also agriculture, the economy, and communities. This study explores how public policies help reduce these impacts in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Using qualitative drought monitoring data, interviews, and policy analysis, we found that policies supporting local economies help lessen drought effects. However, most reported impacts are still related to water shortages, showing the need for broader strategies beyond water supply investment.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1963–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We are not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We assessed what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1811–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to counteract subsidence and its damage. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques which site-specific assessments should always follow.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal, and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners' needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. We provide examples to demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 Western European flood. By analysing flood-related topics on social media, we found that conversations varied depending on the location and impact of the flood, with in-disaster concerns emerging in severely affected upstream areas and post-disaster discussions in less affected regions. This shows the potential of social media for better disaster coordination along border crossing rivers.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Utilizing a survey including respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water dependency for drought vulnerability was explored. Differences were found in the perceived impact of vulnerability factors on drought risk in relation to water dependency (i.e., dependency on either soil moisture, or groundwater and surface water). The results highlight the importance of accounting for water dependency, and to clearly define the drought hazard, in drought vulnerability or risk assessments.
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates twelve drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI Framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and provides useful insights to develop next generation of drought guidelines.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct impact of extremes on crop yields and farm revenues. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of €781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Pujun Liang, Jie Yin, Dandan Wang, Yi Lu, Yuhan Yang, Dan Gao, and Jianfeng Mai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Addressing coastal city flood risks, this article examines relief logistics planning, employing a GIS-network analysis and optimization model to minimize costs and dissatisfaction. The investigation, grounded in Shanghai's emergency infrastructure and flood relief logistics framework, presents feasible distribution strategies. Meanwhile, the case study indicates that the supply levels of Emergency Flood Shelters and Emergency Reserve Warehouses vary in different coastal flood scenarios.
Silvia De Angeli, Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Maria Rusca, Giorgio Boni, Elena Bresci, and Luigi Piemontese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite droughts are deeply intertwined within sociohydrological systems, traditional top-down approaches often ignore those directly affected. By integrating insights from five research fields, we present a framework to guide the co-creation of knowledge for drought impact assessment. Emphasizing social dynamics and power imbalances, the framework guides a more inclusive approach to drought assessment and adaptation.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, and Angela Wendnagel-Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend stronger on inner-variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Cited articles
Arellano, S., Yalire, M., Galle, B., Bobrowski, N., Dingwell, A., Johansson,
M., and Norman, P.: Long-term monitoring of SO2 quiescent degassing from
Nyiragongo's lava lake, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 134, 866–873,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2016.07.002, 2017.
Bamberg, S., Masson, T., Brewitt, K., and Nemetschek, N.: Threat, coping and
flood prevention – A meta-analysis, J. Environ. Psychol., 54, 116–126,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2017.08.001, 2017.
Barberi, F., Davis, M. S., Isaia, R., Nave, R., and Ricci, T.: Volcanic risk
perception in the Vesuvius population, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172,
244–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.011, 2008.
Barclay, J., Haynes, K., Houghton, B., and Johnston, D.: Social Processes
and Volcanic Risk Reduction, in: The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, Elsevier,
1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385938-9.00069-9, 2015.
Barclay, J., Few, R., Armijos, M. T., Phillips, J. C., Pyle, D. M., Hicks,
A., Brown, S. K., and Robertson, R. E. A.: Livelihoods, Wellbeing and the
Risk to Life During Volcanic Eruptions, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 205,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00205, 2019.
Barrett, H. C.: Deciding what to observe: Thoughts for a post-WEIRD
generation, Evol. Hum. Behav., 41, 445–453,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2020.05.006, 2020.
Barrière, J., D'Oreye, N., Smets, B., Oth, A., Delhaye, L., Subira, J.,
Mashagiro, N., Derauw, D., Smittarello, D., Syavulisembo, A. M., and Kervyn,
F.: Intra-Crater Eruption Dynamics at Nyiragongo (D.R. Congo), 2002–2021, J.
Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 127, 2002–2021,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023858, 2022.
Bee, B. A.: Power, perception, and adaptation: Exploring gender and
social-environmental risk perception in northern Guanajuato, Mexico, Geoforum, 69, 71–80, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.12.006, 2016.
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B.: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters, 2nd edn., Routledge, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203714775, 2004.
Blake, D., Marlowe, J., and Johnston, D.: Get prepared: Discourse for the
privileged?, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 25, 283–288,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.012, 2017.
Botterill, L. and Mazur, N.: Risk and risk perception: A literature review, in: Kingston Act 2604, Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, ISBN 0642587531, 2004.
Brewer, N. T., Chapman, G. B., Gibbons, F. X., Gerrard, M., McCaul, K. D.,
and Weinstein, N. D.: Meta-analysis of the relationship between risk
perception and health behavior: The example of vaccination, Heal. Psychol.,
26, 136–145, https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.26.2.136, 2007.
Bronfman, N. C., Cisternas, P. C., López-Vázquez, E., and Cifuentes,
L. A.: Trust and risk perception of natural hazards: implications for risk
preparedness in Chile, Nat. Hazards, 81, 307–327,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2080-4, 2016.
Bronfman, N. C., Cisternas, P. C., Repetto, P. B., Castañeda, J. V., and
Guic, E.: Understanding the Relationship Between Direct Experience and Risk
Perception of Natural Hazards, Risk Anal., 40, 2057–2070,
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13526, 2020.
Brown, S. K., Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Vye-Brown, C., Barclay, J.,
Calder, E., Cottrell, E., Jolly, G., Komorowski, J. C., Mandeville, C.,
Newhall, C., Palma, J., Potter, S., and Valentine, G.: Global volcanic
hazard and risk, Cambridge University press, 81–172, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.004, 2015.
Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., Sparks, R. S. J., Odbert, H., and Auker, M.
R.: Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance
and victim classification, J. Appl. Volcanol., 6 15,
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-017-0067-4, 2017.
Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: A Review of Risk
Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior, Risk
Anal., 32, 1481–1495, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01783.x, 2012.
Büscher, K., Fellow, R., Vlassenroot, K., and Coordinator, C.:
Humanitarian presence and urban development: new opportunities and contrasts
in Goma, DRC, Disasters, 34, S256–S273,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01157.x, 2010.
Capra, L., Gavilanes-Ruiz, J. C., Bonasia, R., Saucedo-Giron, R., and
Sulpizio, R.: Re-assessing volcanic hazard zonation of Volcán de Colima,
México, Nat. Hazards, 76, 41–61, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1480-1, 2015.
Carlino, S., Somma, R., and Mayberry, G. C.: Volcanic risk perception of
young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic
areas and implications for emergency management, J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res., 172, 229–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.010, 2008.
Chauvin, B.: Individual Differences in the Judgment of Risks:
Sociodemographic Characteristics, Cultural Orientation, and Level of
Expertise, in: Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis Theory,
Models, and Applications, edited by: Raue, M., Streicher, E. L., and
Streicher, B., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 37–80,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92478-6_4, 2018.
Chester, D. K., Duncan, A. M., and Dibben, C. J. L.: The importance of
religion in shaping volcanic risk perception in Italy, with special
reference to Vesuvius and Etna, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172, 216–228,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.009, 2008.
De la Cruz-Reyna, S. and Tilling, R. I.: Scientific and public responses to
the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance
of an effective hazards-warning system, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 170,
121–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.09.002, 2008.
Delhaye, L. and Smets, B.: Time-Series in Structure-from-Motion
Photogrammetry: Testing Co-Registration Approaches for Topographic Change
Analysis, in: IGARSS 2021 – 2021 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote
Sensing Symposium, 11–16 July 2021, Brussels, Belgium, IGARSS, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS47720.2021.9553796, 2021.
Dieckmann, N. F., Gregory, R., Satterfield, T., Mayorga, M., and Slovic, P.:
Characterizing public perceptions of social and cultural impacts in policy
decisions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2020491118,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020491118, 2021.
Donovan, A.: Critical volcanology? Thinking holistically about risk and
uncertainty, Bull. Volcanol., 81, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-019-1279-8, 2019.
Donovan, A. and Oppenheimer, C.: Science, policy and place in volcanic
disasters: Insights from Montserrat, Environ. Sci. Policy, 39, 150–161,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.08.009, 2014.
Donovan, A., Eiser, J. R., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Expert opinion and
probabilistic volcanic risk assessment, J. Risk Res., 20, 693–710,
https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2015.1115425, 2017.
Donovan, A., Ayala, I. A., Eiser, J. R., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Risk
perception at a persistently active volcano: warnings and trust at
Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico, 2012–2014, Bull. Volcanol., 80,
2012–2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-018-1218-0, 2018.
Donovan, K.: Doing social volcanology: Exploring volcanic culture in
Indonesia, Area, 42, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2009.00899.x,
2010.
Douglas, M. and Wildavsky, A.: How Can We Know the Risks We Face? Why Risk
Selection Is a Social Process, Risk Anal., 2, 49–58,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01365.x, 1982.
Favalli, M., Chirico, G. D., Papale, P., Pareschi, M. T., Coltelli, M.,
Lucaya, N., and Boschi, E.: Computer simulations of lava flow paths in the
town of Goma, Nyiragongo volcano, Democratic Republic of Congo, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 111, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003527, 2006.
Favalli, M., Chirico, G. D., Papale, P., Pareschi, M. T., and Boschi, E.:
Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. 1. Model calibration and
hazard mapping, Bull. Volcanol., 71, 363–374,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0233-y, 2009.
Favereau, M., Robledo, L. F., and Bull, M. T.: Erratum: Analysis of risk
assessment factors of individuals in volcanic hazards: Review of the last
decade, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 365, 57–64,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.10.009, 2018.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S., and Combs, B.: How
safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes toward technological
risks and benefits, Policy Sci., 9, 127–152, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143739, 1978.
Floyd, D. L., Prentice-Dunn, S., and Rogers, R. W.: A Meta-Analysis or
research on Protection Motivation Theory, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 30,
407–429, 2000.
Gaillard, J. C. and Dibben, C. J. L.: Volcanic risk perception and beyond,
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172, 163–169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.015, 2007.
Gaillard, J. C. and Mercer, J.: From knowledge to action: Bridging gaps in
disaster risk reduction, Prog. Hum. Geogr., 37, 93–114,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132512446717, 2013.
Gaillard, J. C. and Texier, P.: Religions, natural hazards, and disasters:
An introduction, Religion, 40, 81–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.religion.2009.12.001, 2010.
Hall, T. E. and Slothower, M.: Cognitive Factors Affecting Homeowners'
Reactions to Defensible Space in the Oregon Coast Range, Soc. Nat. Resour.
An Int. J., 22, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920802392187, 2009.
Han, H.: Consumer behavior and environmental sustainability in tourism and
hospitality: a review of theories, concepts, and latest research, J.
Sustain. Tour., 29, 1021–1042, https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2021.1903019, 2021.
Harpe, S. E.: How to analyze Likert and other rating scale data, Curr.
Pharm. Teach. Learn., 7, 836–850, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cptl.2015.08.001, 2015.
Haynes, K., Barclay, J., and Pidgeon, N.: Whose reality counts? Factors
affecting the perception of volcanic risk, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172,
259–272, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.012, 2008.
Heitz, C., Spaeter, S., Auzet, A., and Glatron, S.: Local stakeholders'
perception of muddy flood risk and implications for management approaches:
A case study in Alsace (France), Land Use Policy, 26, 443–451,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.05.008, 2009.
Henrich, J., Heine, S. J., and Norenzayan, A.: The weirdest people in the
world?, Behav. Brain Sci., 33, 61–83, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X0999152X, 2010.
INS: Rapport démographique de la ville de Goma: année 2020, Goma, Institut National de Statistiques, https://www.ins-nordkivu.org/index.php, last access: 20 March 2021.
Kervyn, M., Barrette, F., Poppe, S., Smets, B., Syavulisembo, A. M., Makundi, J. K., Kahashi, Y. N., Mossoux, S., Kervyn, F., and Michellier, C.: Assessing lava flow susceptibility at neighbouring volcanoes: Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes, Journal of Applied Volcanology, submitted, 2022.
Khan, S. U., Qureshi, M. I., Rana, I. A., and Maqsoom, A.: An empirical
relationship between seismic risk perception and physical vulnerability: A
case study of Malakand, Pakistan, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 41, 101317,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101317, 2019.
Knoll, L. J., Leung, J. T., Foulkes, L., and Blakemore, S. J.: Age-related
differences in social influence on risk perception depend on the direction
of influence, J. Adolesc., 60, 53–63,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adolescence.2017.07.002, 2017.
Komorowski, J.-C., Tedesco, D., Kasereka, M., Allard, P., Papale, P.,
Vaselli, O., Durieux, J., Baxter, P., Halbwachs, M., Akumbe, M., Baluku, B.,
Briole, P., Ciraba, M., Dupin, J.-C., Etoy, O., Garcin, D., Hamaguchi, H.,
Houlié, N., Kavotha, K.S Lemarchand, A Lockwood, J., Lukaya, N.,
Mavonga, G., de Michele, M., Mpore, S., Mukambilwa, K Munyololo, F.,
Newhall, C., Ruch, J., Yalire, M., and Wafula, M.: The January 2002 flank
eruption of Nyiragongo volcano (Democratic Republic of Congo): chronology,
evidence for a tectonic rift trigger, and impact of lava flows on the city
of Goma, Acta Vulcanol., 14, 27–62, 2002.
Kothe, E. J., Ling, M., North, M., Klas, A., Mullan, B. A., and
Novoradovskaya, L.: Protection motivation theory and pro-environmental
behaviour: A systematic mapping review, Aust. J. Psychol., 71, 411–432,
https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12271, 2019.
Krejcie, R. V. and Morgan, D. W.: Determining Sample Size for Research
Activities, Educ. Psychol. Meas., 30, 607–610, 1970.
Lechowska, E.: Approaches in research on flood risk perception and their importance in flood risk management: a review, Nat. Hazards, 111, 2343–2378, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05140-7, 2022.
Lemée, C., Fleury-Bahi, G., and Navarro, O.: Impact of place identity,
self-efficacy and anxiety state on the relationship between coastal flooding
risk perception and the willingness to cope, Front. Psychol., 10, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00499, 2019.
Lindell, M. K. and Perry, R. W.: Household adjustment to earthquake hazard:
A Review of Research, Environ. Behav., 32, 461–501, 2000.
Lindell, M. K. and Perry, R. W.: The Protective Action Decision Model:
Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence, Risk Anal., 32, 616–632,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01647.x, 2012.
López-Fletes, C. A., van Loenhout, J. A. F., and Kervyn, M.: Risk
Perception and Implementation of Mitigation Measures By Populations Living
Near Volcán De Colima, Mexico, Hum. Ecol., 50, 435–446,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-021-00304-2, 2022.
Maddux, J. E. and Rogers, R. W.: Protection motivation and self-efficacy: A
revised theory of fear appeals and attitude change, J. Exp. Soc. Psychol.,
19, 469–479, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(83)90023-9, 1983.
Mafuko Nyandwi, B.: Risk perception among Goma population before the 2021 Nyiragongo eruption, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7638998, 2023.
Martin, B.: The sociology of the fluoridation controversy: A Reexamination,
Sociol. Q., 30, 59–76, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1989.tb01511.x, 1989.
Merlhiot, G., Mermillod, M., Le Pennec, J. L., Hidalgo, S., and Mondillon,
L.: Reducing uncertainty to promote appropriate decisions when facing
hazardous phenomena at an active volcano, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 48,
227–234, https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12507, 2018.
Mertens, K., Jacobs, L., Maes, J., Poesen, J., Kervyn, M., and Vranken, L.:
Disaster risk reduction among households exposed to landslide hazard, A
crucial role for self-efficacy?, Land Use Policy, 75, 77–91, 2018.
Miceli, R., Sotgiu, I., and Settanni, M.: Disaster preparedness and
perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy, J. Environ.
Psychol., 28, 164–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2007.10.006, 2008.
Michellier, C., Pigeon, P., Kervyn, F., and Wolff, E.: Contextualizing
vulnerability assessment: a support to geo-risk management in central
Africa, Nat. Hazards, 82, 27–42, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2295-z,
2016.
Michellier, C., Kervyn, M., Barette, F., Muhindo Syavulisembo, A., Kimanuka,
C., Kulimushi Mataboro, S., Hage, F., Wolff, E., and Kervyn, F.: Evaluating
population vulnerability to volcanic risk in a data scarcity context: The
case of Goma city, Virunga volcanic province (DRCongo), Int. J. Disast.
Risk Reduct., 45, 101460, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101460, 2020.
Mileti, D. S. and O'Brien, P. W.: Warnings during Disaster: Normalizing
Communicated Risk, Soc. Probl., 39, 40–57, https://doi.org/10.2307/3096912,
1992.
Milne, S., Sheeran, P., and Orbell, S.: Prediction and intervention in
health-related behavior: A meta-analytic review of protection motivation
theory, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 30, 106–143,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2000.tb02308.x, 2000.
Muhindo Syavulisembo, A.: La Variation Spatio-Temporelle de la Population et L'Analyse De L'Accessibilité à ses Ressources Vitales: Vers une meilleure gestion du risque volcanique à Goma, République démocratique du Congo, unpublished doctoral dissertation, Université libre de Bruxelles, Faculté des Sciences – I.G.E.A.T., Bruxelles, http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/297715 (last access: 24 July 2022), 2019.
Njome, M. S., Suh, C. E., Chuyong, G., and de Wit, M. J.: Volcanic risk
perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon,
West-Central Africa, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 58, 608–622,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2010.08.007, 2010.
Oldenburg, S.: Maisha ni kuvumiliya–patrimonialism, progress and the
ambiguities of waiting in Goma, DR Congo, Crit. African Stud., 12, 37–51,
https://doi.org/10.1080/21681392.2019.1697314, 2020.
Oth, A., Barrière, J., D'Oreye, N., Mavonga, G., Subira, J., Mashagiro,
N., Kadufu, B., Fiama, S., Celli, G., De Dieu Bigirande, J., Ntenge, A. J.,
Habonimana, L., Bakundukize, C., and Kervyn, F.: KivuSNet: The first dense
broadband seismic network for the Kivu Rift Region (Western Branch of East
African Rift), Seismol. Res. Lett., 88, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220160147, 2017.
Paton, D.: Disaster Resilient Communities: Developing and testing an
all-hazards theory, J. Integr. Disaster Risk Manag., 3, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.5595/idrim.2013.0050, 2013.
Paton, D., Johnston, D., Bebbington, M. S., Lai, C. D., and Houghton, B. F.:
Direct and vicarious experience of volcanic hazards: Implications for risk
perception and adjustment adoption, Aust. J. Emerg. Manag., 15, 58–63,
2000.
Paton, D., Smith, L., Daly, M., and Johnston, D.: Risk perception and
volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 172, 179–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.026, 2008.
Pech, L., Büscher, K., and Lakes, T.: Intraurban development in a city
under protracted armed conflict: Patterns and actors in Goma, DR Congo,
Polit. Geogr., 66, 98–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.08.006, 2018.
Perry, R. W. and Lindell, M. K.: Volcanic risk perception and adjustment in
a multi-hazard environment, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 172, 170–178,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.006, 2008.
Plattner, Th., Plapp, T., and Hebel, B.: Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 471–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-471-2006, 2006.
Poppe, S., Smets, B., Albino, F., Kervyn, F., and Kervyn, M.: A new
volcano-structural map of the Virunga Volcanic Province, D. R. Congo and
Rwanda, EGU General Assembly 2013, 7–12 April 2023, Vienna, Austria, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 15, EGU2013-7131, 2013.
Pouclet, A. and Bram, K.: Nyiragongo and Nyamuragira: a review of volcanic
activity in the Kivu rift, western branch of the East African Rift System, Bull. Volcanol., 83, 10, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-021-01435-6, 2021.
Quinn, T., Bousquet, F., and Guerbois, C.: Changing places: The role of
sense of place in perceptions of social, environmental and overdevelopment
risks, Glob. Environ. Chang., 57, 101930, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101930, 2019.
Rainear, A. M. and Christensen, J. L.: Protection Motivation Theory as an
Explanatory Framework for Proenvironmental Behavioral Intentions, Commun.
Res. Reports, 34, 239–248, https://doi.org/10.1080/08824096.2017.1286472, 2017.
Ricci, T., Barberi, F., Davis, M. S., Isaia, R., and Nave, R.: Volcanic risk
perception in the Campi Flegrei area, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 254,
118–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.01.002, 2013.
Rogers, R. W.: A Protection Motivation Theory of Fear Appeals and Attitude
Change1, J. Psychol., 91, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.1080/00223980.1975.9915803, 1975.
Schmid, M., Tietze, K., Halbwachs, M., Lorke, A., McGinnis, D. F., and
Wüest, A.: How hazardous is the gas accumulation in Lake Kivu? Arguments
for a risk assesment in light of the Nyiragongo volcano eruption of 2002,
Acta Vulcanol., 14/15, 115–122, 2002.
Siegrist, M., Gutscher, H., and Earle, T. C.: Perception of risk: The
influence of general trust, and general confidence, J. Risk Res., 8,
145–156, https://doi.org/10.1080/1366987032000105315, 2005.
Sim, T., Hung, L. S., Su, G. W., and Cui, K.: Interpersonal communication
sources and natural hazard risk perception: a case study of a rural Chinese
village, Nat. Hazards, 94, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3478-6, 2018.
Sjöberg, L.: Risk Perception is not what it seems: the Psychometric Paradigm Revisited (NEI-SE–437), edited by: Andersson, K., INIS Volume: 35, INIS Issue: 04, Reference Number: 35009763, Sweden, 2003.
Slovic, P.: Risk Perception, Risk Manag., 11, 15–16,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00559.x, 1991.
Slovic, P.: Perception of Risk, Science, 236, 280–285,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3563507, 2000.
Slovic, P. and Weber, E. U.: Perception of Risk Posed by Extreme Events, in: Regulation of Toxic Substances and Hazardous Waste, 2nd edn., edited by: Applegate, E., Gabba, S., Laitos, J. G., and Sachs, N. J., Foundation Press, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2293086 (last access: 6 May 2022), 2013.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S.: The Psychometric Study of
Risk Perception, Risk Eval. Manag., 1, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2103-3_1, 1986.
Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., and MacGregor, D. G.: Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: Some thoughts about affect, reason, risk and rationality, in: The feeling of risk, Routledge, 21–36, 2013.
Smets, B., Tedesco, D., Kervyn, F., Kies, A., Vaselli, O., and Yalire, M.
M.: Dry gas vents (“mazuku”) in Goma region (North-Kivu, Democratic
Republic of Congo): Formation and risk assessment, J. Afr. Earth Sci.,
58, 787–798, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2010.04.008, 2010.
Smets, B., Delvaux, D., Ross, K. A., Poppe, S., Kervyn, M., D'Oreye, N.,
Kervyn, F., Wauthier, C., Cayol, V., Smets, B., D'Oreye, N., and Kervyn, F.:
Magma pathways and their interactions inferred from InSAR and stress
modeling at Nyamulagira Volcano, D.R. Congo, 683, 15179–15202,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2016.06.022, 2015a.
Smets, B., Kervyn, M., d'Oreye, N., and Kervyn, F.: Spatio-temporal dynamics
of eruptions in a youthful extensional setting: Insights from Nyamulagira
Volcano (D.R. Congo), in the western branch of the East African Rift, Earth-Sci. Rev., 150, 305–328, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.08.008, 2015b.
Smets, B., Michellier, C., Syavulisembo, A. M., Munganea, G., d'Oreye, N., and Kervyn, F.: Very high-resolution imaging of the city of goma (North Kivu, DR Congo) using SFM-MVS photogrammetry, in: IGARSS 2018 – 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 22–27 July 2018, Valencia, Spain, IEEE, 3370–3373, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8517412, 2018.
Smittarello, D., Smets, B., Barrière, J., Michellier, C., Oth, A.,
Shreve, T., Grandin, R., Theys, N., Brenot, H., Cayol, V., Allard, P.,
Caudron, C., Chevrel, O., Darchambeau, F., de Buyl, P., Delhaye, L., Derauw,
D., Ganci, G., Geirsson, H., Kamate Kaleghetso, E., Kambale Makundi, J.,
Kambale Nguomoja, I., Kasereka Mahinda, C., Kervyn, M., Kimanuka Ruriho, C.,
Le Mével, H., Molendijk, S., Namur, O., Poppe, S., Schmid, M., Subira,
J., Wauthier, C., Yalire, M., D'Oreye, N., Kervyn, F., and Syavulisembo
Muhindo, A.: Precursor-free eruption triggered by edifice rupture at
Nyiragongo volcano, Nature, 609, 83–88,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05047-8, 2022.
Sommestad, T., Karlzén, H., and Hallberg, J.: A meta-Analysis of studies
on protection motivation theory and information security behaviour, Int. J.
Inf. Secur. Priv., 9, 26–46, https://doi.org/10.4018/IJISP.2015010102, 2015.
Syavulisembo, A. M., Havenith, H.-B., Smets, B., d'Oreye, N., and Marti, J.: Preliminary assessment for the use of VORIS as a tool for rapid lava flow simulation at Goma Volcano Observatory, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2391–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2391-2015, 2015.
Syavulisembo, A. M., Kervyn, F., Moritz, L., Eléonore, W., and
Michellier, C.: Spatio-temporal location of population: Strengthening the
capacities of sudden hazards risk management in Goma, DRC, Int. J. Disast.
Risk Reduct., 66, 102565, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102565, 2021.
Tazieff, H.: An exceptional eruption: Mt. Niragongo, Jan. 10th, 1977, Bull.
Volcanol., 40, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02596999, 1977.
Tsang, S. W. R. and Lindsay, J. M.: Lava flow crises in inhabited areas part
I: Lessons learned and research gaps related to effusive, basaltic
eruptions, J. Appl. Volcanol., 9, 1–26,
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-020-00096-y, 2020.
Useche, S. A., Alonso, F., Montoro, L., and Tomas, J. M.: When age means
safety: Data to assess trends and differences on rule knowledge, risk
perception, aberrant and positive road behaviors, and traffic crashes of
cyclists, Data Br., 22, 627–634, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2018.12.066, 2019.
Van Praag, L., Lietaer, S., and Michellier, C.: A Qualitative Study on How
Perceptions of Environmental Changes are Linked to Migration in Morocco,
Senegal, and DR Congo, Hum. Ecol., 50, 347–361,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-021-00278-1, 2021.
Vinnell, L. J., Milfont, T. L., and McClure, J.: Why do people prepare for
natural hazards? Developing and testing a Theory of Planned Behaviour
approach, Curr. Res. Ecol. Soc. Psychol., 2, 100011,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cresp.2021.100011, 2021.
Vlassenroot, K. and Büscher, K.: The border city of Goma: zone of contestation or laboratory of change?, in: Urban international conference poverty in medium and small cities of developing countries, 26–28 October 2009, Brussels, Belgium, Koninklijke academie voor overzeese wetenschappen, Brussels, Belgium, 161–178, http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-2090440 (last access: 2 March 2023), 2011.
Vlassenroot, K. and Büscher, K.: Borderlands, Identity and Urban
Development: The Case of Goma (Democratic Republic of the Congo), Urban
Stud., 50, 3168–3184, https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098013487772, 2013.
Wachinger, G., Renn, O., Domènech, L., Jakobson, I., Kuhlicke, C.,
Lemkow, L., Pellizzoni, L., Piriz, A., Saurí, D., Scolobig, A.,
Steinführer, A., Supramaniam, M., Whittle, R., Bianchizza, C., Coates,
T., Marchi, B. De, Jakobson, I., Kuhlicke, C., Pellizzoni, L., Piriz, A.,
Saurí, D., Steinführer, A., and Supramaniam, M.: Risk Perception and Natural Hazards, CapHaz-Net WP3 Report, DIALOGIK Non-Profit Institute for Communication and Cooperative Research, Stuttgart, http://caphaz-net.org/outcomes-results/CapHaz-Net_WP3_Risk-Perception.pdf (last access: 23 January 2021), 2010.
Wachinger, G., Renn, O., Begg, C., and Kuhlicke, C.: The risk perception
paradox-implications for governance and communication of natural hazards,
Risk Anal., 33, 1049–1065, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01942.x, 2013.
Wauthier, C., Cayol, V., Kervyn, F., and D'Oreye, N.: Magma sources involved
in the 2002 Nyiragongo eruption, as inferred from an InSAR analysis, J.
Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 117, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008257, 2012.
Wisner, B.: “Build back better”? The challenge of Goma and beyond, Int. J.
Disast. Risk Reduct., 26, 101–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.027, 2017.
Wu, Z. and Zhong, S.: Individualism-Collectivism and Risk Perception Around
the World, SSRN., https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4129159, 2022.
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint