Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 02 Feb 2023
| 02 Feb 2023
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development,
National Observatory of Athens, Athens, 15236, Greece
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Section of Geography and Climatology, Department of Geology
and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, 15784, Greece
Konstantinos V. Varotsos
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development,
National Observatory of Athens, Athens, 15236, Greece
Christos Giannakopoulos
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development,
National Observatory of Athens, Athens, 15236, Greece
Panagiotis P. Nastos
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Section of Geography and Climatology, Department of Geology
and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, 15784, Greece
Maria Hatzaki
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Section of Geography and Climatology, Department of Geology
and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, 15784, Greece
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Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire...
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