Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023
Research article
 | 
02 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 02 Feb 2023

Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece

Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki

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Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., Boschetti, L., Zubkova, M., and Kolden, C. A.: Global patterns of interannual climate–fire relationships, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 5164–5175, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14405, 2018. 
Alcasena, F. J., Ager, A. A., Bailey, J. D., Pineda, N., and Vega-García, C.: Towards a comprehensive wildfire management strategy for Mediterranean areas: Framework development and implementation in Catalonia, Spain, J. Environ. Manage., 231, 303–320, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.027, 2019. 
Bacciu, V., Hatzaki, M., Karali, A., Cauchy, A., Giannakopoulos, C., Spano, D., and Briche, E.: Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands' Blue Economy, Sustainability, 13, 10004, https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810004, 2021. 
Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Zavala, G., Urbieta, I. R., and Moreno, J. M.: Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 699–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-699-2012, 2012. 
Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Benali, A., Brands, S., Mota, B., and Moreno, J. M.: Global patterns in the sensitivity of burned area to fire-weather: Implications for climate change, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 214–215, 369–379, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.002, 2015. 
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As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
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