Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 24 Aug 2023
| 24 Aug 2023
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Stephen Cusack
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Stormwise Ltd, Luton, LU4 9DU, United Kingdom
Related authors
Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Warming seas have been driving greater hailstorm risk in Europe over the past few decades. Modern climate models indicate anthropogenic aerosols caused the observed cooling of seas from about 1900 to the 1970s, while the recent rapid warming is mostly explained by rising greenhouse gases. Current trends in anthropogenic forcing are likely to persist, suggesting seas will continue warming, and hailstorm risk over Europe will continue rising over the next couple of decades, at least.
Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Warming seas have been driving greater hailstorm risk in Europe over the past few decades. Modern climate models indicate anthropogenic aerosols caused the observed cooling of seas from about 1900 to the 1970s, while the recent rapid warming is mostly explained by rising greenhouse gases. Current trends in anthropogenic forcing are likely to persist, suggesting seas will continue warming, and hailstorm risk over Europe will continue rising over the next couple of decades, at least.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored the possibility of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Adding mixtures of 3 to 5 amendment types substantially increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion and increased microorganism abundance, while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Cited articles
Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., Viste, E., Drange, H., Furevik, T., Johnson, H.
L., and Keenlyside, N. S.: Skillful prediction of northern climate provided
by the ocean, Nat. Commun., 8, 15875, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15875,
2017.
Athanasiadis, P. J., Yeager, S., Kwon, Y.-O., Bellucci, A., Smith, D. W.,
and Tibaldi, S.: Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the
NAO, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 20,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6, 2020.
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and
persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather
Rev., 115, 1083–1126,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2,
1987.
Barredo, J. I.: No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010, 2010.
Bell, B., Hersbach, H., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Dahlgren, P., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Soci, C., Villaume, S., Bidlot, J. R., Haimberger, L., Woollen, J., Buontempo, C., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis: Preliminary extension
to 1950, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 4186–4227,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4174, 2021.
Bengtsson, L., M., Hagemann, S., and Hodges, K. I.: Can climate trends be
calculated from reanalysis data?, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D11111,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004536, 2004.
Brázdil, R., Dobrovolny, P., Stekl, J., Kotyza, O., Valasek, H., and
Jaroslav, J.: History of weather and climate in the Czech lands VI: Strong
winds, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic, 378 pp., ISBN 80-210-3547-1, 2004.
Browning, K. A.: The sting at the end of the tail: Damaging winds associated
with extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 375–399,
https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.143, 2004.
Büeler, D. and Pfahl, S.: Potential vorticity diagnostics to quantify
effects of latent heating in extratropical cyclones. Part II: application to
idealized climate change simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1885–1902,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0342.1, 2019.
Cassou, C., Kushnir, Y., Hawkins, E., Pirani, A., Kucharski, F., Kang,
I.-S., and Caltabiano, N.: Decadal climate variability and predictability:
Challenges and opportunities, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 479–490,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0286.1, 2018.
Catto, J. L., Ackerley, D., Booth, J. F., Champion, A. J., Colle, B. A., Pfahl, S.,
Pinto, J. G., Quinting, J. F., and Seiler, C.: The future of midlatitude cyclones,
Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 5, 407–420,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4, 2019.
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)
Columbia University: Gridded Population of the World, Version 4.11 (GPWv4):
Population Count, Revision 11, Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and
Applications Center (SEDAC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.7927/H4JW8BX5, 2018.
Chang, E. K.-M.: CMIP5 projected change in Northern Hemisphere winter
cyclones with associated extreme winds, J. Climate, 31, 6527–6542,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0899.1, 2018.
Christofides, S., Barlow, C., Michaelides, N., and Miranthis, C.: Storm
Rating in the Nineties, General Insurance Convention, Bournemouth, https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/documents/pdf/storm-rating-nineties.pdf (last access: 25 September 2021), 1992.
Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J., Tayler, P. C., Lee, S., Laliberte, F., Feldstein, S., Maslowski, W., Henderson, G., Stroeve, J., Coumou, D., Handorf, D., Semmler, T., Ballinger, T., Hell, M., Kretschmer, M., Vavrus, S., Wang, M., Wang, S., Wu, Y., Vihma, T., Bhatt, U., Ionita, M., Linderholm, H., Rigor, I., Routson, C., Singh, D., Wendisch, M., Smith, D., Screen, J., Yoon, J., Peings, Y., Chen, H., and Blackport, R.: Arctic change and
possible influence on mid-latitude climate and weather, US CLIVAR Report
2018-1, 41 pp., https://doi.org/10.5065/D6TH8KGW, 2018.
Cusack, S.: A 101-year record of windstorms in the Netherlands, Climatic
Change, 116, 693–704, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0527-0, 2013.
Cusack, S.: The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 901–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-901-2016, 2016.
Dawkins, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Lockwood, J. F., and Maisey, P. E.: The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1999–2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016, 2016.
Dawson, S., Smith, D. E., Jordan, J., and Dawson, A. G.: Late Holocene
coastal sand movements in the Outer Hebrides, N.W. Scotland, Mar. Geol.,
210, 281–306, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.013, 2004.
Deroche, M.-S., Choux, M., Codron, F., and Yiou, P.: Three variables are better than one: detection of european winter windstorms causing important damages, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 981–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-981-2014, 2014.
Eade, R., Smith, D., Scaife, A., Wallace, E., Dunstone, N., Hermanson, L.,
and Robinson, N.: Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions under-estimate
the predictability of the real world?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5620–5628,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061146, 2014.
ECMWF: IFS Documentation CY41R2 – Part IV: Physical Processes,
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/79697-ifs-documentation-cy41r2-part-iv-physical-processes (last access: 2 June 2022),
2016.
European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA): Opinion on
the supervision of the use of climate change risk scenarios in ORSA,
https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/publications/opinion-supervision-use-climate-change-risk-scenarios-orsa_en (last access: 15 October 2022), 2021.
Feser, F., Barcikowska, M., Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Weisse, R., and Xia,
L.: Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe – a review,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 350–382, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2364,
2015.
Fink, A. H., Brücher, T., Ermert, V., Krüger, A., and Pinto, J. G.: The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 405–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-405-2009, 2009.
Greatbatch, R. J., Gollan, G., Jung, T., and Kunz, T.: Factors influencing
Northern Hemisphere winter mean atmospheric circulation anomalies during the
period 1960/61 to 2001/02, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1970–1982,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1947, 2012.
Gregow, H., Laaksonen, A., and Alper, M. E.: Increasing large scale
windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests,
1951–2010, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 46397, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep46397, 2017.
Guha-Sapir, D., Below, R., and Hoyois, P.: EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA
International Disaster Database, https://www.emdat.be/ (last access: 15 January 2022), Université Catholique
de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, 2022.
Harvey, B. J., Cook, P., Shaffrey, L. C., and Schiemann, R.: The response of
the northern hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams to climate change in
the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125,
e2020JD032701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701, 2020.
Hawkins, E., Brohan, P., Burgess, S. N., Burt, S., Compo, G. P., Gray, S. L., Haigh, I. D., Hersbach, H., Kuijjer, K., Martínez-Alvarado, O., McColl, C., Schurer, A. P., Slivinski, L., and Williams, J.: Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023.
Hewson, T. D. and Neu, U.: Cyclones, windstorms and the IMILAST project,
Tellus A, 67, 27128, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27128, 2015.
Hu, D., Guan, Z., Guo, Y., Lu, C., and Jin, D.: Dynamical connection between
the stratospheric Arctic vortex and sea surface temperatures in the North
Atlantic, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6979–6993,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04971-2, 2019.
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: An Overview of
the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: The North Atlantic Oscillation: climatic
significance and environmental impact, edited by: Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y.,
Ottersen, G. and Visbeck, M., Geophysical Monograph Series, 134, AGU
(American Geophysical Union), Washington, DC, 1–35, https://doi.org/10.1029/134GM01,
2003.
Karremann, M. K., Pinto, J. G., von Bomhard, P. J., and Klawa, M.: On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2041–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, 2014.
Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L., and Roeckner,
E.: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector,
Nature, 453, 84–88, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06921, 2008.
Klawa, M. and Ulbrich, U.: A model for the estimation of storm losses and
the identification of severe winter storms in Germany. Nat. Hazard Earth
Sys., 3:725-732, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-725-2003, 2003.
Lang, A., Yang, S., and Kaas, E.: Sea ice thickness and recent Arctic
warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 409–418,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071274, 2017.
Laurila, T. K., Sinclair, V. A., and Gregow, H.: Climatology, variability,
and trends in near-surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe
during 1979–2018 based on ERA5, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 2253–2278,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6957, 2021.
Mailier, P. J., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A. T., and Hodges, K. I.:
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 134,
2224–2240, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3160.1, 2006.
Minola, L., Azorin-Molina, C., and Chen, D.: Homogenization and assessment of
observed near-surface wind speed trends across Sweden, 1956–2013, J.
Climate, 29, 7397–7415, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0636.1, 2016.
Munich Re: GeoRisks Research Department, Winter Storms in Europe (II)
Analysis of 1999 losses and loss potentials,
https://www.planat.ch/fileadmin/PLANAT/planat_pdf/alle_2012/2001-2005/Munich_Re_Group_2002_-_Winter_storms_in_Europe_II.pdf (last access: 14 April 2023), 2002.
Omrani, N. E., Keenlyside, N. S., Bader, J., and Manzini, E.: Stratosphere
key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions,
Clim. Dynam., 42, 649–663, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1860-3, 2014.
Peings Y. and Magnusdottir, G.: Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric
circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean,
Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 034018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034018, 2014.
Pielke Jr., R. A. and Landsea, C. W.: Normalized hurricane damages in the
United States: 1925–95, Weather Forecast., 13, 621–631,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0621:NHDITU>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Prahl, B. F., Rybski, D., Burghoff, O., and Kropp, J. P.: Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, 2015.
Priestley, M. D. K., Dacre, H. F., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., and Pinto, J. G.: The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high-resolution global climate model data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018.
RMS: The Great Storm of 1987: 20 Year Retrospective, Risk Management
Solutions Inc. Special Report, https://web.archive.org/web/20091122171910/https://www.rms.com/Publications/Great_Storm_of_1987.pdf
(last access: 14 April 2023),
2007.
Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E., and Youngman, B. D.: The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014.
Safaei Pirooz, A. A. and Flay, R. G. J.: Response characteristics of
anemometers used in New Zealand, in: The 19th Australasian Wind Engineering
Society Workshop, 4–6 April, Torquay, Victoria, https://www.awes.org/archives/workshop-proceedings/awes-19/ (last access: 15 April 2023), 2018.
Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Vallis, G. K., and Folland, C. K.: A
stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface
climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18715,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023226, 2005.
Shaw, T. A., Baldwin, M., Barnes, E. A., Caballero, R., Garfinkel, C. I.,
Hwang, Y.-T., Li, C., O'Gorman, P. A., Rivière, G., Simpson, I. R., and
Voigt, A.: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate
change, Nat. Geosci., 9, 656–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2783, 2016.
Sloan, C. and Clark, M.: A comparison of three Met Office wind observing
systems, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 13, 283–288, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.396,
2012.
Smith, A., Lott, N., and Vose, R.: The integrated surface database: Recent
developments and partnerships, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 704–708,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3015.1, 2011.
Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Eade, R., Athanasiadis, P., Bellucci, A., Bethke, I., Bilbao, R., Borchert, L. F., Caron, L.-P., Counillon, F., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dunstone, N. J., Estella-Perez, V., Flavoni, S., Hermanson, L., Keenlyside, N., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mignot, J., Mochizuki, T., Modali, K., Monerie, P.-A., Müller, W. A., Nicolí, D., Ortega, P., Pankatz, K., Pohlmann, H., Robson, J., Ruggieri, P., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Swingedouw, D., Wang, Y., Wild, S., Yeager, S., Yang, X., and Zhang, L.: North Atlantic climate far
more predictable than models imply, Nature, 583, 796–800,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0, 2020.
Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Andrews, M. B., Ayres, H., Clark, A., Chripko, S., Deser, C., Dunstone, N. J., García-Serrano, J., Gastineau, G., Graff, L. S., Hardiman, S. C., He, B., Hermanson, L., Jung, T., Knight, J., Levine, X., Magnusdottir, G., Manzini, E., Matei, D., Mori, M., Msadek, R., Ortega, P., Peings, Y., Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Seabrook, M., Semmler, T., Sigmond, M., Streffing, J., Sun, L., and Walsh, A.: Robust but weak winter
atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, Nat.
Commun., 13, 727, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y, 2022.
Smits, A., Klein Tank, A. M. G., and Können, G. P.: Trends in Storminess
over the Netherlands, 1962–2002, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1331–1344,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1195, 2005.
Stucki, P., Brönnimann, S., Martius, O., Welker, C., Imhof, M., von Wattenwyl, N., and Philipp, N.: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2867–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2867-2014, 2014.
Swingedouw, D., Ortega, P., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E., Masson-Delmotte, V.,
Butler, P. G., Khodri, M., and Séférian, R.: Bidecadal North
Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic
eruptions, Nat. Commun., 6, 6545, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7545, 2015.
Swiss Re Sigma: No 1/2002: Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in
2001: man-made losses take on a new dimension, Tech. Rep., Swiss Reinsurance
Company, https://www.eird.org/esp/cdcapra/pdf/eng/doc14399/doc14399.pdf
(last access: 5 April 2023),
2002.
Swiss Re Sigma: No 1/2008: Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in
2007: high losses in Europe. Tech. rep., Swiss Reinsurance Company, https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/sigma-2008-01.html
(last access: 5 April 2023),
2008.
Thomas, C. M. and Schultz, D.M.: Global climatologies of fronts, airmass
boundaries, and airstream boundaries: Why the definition of “front”
matters, Mon. Weather. Rev., 147, 691–717,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0289.1, 2019.
Thorne, P. W. and Vose, R. S.: Reanalyses suitable for characterizing
long-term trends, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 353–361,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2858.1, 2010.
WASA Group: Changing waves and storms in the northeast Atlantic?, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 79, 741–760,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0741:CWASIT>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Wohland, J., Omrani, N., Witthaut, D., and Keenlyside, N. S.: Inconsistent
wind speed trends in current twentieth century reanalyses, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 1931–1940,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd030083, 2019.
Woollings, T., Franzke, C., Hodson, D., Dong, B., Barnes, E., Raible, C. C.,
and Pinto, J.: Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability,
Clim. Dynam., 45, 539–556,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2237-y, 2015.
Zhang, R.: Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice
extent, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 4570–4575,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1422296112, 2015.
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint