Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Research article
 | 
21 Feb 2022
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2022

Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification

Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne

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Latest update: 25 Sep 2023
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Short summary
There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
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