Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
Research article
21 Feb 2022
Research article | 21 Feb 2022

Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification

Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne

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Latest update: 07 Dec 2022
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Short summary
There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
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