Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| Highlight paper
| 
07 Feb 2022
Review article | Highlight paper |
| 07 Feb 2022
| 07 Feb 2022
A geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securities
Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen,
6708PB, The Netherlands
Lieke A. Melsen
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen
University, Wageningen, 6708PB, The Netherlands
David W. Walker
Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen,
6708PB, The Netherlands
Pieter R. van Oel
Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen,
6708PB, The Netherlands
Related authors
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Art Dewulf, Alexandre C. Costa, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, and Pieter R. van Oel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4217–4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
People induce and modify droughts. However, we do not know exactly how relevant human and natural processes interact nor how to evaluate the co-evolution of people and water. Prospect theory can help us to explain the emergence of drought impacts leading to failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. Our approach helps to explain socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects, and can contribute to integrated drought management considering the local context.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Janneke O. E. Remmers, Rozemarijn ter Horst, Ehsan Nabavi, Ulrike Proske, Adriaan J. Teuling, Jeroen Vos, and Lieke A. Melsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-673, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In hydrological modelling, a notion exists that a model is a neutral tool. However, this notion has several, possibly harmful, consequences. In critical social sciences, this non-neutrality in methods and results is an established topic of debate. We propose that in order to deal with it in hydrological modelling, the hydrological modelling network can learn from, and with, critical social sciences. The main lesson, from our perspective, is that responsible modelling is a shared responsibility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, Gert Jan Hofstede, Meine van Noordwijk, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3495–3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study explored the role of serious gaming in strengthening stakeholder engagement in addressing human–water challenges. The gaming approach guided community discussions toward implementable decisions. The results showed increased active participation, knowledge gain, and use of plural pronouns. We observed decreased individual interests and conflicts among game participants. The study presents important implications for creating a collective basis for water resources management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Art Dewulf, Alexandre C. Costa, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, and Pieter R. van Oel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4217–4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
People induce and modify droughts. However, we do not know exactly how relevant human and natural processes interact nor how to evaluate the co-evolution of people and water. Prospect theory can help us to explain the emergence of drought impacts leading to failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. Our approach helps to explain socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects, and can contribute to integrated drought management considering the local context.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter T. La Follette, Adriaan J. Teuling, Nans Addor, Martyn Clark, Koen Jansen, and Lieke A. Melsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5425–5446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models are useful tools that allow us to predict distributions and movement of water. A variety of numerical methods are used by these models. We demonstrate which numerical methods yield large errors when subject to extreme precipitation. As the climate is changing such that extreme precipitation is more common, we find that some numerical methods are better suited for use in hydrological models. Also, we find that many current hydrological models use relatively inaccurate methods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Higher temperatures influence both evaporation and snow processes. These two processes have a large effect on discharge but have distinct roles during different seasons. In this study, we study how higher temperatures affect the discharge via changed evaporation and snow dynamics. Higher temperatures lead to enhanced evaporation but increased melt from glaciers, overall lowering the discharge. During the snowmelt season, discharge was reduced further due to the earlier depletion of snow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lieke Anna Melsen and Björn Guse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Certain hydrological processes become more or less relevant when the climate changes. This should also be visible in the models that are used for long-term predictions of river flow as a consequence of climate change. We investigated this using three different models. The change in relevance should be reflected in how the parameters of the models are determined. In the different models, different processes become more relevant in the future: they disagree with each other.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
current climatewas created. The hydrological model consisted of several building blocks that we could adapt. In this way, we could investigate the effect of these hydrological building blocks on high- and low-flow risk in four different climate zones with return periods of up to 500 years.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, James W. Kirchner, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6093–6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6093-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new distributed hydrological model: the distributed simple dynamical systems (dS2) model. The model is built with a focus on computational efficiency and is therefore able to simulate basins at high spatial and temporal resolution at a low computational cost. Despite the simplicity of the model concept, it is able to correctly simulate discharge in both small and mesoscale basins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Caspar T. J. Roebroek, Lieke A. Melsen, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Ying Fan, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4625–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4625-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4625-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation is a principal component in the Earth system models that are used for weather, climate and other environmental predictions. Water is one of the main drivers of vegetation; however, the global distribution of how water influences vegetation is not well understood. This study looks at spatial patterns of photosynthesis and water sources (rain and groundwater) to obtain a first understanding of water access and limitations for the growth of global forests (proxy for natural vegetation).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lieke A. Melsen, Nans Addor, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Martyn P. Clark, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term hydrological predictions are important for water management planning, but are also prone to uncertainty. This study investigates three sources of uncertainty for long-term hydrological predictions in the US: climate models, hydrological models, and hydrological model parameters. Mapping the results revealed spatial patterns in the three sources of uncertainty: different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lieke Melsen, Adriaan Teuling, Paul Torfs, Massimiliano Zappa, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn Clark, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigated the sensitivity of a large-domain hydrological model for spatial and temporal resolution. We evaluated the results on a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland. Our results show that the model was hardly sensitive for the spatial resolution, which implies that spatial variability is likely underestimated. Our results provide a motivation to improve the representation of spatial variability in hydrological models in order to increase their credibility on a smaller scale.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), the study presents an assessment of the occurrence and diversity of drought impacts across Europe. A unique research database has collected close to 5000 textual drought impact reports from 33 European countries. Consistently, reported impacts have been dominated in number by agriculture and water supply, but were very diverse across other sectors. Data and assessment may help drought policy planning at the international level.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lieke A. Melsen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Remko Uijlenhoet, Naoki Mizukami, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1069-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1069-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting applications of a land surface model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: A watershed level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Disaster Management Following the Great Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
Brief Communication: Bridging the data gap – enhancing the representation of global coastal flood protection
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
An evaluation on the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Modelling Flood Losses to Microbusinesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? – case study Berlin
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Sensitive infrastructures and people with disabilities – Key issues when strengthening resilience in reconstruction
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal, and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners' needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 Western European flood. By analysing flood-related topics on social media, we found that conversations varied depending on the location and impact of the flood, with in-disaster concerns emerging in severely affected upstream areas and post-disaster discussions in less affected regions. This shows the potential of social media for better disaster coordination along border crossing rivers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bektaş Sari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the earthquake, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50,000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to contrast subsidence and its damages. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques, to which site-specific assessment should always follow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection is limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTPROS-EU, which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates twelve drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI Framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and provides useful insights to develop next generation of drought guidelines.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct impact of extremes on crop yields and farm revenues. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of €781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, and Angela Wendnagel-Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend stronger on inner-variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on – therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g. to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Addor, N. and Melsen, L. A.: Legacy, Rather Than Adequacy, Drives the
Selection of Hydrological Models, Water Resour. Res., 55, 378–390,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022958, 2019.
Aria, M. and Cuccurullo, C.: bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive
science mapping analysis, J. Informetr., 11, 959–975, 2017.
Bachmair, S., Stahl, K., Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Acreman, M., Svoboda,
M., Knutson, C., Smith, K. H., Wall, N., Fuchs, B., Crossman, N. D., and
Overton, I. C.: Drought indicators revisited: the need for a wider
consideration of environment and society, WIRES Water, 3, 516–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1154, 2016.
Basu, S., Ramegowda, V., Kumar, A., and Pereira, A.: Plant adaptation to
drought stress, F1000Res, 5, F1000 Faculty Rev-1554,
https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.7678.1, 2016.
Belesova, K., Agabiirwe, C. N., Zou, M., Phalkey, R., and Wilkinson, P.:
Drought exposure as a risk factor for child undernutrition in low-and
middle-income countries: A systematic review and assessment of empirical
evidence, Environ. Int., 131, 104973, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.104973, 2019.
Bezuidenhout, L. and Chakauya, E.: Hidden concerns of sharing research data
by low/middle-income country scientists, Global Bioethics, 29, 39–54,
https://doi.org/10.1080/11287462.2018.1441780, 2018.
Bezuidenhout, L. M., Leonelli, S., Kelly, A. H., and Rappert, B.: Beyond the
digital divide: Towards a situated approach to open data, Sci. Publ. Policy, 44, 464–475, https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scw036, 2017.
Louise M. Bezuidenhout, Sabina Leonelli, Ann H. Kelly, Brian Rappert, Beyond the digital divide: Towards a situated approach to open data, Science and Public Policy, Volume 44, Issue 4, August 2017, Pages
Blauhut, V., Gudmundsson, L., and Stahl, K.: Towards pan-European drought
risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought
impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014008,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008, 2015.
Blauhut, V., Stahl, K., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., De Stefano, L., and Vogt, J.: Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, 2016.
Bliss, K. E. and Bowe, K. F.: Bridging Knowledge Gaps in Water Management:
Integrating Approaches to Food, Water, Energy, and the Environment, Center
for Strategic and International Studies, ISBN 978-0-89206-646-9, 2011.
Bradley, D. J. and Bartram, J. K.: Domestic water and sanitation as water
security: monitoring, concepts and strategy, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371,
20120420, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0420, 2013.
Brazilian Drought Monitor: https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/mapa?mes=3&ano=2021, last access: 26 April 2021.
Conway, D., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S., Tebboth, M. G. L., Adger, W. N.,
Ahmad, B., Biemans, H., Crick, F., Lutz, A. F., De Campos, R. S., Said, M.,
Singh, C., Zaroug, M. A. H., Ludi, E., New, M., and Wester, P.: The need for
bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive
regions, Nature Clim. Change, 9, 503–511, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0, 2019.
Cook, C. and Bakker, K.: Water security: Debating an emerging paradigm,
Global Environ. Chang., 22, 94–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.011, 2012.
Corral, P., Irwin, A., Krishnan, N., Mahler, D. G., and Vishwanath, T.:
Fragility and Conflict: On the Front Lines of the Fight against Poverty, The
World Bank, Washington, DC, https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1540-9, 2020.
de Brito, M. M., Kuhlicke, C., and Marx, A.: Near-real-time drought impact
assessment: a text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany,
Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 1040a1049, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca, 2020.
Economist Intelligence Unit: Global food security index 2015: An annual
measure of the state of global food security, Economist Intelligence Unit,
2015.
Emergency Events Database: http://www.emdat.be/,
last access: 31 March 2021.
FAO: The state of food insecurity in the World 2010, Addressing food
insecurity in protracted crises, WFP, FAO, J. Rural Stud., 29,
101–112, 2010.
FAO: Good food security governance: the crucial premise to the twin-track
approach, Background paper, available at: https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/righttofood/documents/other_documents/2011_good_food_security_gov/FoodSecurityGovernanceWorkshop_backgroundpaper.pdf (last access: 13 October 2021), 2011
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO.: The state of food security and nutrition
in the world 2019: safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns, FAO, Rome, Italy, ISBN 978-92-5-131570-5, 2019.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): Country fact sheet on food and agriculture policy trends:
available at: http://www.fao.org/in-action/fapda/publications/country-fact-sheets/en/,
last access: 26 April 2021.
Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S. I., and Brklacich, M.: Climate change and food
security, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 360, 2139–2148,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1745, 2005.
Guha-Sapir, D., Vos, F., and Below, R.: Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2010: The Numbers and Trends, Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
(CRED), Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, 42 pp., 2011.
Harrington, L. J. and Otto, F. E. L.: Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves, Nat. Clim. Chang., 10, 796–798, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0851-8, 2020.
Hasan, E., Tarhule, A., Zume, J. T., and Kirstetter, P.-E.: +50 Years of
Terrestrial Hydroclimatic Variability in Africa's Transboundary Waters,
Sci. Rep., 9, 12327, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48813-x, 2019.
Hatfield, J. L. and Prueger, J. H.: Temperature extremes: Effect on plant
growth and development, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10, 4–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001, 2015.
Hill, R. S.: Origins of the southeastern Australian vegetation,
Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 359, 1537–1549, 2004.
Hoekstra, A. Y., Buurman, J., and van Ginkel, K. C. H.: Urban water
security: A review, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 053002,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaba52, 2018.
Jepson, W., Budds, J., Eichelberger, L., Harris, L., Norman, E., O'Reilly,
K., Pearson, A., Shah, S., Shinn, J., and Staddon, C.: Advancing human
capabilities for water security: A relational approach, Water Security, 1,
46–52, 2017.
Kchouk, S., Melsen, L. A., and van Oel, P. R.: Data underlying the publication : “A review of drought indices: predominance of drivers over impacts and the importance of local context”, Water Resources Management Group [data set] [code], edited by: Wageningen University and Research, https://doi.org/10.4121/14452845.v2, 2021.
Kim, S., Shao, W., and Kam, J.: Spatiotemporal patterns of US drought
awareness, Palgrave Communications, 5, 107, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0317-7, 2019.
Knutson, C., Hayes, M., and Phillips, T.: How to reduce drought risk, Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications, 168, available at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub/168 (last access: 21 May 2021), 1998.
Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The impracticality of a universal drought definition,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 607–611, 2014.
Logar, I. and Van den Bergh, J.: Methods to assess costs of drought damages
and policies for drought mitigation and adaptation: review and
recommendations, Water Resour. Manage., 27, 1707–1720,
10.1007/s11269-012-0119-9, 2011.
Ludwig, F., van Slobbe, E., and Cofino, W.: Climate change adaptation and
Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector, J.
Hydrol., 518, 235–242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.010, 2014.
Makurira, H., Savenije, H. H. G., Uhlenbrook, S., Rockström, J., and
Senzanje, A.: The effect of system innovations on water productivity in
subsistence rainfed agricultural systems in semi-arid Tanzania, Agr. Water Manage., 98, 1696–1703, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2011.05.003, 2011.
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, 2010.
Molden, D.: Water for food water for life: A Comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture, Water for Food Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, Taylor and Francis, Green Open Access, 1–645, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849773799, ISBN 978-184977379-9, 2013.
Montanari, A., Young, G., Savenije, H. H. G., Hughes, D., Wagener, T., Ren,
L. L., Koutsoyiannis, D., Cudennec, C., Toth, E., Grimaldi, S., Blöschl,
G., Sivapalan, M., Beven, K., Gupta, H., Hipsey, M., Schaefli, B., Arheimer,
B., Boegh, E., Schymanski, S. J., Di Baldassarre, G., Yu, B., Hubert, P.,
Huang, Y., Schumann, A., Post, D. A., Srinivasan, V., Harman, C., Thompson,
S., Rogger, M., Viglione, A., McMillan, H., Characklis, G., Pang, Z., and
Belyaev, V.: “Panta Rhei–Everything Flows”: Change in hydrology and
society–The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013–2022, Hydrolog. Sci.
J., 58, 1256–1275, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.809088, 2013.
Morris, K. S. and Bucini, G.: California's drought as opportunity:
Redesigning U.S. agriculture for a changing climate, Elementa: Science of
the Anthropocene, 4, 000142, https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000142, 2016.
Niang, I., Ruppel, O. C., Abdrabo, M. A., Essel, C., Lennard, C., Padgham,
J., Urquhart, P., and Descheemaeker, K. K. E.: Africa, in: Climate Change
2014 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part B: Regional Aspects,
Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Volume 2,
Regional Aspects, edited by: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, 1st edition, Cambridge, 1199–1266, ISBN 9781107683860, 2014.
Odugbesan, J. A. and Rjoub, H.: Relationship among HIV/AIDS Prevalence,
Human Capital, Good Governance, and Sustainable Development: Empirical
Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, Sustainability, 11, 1348, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11051348, 2019.
Princeton Flood and Drought Monitors: http://stream.princeton.edu/, last access: 26 April 2021.
Salimi, H., Asadi, E., and Darbandi, S.: Meteorological and hydrological
drought monitoring using several drought indices, Applied Water Science, 11,
11, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-020-01345-6, 2021.
Santos Pereira, L., Cordery, I., and Iacovides, I.: Water Scarcity Concepts,
in: Coping with Water Scarcity: Addressing the Challenges, Springer
Netherlands, Dordrecht, 7–24, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9579-5, ISBN 978-1-4020-9578-8, 2009.
Savelli, E., Rusca, M., Cloke, H., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Don't blame the
rain: Social power and the 2015–2017 drought in Cape Town, J. Hydrol., 594, 125953, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125953, 2021.
Scopus: Access and use Support Center: https://service.elsevier.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/15100/supporthub/scopus/, last access: 20 April, 2021.
Seneviratne, S. I.: Climate science: Historical drought trends revisited,
Nature, 491, 338–339, 2012.
Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W.,
Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M., and Reinhardt, J.: Climate change impacts in
Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions,
Reg. Environ. Change, 17, 1585–1600, 2017.
Stahl, K., Kohn, I., Blauhut, V., Urquijo, J., De Stefano, L., Acácio, V., Dias, S., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Kampragou, E., Van Loon, A. F., Barker, L. J., Melsen, L. A., Bifulco, C., Musolino, D., de Carli, A., Massarutto, A., Assimacopoulos, D., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016.
Svoboda, M. and Fuchs, B.: Handbook of drought indicators and indices.
Integrated drought management programme (IDMP), integrated drought
management tools and guidelines series 2, World Meteorological Organization
and Global Water Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland, 52, ISBN 978-92-63-11173-9, 2016.
Transparency Int'l: Rotten Deals – How Corruption Spoils Our Food, available at: https://www.transparency.org/en/blog/rotten-deals-how-corruption-spoils-our-food (last access: 2 February 2022), edited by: Transparency International, 16 October 2019.
Transparency International: Corruption Perceptions Index 2020, available at: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020 (last access: 2 February 2022), ISBN 978-3-96076-157-0, 2021.
U.S. Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (last access: 1 February 2022), 2021.
UN Secretariat General: United Nations Convention to Combat Drought and
Desertification in Countries Experiencing Serious Droughts and/or
Desertification, Particularly in Africa, Paris, available at: https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVII-10&chapter=27&clang=_en (last access: 21 May 2021), 1994.
UN Water: What is Water Security? Infographic: available at: https://www.unwater.org/publications/water-security-infographic/ (last access:
4 March 2021), 2013.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), ISBN 978-92-1-148316-1, 2019.
Van Lanen, H., Vogt, J., Andreu, J., Carrão, H., De Stefano, L., Dutra,
E., Feyen, L., Forzieri, G., Hayes, M., and Iglesias, A.: Climatological
risk: droughts, Science for disaster risk management, Publications Office of the European Union, ISBN 978-92-79-606678-6, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.2788/688605, 2017.
Van Loon, A. F., Gleeson, T., Clark, J., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Stahl, K.,
Hannaford, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teuling, A. J., Tallaksen, L. M.,
Uijlenhoet, R., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B.,
Wagener, T., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought
in the Anthropocene, Nat. Geosci., 9, 89–91, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2646, 2016a.
Van Loon, A. F., Stahl, K., Di Baldassarre, G., Clark, J., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., Gleeson, T., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Tallaksen, L. M., Hannaford, J., Uijlenhoet, R., Teuling, A. J., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B., Wagener, T., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016b.
Viglione, A., Borga, M., Balabanis, P., and Blöschl, G.: Barriers to the
exchange of hydrometeorological data in Europe: Results from a survey and
implications for data policy, J. Hydrol., 394, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.023, 2010.
Vogt, J. V., Naumann, G., Masante, D., Spinoni, J., Cammalleri, C., Erian,
W., Pischke, F., Pulwarty, R., and Barbosa, P.: Drought Risk Assessment and
Management, Publications Office of the European Union, ISBN 978-92-79-97469-4, available at: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113937 (last access: 2 February 2022), 2018.
Vollset, S. E., Goren, E., Yuan, C.-W., Cao, J., Smith, A. E., Hsiao, T.,
Bisignano, C., Azhar, G. S., Castro, E., and Chalek, J.: Fertility,
mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and
territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden
of Disease Study, The Lancet, 396, 1285-1306, 2020.
Walker, D., Forsythe, N., Parkin, G., and Gowing, J.: Filling the
observational void: Scientific value and quantitative validation of
hydrometeorological data from a community-based monitoring programme,
J. Hydrol., 538, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.062, 2016.
Walker, D. W., Cavalcante, L., Kchouk, S., Neto, G. R., Dewulf, A., Gondim, R. S., Passos Rodrigues Martins, E. S., Melsen, L. A., de Assis de Souza Filho, F., Vergopolan, N., and van Oel, P. R.: Drought diagnosis: what the medical sciences can teach us, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002456, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002456, 2022.
Wani, S. P., Rockström, J., and Oweis, T. Y.: Rainfed agriculture:
unlocking the potential, CAB International, Wallingford, UK, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479709990664, 2009.
Warren, R. F., Wilby, R. L., Brown, K., Watkiss, P., Betts, R. A., Murphy,
J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: Advancing national climate change risk assessment to
deliver national adaptation plans, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 376, 20170295, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0295, 2018.
Wilhite, D. A. and Glantz, M. H.: Understanding: the drought phenomenon:
the role of definitions, Water Int., 10, 111–120, 1985.
Wilhite, D. A.: Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions, in: Drought: A Global Assessment, Vol. I, edited by: Donald, A. W., chap. 1, pp. 3–18, London, Routledge, 2000.
Wilhite, D. A., Svoboda, M. D., and Hayes, M. J.: Understanding the complex
impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness,
Water Resour. Manage., 21, 763–774, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5, 2007.
Willis, R. M., Stewart, R. A., Panuwatwanich, K., Jones, S., and Kyriakides,
A.: Alarming visual display monitors affecting shower end use water and
energy conservation in Australian residential households, Resour. Conserv. Recy., 54, 1117–1127, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2010.03.004, 2010.
World Meteorological Organization: Standardized Precipitation Index User
Guide (Svoboda, M., Hayes, M., and Wood, D.), WMO-No. 1090, Geneva, ISBN 978-92-63-11090-9, 2012.
World Bank: Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?end=2019&name_desc=true&start=1960&type=shaded&view=map&year=2016 (last access: 12 February 2021), 2016.
World Bank: Assessment of the state of hydrological services in developing
countries, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World
Bank, Washington, DC, available at: https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/state-of-hydrological-services_web.pdf (last access: 4 March 2021), 2018.
World Bank: Population growth (annual %) – World, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=1W&name_desc=false&view=map (last access: 4 March 2021), 2019.
Wu, H., Svoboda, M. D., Hayes, M. J., Wilhite, D. A., and Wen, F.:
Appropriate application of the standardized precipitation index in arid
locations and dry seasons, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 65–79,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1371, 2007.
Zargar, A., Sadiq, R., Naser, B., and Khan, F. I.: A review of drought
indices, Environ. Rev., 19, 333–349, https://doi.org/10.1139/a11-013, 2011.
Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint