Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Invited perspectives
| Highlight paper
| 
24 Aug 2022
Invited perspectives | Highlight paper |
| 24 Aug 2022
| 24 Aug 2022
Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals
Robert Šakić Trogrlić
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, WC2B 4BG, UK
Systemic Risk and Resilience (SYRR) Group, Advancing Systems Analysis
(ASA) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
Amy Donovan
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN,
UK
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, WC2B 4BG, UK
Related authors
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a methodology to systematically gather evidence of the breadth of single natural hazards and their multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings. We apply this methodology to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where we find evidence of 21 single hazard types, and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships. This evidence is supplemented with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction research and practice in Kathmandu Valley.
Uldis Zandovskis, Davide Pigoli, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2733, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks at how lightning strikes happen over time and space, focusing on six storms in the UK during 2012 and 2015. By using real data, the research examines how often lightning strikes occur, how fast the storms move, and how far the strikes spread. The storms had different speeds (47–111 km/h) and times between strikes (0.01 to 100 seconds), with strikes spreading up to 80 km. The study’s findings help create models to better characterise severe storms.
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
Lakshmi S. Gopal, Rekha Prabha, Hemalatha Thirugnanam, Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We critically reviewed 250 articles from 2010 to 2023, analysed how social media is used to manage disasters, and developed the Social Media Literature Database. We summarise the methods used for data collection and filtering. Key findings include the widespread use of the latest technologies to handle data, proficiency in spatiotemporal analysis, and gaps in community interaction and resource identification. We also propose best practices for using social media to enhance disaster management.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a methodology to systematically gather evidence of the breadth of single natural hazards and their multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings. We apply this methodology to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where we find evidence of 21 single hazard types, and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships. This evidence is supplemented with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction research and practice in Kathmandu Valley.
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Compound hazards occur when two different natural hazards impact the same time period and spatial area. This article presents a methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards (SI–CH). The methodology is applied to compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain for the period 1979–2019. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent their spatial and temporal properties.
Mirianna Budimir, Alison Sneddon, Issy Nelder, Sarah Brown, Amy Donovan, and Linda Speight
Geosci. Commun., 5, 151–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper extracts key learning from two case studies (India and Mozambique), outlining solutions and approaches to challenges in developing forecast products. These lessons and solutions can be used by forecasters and practitioners to support the development of useful, appropriate, and co-designed forecast information for institutional decision-makers to support more effective early action in advance of disasters.
Faith E. Taylor, Paolo Tarolli, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2585–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, 2020
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, Hugo Winter, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2091–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating risks induced by interacting natural hazards remains a challenge for practitioners. An approach to tackle this challenge is to use multivariate statistical models. Here we evaluate the efficacy of six models. The models are compared against synthetic data which are comparable to time series of environmental variables. We find which models are more appropriate to estimate relations between hazards in a range of cases. We highlight the benefits of this approach with two examples.
Joel C. Gill, Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
Annette Witt, Bruce D. Malamud, Clara Mangili, and Achim Brauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5547–5581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a unique 9.5 m palaeo-lacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over a period of 10 000 years in the Piànico–Sèllere basin (southern Alps) during an interglacial period in the Pleistocene (sometime between 400 000 and 800 000 years ago). We analyse the palaeoflood series correlation, clustering, and cyclicity properties, finding a long-range cyclicity with a period of about 2030 years superimposed onto a fractional noise.
Bruce D. Malamud, Donald L. Turcotte, and Harold E. Brooks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2823–2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for the spatial–temporal cluster analysis of severe tornado touchdowns that are part of tornado outbreaks. Tornado outbreaks, groups of tornadoes occurring close to each other in time and space, constitute a severe hazard that has few quantitative measures. Our new approach, which we illustrate using three USA severe tornado outbreaks and models, differentiates between types of tornado outbreaks and, within outbreaks, identifies clusters in both time and space.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: a spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: A comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Flood exposure of environmental assets
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Ready, set, go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. Spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua Drought and the Wanli Drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustain and fulfil life on Earth through ecosystem services. Assessing their flood risk is thus seminal, besides required by several norms. Even though, this field is not yet sufficiently developed. We explored the exposure component of the flood risk, and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ecosystem services provided by the environmental assets, to discern assets and areas more important than others with metrics suitable to large scale studies.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Bonifácio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The "Ready, Set & Go!" system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is developed into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East and Southwest China.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Cited articles
Aitsi-Selmi, A., Blanchard, K., and Murray, V.: Ensuring science is useful,
usable and used in global disaster risk reduction and sustainable
development: a view through the Sendai framework lens, Palgrave Commun., 2,
1–9, https://doi.org/10.1057/palcomms.2016.16, 2016a.
Aitsi-Selmi, A., Murray, V., Wannous, C., Dickinson, C., Johnston, D.,
Kawasaki, A., Stevance, A.-S., and Yeung, T.: Reflections on a science and
technology agenda for 21st century disaster risk reduction, Int. J.
Disaster Risk Sci., 7, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-016-0081-x,
2016b.
Akenroye, T. O., Nygård, H. M., and Eyo, A.: Towards implementation of
sustainable development goals (SDG) in developing nations: A useful funding
framework, Int. Area Studies Rev., 21, 3–8,
https://doi.org/10.1177/2233865917743357, 2018.
Albris, K., Lauta, K. C., and Raju, E.: Disaster Knowledge Gaps: Exploring
the interface between science and policy for disaster risk reduction in
Europe, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci., 11, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00250-5, 2020.
Angeli, M.-G., Pasuto, A., and Silvano, S.: A critical review of landslide
monitoring experiences, Eng. Geol., 55, 133–147,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(99)00122-2, 2000.
Barclay, J., Haynes, K., Mitchell, T., Solana, C., Teeuw, R., Darnell, A.,
Crosweller, H. S., Cole, P., Pyle, D., Lowe, C., Fearnley, C., and Kelman,
I.: Framing volcanic risk communication within disaster risk reduction:
finding ways for the social and physical sciences to work together.
Geological Society, London, Spec. Publ., 305, 163–177,
https://doi.org/10.1144/SP305.14, 2008.
Boaz, A. and Hayden, C.: Pro-active evaluators: enabling research to be
useful, usable and used, Evaluation-US., 8, 440–453,
https://doi.org/10.1177/13563890260620630, 2002.
Boiten, W.: Hydrometry: IHE Delft Lecture Note Series, CRC Press, London,
256 pp., https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203971093, 2003.
Braun, V. and Clarke, V.: Using thematic analysis in psychology, Qual. Res.
Psychol., 3, 77–101, https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa, 2006.
Bretton, R. J., Gottsmann, J., Aspinall, W. P., and Christie, R.:
Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L'Aquila trial and
other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance, J. Appl.
Volcanol., 4, 18, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-015-0034-x, 2015.
Chmutina, K. and von Meding, J.: A dilemma of language: “Natural
disasters” in academic literature, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci., 10,
283–292, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-019-00232-2, 2019.
Clarivate: Web of Science, https://webofknowledge.com/, last access: 1 July 2022.
Cochran, E. S., Lawrence, J. F., Christensen, C., and Jakka, R. S.: The
quake-catcher network: Citizen Ssience expanding seismic horizons, Seismol.
Res. Lett., 80, 26–30, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.80.1.26, 2009.
Coronese, M., Lamperti, F., Keller, K., Chiaromonte, F., and Roventini, A.:
Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural
disasters, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 21450–21455,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907826116, 2019.
Cui, P., Peng, J., Shi, P., Tang, H., Ouyang, C., Zou, Q., Liu, L., Li, C.,
and Lei, Y.: Scientific challenges of research on natural hazards and
disaster risk, Geog. Sustain., 2, 216–223,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2021.09.001, 2021.
Cutter, S. L. and Finch, C.: Temporal and spatial changes in social
vulnerability to natural hazards, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105,
2301–2306, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0710375105, 2008.
De Angeli, S., Malamud, B. D., Rossi, L., Taylor, F. E., Trasforini, E., and
Rudari, R.: A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis,
Int. J. Disast. Risk Red., 73, 102829,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102829, 2022.
de Ruiter, M. C., Couasnon, A., van den Homberg, M. J. C., Daniell, J. E.,
Gill, J. C., and Ward, P. J.: Why we can no longer ignore consecutive
disasters, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001425,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001425, 2020.
de Ruiter, M. C., de Bruijn, J., Englhardt, J., Daniell, J., de Moel, H., and
Ward, P. J.: The asynergies of structural disaster risk reduction measures:
comparing floods and earthquakes, Earth's Future, 8, e2020EF001531, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001531, 2021.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Salinas, J. L., and Blöschl, G.: Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3295–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013, 2013.
Freddi, F., Galasso, C., Cremen, G., Dall'Asta, A., Di Sarno, L., Giaralis,
A., Gutiérrez-Urzúa, F., Málaga-Chuquitaype, C., Mitoulis, S.
A., Petrone, C., Sextos, A., Sousa, L., Tarbali, K., Tubaldi, E., Wardman,
J., and Woo, G.: Innovations in earthquake risk reduction for resilience:
Recent advances and challenges, Int. J. Disast. Risk Red., 60, 102267,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102267, 2021.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Reviewing and visualising the interactions of
natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 52, 680–722,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445, 2014.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016.
Gill, J. C. and Smith, M. (Eds.): Geosciences and the Sustainable Development Goals.
Sustainable Development Goals Series, Springer, Cham,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38815-7, 2021.
Gill, J. C., Barich, A., Bilham, N., Caven, S., Donovan, A., Ruiter, M. D., and
Smith, M.: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions, in: Geosciences and the Sustainable Development Goals, edited by: Gill, J. C. and Smith, M., 393–421, Sustainable Development Goals Series, Springer, Cham,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38815-7_16, 2021.
Gillespie, T. W., Chu, J., Frankenberg, E., and Thomas, D.: Assessment and
prediction of natural hazards from satellite imagery, Prog. Phys. Geog., 31,
459–470, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133307083296, 2007.
Glasser, R.: The climate change imperative to transform disaster risk
management, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci., 11, 152–154,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00248-z, 2020.
Hemingway, R. and Gunawan, O.: The Natural Hazards Partnership: A
public-sector collaboration across the UK for natural hazard disaster risk
reduction, Int. J. Disaster Risk Red., 27, 499–511,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.11.014, 2018.
Herrmann, R. B., Benz, H., and Ammon, C. J.: Monitoring the earthquake
source process in North America, Seismol. Soc. Am., 101, 2609–2625,
https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110095, 2011.
Herzig Van Wees, S. L., Målqvist, M., and Irwin, R.: Achieving the SDGs
through interdisciplinary research in global health, Scand. J. Public
Health, 47, 793–795, https://doi.org/10.1177/1403494818812637, 2019.
Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D.,
Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate
change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 816–821,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013.
Iglesias, V., Braswell, A. E., Rossi, M. W., Joseph, M. B., McShane, C.,
Cattau, M., Koontz, M. J., McGlinchy, J., Nagy, R. C., Balch, J., Leyk, S.,
and Travis, W. R.: Risky development: Increasing exposure to natural hazards
in the United States, Earth's Future., 9, e2020EF001795,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001795, 2021.
Izumi, T., Shaw, R., Ishiwatari, M., Djalante, R., Komino, T., Sukhwani, V.,
and Adu Gyamfi, B.: 30 Innovations linking disaster risk reduction with
sustainable development goals, Keio University, the University of Tokyo,
UNU-IAS, CWS Japan, Japan, 97 pp., http://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:7607 (last access: 1 May 2022), 2020.
Johansen, P. H., Ejrnæs, R., Kronvang, B., Olsen, J. V., Præstholm,
S., Schou, J. S., and Johansen, S. K.: Exploring the interdisciplinary
potential of the Agenda2030 – Interactions between five Danish societal
demands for sustainable land use, Land Use Policy, 94, 104501,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104501, 2020.
Johnston, B. and van de Lindt, J. W.: Barriers and possibilities for
interdisciplinary disaster science research: Critical appraisal of the
literature, Nat. Hazards Rev., 23, 04021053,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000520, 2022.
JRC (Joint Research Centre): Science for disaster risk management 2017:
knowing better and losing less, edited by: Marin Ferrer, M., Poljanšek, K.,
Clark, I., and De Groeve, T., Science for Disaster Risk Management, EUR 28034,
European Commission Publications Office, https://doi.org/10.2788/842809,
2017.
King, N.: Using templates in the thematic analysis of text, in: Essential guide to qualitative methods in organisational
research, edited by: Cassell, C. and Symon, G., 257–270, London, UK, Sage, https://doi.org/10.4135/9781446280119.n21, 2004.
Kreibich, H., de Ruiter, M. C., Goda, K., Keiler, M., Suppasri, A., and
Malamud, B.D.: Critical research in the water-related multi-hazard field,
Nat. Sustain., 5, 90–91, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00833-0, 2022a.
Kreibich, H., Malamud, B. D., Tarolli, P., and Ulbrich, U. (Eds.): Perspectives
on challenges and step changes for addressing natural hazards, Special
Issue, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1146.html, last access: 20 July 2022b.
Leal Filho, W., Lovren, V. O., Will, M., Salvia, A. L., and Frankenberger,
F.: Poverty: A central barrier to the implementation of the UN Sustainable
Development Goals, Environ. Sci. Policy, 125, 96–104,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.08.020, 2021.
Lerner-Lam, A.: Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and
future trends, Environ. Hazards-UK, 7, 10–19,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.04.007, 2007.
Luebken, U. and Mauch, C.: Uncertain environments: Natural hazards, risk and
insurance in historical perspective, Environ. Hist.-UK, 17, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.3197/096734011X12922358301012, 2011.
Mazzoleni, M., Mård, J., Rusca, M., Odongo, V., Lindersson, S., and Di
Baldassarre, G.: Floodplains in the Anthropocene: A global analysis of the
interplay between human population, built environment, and flood severity,
Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR027744, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027744,
2021.
Miles, M. B., Huberman, A. M., and Saldaña, J.: Qualitative Data Analysis: a methods sourcebook, 4th ed., SAGE Publications, London, UK, 408 p., ISBN 9781506353074, 2019.
Morss, R., Lazrus, H., and Demith, J. L.: The “inter” within
interdisciplinary research: Strategies for building integration across
fields, Risk Anal., 41, 1152–1161, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13246,
2021.
Nowell, L. S., Norris, J. M., White, D. E., and Moules, N. J.: Thematic
analysis: Striving to meet the trustworthiness criteria, Int. J. Qual.
Meth., 16, 1609406917733847, https://doi.org/10.1177/1609406917733847, 2017.
NVivo: Qualitatitive Data Analysis Version 1.5, https://www.qsrinternational.com/nvivo-qualitative-data-analysis-software/home, last access: 1 October 2021.
O'Keefe, P., Westgate, K., and Wisner, B.: Taking the naturalness out of
natural disasters, Nature, 260, 566–567, https://doi.org/10.1038/260566a0,
1976.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development): Revised field
of science and technology (FOS) classification in the Frascati manual, Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, Committee for Scientific
and Technological Policy, Working Party of National Experts on Science and
Technology Indicators, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development, Paris, France, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/EconStatKB/KnowledgebaseArticle10269.aspx
(last access: 1 April 2022), 2007.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development): Global
modelling of natural hazard risks: enhancing existing capabilities to
address new challenges, Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development, Paris, France, https://www.oecd.org/science/Final GRMI report.pdf (last access: 1 May 2022), 2012.
Paul, J. D., Buytaert, W., Allen, S., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.,
Bhusal, J., Cieslik, K., Clark, J., Dugar, S., Hannah, D. M., Stoffel, M.,
Dewulf, A., Dhital, M. R., Liu, W., Nayaval, J. L., Neupane, B., Schiller,
A., Smith, P. J., and Supper, R.: Citizen science for hydrological risk
reduction and resilience building, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, Water,
5, e1262, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1262, 2018.
Paulus, T. M. and Lester, J. N.: Using software to support qualitative data
analysis, in: Handbook of Qualitative
Research in Education, edited by: Ward, M. R. M. and Delamont, S., Ch. 37, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, https://doi.org/10.4337/9781788977159.00048, 2020.
Peek, L. A. and Mileti, D. S.: The history and future of disaster research,
in: Handbook of environmental
psychology, edited by: Bechtel, R. B. and Churchman, A., 511–524, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, US, 2002.
Peek, L. and Guikema, S.: Interdisciplinary theory, methods, and approaches
for hazards and disaster research: An introduction to the special issue,
Nat. Hazards Rev., 41, 1047–1058, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13777, 2021.
Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D.: Understanding compound, interconnected,
interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Anal.,
38, 2245–2257, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13128, 2018.
Poursanidis, D. and Chrysoulakis, N.: Remote Sensing, natural hazards and
the contribution of ESA Sentinels missions, Rem. Sens. Appl. Society
Enviro., 6, 25–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2017.02.001, 2017.
Rädler, A. T.: Invited perspectives: how does climate change affect the risk of natural hazards? Challenges and step changes from the reinsurance perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, 2022.
Robins, C. S. and Eisen, K.: Strategies for the effective use of NVivo in a
large-scale study: Qualitative analysis and the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't
Tell, Qual. Inq., 23, 768–778, https://doi.org/10.1177/1077800417731089,
2017.
Sakic Trogrlic, R., Cumiskey, L., Triyanti, A., Duncan, M., Eltinay, N.,
Hogeboom, R., Jasuja, M.m Meechaiya, C., Pickering, C., and Murray, V. :
Science and technology networks: a helping hand to boost implementation of
the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, Int. J. Disaster
Risk Sci., 8, 100–105, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-017-0117-x, 2017.
Sakic Trogrlic, R., van den Homberg, M., Budimir, M., McQuistan, C., Sneddon
A. and Golding, B.: Early warning systems and their role in disaster risk
reduction, in: Towards the “perfect” weather warning:
bridging disciplinary gaps through partnerships and communication, edited by: Golding, B., Springer
Nature Switzerland AG, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_2., 2022.
Shi, P., Ye, T., Wang, Y., Zhou, T., Xu, W., Du, J., Wang, J., Li, N.,
Huang, C., Liu, L., Chen, B., Su, Y., Fang, W., Wang, M., Hu, X., Wu, J.,
He, C., Zhang, Q., Ye, Q., Jaeger, C., and Okada, N.: Disaster risk science:
A geographical perspective and a research framework, Int. J. Disaster Risk
Sci., 11, 426–440, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00296-5, 2020.
Sidle, R. C., Taylor, D., Lu, X. X., Adger, W. N., Lowe, D. J., de Lange, W.
P., Newnham, R. M., and Dodson, J. R.: Interactions of natural hazards and
society in Austral-Asia: evidence in past and recent records, Quatern. Int.,
118–119, 181–203, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(03)00137-X, 2004.
Simonelli, T., Zoppi, L., Molinari, D., and Ballio, F.: Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022.
Smith, M. and Bricker, S.: Sustainable Cities and Communities, in: Geosciences and the Sustainable Development Goals, edited by: Gill, J. C.
and Smith, M., 259–282, Development Goals Series, Springer, Cham,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38815-7_11, 2021.
Strauch, R., Istanbulluoglu, E., and Riedel, J.: A new approach to mapping landslide hazards: a probabilistic integration of empirical and physically based models in the North Cascades of Washington, USA, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2477–2495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, 2019.
Taylor, F. E., Millington, J. D., Jacob, E., Malamud, B. D., and Pelling, M.:
Messy maps: qualitative GIS representations of resilience, Landscape Urban
Plan., 198, 103771, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103771, 2020.
Thiebes, B., Winkhardt-Enz, R., Schwarze, R., and Pickl, S.: Invited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022.
Ujjwal, K. C., Garg, S., Hilton, J., Aryal, J., and Forbes-Smith, N.: Cloud
computing in natural hazard modeling systems: current research trends and
future directions, Int. J. Disast. Risk R., 38, 101188,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101188, 2019.
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction):
Developing early warning systems: a checklist, United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland,
https://www.undrr.org/publication/developing-early-warning-systems-checklist-third-international-conference-early-warning,
(last access: 1 December 2021), 2006.
UNISDR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction): Disaster risk
reduction and resilience in the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development,
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland,
https://www.undrr.org/publication/disaster-risk-reduction-and-resilience-2030-agenda-sustainable-development,
(last access: 1 February 2022), 2015a.
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction):
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, United Nations
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland,
https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030
(last access: 20 November 2021), 2015b.
United Nations: Sustainable Development Goals, Communication material,
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/news/communications-material/ (last access: 1 March 2022), 2019.
United Nations: Standard country or area codes for statistical use (M49),
Geography Regions, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methodology/m49/ (last access: 30 November 2021),
2021.
Wabbels, D. and Bezzola, G. R.: Invited Perspectives: “Small country, big challenges – Switzerland's hazard prevention research”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, 2022.
Ward, P. J., Daniell, J., Duncan, M., Dunne, A., Hananel, C., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Tijssen, A., Torresan, S., Ciurean, R., Gill, J. C., Sillmann, J., Couasnon, A., Koks, E., Padrón-Fumero, N., Tatman, S., Tronstad Lund, M., Adesiyun, A., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Alabaster, A., Bulder, B., Campillo Torres, C., Critto, A., Hernández-Martín, R., Machado, M., Mysiak, J., Orth, R., Palomino Antolín, I., Petrescu, E.-C., Reichstein, M., Tiggeloven, T., Van Loon, A. F., Vuong Pham, H., and de Ruiter, M. C.: Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022.
Wartman, J., Berman, J. W., Bostrom, A., Miles, S., Olsen, M., Gurley, K.,
Irish, J., Lowes, L., Tanner, T., Dafni, J., Grilliot, M., Lyda, A., and
Peltier, J.: Research needs, challenges, and strategic approaches for
natural hazards and disaster reconnaissance, Front. Built Environ., 6,
573068, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2020.573068, 2020.
WMO (World Meterological Organization): WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic
Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019) (WMO-No. 1267),
WMO, Geneva, 90 pp., https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10989 (last access: 1 May 2022), 2021.
WordClouds.com: Software for designing wordclouds,
https://www.wordclouds.co.uk/, last access: 12 July 2022.
Zuccaro, G., Leone, M. F., and Martucci, C.: Future research and innovation
priorities in the field of natural hazards, disaster risk reduction,
disaster risk management and climate change adaptation: A shared vision from
the ESPREssO project, Int. J. Disaster Risk Red., 51, 101783,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101783, 2020.
Executive editor
The paper can be considered as highlight paper
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint