Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 12 Apr 2022
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Joris Pianezze
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
now at: Laboratoire d'Aérologie/OMP, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, UMR5560, Toulouse, France
Jonathan Beuvier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Guillaume Samson
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Ghislain Faure
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Gilles Garric
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Related authors
Damien Héron, Stephanie Evan, Joris Pianezze, Thibaut Dauhut, Jerome Brioude, Karen Rosenlof, Vincent Noel, Soline Bielli, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Cammas
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, 2020
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Upward transport within tropical cyclones of water vapor from the low troposphere into the colder upper troposphere/lower stratosphere can result in the moistening of this region. Balloon observations and model simulations of tropical cyclone Enawo in the less-observed Southwest Indian Ocean (the third most tropical cyclone active region on Earth) are used to show how convective overshoots within Enawo penetrate the tropopause directly, injecting water/ice into the stratosphere.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Pierre Tulet, Andréa Di Muro, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Valentin Duflot, Santiago Arellano, Brice Foucart, Jérome Brioude, Karine Sellegri, Aline Peltier, Alessandro Aiuppa, Christelle Barthe, Chatrapatty Bhugwant, Soline Bielli, Patrice Boissier, Guillaume Boudoire, Thierry Bourrianne, Christophe Brunet, Fréderic Burnet, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Franck Gabarrot, Bo Galle, Gaetano Giudice, Christian Guadagno, Fréderic Jeamblu, Philippe Kowalski, Jimmy Leclair de Bellevue, Nicolas Marquestaut, Dominique Mékies, Jean-Marc Metzger, Joris Pianezze, Thierry Portafaix, Jean Sciare, Arnaud Tournigand, and Nicolas Villeneuve
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5355–5378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The STRAP campaign was conducted in 2015 to investigate the volcanic plumes of Piton de La Fournaise (La Réunion, France). For the first time, measurements were conducted at the local (near the vent) and regional scales around the island. The STRAP 2015 campaign gave a unique set of multi-disciplinary data that can now be used by modellers to improve the numerical parameterisations of the physical and chemical evolution of the volcanic plumes.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Sylvie Malardel, Aurore Voldoire, and César Sauvage
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-58, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
In numerical models, the turbulent exchanges of heat and momentum at the air—sea interface are not represented explicitly but using parameterizations depending on the surface parameters. A new parameterization of turbulent fluxes (WASP) has been implemented in the surface model SURFEX v8.1 and validated on four case studies. It combines a close fit to observations including cyclonic winds, a dependency on the wave growth rate and the possibility to be used in atmosphere—waves coupled models.
Florent Garnier, Sara Fleury, Gilles Garric, Jérôme Bouffard, Michel Tsamados, Antoine Laforge, Marion Bocquet, Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen, and Frédérique Remy
The Cryosphere, 15, 5483–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5483-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5483-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow depth data are essential to monitor the impacts of climate change on sea ice volume variations and their impacts on the climate system. For that purpose, we present and assess the altimetric snow depth product, computed in both hemispheres from CryoSat-2 and SARAL satellite data. The use of these data instead of the common climatology reduces the sea ice thickness by about 30 cm over the 2013–2019 period. These data are also crucial to argue for the launch of the CRISTAL satellite mission.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, and Marie-Noëlle Bouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11857–11887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Air–sea processes are key elements during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events. We aim to progress in their representation in high-resolution weather forecast. Using coupled ocean–air–wave simulations, we investigated air–sea mechanisms modulated by ocean and waves during a case that occurred in southern France. Results showed significant impact of the forecast on low-level dynamics and air–sea fluxes and illustrated potential benefits of coupled numerical weather prediction systems.
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
Florian Lemarié, Guillaume Samson, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Hervé Giordani, Théo Brivoal, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 543–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-543-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A simplified model of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) of intermediate complexity between a bulk parameterization and a full three-dimensional atmospheric model has been developed and integrated to the NEMO ocean model.
An objective in the derivation of such a simplified model is to reach an apt representation of ocean-only numerical simulations of some of the key processes associated with air–sea interactions at the characteristic scales of the oceanic mesoscale.
Damien Héron, Stephanie Evan, Joris Pianezze, Thibaut Dauhut, Jerome Brioude, Karen Rosenlof, Vincent Noel, Soline Bielli, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Cammas
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, 2020
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Upward transport within tropical cyclones of water vapor from the low troposphere into the colder upper troposphere/lower stratosphere can result in the moistening of this region. Balloon observations and model simulations of tropical cyclone Enawo in the less-observed Southwest Indian Ocean (the third most tropical cyclone active region on Earth) are used to show how convective overshoots within Enawo penetrate the tropopause directly, injecting water/ice into the stratosphere.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin and Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Ocean Sci., 16, 1125–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A kilometre-scale coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation is used to study the impact of a medicane on the oceanic upper layer. The processes responsible for the surface cooling are comparable to those of weak tropical cyclones. The oceanic response is influenced by the dynamics of the central Mediterranean. In particular, a cyclonic eddy leads to weaker cooling. Heavy rain occuring early in the event creates a salinity barrier layer, reinforcing the effects of the surface fluxes on the cooling.
Xavier Couvelard, Florian Lemarié, Guillaume Samson, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Fabrice Ardhuin, Rachid Benshila, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3067–3090, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3067-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), an objective is to demonstrate the contribution of coupling the high-resolution analysis and forecasting system with a wave model. This study describes the necessary steps and discusses the various choices made for coupling a wave model and an oceanic model for global-scale applications.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin and Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6861–6881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A coupled, kilometre-scale simulation of a medicane is used to assess the impact of the ocean feedback and role of surface fluxes. Sea surface temperature (SST) drop is much weaker than for tropical cyclones, resulting in no impact on the cyclone. Surface fluxes depend mainly on wind and SST for evaporation and on air temperature for sensible heat. Processes in the Mediterranean, like advection of continental air, rain evaporation and dry air intrusion, play a role in cyclone development.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, and Véronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1675–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Air–sea exchanges during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are key and their representation must be improved for high-resolution weather forecasts. This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a case that occurred in southern France. To focus on the impact of sea state, we developed and used an original coupled air–wave model. Results show modifications of the forecast for the air–sea fluxes, the near-surface wind and the location of precipitation.
Antonio Bonaduce, Mounir Benkiran, Elisabeth Remy, Pierre Yves Le Traon, and Gilles Garric
Ocean Sci., 14, 1405–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, 2018
Jean-Michel Lellouche, Eric Greiner, Olivier Le Galloudec, Gilles Garric, Charly Regnier, Marie Drevillon, Mounir Benkiran, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Florent Gasparin, Olga Hernandez, Bruno Levier, Yann Drillet, Elisabeth Remy, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
Ocean Sci., 14, 1093–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In the coming decades, a strong growth of the ocean economy is expected. Scientific advances in operational oceanography will play a crucial role in addressing many environmental challenges and in the development of ocean-related economic activities. In this context, remarkable improvements have been achieved with the current Mercator Ocean system. 3-D water masses, sea level, sea ice and currents have been improved, and thus major oceanic variables are hard to distinguish from the data.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Pierre Tulet, Andréa Di Muro, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Valentin Duflot, Santiago Arellano, Brice Foucart, Jérome Brioude, Karine Sellegri, Aline Peltier, Alessandro Aiuppa, Christelle Barthe, Chatrapatty Bhugwant, Soline Bielli, Patrice Boissier, Guillaume Boudoire, Thierry Bourrianne, Christophe Brunet, Fréderic Burnet, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Franck Gabarrot, Bo Galle, Gaetano Giudice, Christian Guadagno, Fréderic Jeamblu, Philippe Kowalski, Jimmy Leclair de Bellevue, Nicolas Marquestaut, Dominique Mékies, Jean-Marc Metzger, Joris Pianezze, Thierry Portafaix, Jean Sciare, Arnaud Tournigand, and Nicolas Villeneuve
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5355–5378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The STRAP campaign was conducted in 2015 to investigate the volcanic plumes of Piton de La Fournaise (La Réunion, France). For the first time, measurements were conducted at the local (near the vent) and regional scales around the island. The STRAP 2015 campaign gave a unique set of multi-disciplinary data that can now be used by modellers to improve the numerical parameterisations of the physical and chemical evolution of the volcanic plumes.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Thomas Arsouze, Sidonie Révillon, Jonathan Beuvier, and Catherine Jeandel
Biogeosciences, 13, 5259–5276, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5259-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An extensive compilation of published neodymium (Nd) concentrations and isotopic compositions (Nd IC) was realized in order to establish a new database and a map (using a high-resolution geological map of the area) of the distribution of these parameters for all the Mediterranean margins. The use of a high-resolution regional oceanic model (1/12° of horizontal resolution) allows us to realistically simulate for the first time the Nd IC distribution in the Mediterranean Sea.
Mathieu Hamon, Jonathan Beuvier, Samuel Somot, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Eric Greiner, Gabriel Jordà, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Thomas Arsouze, Karine Béranger, Florence Sevault, Clotilde Dubois, Marie Drevillon, and Yann Drillet
Ocean Sci., 12, 577–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-577-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes MEDRYS, a MEDiterranean sea ReanalYsiS at high resolution for the period 1992–2013. The NEMOMED12 ocean model is forced at the surface by a new high resolution atmospheric forcing dataset (ALDERA). Altimeter data, satellite SST and temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated. The ability of the reanalysis to represent the sea surface high-frequency variability, water mass characteristics and transports through the Strait of Gibraltar is shown.
A. Guyennon, M. Baklouti, F. Diaz, J. Palmieri, J. Beuvier, C. Lebaupin-Brossier, T. Arsouze, K. Béranger, J.-C. Dutay, and T. Moutin
Biogeosciences, 12, 7025–7046, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7025-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7025-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has already been identified as a potentially significant source of carbon export in the Mediterranean Sea, though in situ export estimations are scarce. This work provides a thorough analysis at basin scale of carbon export with the coupled model NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-MED model. The seasonality and the processes of particulate and dissolved carbon production are also investigated. DOC export appears to be dominant in most regions, especially in the eastern basin.
F. Dupont, S. Higginson, R. Bourdallé-Badie, Y. Lu, F. Roy, G. C. Smith, J.-F. Lemieux, G. Garric, and F. Davidson
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1577–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1577-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1577-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
1/12th degree resolution runs of Arctic--Atlantic were compared for the period 2003-2009. We found good representation of sea surface height and of its statistics; model temperature and salinity in general agreement with in situ measurements, but upper ocean properties in Beaufort Sea are challenging; distribution of concentration and volume of sea ice is improved when slowing down the ice and further improvements require better initial conditions and modifications to mixing.
M. Ayache, J.-C. Dutay, P. Jean-Baptiste, K. Beranger, T. Arsouze, J. Beuvier, J. Palmieri, B. Le-vu, and W. Roether
Ocean Sci., 11, 323–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-323-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-323-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The anthropogenic tritium invasion, and its decay product helium-3, was simulated for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea, using a high-resolution regional model (NEMO-MED12). The simulation covers the entire tritium (3H) transient generated by the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests performed in the 1950s and early 1960s and run until 2011. The model correctly simulates the main features of the thermohaline circulation in the Mediterranean Sea, with a realistic time compared to observations.
J. Palmiéri, J. C. Orr, J.-C. Dutay, K. Béranger, A. Schneider, J. Beuvier, and S. Somot
Biogeosciences, 12, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-781-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Different observational-based estimates of CO2 uptake and resulting
acidification of the Mediterranean Sea vary widely. A new study finds
that even the smallest of those are an upper limit because the approach
used assumes air-sea CO2 equilibrium. Then with a lower limit from new
fine-scale numerical model simulations, the authors bracket
Mediterranean Sea CO2 uptake and acidification rates. They conclude that
its rate of surface acidifcation is much like that for typical ocean
waters.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Forecasting Large Hail and Lightning using Additive Logistic Regression Models and the ECMWF Reforecasts
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornado associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Comparison of two nationwide lightning location systems and characteristics of could-to-ground lightning in China
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr Bońkowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Poland is going to construct some important structures. So, knowledge about strong and extreme winds in our country is important for enginners who will design these structures. The authors’ study of maximum wind speeds in Poland is based on a set of annual maximum gust wind speeds measured at 39 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010 (plotted on extremal probability paper), tornado reports collected from 1899 to 2019, and estimation of wind speeds of derechos and recent tornadoes in Poland.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improving forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as wind, extreme rainfall and hail. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and that cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storms and improved forecasting.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistics of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-255, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
It is the first comparison and assessment of two Chinese nationwide lightning location systems. The spatial and temporal distribution of long-term lightning activity in China is analyzed, indicating that low latitude, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surface are favorable factors for lightning occurrence. What is interesting is that high cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow droughts, or below-average snowpack, can result from either dry conditions and/or rainfall instead of snowfall. Monitoring snow drought through time and across space is important to evaluate when snow drought onset occurred, its duration, spatial extent, and severity as well as what conditions created it or led to its termination. We present visualization techniques, including a web-based snow-drought-tracking tool, to evaluate snow droughts and assess their impacts in the western US.
Cited articles
Amodei, M., Sanchez, I., and Stein, J.: Verification of the French operational
high-resolution model AROME with the regional Brier probability score,
Meteorol. Appl., 22, 731–745,
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1510, 2015. a
Arnold, A. K., Lewis, H. W., Hyder, P., Siddorn, J., and O'Dea, E.: The
Sensitivity of British Weather to Ocean Tides, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
48, e2020GL090732, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090732, 2021. a
AVISO+ Satellite Altimetry Data: https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/home.html, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Bao, J.-W., Wilczak, J. M., Choi, J.-K., and Kantha, L. H.: Numerical
Simulations of Air-Sea Interaction under High Wind Conditions
Using a Coupled Model: A Study of Hurricane Development,
Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 2190–2210,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<2190:NSOASI>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Barnier, B., Madec, G., Penduff, T., Molines, J.-M., Treguier, A.-M.,
Le Sommer, J., Beckmann, A., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Dengg, J., Derval,
C., Durand, E., Gulev, S., Remy, E., Talandier, C., Theetten, S., Maltrud,
M., McClean, J., and De Cuevas, B.: Impact of partial steps and momentum
advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting
resolution, Ocean Dynam., 56, 543–567, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-006-0082-1,
2006. a
Bastin, S., Drobinski, P., Guénard, V., Caccia, J.-L., Campistron, B., Dabas,
A. M., Delville, P., Reitebuch, O., and Werner, C.: On the Interaction
between Sea Breeze and Summer Mistral at the Exit of the Rhône Valley,
Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1647–1668, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3116.1, 2006. a
Bender, M. A. and Ginis, I.: Real-Case Simulations of Hurricane–Ocean
Interaction Using A High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects on
Hurricane Intensity, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 917–946,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0917:RCSOHO>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Bergeron, J.-P.: Contrasting years in the Gironde estuary (Bay of Biscay, NE
Atlantic) springtime outflow and consequences for zooplankton pyruvate kinase
activity and the nutritional condition of anchovy larvae: an early view,
ICES J. Mar. Sci., 61, 928–932,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.06.019, 2004. a
Blayo, E. and Debreu, L.: Revisiting open boundary conditions from the point of
view of characteristic variables, Ocean Model., 9, 231–252,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.07.001, 2005. a
Bouin, M.-N. and Lebeaupin Brossier, C.: Surface processes in the 7 November 2014 medicane from air–sea coupled high-resolution numerical modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6861–6881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, 2020a. a
Bouin, M.-N. and Lebeaupin Brossier, C.: Impact of a medicane on the oceanic surface layer from a coupled, kilometre-scale simulation, Ocean Sci., 16, 1125–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, 2020b. a
Brassington, G., Martin, M., Tolman, H., Akella, S., Balmeseda, M., Chambers,
C., Chassignet, E., Cummings, J., Drillet, Y., Jansen, P., Laloyaux, P., Lea,
D., Mehra, A., Mirouze, I., Ritchie, H., Samson, G., Sandery, P., Smith, G.,
Suarez, M., and Todling, R.: Progress and challenges in short- to
medium-range coupled prediction, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8,
s239–s258, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1049875, 2015. a
Brenon, I. and Le Hir, P.: Modelling the Turbidity Maximum in the Seine
Estuary (France): Identification of Formation Processes, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 49, 525–544,
https://doi.org/10.1006/ecss.1999.0514, 1999. a
Brousseau, P., Seity, Y., Ricard, D., and Léger, J.: Improvement of the
forecast of convective activity from the AROME-France system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2231–2243, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2822, 2016. a
Carniel, S., Benetazzo, A., Bonaldo, D., Falcieri, F. M., Miglietta, M. M.,
Ricchi, A., and Sclavo, M.: Scratching beneath the surface while coupling
atmosphere, ocean and waves: Analysis of a dense water formation event, Ocean Model., 101, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.03.007, 2016. a
Carrere, L., Lyard, F., Cancet, M., and Guillot, A.: FES 2014, a new tidal
model on the global ocean with enhanced accuracy in shallow seas and in the
Arctic region, in: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Vienna, Austria, 12–17 April 2015, 5481 pp.,
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 2015. a, b
Carret, A., Birol, F., Estournel, C., Zakardjian, B., and Testor, P.: Synergy between in situ and altimetry data to observe and study Northern Current variations (NW Mediterranean Sea), Ocean Sci., 15, 269–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-269-2019, 2019. a
Caumont, O., Mandement, M., Bouttier, F., Eeckman, J., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lovat, A., Nuissier, O., and Laurantin, O.: The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021. a, b
CeCILL-C Free Software License Agreement: https://www.cecill.info/licences/Licence_CeCILL-C_V1-en.txt, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Charnock, H.: Wind stress on a water surface, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 81, 639–640, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708135027, 1955. a
Chen, S., Campbell, T. J., Jin, H., Gabersek, S., Hodur, R. M., and Martin, P.:
Effect of Two-Way Air–Sea Coupling in High and Low Wind Speed Regimes,
Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 3579–3602, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3119.1, 2010. a
Chevallier, C., Herbette, S., Marié, L., Le Borgne, P., Marsouin, A.,
Péré, S., Levier, B., and Reason, C.: Observations of the Ushant front
displacements with MSG/SEVIRI derived sea surface temperature data, in: Remote sensing of ocean colour, temperature and salinity, Remote Sens. Environ., 146, 3–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.07.038, 2014. a
Colella, S., Böhm, E., Cesarini, C., Garnesson, P., Netting, J., and Calton,
B.: Product User Manual for All Ocean Colour Products (CMEMS-OC-PUM-009-ALL), Tech. rep., Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, https://catalogue.marine.copernicus.eu/documents/PUM/CMEMS-OC-PUM-009-ALL.pdf (last access: 7 April 2022), 2020. a
Coriolis Operational Oceanography: Measurements for Ocean Understanding, The Coriolis Project, https://www.coriolis.eu.org/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Courtier, P., Freydier, C., Geleyn, J.-F., Rabier, F., and Rochas, M.: The
ARPEGE project at Météo-France, in: ECMWF workshop on numerical methods in atmospheric modeling, ECMW, Reading, UK, 2, 193–231, 1991. a
Craig, A., Valcke, S., and Coquart, L.: Development and performance of a new version of the OASIS coupler, OASIS3-MCT_3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3297-2017, 2017. a, b
Cuxart, J., Bougeault, P., and Redelsperger, J.-L.: A turbulence scheme
allowing for mesoscale and large-eddy simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656202, 2000. a
Darmaraki, S., Somot, S., Sevault, F., Nabat, P., Cabos Narvaez, W. D.,
Cavicchia, L., Djurdjevic, V. m., Li, L., Sannino, G., and Sein, D. V.:
Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1371–1392, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04661-z, 2019. a
De Bono, A., Peduzzi, P., Kluser, S., and Giuliani, G.: Impacts of Summer 2003 Heat Wave in Europe, 4,
https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:32255 (last access: 7 April 2022), 2004. a
D'Ortenzio, F., Iudicone, D., de Boyer Montegut, C., Testor, P., Antoine, D.,
Marullo, S., Santoleri, R., and Madec, G.: Seasonal variability of the mixed
layer depth in the mediterranean sea as derived from in situ profiles,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022463, 2005. a
Ducrocq, V., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Homar Santaner, V.,
Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., and Wernli, H.: Advances in understanding and
forecasting of heavy precipitation in Mediterranean through the HyMeX SOP1
field campaign, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2856,
2016. a
Echevin, V., Crepon, M., and Mortier, L.: Interaction of a Coastal Current
with a Gulf: Application to the Shelf Circulation of the Gulf of Lions in the
Mediterranean Sea, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 188–206,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2003)033<0188:IOACCW>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Estournel, C., Broche, P., Marsaleix, P., Devenon, J.-L., Auclair, F., and
Vehil, R.: The Rhone River Plume in Unsteady Conditions: Numerical and
Experimental Results, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 53, 25–38,
https://doi.org/10.1006/ecss.2000.0685, 2001. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Hare, J. E., Grachev, A. A., and Edson, J. B.:
Bulk Parameterization of Air-Sea Fluxes: Updates and Verification
for the COARE Algorithm, J. Climate, 16, 571–591,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0571:BPOASF>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b
Fouquart, Y. and Bonnel, B.: Computations of Solar Heating of the
Earth’s Atmosphere: A New Parameterization, Beitrage zur Physik der Atmosphare, 53, 35–62, 1980. a
Fujiwhara, S.: The natural tendency towards symmetry of motion and its
application as a principle in meteorology, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 47,
287–293, 1921. a
García, M. J. L., Millot, C., Font, J., and García-Ladona, E.: Surface
circulation variability in the Balearic Basin, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 99, 3285–3296, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JC02114, 1994. a
Grifoll, M., Navarro, J., Pallares, E., Ràfols, L., Espino, M., and
Palomares, A.: Ocean–atmosphere–wave characterisation of a wind jet (Ebro shelf, NW Mediterranean Sea), Nonlinear Proc. Geoph., 23, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-143-2016, 2016. a
Gutknecht, E., Reffray, G., Mignot, A., Dabrowski, T., and Sotillo, M. G.: Modelling the marine ecosystem of Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) European waters for CMEMS operational applications, Ocean Sci., 15, 1489–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1489-2019, 2019. a
Hewitt, H. T., Roberts, M., Mathiot, P., Biastoch, A., Blockley, E.,
Chassignet, E. P., Fox-Kemper, B., Hyder, P., Marshall, D. P., Popova, E.,
Treguier, A.-M., Zanna, L., Yool, A., Yu, Y., Beadling, R., Bell, M.,
Kuhlbrodt, T., Arsouze, T., Bellucci, A., Castruccio, F., Gan, B.,
Putrasahan, D., Roberts, C. D., Van Roekel, L., and Zhang, Q.: Resolving and
Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models,
Current Climate Change Reports, 6, 137–152,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00164-w, 2020. a
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate Change 2013 – The
Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2014. a
Jullien, S., Marchesiello, P., Menkes, C. E., Lefèvre, J., Jourdain, N. C.,
Samson, G., and Lengaigne, M.: Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones:
climatology and processes, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2831–2854,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2096-6, 2014. a
Jullien, S., Masson, S., Oerder, V., Samson, G., Colas, F., and Renault, L.:
Impact of Ocean-Atmosphere Current Feedback on Ocean Mesoscale
Activity: Regional Variations and Sensitivity to Model
Resolution, J. Climate, 33, 2585–2602,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0484.1, 2020. a
Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M.: A One-Dimensional Entraining/Detraining Plume Model and Its Application in Convective Parameterization,
Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 47, 2784–2802,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Kendon, M., McCarthy, M., Jevrejeva, S., Matthews, A., and Legg, T.: State of
the UK climate 2018, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1–55,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6213, 2019. a, b
Le Boyer, A., Charria, G., Le Cann, B., Lazure, P., and Marié, L.:
Circulation on the shelf and the upper slope of the Bay of Biscay,
Cont. Shelf Res., 55, 97–107,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.01.006, 2013. a
Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Léger, F., Giordani, H., Beuvier, J., Bouin, M.,
Ducrocq, V., and Fourrié, N.: Dense water formation in the north‐western
Mediterranean area during HyMeX‐SOP2 in 1/36∘ ocean simulations:
Ocean‐atmosphere coupling impact, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 5749–5773, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012526, 2017. a, b, c, d
Leclair, M. and Madec, G.: A conservative leapfrog time stepping method, Ocean Model., 30, 88–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.06.006, 2009. a
Lellouche, J.-M., Greiner, E., Le Galloudec, O., Garric, G., Regnier, C., Drevillon, M., Benkiran, M., Testut, C.-E., Bourdalle-Badie, R., Gasparin, F., Hernandez, O., Levier, B., Drillet, Y., Remy, E., and Le Traon, P.-Y.: Recent updates to the Copernicus Marine Service global ocean monitoring and forecasting real-time 1∕12∘ high-resolution system, Ocean Sci., 14, 1093–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, 2018. a
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Saulter, A., Graham, J., Bush, M., Siddorn, J., Palmer, T., Lock, A., Edwards, J., Bricheno, L., Martínez-de la Torre, A., and Clark, J.: The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019. a
Liberato, M. L. R., Pinto, J. G., Trigo, R. M., Ludwig, P., Ordóñez, P., Yuen, D., and Trigo, I. F.: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013. a
Ličer, M., Smerkol, P., Fettich, A., Ravdas, M., Papapostolou, A., Mantziafou, A., Strajnar, B., Cedilnik, J., Jeromel, M., Jerman, J., Petan, S., Malačič, V., and Sofianos, S.: Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling, Ocean Sci., 12, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-71-2016, 2016. a
Léger, F., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Giordani, H., Arsouze, T., Beuvier, J.,
Bouin, M.-N., Bresson, E., Ducrocq, V., Fourrié, N., and Nuret, M.: Dense
water formation in the north-western Mediterranean area during HyMeX-SOP2 in
1/36∘ ocean simulations: Sensitivity to initial conditions, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 5549–5569,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011542, 2016. a
Ma, F., Yuan, X., Jiao, Y., and Ji, P.: Unprecedented Europe Heat in
June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087809, 2020. a
Madec, G., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Pierre-Antoine Bouttier, Bricaud, C.,
Bruciaferri, D., Calvert, D., Chanut, J., Clementi, E., Coward, A., Delrosso,
D., Ethé, C., Flavoni, S., Graham, T., Harle, J., Iovino, D., Lea, D.,
Lévy, C., Lovato, T., Martin, N., Masson, S., Mocavero, S., Paul, J.,
Rousset, C., Storkey, D., Storto, A., and Vancoppenolle, M.: NEMO ocean
engine, Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.1472492, 2017. a, b
Mandement, M. and Caumont, O.: A numerical study to investigate the roles of former Hurricane Leslie, orography and evaporative cooling in the 2018 Aude heavy-precipitation event, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021. a
Maraldi, C., Chanut, J., Levier, B., Ayoub, N., De Mey, P., Reffray, G., Lyard, F., Cailleau, S., Drévillon, M., Fanjul, E. A., Sotillo, M. G., Marsaleix, P., and the Mercator Research and Development Team: NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland configuration, Ocean Sci., 9, 745–771, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-745-2013, 2013. a
Masson, V.: A Physically-Based Scheme For The Urban Energy
Budget In Atmospheric Models, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 94,
357–397, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1002463829265, 2000. a
Masson, V., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., Faroux, S., Alias, A., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Barbu, A., Boone, A., Bouyssel, F., Brousseau, P., Brun, E., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Donier, S., Essaouini, K., Gibelin, A.-L., Giordani, H., Habets, F., Jidane, M., Kerdraon, G., Kourzeneva, E., Lafaysse, M., Lafont, S., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lemonsu, A., Mahfouf, J.-F., Marguinaud, P., Mokhtari, M., Morin, S., Pigeon, G., Salgado, R., Seity, Y., Taillefer, F., Tanguy, G., Tulet, P., Vincendon, B., Vionnet, V., and Voldoire, A.: The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013. a, b
Meehl, G. A.: Development of global coupled ocean-atmosphere general
circulation models, Clim. Dynam., 5, 19–33, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00195851,
1990. a
Meroni, A. N., Renault, L., Parodi, A., and Pasquero, C.: Role of the Oceanic
Vertical Thermal Structure in the Modulation of Heavy Precipitations Over the
Ligurian Sea, Pure App. Geophys., 175, 4111–4130,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-2002-y, 2018. a, b
Meurdesoif, Y.: XIOS, in: Second Workshop on Coupling Technologies for Earth System Models (CW2013), NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA,
http://forge.ipsl.jussieu.fr/ioserver/raw-attachment/wiki/WikiStart/XIOS-BOULDER.pdf (last access: 7 April 2022), 2013. a
Miglietta, M. M. and Rotunno, R.: Development mechanisms for Mediterranean
tropical-like cyclones (medicanes), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 1444–1460, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3503, 2019. a
Millot, C.: Mesoscale and seasonal variabilities of the circulation in the
western Mediterranean, Dyn. Atmos. Oc., 15, 179–214,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0265(91)90020-G, 1991. a
Millot, C. and Taupier-Letage, I.: Circulation in the Mediterranean Sea, in: The Mediterranean Sea, edited by: Saliot, A., Springer Berlin
Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 29–66, https://doi.org/10.1007/b107143, 2005. a
Millot, C., Taupier-Letage, I., and Benzohra, M.: The Algerian eddies,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 27, 203–219, https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-8252(90)90003-E,
1990. a
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.:
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated
correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 16663–16682, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237, 1997. a
Mogensen, K. S., Hewson, T., Keeley, S., and Magnusson, L.: Effects of ocean
coupling on weather forecasts, ECMWF newsletter, 6–7,
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/156/news/effects-ocean-coupling-weather-forecasts (last access: 7 April 2022), 2018. a
NEMO Community Ocean Model: https://www.nemo-ocean.eu/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Noilhan, J. and Planton, S.: A Simple Parameterization of Land Surface
Processes for Meteorological Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117,
536–549, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0536:ASPOLS>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Obermann, A., Bastin, S., Belamari, S., Conte, D., Gaertner, M. A., Li, L., and
Ahrens, B.: Mistral and Tramontane wind speed and wind direction patterns in
regional climate simulations, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1059–1076,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3053-3, 2018. a
Orain, F., Roquet, H., and Saux Picart, E.: European Near Real Time Level 3S
Sea Surface Temperature Product
SST_EUR_L3S_NRT_OBSERVATIONS_010_009_a, Quality Information Document
#1.6, Tech. rep., Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, 16 pp., https://catalogue.marine.copernicus.eu/documents/QUID/CMEMS-SST-QUID-010-009-a.pdf (last access: 7 April 2022), 2021. a
Pasch, R. J. and Roberts, D. P.: Hurricane Leslie, National
Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report, Tech. rep. AL132018, 18 pp.,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132018_Leslie.pdf(last access: 7 April 2022), 2019. a
Pellerin, P., Ritchie, H., Saucier, F. J., Roy, F., Desjardins, S., Valin, M.,
and Lee, V.: Impact of a Two-Way Coupling between an Atmospheric and an
Ocean-Ice Model over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Mon. Weather Rev., 132,
1379–1398, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1379:IOATCB>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Pianezze, J., Barthe, C., Bielli, S., Tulet, P., Jullien, S., Cambon, G.,
Bousquet, O., Claeys, M., and Cordier, E.: A New Coupled
Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm
Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013–2014) in the
South-West Indian Ocean, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 801–825, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001177, 2018. a
Pinty, J.-P. and Jabouille, P.: A mixed-phase cloud parameterization for use in a mesoscale non-hydrostatic model: simulations of a squall line and of
orographic precipitation, in: Proceedings of the AMS conference on cloud physics, Amer. Meteor. soc., Everett, WA, USA, 17–21 August 1998, 217–220,
http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/dir_publication/pinty_jabouille_ams_ccp1998.pdf,
1998. a
Pullen, J., Doyle, J. D., and Signell, R. P.: Two-way air-sea coupling: A
study of the Adriatic, Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1465–1483,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3137.1, 2006. a
Pullen, J., Allard, R., Seo, H., Miller, A. J., Chen, S., Pezzi, L. P., Smith,
T., Chu, P., Alves, J., and Caldeira, R.: Coupled ocean-atmosphere
forecasting at short and medium time scales, J. Mar. Res., 75, 877–921,
https://doi.org/10.1357/002224017823523991, 2017. a
Rainaud, R., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Ducrocq, V., Giordani, H., Nuret, M.,
Fourrié, N., Bouin, M.-N., Taupier-Letage, I., and Legain, D.:
Characterization of air–sea exchanges over the Western Mediterranean Sea
during HyMeX SOP1 using the AROME–WMED model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 173–187, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2480, 2016. a
Rainaud, R., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Ducrocq, V., and Giordani, H.:
High-resolution air-sea coupling impact on two heavy precipitation events in
the Western Mediterranean: Air-Sea Coupling Impact on Two
Mediterranean HPEs, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2448–2462, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3098, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f
Redelsperger, J.-L., Bouin, M.-N., Pianezze, J., Garnier, V., and Marié, L.:
Impact of a sharp, small-scale SST front on the marine atmospheric boundary
layer on the Iroise Sea: Analysis from a hectometric simulation, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 3692–3714, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3650, 2019. a
Renault, L., Lemarié, F., and Arsouze, T.: On the implementation and
consequences of the oceanic currents feedback in ocean–atmosphere coupled
models, Ocean Model., 141, 101423, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101423,
2019a. a
Renault, L., Marchesiello, P., Masson, S., and McWilliams, J. C.: Remarkable
Control of Western Boundary Currents by Eddy Killing , a
Mechanical Air‐Sea Coupling Process, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2743–2751, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081211, 2019b. a
Sauvage, C., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., and Bouin, M.-N.: Towards kilometer-scale ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled forecast: a case study on a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11857–11887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, 2021. a
Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Bénard, P., Bouttier, F.,
Lac, C., and Masson, V.: The AROME-France Convective-Scale
Operational Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 976–991,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3425.1, 2011. a
Shukla, J., Palmer, T. N., Hagedorn, R., Hoskins, B., Kinter, J., Marotzke, J.,
Miller, M., and Slingo, J.: Toward a New Generation of World Climate
Research and Computing Facilities, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1407–1412, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2900.1, 2010. a
Simpson, J. H., Bos, W. G., Schirmer, F., Souza, A. J., Rippeth, T. P., Jones,
S. E., and Hydes, D.: Periodic stratification in the rhine ROFI in the
north-sea, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00099/21050/ (last access: 7 April 2022), 1993. a
Small, R., Carniel, S., Campbell, T., Teixeira, J., and Allard, R.: The
response of the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian Seas to a summer Mistral event: A
coupled atmosphere–ocean approach, Ocean Model., 48, 30–44,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.02.003, 2012. a
Small, R. J., Campbell, T., Teixeira, J., Carniel, S., Smith, T. A., Dykes, J.,
Chen, S., and Allard, R.: Air-Sea Interaction in the Ligurian Sea:
Assessment of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Using In Situ Data from
LASIE07, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1785–1808,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3431.1, 2011. a
Smith, R. K., Montgomery, M. T., and Van Sang, N.: Tropical cyclone spin-up
revisited, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135,
1321–1335, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.428, 2009. a
Sotillo, M. G., Cailleau, S., Lorente, P., Levier, B., Aznar, R., Reffray, G.,
Amo-Baladron, A., Chanut, J., Benkiran, M., and Alvarez-Fanjul, E.: The
MyOcean IBI Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis Systems: operational products and
roadmap to the future Copernicus Service, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8, 63–79, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1014663, 2015. a, b
Sotillo, M. G., Levier, B., Lorente, P., Guihou, K., Aznar, R., Amo, A., Aouf,
L., and Ghantous, M.: Quality information document for Atlantic -Iberian
Biscay Irish-Ocean Physics Analysis and Forecasting Product
(CMEMS-IBI-QUID-005-001), Copernicus Marine Environment
Monitoring Service, Tech. rep., 120 pp., https://catalogue.marine.copernicus.eu/documents/QUID/CMEMS-IBI-QUID-005-001.pdf,
2021. a, b, c, d
Stockdale, T. N., Anderson, D. L. T., Alves, J. O. S., and Balmaseda, M. A.:
Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model,
Nature, 392, 370–373, https://doi.org/10.1038/32861, 1998. a
SURFEX: https://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Szekely, T., Gourrion, J., Pouliquen, S., and Reverdin, G.: The CORA 5.2 dataset for global in situ temperature and salinity measurements: data description and validation, Ocean Sci., 15, 1601–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1601-2019, 2019. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B.,
Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Schulz, W.: A Climatology
of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources,
J. Climate, 32, 1813–1837, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1, 2019. a
Taylor, J. P., Edwards, J. M., Glew, M. D., Hignett, P., and Slingo, A.:
Studies with a flexible new radiation code. II: Comparisons with aircraft
short-wave observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 839–861, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712253204, 1996. a
Testor, P., Bosse, A., Houpert, L., Margirier, F., Mortier, L., Legoff, H.,
Dausse, D., Labaste, M., Karstensen, J., Hayes, D., Olita, A., Ribotti, A.,
Schroeder, K., Chiggiato, J., Onken, R., Heslop, E., Mourre, B., D'ortenzio,
F., Mayot, N., Lavigne, H., de Fommervault, O., Coppola, L., Prieur, L.,
Taillandier, V., Durrieu de Madron, X., Bourrin, F., Many, G., Damien, P.,
Estournel, C., Marsaleix, P., Taupier-Letage, I., Raimbault, P., Waldman, R.,
Bouin, M.-N., Giordani, H., Caniaux, G., Somot, S., Ducrocq, V., and Conan,
P.: Multiscale Observations of Deep Convection in the Northwestern
Mediterranean Sea During Winter 2012–2013 Using Multiple Platforms, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 1745–1776, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012671,
2018. a
The Oasis Coupler: https://oasis.cerfacs.fr/en/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Thompson, B., Sanchez, C., Heng, B. C. P., Kumar, R., Liu, J., Huang, X.-Y., and Tkalich, P.: Development of a MetUM (v 11.1) and NEMO (v 3.6) coupled operational forecast model for the Maritime Continent – Part 1: Evaluation of ocean forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1081–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1081-2021, 2021. a
Trigo, I. F.: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the
Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses,
Clim. Dynam., 26, 127–143, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9, 2006. a
Trigo, I. F., Bigg, G. R., and Davies, T. D.: Climatology of Cyclogenesis
Mechanisms in the Mediterranean, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 549–569,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0549:COCMIT>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Umlauf, L. and Burchard, H.: A generic length-scale equation for geophysical
turbulence models, J. Mar. Res., 61, 235–265,
https://doi.org/10.1357/002224003322005087, 2003. a
Umlauf, L. and Burchard, H.: Second-order turbulence closure models for
geophysical boundary layers. A review of recent work, Cont. Shelf Res., 25, 795–827, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.08.004, 2005. a
Valcke, S.: The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013, 2013. a, b
van Aken, H. M.: Surface currents in the Bay of Biscay as observed with
drifters between 1995 and 1999, Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic
Research Papers, 49, 1071–1086,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0637(02)00017-1, 2002. a
Vilibić, I., Mihanović, H., Janeković, I., Denamiel, C., Poulain, P.-M., Orlić, M., Dunić, N., Dadić, V., Pasarić, M., Muslim, S., Gerin, R., Matić, F., Šepić, J., Mauri, E., Kokkini, Z., Tudor, M., Kovač, Ž., and Džoić, T.: Wintertime dynamics in the coastal northeastern Adriatic Sea: the NAdEx 2015 experiment, Ocean Sci., 14, 237–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-237-2018, 2018. a
Viúdez, A., Pinot, J.-M., and Haney, R. L.: On the upper layer circulation in
the Alboran Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103,
21653–21666, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC01082, 1998. a
Voldoire, A., Decharme, B., Pianezze, J., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Sevault, F., Seyfried, L., Garnier, V., Bielli, S., Valcke, S., Alias, A., Accensi, M., Ardhuin, F., Bouin, M.-N., Ducrocq, V., Faroux, S., Giordani, H., Léger, F., Marsaleix, P., Rainaud, R., Redelsperger, J.-L., Richard, E., and Riette, S.: SURFEX v8.0 interface with OASIS3-MCT to couple atmosphere with hydrology, ocean, waves and sea-ice models, from coastal to global scales, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017.
a, b
Warner, J. C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J. B.: Development of a
Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling
System, Ocean Model., 35, 230–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.07.010,
2010. a
Weusthoff, T., Ament, F., Arpagaus, M., and Rotach, M. W.: Assessing the
Benefits of Convection-Permitting Models by Neighborhood
Verification: Examples from MAP D-PHASE, Mon. Weather Rev.,
138, 3418–3433, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3380.1, 2010. a
Yelekçi, O., Charria, G., Capet, X., Reverdin, G., Sudre, J., and Yahia, H.:
Spatial and seasonal distributions of frontal activity over the French
continental shelf in the Bay of Biscay, Cont. Shelf Res., 144,
65–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2017.06.015, 2017. a
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint