Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 12 Apr 2022
| 12 Apr 2022
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Joris Pianezze
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
now at: Laboratoire d'Aérologie/OMP, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, UMR5560, Toulouse, France
Jonathan Beuvier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Guillaume Samson
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Ghislain Faure
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Gilles Garric
Operational Oceanography Department, Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Related authors
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2879, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations, and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show successful results , positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Pierre Tulet, Joel Van Baelen, Pierre Bosser, Jérome Brioude, Aurélie Colomb, Philippe Goloub, Andrea Pazmino, Thierry Portafaix, Michel Ramonet, Karine Sellegri, Melilotus Thyssen, Léa Gest, Nicolas Marquestaut, Dominique Mékiès, Jean-Marc Metzger, Gilles Athier, Luc Blarel, Marc Delmotte, Guillaume Desprairies, Mérédith Dournaux, Gaël Dubois, Valentin Duflot, Kevin Lamy, Lionel Gardes, Jean-François Guillemot, Valérie Gros, Joanna Kolasinski, Morgan Lopez, Olivier Magand, Erwan Noury, Manuel Nunes-Pinharanda, Guillaume Payen, Joris Pianezze, David Picard, Olivier Picard, Sandrine Prunier, François Rigaud-Louise, Michael Sicard, and Benjamin Torres
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3821–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The MAP-IO program aims to compensate for the lack of atmospheric and oceanographic observations in the Southern Ocean by equipping the ship Marion Dufresne with a set of 17 scientific instruments. This program collected 700 d of measurements under different latitudes, seasons, sea states, and weather conditions. These new data will support the calibration and validation of numerical models and the understanding of the atmospheric composition of this region of Earth.
Damien Héron, Stephanie Evan, Joris Pianezze, Thibaut Dauhut, Jerome Brioude, Karen Rosenlof, Vincent Noel, Soline Bielli, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Cammas
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, 2020
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Upward transport within tropical cyclones of water vapor from the low troposphere into the colder upper troposphere/lower stratosphere can result in the moistening of this region. Balloon observations and model simulations of tropical cyclone Enawo in the less-observed Southwest Indian Ocean (the third most tropical cyclone active region on Earth) are used to show how convective overshoots within Enawo penetrate the tropopause directly, injecting water/ice into the stratosphere.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Pierre Tulet, Andréa Di Muro, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Valentin Duflot, Santiago Arellano, Brice Foucart, Jérome Brioude, Karine Sellegri, Aline Peltier, Alessandro Aiuppa, Christelle Barthe, Chatrapatty Bhugwant, Soline Bielli, Patrice Boissier, Guillaume Boudoire, Thierry Bourrianne, Christophe Brunet, Fréderic Burnet, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Franck Gabarrot, Bo Galle, Gaetano Giudice, Christian Guadagno, Fréderic Jeamblu, Philippe Kowalski, Jimmy Leclair de Bellevue, Nicolas Marquestaut, Dominique Mékies, Jean-Marc Metzger, Joris Pianezze, Thierry Portafaix, Jean Sciare, Arnaud Tournigand, and Nicolas Villeneuve
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5355–5378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The STRAP campaign was conducted in 2015 to investigate the volcanic plumes of Piton de La Fournaise (La Réunion, France). For the first time, measurements were conducted at the local (near the vent) and regional scales around the island. The STRAP 2015 campaign gave a unique set of multi-disciplinary data that can now be used by modellers to improve the numerical parameterisations of the physical and chemical evolution of the volcanic plumes.
Aliette Chenal, Gilles Garric, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Mathieu Hamon, Giovanni Ruggiero, Florent Garnier, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3633, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes to improve the representation of ice and snow volumes in the Arctic and Antarctic based on a novel multivariate assimilation method using freeboard radar and snow depth satellite data. The approach leads to an improved sea ice and snow volume representation, even during summer when satellite data is limited. The performance of the assimilated system is better in the Arctic than in Antarctica, where ocean/ice interactions play a key role.
Adam M. Cook, Youyu Lu, Xianmin Hu, David Brickman, David Hebert, Chantelle Layton, and Gilles Garric
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-14, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-14, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean bottom temperatures from a global ocean reanalysis product are found to be consistent with in situ observations on Scotian Shelf. Statistical analysis reveals positive relationship between changes in lobster catch rate and ocean bottom temperature off the southwest coast of Nova Scotia during 2008–2023. A standardized lobster catch rate index with influence of bottom temperature included is more consistent with available stock biomass compared to the index without such influence.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2879, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations, and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show successful results , positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Li Zhai, Youyu Lu, Haiyan Wang, Gilles Garric, and Simon Van Gennip
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-17, 2024
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Statistics of Marine Heatwaves and Cold Spells in the water column of Northwest Atlantic during 1993–2023 are derived for the first time using a global ocean reanalysis product. On Scotian Shelf temperature and parameters of extreme events present layered structures in the water column, long-term trends and sharp increases around 2012. Quantification of extreme warm (cold) conditions in 2012 (1998) supports previous studies on the impacts of these conditions on several marine life species.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-140, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This article details a new feature we implemented in the most popular regional atmospheric model (WRF). This feature allows data to be exchanged between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean-Atmosphere-Sea-Ice-Soil – Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Pierre Tulet, Joel Van Baelen, Pierre Bosser, Jérome Brioude, Aurélie Colomb, Philippe Goloub, Andrea Pazmino, Thierry Portafaix, Michel Ramonet, Karine Sellegri, Melilotus Thyssen, Léa Gest, Nicolas Marquestaut, Dominique Mékiès, Jean-Marc Metzger, Gilles Athier, Luc Blarel, Marc Delmotte, Guillaume Desprairies, Mérédith Dournaux, Gaël Dubois, Valentin Duflot, Kevin Lamy, Lionel Gardes, Jean-François Guillemot, Valérie Gros, Joanna Kolasinski, Morgan Lopez, Olivier Magand, Erwan Noury, Manuel Nunes-Pinharanda, Guillaume Payen, Joris Pianezze, David Picard, Olivier Picard, Sandrine Prunier, François Rigaud-Louise, Michael Sicard, and Benjamin Torres
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3821–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The MAP-IO program aims to compensate for the lack of atmospheric and oceanographic observations in the Southern Ocean by equipping the ship Marion Dufresne with a set of 17 scientific instruments. This program collected 700 d of measurements under different latitudes, seasons, sea states, and weather conditions. These new data will support the calibration and validation of numerical models and the understanding of the atmospheric composition of this region of Earth.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Sylvie Malardel, Aurore Voldoire, and César Sauvage
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 117–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In numerical models, the turbulent exchanges of heat and momentum at the air–sea interface are not represented explicitly but with parameterisations depending on the surface parameters. A new parameterisation of turbulent fluxes (WASP) has been implemented in the surface model SURFEX v8.1 and validated on four case studies. It combines a close fit to observations including cyclonic winds, a dependency on the wave growth rate, and the possibility of being used in atmosphere–wave coupled models.
Florent Garnier, Sara Fleury, Gilles Garric, Jérôme Bouffard, Michel Tsamados, Antoine Laforge, Marion Bocquet, Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen, and Frédérique Remy
The Cryosphere, 15, 5483–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5483-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5483-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow depth data are essential to monitor the impacts of climate change on sea ice volume variations and their impacts on the climate system. For that purpose, we present and assess the altimetric snow depth product, computed in both hemispheres from CryoSat-2 and SARAL satellite data. The use of these data instead of the common climatology reduces the sea ice thickness by about 30 cm over the 2013–2019 period. These data are also crucial to argue for the launch of the CRISTAL satellite mission.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, and Marie-Noëlle Bouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11857–11887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Air–sea processes are key elements during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events. We aim to progress in their representation in high-resolution weather forecast. Using coupled ocean–air–wave simulations, we investigated air–sea mechanisms modulated by ocean and waves during a case that occurred in southern France. Results showed significant impact of the forecast on low-level dynamics and air–sea fluxes and illustrated potential benefits of coupled numerical weather prediction systems.
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
Florian Lemarié, Guillaume Samson, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Hervé Giordani, Théo Brivoal, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 543–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-543-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A simplified model of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) of intermediate complexity between a bulk parameterization and a full three-dimensional atmospheric model has been developed and integrated to the NEMO ocean model.
An objective in the derivation of such a simplified model is to reach an apt representation of ocean-only numerical simulations of some of the key processes associated with air–sea interactions at the characteristic scales of the oceanic mesoscale.
Damien Héron, Stephanie Evan, Joris Pianezze, Thibaut Dauhut, Jerome Brioude, Karen Rosenlof, Vincent Noel, Soline Bielli, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Cammas
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, 2020
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Upward transport within tropical cyclones of water vapor from the low troposphere into the colder upper troposphere/lower stratosphere can result in the moistening of this region. Balloon observations and model simulations of tropical cyclone Enawo in the less-observed Southwest Indian Ocean (the third most tropical cyclone active region on Earth) are used to show how convective overshoots within Enawo penetrate the tropopause directly, injecting water/ice into the stratosphere.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin and Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Ocean Sci., 16, 1125–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A kilometre-scale coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation is used to study the impact of a medicane on the oceanic upper layer. The processes responsible for the surface cooling are comparable to those of weak tropical cyclones. The oceanic response is influenced by the dynamics of the central Mediterranean. In particular, a cyclonic eddy leads to weaker cooling. Heavy rain occuring early in the event creates a salinity barrier layer, reinforcing the effects of the surface fluxes on the cooling.
Xavier Couvelard, Florian Lemarié, Guillaume Samson, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Fabrice Ardhuin, Rachid Benshila, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3067–3090, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3067-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), an objective is to demonstrate the contribution of coupling the high-resolution analysis and forecasting system with a wave model. This study describes the necessary steps and discusses the various choices made for coupling a wave model and an oceanic model for global-scale applications.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin and Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6861–6881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A coupled, kilometre-scale simulation of a medicane is used to assess the impact of the ocean feedback and role of surface fluxes. Sea surface temperature (SST) drop is much weaker than for tropical cyclones, resulting in no impact on the cyclone. Surface fluxes depend mainly on wind and SST for evaporation and on air temperature for sensible heat. Processes in the Mediterranean, like advection of continental air, rain evaporation and dry air intrusion, play a role in cyclone development.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, and Véronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1675–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Air–sea exchanges during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are key and their representation must be improved for high-resolution weather forecasts. This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a case that occurred in southern France. To focus on the impact of sea state, we developed and used an original coupled air–wave model. Results show modifications of the forecast for the air–sea fluxes, the near-surface wind and the location of precipitation.
Antonio Bonaduce, Mounir Benkiran, Elisabeth Remy, Pierre Yves Le Traon, and Gilles Garric
Ocean Sci., 14, 1405–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1405-2018, 2018
Jean-Michel Lellouche, Eric Greiner, Olivier Le Galloudec, Gilles Garric, Charly Regnier, Marie Drevillon, Mounir Benkiran, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Florent Gasparin, Olga Hernandez, Bruno Levier, Yann Drillet, Elisabeth Remy, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
Ocean Sci., 14, 1093–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In the coming decades, a strong growth of the ocean economy is expected. Scientific advances in operational oceanography will play a crucial role in addressing many environmental challenges and in the development of ocean-related economic activities. In this context, remarkable improvements have been achieved with the current Mercator Ocean system. 3-D water masses, sea level, sea ice and currents have been improved, and thus major oceanic variables are hard to distinguish from the data.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Pierre Tulet, Andréa Di Muro, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Valentin Duflot, Santiago Arellano, Brice Foucart, Jérome Brioude, Karine Sellegri, Aline Peltier, Alessandro Aiuppa, Christelle Barthe, Chatrapatty Bhugwant, Soline Bielli, Patrice Boissier, Guillaume Boudoire, Thierry Bourrianne, Christophe Brunet, Fréderic Burnet, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Franck Gabarrot, Bo Galle, Gaetano Giudice, Christian Guadagno, Fréderic Jeamblu, Philippe Kowalski, Jimmy Leclair de Bellevue, Nicolas Marquestaut, Dominique Mékies, Jean-Marc Metzger, Joris Pianezze, Thierry Portafaix, Jean Sciare, Arnaud Tournigand, and Nicolas Villeneuve
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5355–5378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The STRAP campaign was conducted in 2015 to investigate the volcanic plumes of Piton de La Fournaise (La Réunion, France). For the first time, measurements were conducted at the local (near the vent) and regional scales around the island. The STRAP 2015 campaign gave a unique set of multi-disciplinary data that can now be used by modellers to improve the numerical parameterisations of the physical and chemical evolution of the volcanic plumes.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Thomas Arsouze, Sidonie Révillon, Jonathan Beuvier, and Catherine Jeandel
Biogeosciences, 13, 5259–5276, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5259-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An extensive compilation of published neodymium (Nd) concentrations and isotopic compositions (Nd IC) was realized in order to establish a new database and a map (using a high-resolution geological map of the area) of the distribution of these parameters for all the Mediterranean margins. The use of a high-resolution regional oceanic model (1/12° of horizontal resolution) allows us to realistically simulate for the first time the Nd IC distribution in the Mediterranean Sea.
Mathieu Hamon, Jonathan Beuvier, Samuel Somot, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Eric Greiner, Gabriel Jordà, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Thomas Arsouze, Karine Béranger, Florence Sevault, Clotilde Dubois, Marie Drevillon, and Yann Drillet
Ocean Sci., 12, 577–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-577-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes MEDRYS, a MEDiterranean sea ReanalYsiS at high resolution for the period 1992–2013. The NEMOMED12 ocean model is forced at the surface by a new high resolution atmospheric forcing dataset (ALDERA). Altimeter data, satellite SST and temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated. The ability of the reanalysis to represent the sea surface high-frequency variability, water mass characteristics and transports through the Strait of Gibraltar is shown.
A. Guyennon, M. Baklouti, F. Diaz, J. Palmieri, J. Beuvier, C. Lebaupin-Brossier, T. Arsouze, K. Béranger, J.-C. Dutay, and T. Moutin
Biogeosciences, 12, 7025–7046, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7025-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7025-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has already been identified as a potentially significant source of carbon export in the Mediterranean Sea, though in situ export estimations are scarce. This work provides a thorough analysis at basin scale of carbon export with the coupled model NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-MED model. The seasonality and the processes of particulate and dissolved carbon production are also investigated. DOC export appears to be dominant in most regions, especially in the eastern basin.
F. Dupont, S. Higginson, R. Bourdallé-Badie, Y. Lu, F. Roy, G. C. Smith, J.-F. Lemieux, G. Garric, and F. Davidson
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1577–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1577-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1577-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
1/12th degree resolution runs of Arctic--Atlantic were compared for the period 2003-2009. We found good representation of sea surface height and of its statistics; model temperature and salinity in general agreement with in situ measurements, but upper ocean properties in Beaufort Sea are challenging; distribution of concentration and volume of sea ice is improved when slowing down the ice and further improvements require better initial conditions and modifications to mixing.
M. Ayache, J.-C. Dutay, P. Jean-Baptiste, K. Beranger, T. Arsouze, J. Beuvier, J. Palmieri, B. Le-vu, and W. Roether
Ocean Sci., 11, 323–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-323-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-323-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The anthropogenic tritium invasion, and its decay product helium-3, was simulated for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea, using a high-resolution regional model (NEMO-MED12). The simulation covers the entire tritium (3H) transient generated by the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests performed in the 1950s and early 1960s and run until 2011. The model correctly simulates the main features of the thermohaline circulation in the Mediterranean Sea, with a realistic time compared to observations.
J. Palmiéri, J. C. Orr, J.-C. Dutay, K. Béranger, A. Schneider, J. Beuvier, and S. Somot
Biogeosciences, 12, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-781-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Different observational-based estimates of CO2 uptake and resulting
acidification of the Mediterranean Sea vary widely. A new study finds
that even the smallest of those are an upper limit because the approach
used assumes air-sea CO2 equilibrium. Then with a lower limit from new
fine-scale numerical model simulations, the authors bracket
Mediterranean Sea CO2 uptake and acidification rates. They conclude that
its rate of surface acidifcation is much like that for typical ocean
waters.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Brief Communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
The Record-Breaking Precipitation Event of December 2022 in Portugal
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact-drivers in the context of food security
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Spatial identification of regions at risk to multi-hazards at pan European level: an implemented methodological approach
Are heavy rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1945, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically, and that such a specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river leading to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on day 12.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Joona Samuel Cornér, Clément Gael Francis Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1749, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETC) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographic setting.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Alois Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hot-spots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at European level at risk to multi-hazards. The findings point out the socio-economic dimension as determinant factor for the risk potential to multi-hazard. The outcome provides valuable input for the Disaster Risk Management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in the National Risk Assessments preparation.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-196, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of flood, 14 % of gravitational mass movements and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017–2020 occurred after a heavy rainfall event and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events is significantly increased. The study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Cited articles
Amodei, M., Sanchez, I., and Stein, J.: Verification of the French operational
high-resolution model AROME with the regional Brier probability score,
Meteorol. Appl., 22, 731–745,
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1510, 2015. a
Arnold, A. K., Lewis, H. W., Hyder, P., Siddorn, J., and O'Dea, E.: The
Sensitivity of British Weather to Ocean Tides, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
48, e2020GL090732, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090732, 2021. a
AVISO+ Satellite Altimetry Data: https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/home.html, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Bao, J.-W., Wilczak, J. M., Choi, J.-K., and Kantha, L. H.: Numerical
Simulations of Air-Sea Interaction under High Wind Conditions
Using a Coupled Model: A Study of Hurricane Development,
Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 2190–2210,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<2190:NSOASI>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Barnier, B., Madec, G., Penduff, T., Molines, J.-M., Treguier, A.-M.,
Le Sommer, J., Beckmann, A., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Dengg, J., Derval,
C., Durand, E., Gulev, S., Remy, E., Talandier, C., Theetten, S., Maltrud,
M., McClean, J., and De Cuevas, B.: Impact of partial steps and momentum
advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting
resolution, Ocean Dynam., 56, 543–567, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-006-0082-1,
2006. a
Bastin, S., Drobinski, P., Guénard, V., Caccia, J.-L., Campistron, B., Dabas,
A. M., Delville, P., Reitebuch, O., and Werner, C.: On the Interaction
between Sea Breeze and Summer Mistral at the Exit of the Rhône Valley,
Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1647–1668, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3116.1, 2006. a
Bender, M. A. and Ginis, I.: Real-Case Simulations of Hurricane–Ocean
Interaction Using A High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects on
Hurricane Intensity, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 917–946,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0917:RCSOHO>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Bergeron, J.-P.: Contrasting years in the Gironde estuary (Bay of Biscay, NE
Atlantic) springtime outflow and consequences for zooplankton pyruvate kinase
activity and the nutritional condition of anchovy larvae: an early view,
ICES J. Mar. Sci., 61, 928–932,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.06.019, 2004. a
Blayo, E. and Debreu, L.: Revisiting open boundary conditions from the point of
view of characteristic variables, Ocean Model., 9, 231–252,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.07.001, 2005. a
Bouin, M.-N. and Lebeaupin Brossier, C.: Surface processes in the 7 November 2014 medicane from air–sea coupled high-resolution numerical modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6861–6881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, 2020a. a
Bouin, M.-N. and Lebeaupin Brossier, C.: Impact of a medicane on the oceanic surface layer from a coupled, kilometre-scale simulation, Ocean Sci., 16, 1125–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, 2020b. a
Brassington, G., Martin, M., Tolman, H., Akella, S., Balmeseda, M., Chambers,
C., Chassignet, E., Cummings, J., Drillet, Y., Jansen, P., Laloyaux, P., Lea,
D., Mehra, A., Mirouze, I., Ritchie, H., Samson, G., Sandery, P., Smith, G.,
Suarez, M., and Todling, R.: Progress and challenges in short- to
medium-range coupled prediction, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8,
s239–s258, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1049875, 2015. a
Brenon, I. and Le Hir, P.: Modelling the Turbidity Maximum in the Seine
Estuary (France): Identification of Formation Processes, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 49, 525–544,
https://doi.org/10.1006/ecss.1999.0514, 1999. a
Brousseau, P., Seity, Y., Ricard, D., and Léger, J.: Improvement of the
forecast of convective activity from the AROME-France system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2231–2243, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2822, 2016. a
Carniel, S., Benetazzo, A., Bonaldo, D., Falcieri, F. M., Miglietta, M. M.,
Ricchi, A., and Sclavo, M.: Scratching beneath the surface while coupling
atmosphere, ocean and waves: Analysis of a dense water formation event, Ocean Model., 101, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.03.007, 2016. a
Carrere, L., Lyard, F., Cancet, M., and Guillot, A.: FES 2014, a new tidal
model on the global ocean with enhanced accuracy in shallow seas and in the
Arctic region, in: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Vienna, Austria, 12–17 April 2015, 5481 pp.,
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 2015. a, b
Carret, A., Birol, F., Estournel, C., Zakardjian, B., and Testor, P.: Synergy between in situ and altimetry data to observe and study Northern Current variations (NW Mediterranean Sea), Ocean Sci., 15, 269–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-269-2019, 2019. a
Caumont, O., Mandement, M., Bouttier, F., Eeckman, J., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lovat, A., Nuissier, O., and Laurantin, O.: The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021. a, b
CeCILL-C Free Software License Agreement: https://www.cecill.info/licences/Licence_CeCILL-C_V1-en.txt, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Charnock, H.: Wind stress on a water surface, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 81, 639–640, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708135027, 1955. a
Chen, S., Campbell, T. J., Jin, H., Gabersek, S., Hodur, R. M., and Martin, P.:
Effect of Two-Way Air–Sea Coupling in High and Low Wind Speed Regimes,
Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 3579–3602, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3119.1, 2010. a
Chevallier, C., Herbette, S., Marié, L., Le Borgne, P., Marsouin, A.,
Péré, S., Levier, B., and Reason, C.: Observations of the Ushant front
displacements with MSG/SEVIRI derived sea surface temperature data, in: Remote sensing of ocean colour, temperature and salinity, Remote Sens. Environ., 146, 3–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.07.038, 2014. a
Colella, S., Böhm, E., Cesarini, C., Garnesson, P., Netting, J., and Calton,
B.: Product User Manual for All Ocean Colour Products (CMEMS-OC-PUM-009-ALL), Tech. rep., Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, https://catalogue.marine.copernicus.eu/documents/PUM/CMEMS-OC-PUM-009-ALL.pdf (last access: 7 April 2022), 2020. a
Coriolis Operational Oceanography: Measurements for Ocean Understanding, The Coriolis Project, https://www.coriolis.eu.org/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Courtier, P., Freydier, C., Geleyn, J.-F., Rabier, F., and Rochas, M.: The
ARPEGE project at Météo-France, in: ECMWF workshop on numerical methods in atmospheric modeling, ECMW, Reading, UK, 2, 193–231, 1991. a
Craig, A., Valcke, S., and Coquart, L.: Development and performance of a new version of the OASIS coupler, OASIS3-MCT_3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3297-2017, 2017. a, b
Cuxart, J., Bougeault, P., and Redelsperger, J.-L.: A turbulence scheme
allowing for mesoscale and large-eddy simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712656202, 2000. a
Darmaraki, S., Somot, S., Sevault, F., Nabat, P., Cabos Narvaez, W. D.,
Cavicchia, L., Djurdjevic, V. m., Li, L., Sannino, G., and Sein, D. V.:
Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1371–1392, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04661-z, 2019. a
De Bono, A., Peduzzi, P., Kluser, S., and Giuliani, G.: Impacts of Summer 2003 Heat Wave in Europe, 4,
https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:32255 (last access: 7 April 2022), 2004. a
D'Ortenzio, F., Iudicone, D., de Boyer Montegut, C., Testor, P., Antoine, D.,
Marullo, S., Santoleri, R., and Madec, G.: Seasonal variability of the mixed
layer depth in the mediterranean sea as derived from in situ profiles,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022463, 2005. a
Ducrocq, V., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Homar Santaner, V.,
Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., and Wernli, H.: Advances in understanding and
forecasting of heavy precipitation in Mediterranean through the HyMeX SOP1
field campaign, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2856,
2016. a
Echevin, V., Crepon, M., and Mortier, L.: Interaction of a Coastal Current
with a Gulf: Application to the Shelf Circulation of the Gulf of Lions in the
Mediterranean Sea, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 188–206,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2003)033<0188:IOACCW>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Estournel, C., Broche, P., Marsaleix, P., Devenon, J.-L., Auclair, F., and
Vehil, R.: The Rhone River Plume in Unsteady Conditions: Numerical and
Experimental Results, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 53, 25–38,
https://doi.org/10.1006/ecss.2000.0685, 2001. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Hare, J. E., Grachev, A. A., and Edson, J. B.:
Bulk Parameterization of Air-Sea Fluxes: Updates and Verification
for the COARE Algorithm, J. Climate, 16, 571–591,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0571:BPOASF>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b
Fouquart, Y. and Bonnel, B.: Computations of Solar Heating of the
Earth’s Atmosphere: A New Parameterization, Beitrage zur Physik der Atmosphare, 53, 35–62, 1980. a
Fujiwhara, S.: The natural tendency towards symmetry of motion and its
application as a principle in meteorology, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 47,
287–293, 1921. a
García, M. J. L., Millot, C., Font, J., and García-Ladona, E.: Surface
circulation variability in the Balearic Basin, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 99, 3285–3296, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JC02114, 1994. a
Grifoll, M., Navarro, J., Pallares, E., Ràfols, L., Espino, M., and
Palomares, A.: Ocean–atmosphere–wave characterisation of a wind jet (Ebro shelf, NW Mediterranean Sea), Nonlinear Proc. Geoph., 23, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-143-2016, 2016. a
Gutknecht, E., Reffray, G., Mignot, A., Dabrowski, T., and Sotillo, M. G.: Modelling the marine ecosystem of Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) European waters for CMEMS operational applications, Ocean Sci., 15, 1489–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1489-2019, 2019. a
Hewitt, H. T., Roberts, M., Mathiot, P., Biastoch, A., Blockley, E.,
Chassignet, E. P., Fox-Kemper, B., Hyder, P., Marshall, D. P., Popova, E.,
Treguier, A.-M., Zanna, L., Yool, A., Yu, Y., Beadling, R., Bell, M.,
Kuhlbrodt, T., Arsouze, T., Bellucci, A., Castruccio, F., Gan, B.,
Putrasahan, D., Roberts, C. D., Van Roekel, L., and Zhang, Q.: Resolving and
Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models,
Current Climate Change Reports, 6, 137–152,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00164-w, 2020. a
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate Change 2013 – The
Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2014. a
Jullien, S., Marchesiello, P., Menkes, C. E., Lefèvre, J., Jourdain, N. C.,
Samson, G., and Lengaigne, M.: Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones:
climatology and processes, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2831–2854,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2096-6, 2014. a
Jullien, S., Masson, S., Oerder, V., Samson, G., Colas, F., and Renault, L.:
Impact of Ocean-Atmosphere Current Feedback on Ocean Mesoscale
Activity: Regional Variations and Sensitivity to Model
Resolution, J. Climate, 33, 2585–2602,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0484.1, 2020. a
Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M.: A One-Dimensional Entraining/Detraining Plume Model and Its Application in Convective Parameterization,
Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 47, 2784–2802,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Kendon, M., McCarthy, M., Jevrejeva, S., Matthews, A., and Legg, T.: State of
the UK climate 2018, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1–55,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6213, 2019. a, b
Le Boyer, A., Charria, G., Le Cann, B., Lazure, P., and Marié, L.:
Circulation on the shelf and the upper slope of the Bay of Biscay,
Cont. Shelf Res., 55, 97–107,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.01.006, 2013. a
Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Léger, F., Giordani, H., Beuvier, J., Bouin, M.,
Ducrocq, V., and Fourrié, N.: Dense water formation in the north‐western
Mediterranean area during HyMeX‐SOP2 in 1/36∘ ocean simulations:
Ocean‐atmosphere coupling impact, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 5749–5773, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012526, 2017. a, b, c, d
Leclair, M. and Madec, G.: A conservative leapfrog time stepping method, Ocean Model., 30, 88–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.06.006, 2009. a
Lellouche, J.-M., Greiner, E., Le Galloudec, O., Garric, G., Regnier, C., Drevillon, M., Benkiran, M., Testut, C.-E., Bourdalle-Badie, R., Gasparin, F., Hernandez, O., Levier, B., Drillet, Y., Remy, E., and Le Traon, P.-Y.: Recent updates to the Copernicus Marine Service global ocean monitoring and forecasting real-time 1∕12∘ high-resolution system, Ocean Sci., 14, 1093–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1093-2018, 2018. a
Lewis, H. W., Castillo Sanchez, J. M., Arnold, A., Fallmann, J., Saulter, A., Graham, J., Bush, M., Siddorn, J., Palmer, T., Lock, A., Edwards, J., Bricheno, L., Martínez-de la Torre, A., and Clark, J.: The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019. a
Liberato, M. L. R., Pinto, J. G., Trigo, R. M., Ludwig, P., Ordóñez, P., Yuen, D., and Trigo, I. F.: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013. a
Ličer, M., Smerkol, P., Fettich, A., Ravdas, M., Papapostolou, A., Mantziafou, A., Strajnar, B., Cedilnik, J., Jeromel, M., Jerman, J., Petan, S., Malačič, V., and Sofianos, S.: Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling, Ocean Sci., 12, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-71-2016, 2016. a
Léger, F., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Giordani, H., Arsouze, T., Beuvier, J.,
Bouin, M.-N., Bresson, E., Ducrocq, V., Fourrié, N., and Nuret, M.: Dense
water formation in the north-western Mediterranean area during HyMeX-SOP2 in
1/36∘ ocean simulations: Sensitivity to initial conditions, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 5549–5569,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011542, 2016. a
Ma, F., Yuan, X., Jiao, Y., and Ji, P.: Unprecedented Europe Heat in
June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087809, 2020. a
Madec, G., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Pierre-Antoine Bouttier, Bricaud, C.,
Bruciaferri, D., Calvert, D., Chanut, J., Clementi, E., Coward, A., Delrosso,
D., Ethé, C., Flavoni, S., Graham, T., Harle, J., Iovino, D., Lea, D.,
Lévy, C., Lovato, T., Martin, N., Masson, S., Mocavero, S., Paul, J.,
Rousset, C., Storkey, D., Storto, A., and Vancoppenolle, M.: NEMO ocean
engine, Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.1472492, 2017. a, b
Mandement, M. and Caumont, O.: A numerical study to investigate the roles of former Hurricane Leslie, orography and evaporative cooling in the 2018 Aude heavy-precipitation event, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021. a
Maraldi, C., Chanut, J., Levier, B., Ayoub, N., De Mey, P., Reffray, G., Lyard, F., Cailleau, S., Drévillon, M., Fanjul, E. A., Sotillo, M. G., Marsaleix, P., and the Mercator Research and Development Team: NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland configuration, Ocean Sci., 9, 745–771, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-745-2013, 2013. a
Masson, V.: A Physically-Based Scheme For The Urban Energy
Budget In Atmospheric Models, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 94,
357–397, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1002463829265, 2000. a
Masson, V., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., Faroux, S., Alias, A., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Barbu, A., Boone, A., Bouyssel, F., Brousseau, P., Brun, E., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Donier, S., Essaouini, K., Gibelin, A.-L., Giordani, H., Habets, F., Jidane, M., Kerdraon, G., Kourzeneva, E., Lafaysse, M., Lafont, S., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lemonsu, A., Mahfouf, J.-F., Marguinaud, P., Mokhtari, M., Morin, S., Pigeon, G., Salgado, R., Seity, Y., Taillefer, F., Tanguy, G., Tulet, P., Vincendon, B., Vionnet, V., and Voldoire, A.: The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013. a, b
Meehl, G. A.: Development of global coupled ocean-atmosphere general
circulation models, Clim. Dynam., 5, 19–33, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00195851,
1990. a
Meroni, A. N., Renault, L., Parodi, A., and Pasquero, C.: Role of the Oceanic
Vertical Thermal Structure in the Modulation of Heavy Precipitations Over the
Ligurian Sea, Pure App. Geophys., 175, 4111–4130,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-2002-y, 2018. a, b
Meurdesoif, Y.: XIOS, in: Second Workshop on Coupling Technologies for Earth System Models (CW2013), NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA,
http://forge.ipsl.jussieu.fr/ioserver/raw-attachment/wiki/WikiStart/XIOS-BOULDER.pdf (last access: 7 April 2022), 2013. a
Miglietta, M. M. and Rotunno, R.: Development mechanisms for Mediterranean
tropical-like cyclones (medicanes), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 1444–1460, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3503, 2019. a
Millot, C.: Mesoscale and seasonal variabilities of the circulation in the
western Mediterranean, Dyn. Atmos. Oc., 15, 179–214,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0265(91)90020-G, 1991. a
Millot, C. and Taupier-Letage, I.: Circulation in the Mediterranean Sea, in: The Mediterranean Sea, edited by: Saliot, A., Springer Berlin
Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 29–66, https://doi.org/10.1007/b107143, 2005. a
Millot, C., Taupier-Letage, I., and Benzohra, M.: The Algerian eddies,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 27, 203–219, https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-8252(90)90003-E,
1990. a
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.:
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated
correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 16663–16682, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237, 1997. a
Mogensen, K. S., Hewson, T., Keeley, S., and Magnusson, L.: Effects of ocean
coupling on weather forecasts, ECMWF newsletter, 6–7,
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/156/news/effects-ocean-coupling-weather-forecasts (last access: 7 April 2022), 2018. a
NEMO Community Ocean Model: https://www.nemo-ocean.eu/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Noilhan, J. and Planton, S.: A Simple Parameterization of Land Surface
Processes for Meteorological Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117,
536–549, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0536:ASPOLS>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Obermann, A., Bastin, S., Belamari, S., Conte, D., Gaertner, M. A., Li, L., and
Ahrens, B.: Mistral and Tramontane wind speed and wind direction patterns in
regional climate simulations, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1059–1076,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3053-3, 2018. a
Orain, F., Roquet, H., and Saux Picart, E.: European Near Real Time Level 3S
Sea Surface Temperature Product
SST_EUR_L3S_NRT_OBSERVATIONS_010_009_a, Quality Information Document
#1.6, Tech. rep., Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, 16 pp., https://catalogue.marine.copernicus.eu/documents/QUID/CMEMS-SST-QUID-010-009-a.pdf (last access: 7 April 2022), 2021. a
Pasch, R. J. and Roberts, D. P.: Hurricane Leslie, National
Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report, Tech. rep. AL132018, 18 pp.,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132018_Leslie.pdf(last access: 7 April 2022), 2019. a
Pellerin, P., Ritchie, H., Saucier, F. J., Roy, F., Desjardins, S., Valin, M.,
and Lee, V.: Impact of a Two-Way Coupling between an Atmospheric and an
Ocean-Ice Model over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Mon. Weather Rev., 132,
1379–1398, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1379:IOATCB>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Pianezze, J., Barthe, C., Bielli, S., Tulet, P., Jullien, S., Cambon, G.,
Bousquet, O., Claeys, M., and Cordier, E.: A New Coupled
Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm
Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013–2014) in the
South-West Indian Ocean, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 801–825, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001177, 2018. a
Pinty, J.-P. and Jabouille, P.: A mixed-phase cloud parameterization for use in a mesoscale non-hydrostatic model: simulations of a squall line and of
orographic precipitation, in: Proceedings of the AMS conference on cloud physics, Amer. Meteor. soc., Everett, WA, USA, 17–21 August 1998, 217–220,
http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/dir_publication/pinty_jabouille_ams_ccp1998.pdf,
1998. a
Pullen, J., Doyle, J. D., and Signell, R. P.: Two-way air-sea coupling: A
study of the Adriatic, Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1465–1483,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3137.1, 2006. a
Pullen, J., Allard, R., Seo, H., Miller, A. J., Chen, S., Pezzi, L. P., Smith,
T., Chu, P., Alves, J., and Caldeira, R.: Coupled ocean-atmosphere
forecasting at short and medium time scales, J. Mar. Res., 75, 877–921,
https://doi.org/10.1357/002224017823523991, 2017. a
Rainaud, R., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Ducrocq, V., Giordani, H., Nuret, M.,
Fourrié, N., Bouin, M.-N., Taupier-Letage, I., and Legain, D.:
Characterization of air–sea exchanges over the Western Mediterranean Sea
during HyMeX SOP1 using the AROME–WMED model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 173–187, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2480, 2016. a
Rainaud, R., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Ducrocq, V., and Giordani, H.:
High-resolution air-sea coupling impact on two heavy precipitation events in
the Western Mediterranean: Air-Sea Coupling Impact on Two
Mediterranean HPEs, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2448–2462, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3098, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f
Redelsperger, J.-L., Bouin, M.-N., Pianezze, J., Garnier, V., and Marié, L.:
Impact of a sharp, small-scale SST front on the marine atmospheric boundary
layer on the Iroise Sea: Analysis from a hectometric simulation, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 3692–3714, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3650, 2019. a
Renault, L., Lemarié, F., and Arsouze, T.: On the implementation and
consequences of the oceanic currents feedback in ocean–atmosphere coupled
models, Ocean Model., 141, 101423, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101423,
2019a. a
Renault, L., Marchesiello, P., Masson, S., and McWilliams, J. C.: Remarkable
Control of Western Boundary Currents by Eddy Killing , a
Mechanical Air‐Sea Coupling Process, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2743–2751, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081211, 2019b. a
Sauvage, C., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., and Bouin, M.-N.: Towards kilometer-scale ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled forecast: a case study on a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11857–11887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, 2021. a
Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Bénard, P., Bouttier, F.,
Lac, C., and Masson, V.: The AROME-France Convective-Scale
Operational Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 976–991,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3425.1, 2011. a
Shukla, J., Palmer, T. N., Hagedorn, R., Hoskins, B., Kinter, J., Marotzke, J.,
Miller, M., and Slingo, J.: Toward a New Generation of World Climate
Research and Computing Facilities, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1407–1412, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2900.1, 2010. a
Simpson, J. H., Bos, W. G., Schirmer, F., Souza, A. J., Rippeth, T. P., Jones,
S. E., and Hydes, D.: Periodic stratification in the rhine ROFI in the
north-sea, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00099/21050/ (last access: 7 April 2022), 1993. a
Small, R., Carniel, S., Campbell, T., Teixeira, J., and Allard, R.: The
response of the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian Seas to a summer Mistral event: A
coupled atmosphere–ocean approach, Ocean Model., 48, 30–44,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.02.003, 2012. a
Small, R. J., Campbell, T., Teixeira, J., Carniel, S., Smith, T. A., Dykes, J.,
Chen, S., and Allard, R.: Air-Sea Interaction in the Ligurian Sea:
Assessment of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Using In Situ Data from
LASIE07, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1785–1808,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3431.1, 2011. a
Smith, R. K., Montgomery, M. T., and Van Sang, N.: Tropical cyclone spin-up
revisited, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135,
1321–1335, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.428, 2009. a
Sotillo, M. G., Cailleau, S., Lorente, P., Levier, B., Aznar, R., Reffray, G.,
Amo-Baladron, A., Chanut, J., Benkiran, M., and Alvarez-Fanjul, E.: The
MyOcean IBI Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis Systems: operational products and
roadmap to the future Copernicus Service, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8, 63–79, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1014663, 2015. a, b
Sotillo, M. G., Levier, B., Lorente, P., Guihou, K., Aznar, R., Amo, A., Aouf,
L., and Ghantous, M.: Quality information document for Atlantic -Iberian
Biscay Irish-Ocean Physics Analysis and Forecasting Product
(CMEMS-IBI-QUID-005-001), Copernicus Marine Environment
Monitoring Service, Tech. rep., 120 pp., https://catalogue.marine.copernicus.eu/documents/QUID/CMEMS-IBI-QUID-005-001.pdf,
2021. a, b, c, d
Stockdale, T. N., Anderson, D. L. T., Alves, J. O. S., and Balmaseda, M. A.:
Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model,
Nature, 392, 370–373, https://doi.org/10.1038/32861, 1998. a
SURFEX: https://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Szekely, T., Gourrion, J., Pouliquen, S., and Reverdin, G.: The CORA 5.2 dataset for global in situ temperature and salinity measurements: data description and validation, Ocean Sci., 15, 1601–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1601-2019, 2019. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B.,
Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Schulz, W.: A Climatology
of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources,
J. Climate, 32, 1813–1837, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1, 2019. a
Taylor, J. P., Edwards, J. M., Glew, M. D., Hignett, P., and Slingo, A.:
Studies with a flexible new radiation code. II: Comparisons with aircraft
short-wave observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 839–861, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712253204, 1996. a
Testor, P., Bosse, A., Houpert, L., Margirier, F., Mortier, L., Legoff, H.,
Dausse, D., Labaste, M., Karstensen, J., Hayes, D., Olita, A., Ribotti, A.,
Schroeder, K., Chiggiato, J., Onken, R., Heslop, E., Mourre, B., D'ortenzio,
F., Mayot, N., Lavigne, H., de Fommervault, O., Coppola, L., Prieur, L.,
Taillandier, V., Durrieu de Madron, X., Bourrin, F., Many, G., Damien, P.,
Estournel, C., Marsaleix, P., Taupier-Letage, I., Raimbault, P., Waldman, R.,
Bouin, M.-N., Giordani, H., Caniaux, G., Somot, S., Ducrocq, V., and Conan,
P.: Multiscale Observations of Deep Convection in the Northwestern
Mediterranean Sea During Winter 2012–2013 Using Multiple Platforms, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 1745–1776, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012671,
2018. a
The Oasis Coupler: https://oasis.cerfacs.fr/en/, last access: 7 April 2022. a
Thompson, B., Sanchez, C., Heng, B. C. P., Kumar, R., Liu, J., Huang, X.-Y., and Tkalich, P.: Development of a MetUM (v 11.1) and NEMO (v 3.6) coupled operational forecast model for the Maritime Continent – Part 1: Evaluation of ocean forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1081–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1081-2021, 2021. a
Trigo, I. F.: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the
Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses,
Clim. Dynam., 26, 127–143, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9, 2006. a
Trigo, I. F., Bigg, G. R., and Davies, T. D.: Climatology of Cyclogenesis
Mechanisms in the Mediterranean, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 549–569,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0549:COCMIT>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Umlauf, L. and Burchard, H.: A generic length-scale equation for geophysical
turbulence models, J. Mar. Res., 61, 235–265,
https://doi.org/10.1357/002224003322005087, 2003. a
Umlauf, L. and Burchard, H.: Second-order turbulence closure models for
geophysical boundary layers. A review of recent work, Cont. Shelf Res., 25, 795–827, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.08.004, 2005. a
Valcke, S.: The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013, 2013. a, b
van Aken, H. M.: Surface currents in the Bay of Biscay as observed with
drifters between 1995 and 1999, Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic
Research Papers, 49, 1071–1086,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0637(02)00017-1, 2002. a
Vilibić, I., Mihanović, H., Janeković, I., Denamiel, C., Poulain, P.-M., Orlić, M., Dunić, N., Dadić, V., Pasarić, M., Muslim, S., Gerin, R., Matić, F., Šepić, J., Mauri, E., Kokkini, Z., Tudor, M., Kovač, Ž., and Džoić, T.: Wintertime dynamics in the coastal northeastern Adriatic Sea: the NAdEx 2015 experiment, Ocean Sci., 14, 237–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-237-2018, 2018. a
Viúdez, A., Pinot, J.-M., and Haney, R. L.: On the upper layer circulation in
the Alboran Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103,
21653–21666, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC01082, 1998. a
Voldoire, A., Decharme, B., Pianezze, J., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Sevault, F., Seyfried, L., Garnier, V., Bielli, S., Valcke, S., Alias, A., Accensi, M., Ardhuin, F., Bouin, M.-N., Ducrocq, V., Faroux, S., Giordani, H., Léger, F., Marsaleix, P., Rainaud, R., Redelsperger, J.-L., Richard, E., and Riette, S.: SURFEX v8.0 interface with OASIS3-MCT to couple atmosphere with hydrology, ocean, waves and sea-ice models, from coastal to global scales, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017.
a, b
Warner, J. C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J. B.: Development of a
Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling
System, Ocean Model., 35, 230–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.07.010,
2010. a
Weusthoff, T., Ament, F., Arpagaus, M., and Rotach, M. W.: Assessing the
Benefits of Convection-Permitting Models by Neighborhood
Verification: Examples from MAP D-PHASE, Mon. Weather Rev.,
138, 3418–3433, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3380.1, 2010. a
Yelekçi, O., Charria, G., Capet, X., Reverdin, G., Sudre, J., and Yahia, H.:
Spatial and seasonal distributions of frontal activity over the French
continental shelf in the Bay of Biscay, Cont. Shelf Res., 144,
65–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2017.06.015, 2017. a
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint