Simulations of the 2005, 1910, and 1876 Vb  cyclones over the Alps – sensitivity  to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux

Stucki, Peter; Froidevaux, Paul; Zamuriano, Marcelo; Isotta, Francesco Alessandro; Messmer, Martina; Martynov, Andrey

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 1

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, 2020

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, 2020

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 1

Research article 07 Jan 2020

Research article | 07 Jan 2020

Simulations of the 2005, 1910, and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux

Peter Stucki et al.

Data sets

WRF Users Page WRF Downloads WRF Downloads UCAR https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/downloads.html

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project ESRL https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/

The International Surface Pressure Databank version 3, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research G. P. Compo, J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, R. J. Allan, C. McColl, X. Yin, R. S. Vose, N. Matsui, L. Ashcroft, R. Auchmann, M. Benoy, P. Bessemoulin, T. Brandsma, P. Brohan, M. Brunet, J. Comeaux, T. A. Cram, R. Crouthamel, P. Y. Groisman, H. Hersbach, P. D. Jones, T. Jonsson, S. Jourdain, G. Kelly, K. R. Knapp, A. Kruger, H. Kubota, G. Lentini, A. Lorrey, N. Lott, S. J. Lubker, J. Luterbacher, G. J. Marshall, M. Maugeri, C. J. Mock, H. Y. Mok, O. Nordli, R. Przybylak, M. J. Rodwell, T. F. Ross, D. Schuster, L. Srnec, M. A. Valente, Z. Vizi, X. L. Wang, N. Westcott, J. S. Woollen, and S. J. Worley https://doi.org/10.5065/D6D50K29

20th Century Reanalysis Project Ensemble Gateway NERSC https://portal.nersc.gov/project/20C_Reanalysis

Browse reanalysis datasets ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets

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Short summary

In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.