Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jan 2020
Research article |
| 14 Jan 2020
| 14 Jan 2020
Construction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala
Global Geoscience, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, NG12 5GG, UK
Bruce D. Malamud
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, WC2B 4BG,
UK
Edy Manolo Barillas
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Guatemala
City, Guatemala
Alex Guerra Noriega
Instituto Privado de Investigación sobre Cambio Climático,
Guatemala City, Guatemala
Related authors
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a methodology to systematically gather evidence of the breadth of single natural hazards and their multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings. We apply this methodology to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where we find evidence of 21 single hazard types, and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships. This evidence is supplemented with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction research and practice in Kathmandu Valley.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
Lakshmi S. Gopal, Rekha Prabha, Hemalatha Thirugnanam, Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We critically reviewed 250 articles from 2010 to 2023, analysed how social media is used to manage disasters, and developed the Social Media Literature Database. We summarise the methods used for data collection and filtering. Key findings include the widespread use of the latest technologies to handle data, proficiency in spatiotemporal analysis, and gaps in community interaction and resource identification. We also propose best practices for using social media to enhance disaster management.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a methodology to systematically gather evidence of the breadth of single natural hazards and their multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings. We apply this methodology to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where we find evidence of 21 single hazard types, and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships. This evidence is supplemented with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction research and practice in Kathmandu Valley.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Compound hazards occur when two different natural hazards impact the same time period and spatial area. This article presents a methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards (SI–CH). The methodology is applied to compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain for the period 1979–2019. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent their spatial and temporal properties.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Faith E. Taylor, Paolo Tarolli, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2585–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, 2020
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, Hugo Winter, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2091–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating risks induced by interacting natural hazards remains a challenge for practitioners. An approach to tackle this challenge is to use multivariate statistical models. Here we evaluate the efficacy of six models. The models are compared against synthetic data which are comparable to time series of environmental variables. We find which models are more appropriate to estimate relations between hazards in a range of cases. We highlight the benefits of this approach with two examples.
Annette Witt, Bruce D. Malamud, Clara Mangili, and Achim Brauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5547–5581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a unique 9.5 m palaeo-lacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over a period of 10 000 years in the Piànico–Sèllere basin (southern Alps) during an interglacial period in the Pleistocene (sometime between 400 000 and 800 000 years ago). We analyse the palaeoflood series correlation, clustering, and cyclicity properties, finding a long-range cyclicity with a period of about 2030 years superimposed onto a fractional noise.
Bruce D. Malamud, Donald L. Turcotte, and Harold E. Brooks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2823–2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for the spatial–temporal cluster analysis of severe tornado touchdowns that are part of tornado outbreaks. Tornado outbreaks, groups of tornadoes occurring close to each other in time and space, constitute a severe hazard that has few quantitative measures. Our new approach, which we illustrate using three USA severe tornado outbreaks and models, differentiates between types of tornado outbreaks and, within outbreaks, identifies clusters in both time and space.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Always on My Mind: Indications of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among Those Affected by the 2021 Flood Event in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
An Impact Chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics. The multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Brief communication: Storm Daniel Flood Impact in Greece 2023: Mapping Crop and Livestock Exposure from SAR
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Brief communication: lessons learnt and experienced gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to droughts
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Earthquake insurance in Iran: Solvency of local insurers in light of the current market practice
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health impacts are a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed 28 % showing signs of posttraumatic stress disorder one year later. Risk factors Include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results, which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Other as expected, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important as the safety from floods.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
~820 km2 of agricultural land is inundated in central Greece due to storm Daniel flood. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimated more than 14,000 ornithoids and 21,500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Adelaide Cassia Nardocci, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Michael Jacobson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of the surveys, to help further research.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers has been offering earthquake cover since 1990's. However, despite international best practices they do not still use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to continue accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practice with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modelling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Cited articles
Alvarado, G. E., Soto, G. J., Pullinger, C. R., Escobar, R., Bonis, S.,
Escobar, D., and Navarro, M.: Volcanic Activity, Hazards and Monitoring, in:
Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, UK, 1155–1188, 2007.
Antonelli, C.: Collective knowledge communication and innovation: the evidence of technological districts, Reg. Stud., 34, 535–547,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400050085657, 2000.
ARMONIA – Applied multi Risk Mapping of Natural Hazards for Impact
Assessment: Assessing and mapping multiple risks for spatial planning,
European Union 6th Framework Programme Reports, European Union, available at: https://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc-air-climate/library/public/2010_citiesproject/interchange/armonia_project (last access: 9 December 2019), 2007.
Bommer, J. J. and Rodríguez, C. E.: Earthquake-induced landslides in Central America, Eng. Geol., 63, 189–220, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00081-3, 2002.
Brown, S. K., Sparks, R. S. J., Mee, K., Vye-Brown, C., Ilyinskaya, E., Jenkins, S. F., and Loughlin, S. C.: Country and regional profiles of volcanic hazard and risk (Appendix B), in: Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, edited by: Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.030, 2015.
Bucknam, R. C., Coe, J. A., Chavarría, M. M., Godt, J. W., Tarr, A. C.,
Bradley, L. A., Rafferty, S., Hancock, D., Dart, R. L., and Johnson, M. L.:
Landslides triggered by hurricane Mitch in Guatemala: Inventory and
discussion, US Geological Survey Open File Report 01-443, US Department of
the Interior, USA, p. 38, 2001.
Budimir, M. E. A., Atkinson, P. M., and Lewis, H. G.: Earthquake-and-landslide events are associated with more fatalities than
earthquakes alone, Nat. Hazards, 72, 895–914, 2014.
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft/United Nations University: World Risk Report 2017, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Berlin, p. 48, 2017.
Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E. (Eds.): Central America Geology, Resources and Hazards (Two Volume Set), Taylor and Francis, London, UK, p. 1131, 2007.
Cahoon, D. R. and Hensel, P.: Hurricane Mitch: a regional perspective on
mangrove damage, recovery and sustainability, USGS Open File Report 03-183,
US Geological Survey, USA, p. 31, 2002
Carrara, A., Crosta, G., and Frattini, P.: Geomorphological and historical
data in assessing landslide hazard, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 28, 1125–1142, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.545, 2003.
Charvériat, C.: Natural Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean: An
Overview of Risk, Working Paper, Inter-American Development Bank, Research
Department, No. 364, available at:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract id=1817233 (last access: 29 November 2018), 2000.
Choine, M. N., O'Connor, A., Gehl, P., D'Ayala, D., García-Fernández, M., Jiménez, M. J., Gavin, K., Van Gelder, P., Salceda, T., and Power, R.: A multi hazard risk assessment methodology accounting for cascading hazard events, in: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP12, 12–15 July 2015, Vancouver, Canada, available at: https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/53032/items/1.0076192
(last access: 29 November 2018), 2015.
CIA – Central Intelligence Agency: Guatemala Physiography, available at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/cia-maps-publications/Guatemala.html
(last access: 29 November 2018), 2001.
Ciurean, R., Gill, J. C., Reeves, H., O'Grady, S. K., Donald, K., and
Aldridge, T.: Review of multi-hazards research and risk assessments, British
Geological Survey Engineering Geology & Infrastructure Programme, Open
Report OR/18/057, British Geological Survey, UK, 2018.
Claxton, R. H.: Weather-based Hazards in Colonial Guatemala, Stud. Social Sci., 25, 139–163, 1986.
CONRED – Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres: home page, available at: https://conred.gob.gt/site/index.php (last access: 29 November 2018), 2018a.
CONRED – Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres:
Boletínes Informativos, available at: https://conred.gob.gt/site/Boletines-Informativos (last access: 19 November 2018), 2018b.
Cooper, A. H. and Calow, R. C.: Avoiding gypsum geohazards: guidance for
planning and construction, British Geological Survey, Technical Report WC/98/5, UK NG125GG, available at:
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/14146/1/Cooper_Callow_1998_DIFID_Gypsum_and_planning_WC_98_005_COL.pdf (last access: 29 November 2018), 1998.
CRED – Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters: EM-DAT: The
International Disaster Database, available at: https://www.emdat.be/database, last access: 29 November 2018.
De Pippo, T., Donadio, C., Pennetta, M., Petrosino, C., Terlizzi, F., and
Valente, A.: Coastal hazard assessment and mapping in Northern Campania, Italy, Geomorphology, 97, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.08.015, 2008.
de Ruiter, M. C., Couasnon, A., van den Homberg, M., Ward, P., and Daniell, J. E.: How Do Consecutive Disasters Affect Damages and the Post-Disaster
Recovery Process?, in: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 10–14 December 2018, Washington, D.C., USA, December 2018.
DesInventar: Guatemala, available at:
http://www.desinventar.net/DesInventar/profiletab.jsp#more_info (last access: 29 November 2018), 2016.
DiCicco-Bloom, B. and Crabtree, B. F.: The qualitative research interview,
Medical Educ., 40, 314–321, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2929.2006.02418.x, 2006.
Duncan, M., Edwards, S., Kilburn, C., and Twigg, J.: An interrelated hazards
approach to anticipating evolving risk, in: The Making of a Riskier Future: How Our Decisions Are Shaping Future Disaster Risk, Global Facility, GFDRR, Washington, D.C., USA, 2016.
Ebmeier, S. K., Biggs, J., Mather, T. A., Elliott, J. R., Wadge, G., and Amelung, F.: Measuring large topographic change with InSAR: Lava thicknesses, extrusion rate and subsidence rate at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 335, 216–225, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.027, 2012.
Edwards, R.: A critical examination of the use of interpreters in the
qualitative research process, J. Ethnic Migrat. Stud., 24, 197–208, https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.1998.9976626, 1998.
Espinosa, A. F. (Ed.): The Guatemalan earthquake of February 4, 1976: A preliminary report, US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1002, US Government Printing Office, USA, 1976.
Fernández, M. and Ortiz, M.: Earthquake triggered tsunamis, in: Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, UK, 1257–1265, 2007.
Fisher, K. T.: Positionality, subjectivity, and race in transnational and
transcultural geographical research, Gender Place Cult., 22, 456–473, https://doi.org/10.1080/0966369X.2013.879097, 2015.
Foray, D.: Characterising the knowledge base: available and missing indicators, in: Knowledge management in the learning society, OECD, Paris, France, 239–255, 2000.
Gill, J. C.: Increasing the Understanding and Characterisation of Natural
Hazard Interactions, Doctoral Thesis, King's College, London, 2016.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 52, 680–722, 2014.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016.
Gill, J. C., and Malamud, B. D.: Anthropogenic processes, natural hazards, and interactions in a multi-hazard framework, Earth-Sci. Rev., 166, 246–269, 2017.
Glade, T.: Landslide occurrence as a response to land use change: a review of evidence from New Zealand, Catena, 51, 297–314, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0341-8162(02)00170-4, 2003.
Global Volcanism Program: Volcanoes of the World, available at:
http://volcano.si.edu/ (last access: 29 November 2018), 2013.
Guzzetti, F., Cardinali, M., and Reichenbach, P.: The AVI project: a
bibliographical and archive inventory of landslides and floods in Italy, Environ. Manage., 18, 623–633, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02400865, 1994.
Han, J., Wu, S., and Wang, H.: Preliminary study on geological hazard chains, Earth Sci. Front., 14, 11–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1872-5791(08)60001-9, 2007.
Harp, E. L., Wilson, R. C., and Wieczorek, G. F.: Landslides from the February 4, 1976, Guatemala earthquake, US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1204-A, US Government Printing Office, USA, 1981.
Havenith, H.-B., Strom, A., Jongmans, D., Abdrakhmatov, A., Delvaux, D., and Tréfois, P.: Seismic triggering of landslides, Part A: Field evidence from the Northern Tien Shan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 135–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-135-2003, 2003.
Hermosilla, R. G.: The Guatemala City sinkhole collapses, Carbon. Evapor., 27, 103–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13146-011-0074-1, 2012
Hodell, D. A., Brenner, M., Curtis, J. H., and Guilderson, T.: Solar forcing
of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands, Science, 292, 1367–1370,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1057759, 2001.
Hunt, R. E.: Geotechnical Engineering Investigation Handbook, CRC Press, Florida, USA, p. 1088, 2005.
Ibsen, M. L. and Brunsden, D.: The nature, use and problems of historical
archives for the temporal occurrence of landslides, with specific reference
to the south coast of Britain, Ventnor, Isle of Wight, Geomorphology, 15,
241–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-555X(95)00073-E, 1996.
IFFN – International Forest Fire News: Fire Situation in Guatemala, available at: http://www2.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/country/gt/gt_1_eng.htm (last access: 29 November 2018), 2002.
INSIVUMEH – Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología,
Meteorología e Hidrología/National Institute for Seismology,
Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology: Home page, available at: http://insivumeh.gob.gt/, last access: 29 November 2018.
Johnson, J. B. and Lees, J. M.: Sound produced by the rapidly inflating Santiaguito lava dome, Guatemala, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045217, 2010.
Johnson, J. B., Lees, J. M., Gerst, A., Sahagian, D., and Varley, N.: Long-period earthquakes and co-eruptive dome inflation seen with particle image velocimetry, Nature, 456, 377–381, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07429, 2008.
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., and Glade, T.: From Single- to Multi-Hazard Risk
Analyses: a concept addressing emerging challenges, in: Mountain Risks: Bringing Science to Society, edited by: Malet, J. P., Glade, T., and Casagli, N., CERG Editions, Strasbourg, France, 351–356, 2010.
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., and Glade, T.: Challenges of
analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review, Nat. Hazards, 64, 1925–1958, 2012.
Kaufmann, O., Deceuster, J., and Quinif, Y.: An electrical resistivity
imaging-based strategy to enable site-scale planning over covered
palaeokarst features in the Tournaisis area (Belgium), Eng. Geol., 133, 49–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.01.017, 2012.
Kitchin, R. and Tate, N. J.: Conducting research into human geography, in:
Theory, Methodology and Practice, Pearson Education Limited, Harlow, UK, p. 330, 2000.
Knapen, A., Kitutu, M. G., Poesen, J., Breugelmans, W., Deckers, J., and
Muwanga, A.: Landslides in a densely populated county at the footslopes of
Mount Elgon (Uganda): characteristics and causal factors, Geomorphology,
73, 149–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2005.07.004, 2006.
Kreft, S., Eckstein, D., Dorsch, L., and Fischer, L.: Global Climate Risk
Index 2016: Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related
Loss Events in 2014 and 1995 to 2014, available at:
http://germanwatch.org/fr/download/13503.pdf (last access: 29 November 2018), 2015.
Kueny, J. A. and Day, M. J.: Designation of protected karstlands in Central
America: a regional assessment, J. Cave Karst Stud., 64, 165–174, 2002.
LAHT – Latin American Herald Tribune: Guatemala to Deliver Food to 170,000 Families Affected by Heatwave, available at:
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2347276andCategoryId=23558
(last access: 29 November 2018), 2014.
Lindholm, C. D., Climent, A., Camacho, E., Strauch, W., Cepeda, J.,
Cáceras, D., Ligorría, J. P., and Bungum, H.: Seismic hazard and
microzonation, in: Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, 1099–1118, 2007.
Liu, B., Siu, Y. L., and Mitchell, G.: Hazard interaction analysis for
multi-hazard risk assessment: a systematic classification based on
hazard-forming environment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 629–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-629-2016, 2016.
Longhurst, R.: Semi-structured interviews and focus groups, in: Key Methods in Geography, edited by: Clifford, N. J. and Valentine, G., SAGE Publications, London, 117–132, 2003.
Luna, B.: Assessment and Modeling of two Lahars caused by `Hurricane Stan'
at Atitlan, Guatemala, October 2005, Doctoral dissertation, MSc. Thesis,
University of Oslo, Oslo, available at:
https://www.duo.uio.no/handle/10852/12448 (last access: 29 November 2018), 2007.
MacDougall, C.,and Fudge, E.: Planning and recruiting the sample for focus
groups and in-depth interviews, Qual. Health Res., 11, 117–126, 2001.
Madge, C.: Boundary disputes: comments on Sidaway (1992), Area, 25, 294–299, 1993.
MAGA – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y Alimentación:
Frost/Ice Hazard Map, Guatemala, 2002.
MAGA/PEDN – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y Alimentación/Programa de Emergencia por Desastres Naturales: Soil Types
Map, Guatemala, 2002a.
MAGA/PEDN – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y
Alimentación/Programa de Emergencia por Desastres Naturales: Annual
Average Precipitation Map, Guatemala, 2002b.
Mahood, Q., Van Eerd, D., and Irvin, E.: Searching for grey literature for
systematic reviews: challenges and benefits, Res. Synthes. Meth., 5, 221–234, 2014.
Matthews, B. W.: Comparison of the predicted and observed secondary structure of T4 phage lysozyme, Biochimica et Biophysica Acta (BBA)-Protein Structure, 405, 442–451, https://doi.org/10.1016/0005-2795(75)90109-9, 1975.
McGuire, B. and Maslin, M. A. (Eds.): Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards, Wiley-Blackwell, West Sussex, UK, p. 311, 2012.
Merriam, S. B., Johnson-Bailey, J., Lee, M. Y., Kee, Y., Ntseane, G., and
Muhamad, M.: Power and positionality: Negotiating insider/outsider status
within and across cultures, Int. J. Lifelong Educ., 20, 405–416, https://doi.org/10.1080/02601370120490, 2001.
Mignan, A., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The quantification of
low-probability–high-consequences events: Part I. A generic multi-risk
approach, Nat. Hazards, 73, 1999–2022, 2014.
Moeller, S. D.: Regarding the Pain of Others: Media, Bias and the Coverage
of International Disasters, J. Int. Affairs, 59, 173–196, 2006.
Moreno, A. R.: Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers,
effects, and policies, Reg. Environ. Change, 6, 157–164,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-006-0015-z, 2006.
NASA – National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Patterns of Lightning
Activity, available at:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=6679andeocn=imageandeoci=related_image (last access: 29 November 2018), 2006.
Neri, A., Aspinall, W. P., Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., Andronico, D., Barsotti, S., Cole, P. D., Espoti-Ongaro, T., Hincks, T. K., Macedonio, G., Papale, P., Rosi, M., Santacroce, R., and Woo, G.: Developing an event tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at
Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 397–415, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.014, 2008.
Neri, M., Le Cozannet, G., Thierry, P., Bignami, C., and Ruch, J.: A method
for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from
Kanlaon (Philippines), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013, 2013.
Owen, L. A., Kamp, U., Khattak, G. A., Harp, E. L., Keefer, D. K., and Bauer, M. A.: Landslides triggered by the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake,
Geomorphology, 94, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.04.007, 2008.
Palinkas, L. A., Horwitz, S. M., Green, C. A., Wisdom, J. P., Duan, N., and
Hoagwood, K.: Purposeful sampling for qualitative data collection and analysis in mixed method implementation research, in: Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research, Vol. 42, Springer, 533–544, 2015.
Paton, D., Smith, L., Daly, M., and Johnston, D.: Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 179–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.026, 2008.
Pescaroli, G. andAlexander, D.: Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Anal., 38, 2245–2257, 2018.
Pielke Jr., R. A., Rubiera, J., Landsea, C., Fernández, M. L., and Klein,
R.: Hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean: Normalized
damage and loss potentials, Nat. Hazards Rev., 4, 101–114,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:3(101), 2003.
Plafker, G., Bonilla, M. G., and Bonis, S. B.: Geologic Effects, in: The Guatemalan earthquake of February 4, 1976: A preliminary report, edited by: Espinosa, A. F., US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1002, US Government Printing Office, USA, 38–51, 1976.
Porfido, S., Esposito, E., Spiga, E., Sacchi, M., Molisso, F., and Mazzola, S.: Re-evaluation of the 1976 Guatemala earthquake taking into account the
environmental effects, in: 11th EGU General Assembly, 27 April–2 May 2014, Vienna, Austria, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 16, EGU2014-6525, 2014.
Porfido, S., Esposito, E., Spiga, E., Sacchi, M., Molisso, F., and Mazzola, S.: Impact of Ground Effects for an Appropriate Mitigation Strategy in Seismic Area: The Example of Guatemala 1976 Earthquake, in: Engineering Geology for Society and Territory-Volume 2 (Landslide Processes), edited by: Lollino, G., Giordan, D., Crosta, G. B., Corominas, J., Azzam, R., Wasowski, J., and Sciarra, N., Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, 703–708, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_117, 2015.
Powers, D. M. W.: Evaluation: from Precision, Recall and F-measure to ROC,
Informedness, Markedness and Correlation, J. Mach. Learn. Technol., 2, 37–63, 2011.
Qu, S. Q. and Dumay, J.: The qualitative research interview, Qual. Res. Account. Manage., 8, 238–264, https://doi.org/10.1108/11766091111162070, 2011.
Raška, P., Zábranský, V., Dubišar, J., Kadlec, A.,
Hrbáčová, A., and Strnad, T.: Documentary proxies and
interdisciplinary research on historic geomorphologic hazards: a discussion of the current state from a central European perspective, Nat. Hazards, 70, 705–732, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0839-z, 2014.
ReliefWeb: Guatemala Boletínes Informativos, available at:
http://reliefweb.int/updates?search=Boletin informativos (last access: 29 November 2018), 2016.
ReliefWeb: Situation Reports for Central America following Tropical Storm
Nate, available online:
https://reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2017-000148-nic/thumb, last access: 29 November 2018.
Rodríguez, C.E.: Earthquake-induced landslides, in: Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and
Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, 1217–1255, 2007.
Rose, W. I., Bommer, J. J., Lopez, D. L., Carr, M. J., and Major, J. J. (Eds.): Natural hazards in El Salvador, in: Vol. 375, Geological Society of America, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2004.
Satarugsa, P.: The Lessons Learnt from Geophysical Investigation of Sinkholes in Rock Salt in Thailand, in: International Conference on Geology, Geotechnology and Mineral Resources of Indochina (GEOINDO 2011), 1–3 December 2011, Khon Kaen, Thailand, available at:
http://home.kku.ac.th/peangta/peangta-final-sinkhole2011.pdf (last access: 29 November 2018), 2011.
Schneider, S. C. and Barsoux, J. L.: Managing across cultures, Pearson
Education, Harlow, England, p. 352, 2002.
Schuster, R. L., Bucknam, R. C., and Mota, M. A.: Stability assessment of a
Hurricane Mitch-induced landslide dam on the Rio La Lima, Sierra de Las Minas, eastern Guatemala, Open File Report 01-120, US Geological Survey, US Department of the Interior, USA, 2001.
Scolobig, A., Nadejda, K., and Arnaud, M.: Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy, Geosciences, 7, 1–18, 2017.
Seed, H. B., Arango, I., Gomez-Masso, A., Ascoli, R. G., and Chan, C.:
Earthquake-induced liquefaction near lake Amatitlan, Guatemala, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 107, 501–518, 1981.
Siebert, L., Alvarado, G. E., Vallance, J. W., and De Vries, B. V. W.:
Large-volume volcanic edifice failures in Central America and associated
hazards, Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap., 412, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1130/2006.2412(01), 2006.
Soto, A. J., Rodhe, A., Pohjola, V., and Boelhouwers, J.: Spatial distribution of disasters caused by natural hazards in the Samala River
catchment, Guatemala, Geograf. Ann. A, 97, 181–196, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12097, 2015.
Squires, A.: Methodological challenges in cross-language qualitative research: a research review, Int. J. Nurs. Stud., 46, 277–287, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2008.08.006, 2009.
Stewart, S. R.: Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes 2010 – Flooding in a Slow
Season, Weatherwise, 64, 38–45, https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.2011.566819, 2011.
Stewart, S. R. and Cangialosi, J. P.: Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 2769–2781, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00152.1, 2012.
Sultana, F.: Reflexivity, positionality and participatory ethics: Negotiating fieldwork dilemmas in international research, ACME, 6, 374–385, 2007.
Suri, H.: Purposeful sampling in qualitative research synthesis, Qual. Res. J., 11, 63–75, 2011.
Tappin, D. R.: Submarine mass failures as tsunami sources: their climate control, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 368, 2417–2434, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0079, 2010.
Tarvainen, T., Jarva, J., and Greiving, S.: Spatial pattern of hazards and
hazard interactions in Europe, in: Natural and Technological Hazards and Risks Affecting the Spatial Development of European Regions, 42, edited by: Schmidt-Thomé, P., Geological Survey of Finland, Finland, 83–91, 2006.
Taylor, F. E., Malamud, B. D., Freeborough, K., and Demeritt, D.: Enriching
Great Britain's National Landslide Database by searching newspaper archives,
Geomorphology, 249, 52–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.05.019, 2015.
Temple, B. and Edwards, R.: Interpreters/translators and cross-language
research: Reflexivity and border crossings, Int. J. Qual. Meth., 1, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1177/160940690200100201, 2002.
Temple, B. and Young, A.: Qualitative research and translation dilemmas, Qual. Res., 4, 161–178, https://doi.org/10.1177/1468794104044430, 2004.
Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., Winter, H., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships, Earth-Sci. Rev., 196, 102881, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102881, 2019.
Tobin, G. A. and Montz, B. E.: Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration, Guilford Press, New York, 1997.
Trimble, S. W.: The use of historical data and artifacts in geomorphology,
Prog. Phys. Geogr., 32, 3–29, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133308089495, 2008.
UNDRR – United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: Sendai Framework
for Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations, Geneva, p. 37, 2015.
UNDRR – United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: DRR Terminology,
available at: https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology (last access: 29 November 2018), 2017.
Valentine, G.: Tell me about … using interviews as a research
methodology, in: Methods in human geography: A guide for students doing a research project, edited by: Flowerdew, R. and Martin, D., Prentice Hall,
Harlow, UK, 110–126, 1997.
van Westen, C. J., Kappes, M. S., Luna, B. Q., Frigerio, S., Glade, T., and
Malet, J.-P.: Medium-scale multi-hazard risk assessment of gravitational
processes, in: Mountain risks: from prediction to management and governance, edited by: van Asch, T., Corominas, J., Greiving, S., Malet, J.-P., and
Sterlacchini, S., Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 201–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6769-0_7, 2014.
von Huene, R., Ranero, C. R., and Watts, P.: Tsunamigenic slope failure along
the Middle America Trench in two tectonic settings, Mar. Geol., 203, 303–317, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00312-8, 2004.
Welle, T., Birkmann, J., Rhyner, J., Witting, M., and Wolfertz, J.: World
Risk Index 2013, in: World Risk Report 2013, edited by: Jeschonnek, L., Alliance Development Works, Berlin, Germany, 45–56, 2013.
World Bank: Precipitation in Guatemala 1900–2012, available at:
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm?page=country_historical_climateandThisRegion=North AmericaandThisCCode=GTM# (last access: 29 November 2018), 2016.
Short summary
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint