Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jan 2020
Research article |
| 14 Jan 2020
| 14 Jan 2020
Construction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala
Global Geoscience, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, NG12 5GG, UK
Bruce D. Malamud
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, WC2B 4BG,
UK
Edy Manolo Barillas
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Guatemala
City, Guatemala
Alex Guerra Noriega
Instituto Privado de Investigación sobre Cambio Climático,
Guatemala City, Guatemala
Related authors
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 353–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology to compile single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings, which we apply to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Using blended sources, we collate evidence of 21 single natural hazard types and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships that could impact the Kathmandu Valley. We supplement these exemplars with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders, emphasising the need for inclusive disaster preparedness and response approaches.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Hedieh Soltanpour, Kamal Serrhini, Joel C. Gill, Sven Fuchs, and Solmaz Mohadjer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We applied the Maximum Entropy model to characterize multi-hazard scenarios in karst environments, focusing on flood-triggered sinkholes in Val d'Orléans, France. Karst terrains as multi-hazard forming areas, have received little attention in multi-hazard literature. Our study developed a multi-hazard susceptibility map to forecast the spatial distribution of these hazards. The findings improve understanding of hazard interactions and demonstrate the model's utility in multi-hazard analysis.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 353–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology to compile single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings, which we apply to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Using blended sources, we collate evidence of 21 single natural hazard types and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships that could impact the Kathmandu Valley. We supplement these exemplars with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders, emphasising the need for inclusive disaster preparedness and response approaches.
Uldis Zandovskis, Davide Pigoli, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2733, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks at how lightning strikes happen over time and space, focusing on six storms in the UK during 2012 and 2015. By using real data, the research examines how often lightning strikes occur, how fast the storms move, and how far the strikes spread. The storms had different speeds (47–111 km/h) and times between strikes (0.01 to 100 seconds), with strikes spreading up to 80 km. The study’s findings help create models to better characterise severe storms.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Hedieh Soltanpour, Kamal Serrhini, Joel C. Gill, Sven Fuchs, and Solmaz Mohadjer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We applied the Maximum Entropy model to characterize multi-hazard scenarios in karst environments, focusing on flood-triggered sinkholes in Val d'Orléans, France. Karst terrains as multi-hazard forming areas, have received little attention in multi-hazard literature. Our study developed a multi-hazard susceptibility map to forecast the spatial distribution of these hazards. The findings improve understanding of hazard interactions and demonstrate the model's utility in multi-hazard analysis.
Lakshmi S. Gopal, Rekha Prabha, Hemalatha Thirugnanam, Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We critically reviewed 250 articles from 2010 to 2023, analysed how social media is used to manage disasters, and developed the Social Media Literature Database. We summarise the methods used for data collection and filtering. Key findings include the widespread use of the latest technologies to handle data, proficiency in spatiotemporal analysis, and gaps in community interaction and resource identification. We also propose best practices for using social media to enhance disaster management.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Compound hazards occur when two different natural hazards impact the same time period and spatial area. This article presents a methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards (SI–CH). The methodology is applied to compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain for the period 1979–2019. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent their spatial and temporal properties.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Faith E. Taylor, Paolo Tarolli, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2585–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, 2020
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, Hugo Winter, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2091–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2091-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating risks induced by interacting natural hazards remains a challenge for practitioners. An approach to tackle this challenge is to use multivariate statistical models. Here we evaluate the efficacy of six models. The models are compared against synthetic data which are comparable to time series of environmental variables. We find which models are more appropriate to estimate relations between hazards in a range of cases. We highlight the benefits of this approach with two examples.
Annette Witt, Bruce D. Malamud, Clara Mangili, and Achim Brauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5547–5581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a unique 9.5 m palaeo-lacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over a period of 10 000 years in the Piànico–Sèllere basin (southern Alps) during an interglacial period in the Pleistocene (sometime between 400 000 and 800 000 years ago). We analyse the palaeoflood series correlation, clustering, and cyclicity properties, finding a long-range cyclicity with a period of about 2030 years superimposed onto a fractional noise.
Bruce D. Malamud, Donald L. Turcotte, and Harold E. Brooks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2823–2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2823-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for the spatial–temporal cluster analysis of severe tornado touchdowns that are part of tornado outbreaks. Tornado outbreaks, groups of tornadoes occurring close to each other in time and space, constitute a severe hazard that has few quantitative measures. Our new approach, which we illustrate using three USA severe tornado outbreaks and models, differentiates between types of tornado outbreaks and, within outbreaks, identifies clusters in both time and space.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Content Analysis of Multi-Annual Time Series of Flood-Related Twitter (X) Data
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Unravelling the capacity-action gap in flood risk adaptation
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Individual Flood Risk Adaptation in Germany: Exploring the Role of Different Types of Flooding
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners’ needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Cited articles
Alvarado, G. E., Soto, G. J., Pullinger, C. R., Escobar, R., Bonis, S.,
Escobar, D., and Navarro, M.: Volcanic Activity, Hazards and Monitoring, in:
Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, UK, 1155–1188, 2007.
Antonelli, C.: Collective knowledge communication and innovation: the evidence of technological districts, Reg. Stud., 34, 535–547,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400050085657, 2000.
ARMONIA – Applied multi Risk Mapping of Natural Hazards for Impact
Assessment: Assessing and mapping multiple risks for spatial planning,
European Union 6th Framework Programme Reports, European Union, available at: https://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc-air-climate/library/public/2010_citiesproject/interchange/armonia_project (last access: 9 December 2019), 2007.
Bommer, J. J. and Rodríguez, C. E.: Earthquake-induced landslides in Central America, Eng. Geol., 63, 189–220, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00081-3, 2002.
Brown, S. K., Sparks, R. S. J., Mee, K., Vye-Brown, C., Ilyinskaya, E., Jenkins, S. F., and Loughlin, S. C.: Country and regional profiles of volcanic hazard and risk (Appendix B), in: Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, edited by: Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.030, 2015.
Bucknam, R. C., Coe, J. A., Chavarría, M. M., Godt, J. W., Tarr, A. C.,
Bradley, L. A., Rafferty, S., Hancock, D., Dart, R. L., and Johnson, M. L.:
Landslides triggered by hurricane Mitch in Guatemala: Inventory and
discussion, US Geological Survey Open File Report 01-443, US Department of
the Interior, USA, p. 38, 2001.
Budimir, M. E. A., Atkinson, P. M., and Lewis, H. G.: Earthquake-and-landslide events are associated with more fatalities than
earthquakes alone, Nat. Hazards, 72, 895–914, 2014.
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft/United Nations University: World Risk Report 2017, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Berlin, p. 48, 2017.
Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E. (Eds.): Central America Geology, Resources and Hazards (Two Volume Set), Taylor and Francis, London, UK, p. 1131, 2007.
Cahoon, D. R. and Hensel, P.: Hurricane Mitch: a regional perspective on
mangrove damage, recovery and sustainability, USGS Open File Report 03-183,
US Geological Survey, USA, p. 31, 2002
Carrara, A., Crosta, G., and Frattini, P.: Geomorphological and historical
data in assessing landslide hazard, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 28, 1125–1142, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.545, 2003.
Charvériat, C.: Natural Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean: An
Overview of Risk, Working Paper, Inter-American Development Bank, Research
Department, No. 364, available at:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract id=1817233 (last access: 29 November 2018), 2000.
Choine, M. N., O'Connor, A., Gehl, P., D'Ayala, D., García-Fernández, M., Jiménez, M. J., Gavin, K., Van Gelder, P., Salceda, T., and Power, R.: A multi hazard risk assessment methodology accounting for cascading hazard events, in: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP12, 12–15 July 2015, Vancouver, Canada, available at: https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/53032/items/1.0076192
(last access: 29 November 2018), 2015.
CIA – Central Intelligence Agency: Guatemala Physiography, available at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/cia-maps-publications/Guatemala.html
(last access: 29 November 2018), 2001.
Ciurean, R., Gill, J. C., Reeves, H., O'Grady, S. K., Donald, K., and
Aldridge, T.: Review of multi-hazards research and risk assessments, British
Geological Survey Engineering Geology & Infrastructure Programme, Open
Report OR/18/057, British Geological Survey, UK, 2018.
Claxton, R. H.: Weather-based Hazards in Colonial Guatemala, Stud. Social Sci., 25, 139–163, 1986.
CONRED – Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres: home page, available at: https://conred.gob.gt/site/index.php (last access: 29 November 2018), 2018a.
CONRED – Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres:
Boletínes Informativos, available at: https://conred.gob.gt/site/Boletines-Informativos (last access: 19 November 2018), 2018b.
Cooper, A. H. and Calow, R. C.: Avoiding gypsum geohazards: guidance for
planning and construction, British Geological Survey, Technical Report WC/98/5, UK NG125GG, available at:
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/14146/1/Cooper_Callow_1998_DIFID_Gypsum_and_planning_WC_98_005_COL.pdf (last access: 29 November 2018), 1998.
CRED – Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters: EM-DAT: The
International Disaster Database, available at: https://www.emdat.be/database, last access: 29 November 2018.
De Pippo, T., Donadio, C., Pennetta, M., Petrosino, C., Terlizzi, F., and
Valente, A.: Coastal hazard assessment and mapping in Northern Campania, Italy, Geomorphology, 97, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.08.015, 2008.
de Ruiter, M. C., Couasnon, A., van den Homberg, M., Ward, P., and Daniell, J. E.: How Do Consecutive Disasters Affect Damages and the Post-Disaster
Recovery Process?, in: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 10–14 December 2018, Washington, D.C., USA, December 2018.
DesInventar: Guatemala, available at:
http://www.desinventar.net/DesInventar/profiletab.jsp#more_info (last access: 29 November 2018), 2016.
DiCicco-Bloom, B. and Crabtree, B. F.: The qualitative research interview,
Medical Educ., 40, 314–321, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2929.2006.02418.x, 2006.
Duncan, M., Edwards, S., Kilburn, C., and Twigg, J.: An interrelated hazards
approach to anticipating evolving risk, in: The Making of a Riskier Future: How Our Decisions Are Shaping Future Disaster Risk, Global Facility, GFDRR, Washington, D.C., USA, 2016.
Ebmeier, S. K., Biggs, J., Mather, T. A., Elliott, J. R., Wadge, G., and Amelung, F.: Measuring large topographic change with InSAR: Lava thicknesses, extrusion rate and subsidence rate at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 335, 216–225, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.027, 2012.
Edwards, R.: A critical examination of the use of interpreters in the
qualitative research process, J. Ethnic Migrat. Stud., 24, 197–208, https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.1998.9976626, 1998.
Espinosa, A. F. (Ed.): The Guatemalan earthquake of February 4, 1976: A preliminary report, US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1002, US Government Printing Office, USA, 1976.
Fernández, M. and Ortiz, M.: Earthquake triggered tsunamis, in: Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, UK, 1257–1265, 2007.
Fisher, K. T.: Positionality, subjectivity, and race in transnational and
transcultural geographical research, Gender Place Cult., 22, 456–473, https://doi.org/10.1080/0966369X.2013.879097, 2015.
Foray, D.: Characterising the knowledge base: available and missing indicators, in: Knowledge management in the learning society, OECD, Paris, France, 239–255, 2000.
Gill, J. C.: Increasing the Understanding and Characterisation of Natural
Hazard Interactions, Doctoral Thesis, King's College, London, 2016.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 52, 680–722, 2014.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016.
Gill, J. C., and Malamud, B. D.: Anthropogenic processes, natural hazards, and interactions in a multi-hazard framework, Earth-Sci. Rev., 166, 246–269, 2017.
Glade, T.: Landslide occurrence as a response to land use change: a review of evidence from New Zealand, Catena, 51, 297–314, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0341-8162(02)00170-4, 2003.
Global Volcanism Program: Volcanoes of the World, available at:
http://volcano.si.edu/ (last access: 29 November 2018), 2013.
Guzzetti, F., Cardinali, M., and Reichenbach, P.: The AVI project: a
bibliographical and archive inventory of landslides and floods in Italy, Environ. Manage., 18, 623–633, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02400865, 1994.
Han, J., Wu, S., and Wang, H.: Preliminary study on geological hazard chains, Earth Sci. Front., 14, 11–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1872-5791(08)60001-9, 2007.
Harp, E. L., Wilson, R. C., and Wieczorek, G. F.: Landslides from the February 4, 1976, Guatemala earthquake, US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1204-A, US Government Printing Office, USA, 1981.
Havenith, H.-B., Strom, A., Jongmans, D., Abdrakhmatov, A., Delvaux, D., and Tréfois, P.: Seismic triggering of landslides, Part A: Field evidence from the Northern Tien Shan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 135–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-135-2003, 2003.
Hermosilla, R. G.: The Guatemala City sinkhole collapses, Carbon. Evapor., 27, 103–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13146-011-0074-1, 2012
Hodell, D. A., Brenner, M., Curtis, J. H., and Guilderson, T.: Solar forcing
of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands, Science, 292, 1367–1370,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1057759, 2001.
Hunt, R. E.: Geotechnical Engineering Investigation Handbook, CRC Press, Florida, USA, p. 1088, 2005.
Ibsen, M. L. and Brunsden, D.: The nature, use and problems of historical
archives for the temporal occurrence of landslides, with specific reference
to the south coast of Britain, Ventnor, Isle of Wight, Geomorphology, 15,
241–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-555X(95)00073-E, 1996.
IFFN – International Forest Fire News: Fire Situation in Guatemala, available at: http://www2.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/country/gt/gt_1_eng.htm (last access: 29 November 2018), 2002.
INSIVUMEH – Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología,
Meteorología e Hidrología/National Institute for Seismology,
Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology: Home page, available at: http://insivumeh.gob.gt/, last access: 29 November 2018.
Johnson, J. B. and Lees, J. M.: Sound produced by the rapidly inflating Santiaguito lava dome, Guatemala, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045217, 2010.
Johnson, J. B., Lees, J. M., Gerst, A., Sahagian, D., and Varley, N.: Long-period earthquakes and co-eruptive dome inflation seen with particle image velocimetry, Nature, 456, 377–381, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07429, 2008.
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., and Glade, T.: From Single- to Multi-Hazard Risk
Analyses: a concept addressing emerging challenges, in: Mountain Risks: Bringing Science to Society, edited by: Malet, J. P., Glade, T., and Casagli, N., CERG Editions, Strasbourg, France, 351–356, 2010.
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., and Glade, T.: Challenges of
analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review, Nat. Hazards, 64, 1925–1958, 2012.
Kaufmann, O., Deceuster, J., and Quinif, Y.: An electrical resistivity
imaging-based strategy to enable site-scale planning over covered
palaeokarst features in the Tournaisis area (Belgium), Eng. Geol., 133, 49–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.01.017, 2012.
Kitchin, R. and Tate, N. J.: Conducting research into human geography, in:
Theory, Methodology and Practice, Pearson Education Limited, Harlow, UK, p. 330, 2000.
Knapen, A., Kitutu, M. G., Poesen, J., Breugelmans, W., Deckers, J., and
Muwanga, A.: Landslides in a densely populated county at the footslopes of
Mount Elgon (Uganda): characteristics and causal factors, Geomorphology,
73, 149–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2005.07.004, 2006.
Kreft, S., Eckstein, D., Dorsch, L., and Fischer, L.: Global Climate Risk
Index 2016: Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related
Loss Events in 2014 and 1995 to 2014, available at:
http://germanwatch.org/fr/download/13503.pdf (last access: 29 November 2018), 2015.
Kueny, J. A. and Day, M. J.: Designation of protected karstlands in Central
America: a regional assessment, J. Cave Karst Stud., 64, 165–174, 2002.
LAHT – Latin American Herald Tribune: Guatemala to Deliver Food to 170,000 Families Affected by Heatwave, available at:
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2347276andCategoryId=23558
(last access: 29 November 2018), 2014.
Lindholm, C. D., Climent, A., Camacho, E., Strauch, W., Cepeda, J.,
Cáceras, D., Ligorría, J. P., and Bungum, H.: Seismic hazard and
microzonation, in: Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, 1099–1118, 2007.
Liu, B., Siu, Y. L., and Mitchell, G.: Hazard interaction analysis for
multi-hazard risk assessment: a systematic classification based on
hazard-forming environment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 629–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-629-2016, 2016.
Longhurst, R.: Semi-structured interviews and focus groups, in: Key Methods in Geography, edited by: Clifford, N. J. and Valentine, G., SAGE Publications, London, 117–132, 2003.
Luna, B.: Assessment and Modeling of two Lahars caused by `Hurricane Stan'
at Atitlan, Guatemala, October 2005, Doctoral dissertation, MSc. Thesis,
University of Oslo, Oslo, available at:
https://www.duo.uio.no/handle/10852/12448 (last access: 29 November 2018), 2007.
MacDougall, C.,and Fudge, E.: Planning and recruiting the sample for focus
groups and in-depth interviews, Qual. Health Res., 11, 117–126, 2001.
Madge, C.: Boundary disputes: comments on Sidaway (1992), Area, 25, 294–299, 1993.
MAGA – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y Alimentación:
Frost/Ice Hazard Map, Guatemala, 2002.
MAGA/PEDN – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y Alimentación/Programa de Emergencia por Desastres Naturales: Soil Types
Map, Guatemala, 2002a.
MAGA/PEDN – Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y
Alimentación/Programa de Emergencia por Desastres Naturales: Annual
Average Precipitation Map, Guatemala, 2002b.
Mahood, Q., Van Eerd, D., and Irvin, E.: Searching for grey literature for
systematic reviews: challenges and benefits, Res. Synthes. Meth., 5, 221–234, 2014.
Matthews, B. W.: Comparison of the predicted and observed secondary structure of T4 phage lysozyme, Biochimica et Biophysica Acta (BBA)-Protein Structure, 405, 442–451, https://doi.org/10.1016/0005-2795(75)90109-9, 1975.
McGuire, B. and Maslin, M. A. (Eds.): Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards, Wiley-Blackwell, West Sussex, UK, p. 311, 2012.
Merriam, S. B., Johnson-Bailey, J., Lee, M. Y., Kee, Y., Ntseane, G., and
Muhamad, M.: Power and positionality: Negotiating insider/outsider status
within and across cultures, Int. J. Lifelong Educ., 20, 405–416, https://doi.org/10.1080/02601370120490, 2001.
Mignan, A., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The quantification of
low-probability–high-consequences events: Part I. A generic multi-risk
approach, Nat. Hazards, 73, 1999–2022, 2014.
Moeller, S. D.: Regarding the Pain of Others: Media, Bias and the Coverage
of International Disasters, J. Int. Affairs, 59, 173–196, 2006.
Moreno, A. R.: Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers,
effects, and policies, Reg. Environ. Change, 6, 157–164,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-006-0015-z, 2006.
NASA – National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Patterns of Lightning
Activity, available at:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=6679andeocn=imageandeoci=related_image (last access: 29 November 2018), 2006.
Neri, A., Aspinall, W. P., Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., Andronico, D., Barsotti, S., Cole, P. D., Espoti-Ongaro, T., Hincks, T. K., Macedonio, G., Papale, P., Rosi, M., Santacroce, R., and Woo, G.: Developing an event tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at
Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 397–415, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.014, 2008.
Neri, M., Le Cozannet, G., Thierry, P., Bignami, C., and Ruch, J.: A method
for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from
Kanlaon (Philippines), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013, 2013.
Owen, L. A., Kamp, U., Khattak, G. A., Harp, E. L., Keefer, D. K., and Bauer, M. A.: Landslides triggered by the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake,
Geomorphology, 94, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.04.007, 2008.
Palinkas, L. A., Horwitz, S. M., Green, C. A., Wisdom, J. P., Duan, N., and
Hoagwood, K.: Purposeful sampling for qualitative data collection and analysis in mixed method implementation research, in: Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research, Vol. 42, Springer, 533–544, 2015.
Paton, D., Smith, L., Daly, M., and Johnston, D.: Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 179–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.026, 2008.
Pescaroli, G. andAlexander, D.: Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Anal., 38, 2245–2257, 2018.
Pielke Jr., R. A., Rubiera, J., Landsea, C., Fernández, M. L., and Klein,
R.: Hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean: Normalized
damage and loss potentials, Nat. Hazards Rev., 4, 101–114,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:3(101), 2003.
Plafker, G., Bonilla, M. G., and Bonis, S. B.: Geologic Effects, in: The Guatemalan earthquake of February 4, 1976: A preliminary report, edited by: Espinosa, A. F., US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1002, US Government Printing Office, USA, 38–51, 1976.
Porfido, S., Esposito, E., Spiga, E., Sacchi, M., Molisso, F., and Mazzola, S.: Re-evaluation of the 1976 Guatemala earthquake taking into account the
environmental effects, in: 11th EGU General Assembly, 27 April–2 May 2014, Vienna, Austria, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 16, EGU2014-6525, 2014.
Porfido, S., Esposito, E., Spiga, E., Sacchi, M., Molisso, F., and Mazzola, S.: Impact of Ground Effects for an Appropriate Mitigation Strategy in Seismic Area: The Example of Guatemala 1976 Earthquake, in: Engineering Geology for Society and Territory-Volume 2 (Landslide Processes), edited by: Lollino, G., Giordan, D., Crosta, G. B., Corominas, J., Azzam, R., Wasowski, J., and Sciarra, N., Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, 703–708, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_117, 2015.
Powers, D. M. W.: Evaluation: from Precision, Recall and F-measure to ROC,
Informedness, Markedness and Correlation, J. Mach. Learn. Technol., 2, 37–63, 2011.
Qu, S. Q. and Dumay, J.: The qualitative research interview, Qual. Res. Account. Manage., 8, 238–264, https://doi.org/10.1108/11766091111162070, 2011.
Raška, P., Zábranský, V., Dubišar, J., Kadlec, A.,
Hrbáčová, A., and Strnad, T.: Documentary proxies and
interdisciplinary research on historic geomorphologic hazards: a discussion of the current state from a central European perspective, Nat. Hazards, 70, 705–732, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0839-z, 2014.
ReliefWeb: Guatemala Boletínes Informativos, available at:
http://reliefweb.int/updates?search=Boletin informativos (last access: 29 November 2018), 2016.
ReliefWeb: Situation Reports for Central America following Tropical Storm
Nate, available online:
https://reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2017-000148-nic/thumb, last access: 29 November 2018.
Rodríguez, C.E.: Earthquake-induced landslides, in: Central America, Two Volume Set: Geology, Resources and Hazards, edited by: Bundschuh, J. and
Alvarado, G. E., Taylor and Francis, London, 1217–1255, 2007.
Rose, W. I., Bommer, J. J., Lopez, D. L., Carr, M. J., and Major, J. J. (Eds.): Natural hazards in El Salvador, in: Vol. 375, Geological Society of America, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2004.
Satarugsa, P.: The Lessons Learnt from Geophysical Investigation of Sinkholes in Rock Salt in Thailand, in: International Conference on Geology, Geotechnology and Mineral Resources of Indochina (GEOINDO 2011), 1–3 December 2011, Khon Kaen, Thailand, available at:
http://home.kku.ac.th/peangta/peangta-final-sinkhole2011.pdf (last access: 29 November 2018), 2011.
Schneider, S. C. and Barsoux, J. L.: Managing across cultures, Pearson
Education, Harlow, England, p. 352, 2002.
Schuster, R. L., Bucknam, R. C., and Mota, M. A.: Stability assessment of a
Hurricane Mitch-induced landslide dam on the Rio La Lima, Sierra de Las Minas, eastern Guatemala, Open File Report 01-120, US Geological Survey, US Department of the Interior, USA, 2001.
Scolobig, A., Nadejda, K., and Arnaud, M.: Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy, Geosciences, 7, 1–18, 2017.
Seed, H. B., Arango, I., Gomez-Masso, A., Ascoli, R. G., and Chan, C.:
Earthquake-induced liquefaction near lake Amatitlan, Guatemala, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 107, 501–518, 1981.
Siebert, L., Alvarado, G. E., Vallance, J. W., and De Vries, B. V. W.:
Large-volume volcanic edifice failures in Central America and associated
hazards, Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap., 412, 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1130/2006.2412(01), 2006.
Soto, A. J., Rodhe, A., Pohjola, V., and Boelhouwers, J.: Spatial distribution of disasters caused by natural hazards in the Samala River
catchment, Guatemala, Geograf. Ann. A, 97, 181–196, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12097, 2015.
Squires, A.: Methodological challenges in cross-language qualitative research: a research review, Int. J. Nurs. Stud., 46, 277–287, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2008.08.006, 2009.
Stewart, S. R.: Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes 2010 – Flooding in a Slow
Season, Weatherwise, 64, 38–45, https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.2011.566819, 2011.
Stewart, S. R. and Cangialosi, J. P.: Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 2769–2781, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00152.1, 2012.
Sultana, F.: Reflexivity, positionality and participatory ethics: Negotiating fieldwork dilemmas in international research, ACME, 6, 374–385, 2007.
Suri, H.: Purposeful sampling in qualitative research synthesis, Qual. Res. J., 11, 63–75, 2011.
Tappin, D. R.: Submarine mass failures as tsunami sources: their climate control, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 368, 2417–2434, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0079, 2010.
Tarvainen, T., Jarva, J., and Greiving, S.: Spatial pattern of hazards and
hazard interactions in Europe, in: Natural and Technological Hazards and Risks Affecting the Spatial Development of European Regions, 42, edited by: Schmidt-Thomé, P., Geological Survey of Finland, Finland, 83–91, 2006.
Taylor, F. E., Malamud, B. D., Freeborough, K., and Demeritt, D.: Enriching
Great Britain's National Landslide Database by searching newspaper archives,
Geomorphology, 249, 52–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.05.019, 2015.
Temple, B. and Edwards, R.: Interpreters/translators and cross-language
research: Reflexivity and border crossings, Int. J. Qual. Meth., 1, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1177/160940690200100201, 2002.
Temple, B. and Young, A.: Qualitative research and translation dilemmas, Qual. Res., 4, 161–178, https://doi.org/10.1177/1468794104044430, 2004.
Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., Winter, H., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships, Earth-Sci. Rev., 196, 102881, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102881, 2019.
Tobin, G. A. and Montz, B. E.: Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration, Guilford Press, New York, 1997.
Trimble, S. W.: The use of historical data and artifacts in geomorphology,
Prog. Phys. Geogr., 32, 3–29, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133308089495, 2008.
UNDRR – United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: Sendai Framework
for Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations, Geneva, p. 37, 2015.
UNDRR – United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: DRR Terminology,
available at: https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology (last access: 29 November 2018), 2017.
Valentine, G.: Tell me about … using interviews as a research
methodology, in: Methods in human geography: A guide for students doing a research project, edited by: Flowerdew, R. and Martin, D., Prentice Hall,
Harlow, UK, 110–126, 1997.
van Westen, C. J., Kappes, M. S., Luna, B. Q., Frigerio, S., Glade, T., and
Malet, J.-P.: Medium-scale multi-hazard risk assessment of gravitational
processes, in: Mountain risks: from prediction to management and governance, edited by: van Asch, T., Corominas, J., Greiving, S., Malet, J.-P., and
Sterlacchini, S., Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 201–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6769-0_7, 2014.
von Huene, R., Ranero, C. R., and Watts, P.: Tsunamigenic slope failure along
the Middle America Trench in two tectonic settings, Mar. Geol., 203, 303–317, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00312-8, 2004.
Welle, T., Birkmann, J., Rhyner, J., Witting, M., and Wolfertz, J.: World
Risk Index 2013, in: World Risk Report 2013, edited by: Jeschonnek, L., Alliance Development Works, Berlin, Germany, 45–56, 2013.
World Bank: Precipitation in Guatemala 1900–2012, available at:
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm?page=country_historical_climateandThisRegion=North AmericaandThisCCode=GTM# (last access: 29 November 2018), 2016.
Short summary
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint