Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7a
Christina Kagkara
Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, Laboratoire de
Météorologie Physique, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, Laboratoire de
Météorologie Physique, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, Laboratoire de
Météorologie Physique, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Andrea I. Flossmann
Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, Laboratoire de
Météorologie Physique, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Pascal Lemaitre, Arnaud Querel, Alexis Dépée, Alice Guerra Devigne, Marie Monier, Thibault Hiron, Chloé Soto Minguez, and Andrea Flossmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2105, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new in-cloud scavenging scheme is proposed. It is based on a microphysical model of cloud formation and may be applied to long-distance atmospheric transport models (>100 km) and climatic models. This model is established for the two most extreme precipitating cloud types, in terms of both relative humidity and vertical extension: cumulonimbus and stratus.
Alexis Dépée, Pascal Lemaitre, Thomas Gelain, Marie Monier, and Andrea Flossmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6945–6962, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6945-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6945-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Present article describe a new In-Cloud Aerosol Scavenging Experiment (In-CASE) that has been conceived to measure the collection efficiency of submicron aerosol particles by cloud droplets. The present article focuses on the influence of phoretic effects on the collection efficiency.
Alexis Dépée, Pascal Lemaitre, Thomas Gelain, Marie Monier, and Andrea Flossmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6963–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6963-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6963-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The present article describes a new In-Cloud Aerosol Scavenging Experiment (In-CASE) that has been conceived to measure the collection efficiency of submicron aerosol particles by cloud droplets. The present article focuses on the influence of electrostatic effects on the collection efficiency.
Jean-Luc Baray, Laurent Deguillaume, Aurélie Colomb, Karine Sellegri, Evelyn Freney, Clémence Rose, Joël Van Baelen, Jean-Marc Pichon, David Picard, Patrick Fréville, Laëtitia Bouvier, Mickaël Ribeiro, Pierre Amato, Sandra Banson, Angelica Bianco, Agnès Borbon, Lauréline Bourcier, Yannick Bras, Marcello Brigante, Philippe Cacault, Aurélien Chauvigné, Tiffany Charbouillot, Nadine Chaumerliac, Anne-Marie Delort, Marc Delmotte, Régis Dupuy, Antoine Farah, Guy Febvre, Andrea Flossmann, Christophe Gourbeyre, Claude Hervier, Maxime Hervo, Nathalie Huret, Muriel Joly, Victor Kazan, Morgan Lopez, Gilles Mailhot, Angela Marinoni, Olivier Masson, Nadège Montoux, Marius Parazols, Frédéric Peyrin, Yves Pointin, Michel Ramonet, Manon Rocco, Martine Sancelme, Stéphane Sauvage, Martina Schmidt, Emmanuel Tison, Mickaël Vaïtilingom, Paolo Villani, Miao Wang, Camille Yver-Kwok, and Paolo Laj
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3413–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3413-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
CO-PDD (Cézeaux-Aulnat-Opme-puy de Dôme) is a fully instrumented platform for atmospheric research. The four sites located at different altitudes from 330 to 1465 m around Clermont-Ferrand (France) host in situ and remote sensing instruments to measure atmospheric composition, including long-term trends and variability, to study interconnected processes (microphysical, chemical, biological, chemical, and dynamical) and to provide a reference point for climate models.
Pascal Lemaitre, Arnaud Querel, Marie Monier, Thibault Menard, Emmanuel Porcheron, and Andrea I. Flossmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4159–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4159-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4159-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present new measurements of the efficiency with which aerosol particles are collected by raindrops. These measurements provide the link to reconcile the scavenging coefficients obtained from theoretical approaches with those from experimental studies. We provide proof of the rear capture that is a fundamental effect on submicroscopic particles. Finally, we propose an expression to take into account this mechanism to calculate the collection efficiency for drops within the rain size range.
Céline Planche, Graham W. Mann, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, John H. Marsham, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3371–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A convection-permitting limited area model with prognostic aerosol microphysics is applied to investigate how concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the marine boundary layer are affected by high-resolution dynamical and thermodynamic fields at sub-climate model scale. We gain new insight into the way primary sea-salt and secondary sulfate particles contribute to the overall CCN variance, and find a marked difference in the variability of super- and sub-micron CCN.
A. Quérel, P. Lemaitre, M. Monier, E. Porcheron, A. I. Flossmann, and M. Hervo
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1321–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1321-2014, 2014
L. Deguillaume, T. Charbouillot, M. Joly, M. Vaïtilingom, M. Parazols, A. Marinoni, P. Amato, A.-M. Delort, V. Vinatier, A. Flossmann, N. Chaumerliac, J. M. Pichon, S. Houdier, P. Laj, K. Sellegri, A. Colomb, M. Brigante, and G. Mailhot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1485–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1485-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Catchment scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years, but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed by Arctic cyclones to ships has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks and shipping incident reports, to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggests that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships, and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression is used to determine the drought severity and time zones where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations). Moreover, this study also examined the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2)The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Cited articles
Ahlgrimm, M. and Forbes, R.: Improving the Representation of Low Clouds and
Drizzle in the ECMWF Model Based on ARM Observations from the Azores, Mon.
Weather Rev., 142, 668–685, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00153.1, 2014.
Boudevillain, B., Delrieu, G., Galabertier, B., Bonnifait, L., Bouilloud,
L., Kirstetter, P., and Mosini, M.: The Cevennes-Vivarais Mediterranean
Hydrometeorological Observatory database, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07701,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010353, 2011.
Boudevillain, B., Delrieu, G., Wijbrans, A., and Confoland, A.: A
high-resolution rainfall re-analysis based on radar-rain gauge merging in
the Cévennes-Vivarais region, France, J. Hydrol., 541, 14–23,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.058, 2016.
Clark, T. L.: Block-iterative method of solving the non-hydrostatic pressure
in terrain-following coordinates: Two-level pressure and truncation error
analysis, J. Appl. Meteorol., 42, 970–983, 2003.
Clark, T. L., Hall, W. D., and Coen, J. L.: Source Code Documentation for the
Clark-Hall Cloud-scale Model Code Version G3CH01, NCAR Tech., Note
NCAR/TN-426+STR, 1996.
Delrieu, G., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Nicol, J., Payrastre, O., Yates, E., Kirstetter, P.-E., Andrieu, H., Ayral, P.-A., Bouvier, C., Creutin, J.-D., Livet, M., Anquetin, S., Lang, M., Neppel, L., Obled, C., Parent-Du Châtelet, J., Saulnier, G.-M., Walpersdorf, A., and Wobrock, W.: The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9
September 2002 in the Gard region, France: A first case study for the
Cevennes- Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory, J.
Hydrometeorol., 6, 34–52, 2005.
Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Kirstetter, P.-E., Boudevillain, B.: Dependence
of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity
in the Cévennes region, France, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59,
1308–1319, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.827337, 2014.
Ducrocq, V., Braud, I., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Jansa, A.,
Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., Taupier-Letage, I., Ayral, P. A., Belamari, S.,
Berne, A., Borga, M., Boudevillain, B., Bock, O., Boichard, J. L., Bouin, M.
N., Bousquet, O., Bouvier, C., Chiggiato, J., Cimini, D., Corsmeier, U.,
Coppola, L., Cocquerez, P., Defer, E., Delanoë, J., Girolamo, P. D.,
Doerenbecher, A., Drobinski, P., Dufournet, Y., Fourrié, N., Gourley, J.
J., Labatut, L., Lambert, D., Coz, J. L., Marzano, F. S., Molinié, G.,
Montani, A., Nord, G., Nuret, M., Ramage, K., Rison, W., Roussot, O., Said,
F., Schwarzenboeck, A., Testor, P., VanBaelen, J., Vincendon, B., Aran, M.,
and Tamayo, J.: HyMeX-SOP1: The field campaign dedicated to heavy
precipitation and flash flooding in the Northwestern Mediterranean, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1083–1100,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00244.1, 2014.
Duffourg, F., Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., Flamant, C., Chazette, P.,
Delanoë, J., Doerenbecher, A., Fourrié, N., Girolamo, P. D., Lac,
C., Legain, D., Martinet, M., Saïd, F., and Bock, O.: Offshore deep
convection initiation and maintenance during HyMeX IOP16a heavy
precipitation event, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 259–274,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2725, 2016.
Fan, J., Leung, L. R., Li, Z., Morrison, H., Chen, H., Zhou, Y., Qian, Y.,
and Wang, F.: Aerosol impacts on clouds and precipitation in eastern China:
Results from bin and bulk microphysics, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D00K36,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016537, 2012.
Flossmann, A. I. and Wobrock, W.: A review of our understanding of the
aerosol–cloud interaction from the perspective of a bin resolved cloud
scale modelling, Atmos. Res., 97, 478–497, 2010.
Flossmann, A. and Wobrock, W.: Models of clouds, precipitation and
storms, in: Encyclopedia of Water: Science, Technology, and Society,
Atmosphere and Precipitation, Ice and Glaciers, Oceans and Coasts, Soils and
Mineral Water Interface, Atmosphere and Precipitation, John Wiley &
Sons, Ltd, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119300762.wsts0004, 2019.
Fontaine, E., Schwarzenboeck, A., Delanoë, J., Wobrock, W., Leroy, D., Dupuy, R., Gourbeyre, C., and Protat, A.: Constraining mass–diameter relations from hydrometeor images and cloud radar reflectivities in tropical continental and oceanic convective anvils, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11367–11392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11367-2014, 2014.
Geresdi, I.: Idealized simulation of the Colorado hailstorm case: comparison
of bulk and detailed microphysics, Atmos. Res., 45, 237–252,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(97)00079-3, 1998.
Hall, W. D.: A detailed microphysical model within a two-dimensional dynamic
framework: model description and preliminary results, J. Atmos. Sci., 37,
2486–2506, 1980.
Hally, A., Richard, E., and Ducrocq, V.: An ensemble study of HyMeX IOP6 and IOP7a: sensitivity to physical and initial and boundary condition uncertainties, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1071–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, 2014.
HyMeX database: HyMeX Database Content, available at: https://mistrals.sedoo.fr/Database-Content/?project=HyMeX, last access: 21 May 2020.
Kagkara, C.: The impact of aerosol particles and ice particles on cloud
formation and precipitation: a numerical study based on the HyMeX campaign.
PhD thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne, 183 pp., 2019.
Khain, A., Pokrovsky, A., Pinsky, M., Seifert, A., and Phillips, V.:
Simulation of effects of atmospheric aerosols on deep turbulent convective
clouds using a spectral microphysics mixed-phase cumulus cloud model. Part
I: model description and possible applications, J. Atmos. Sci., 61,
2963–2982, 2004.
Koop, T. N. H. P., Luo, B., Tsias, A., and Peter, T.: Water activity as the
determinant for homogeneous ice nucleation in aqueous solution, Nature, 406,
611–615, https://doi.org/10.1038/35020537, 2000.
Leroy, D., Wobrock, W., and Flossmann, A. I.: The role of boundary layer
aerosol particles for the development of deep convective clouds: A
high-resolution 3D model with detailed (bin) microphysics applied to
CRYSTAL-FACE, Atmos. Res., 91, 62–78, 2009.
Low, T. and List, R.: Collision, Coalescence and Breakup of Raindrops. Part
II: Parameterization of fragment size distributions, J. Atmos. Sci., 39,
1607–1618, 1982.
Lynn, H., Khain, A., Dudhia, J., Rosenfeld, D., Pokrovsky, A., and Seifert,
A.: Spectral (bin) microphysics coupled with a Mesoscale Model (MM5). Part
I: Model description and first results, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 44–58, 2005.
Marinescu, P. J., van den Heever, S. C., Saleeby, S. M., Kreidenweis, S. M., and
DeMott, P. J.: The microphysical roles of lower-tropospheric versus
midtropospheric aerosol particles in mature-stage MCS precipitation, J.
Atmos. Sci., 74, 3657–3678, 2017.
Martinet, M., Nuissier, O., Duffourg, F., Ducrocq, V., and Ricard, D.:
Fine-scale numerical analysis of the sensitivity of the HyMeX IOP16a heavy
precipitating event to the turbulent mixing length parameterization, Q.
J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 3122–3135, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3167,
2017.
Meyers, M. P., Demott, P. J., and Cotton, W. R.: New primary ice nucleation
parameterizations in an explicit cloud model, J. Appl. Meteorol., 31,
708–721, 1992.
Morrison, H., Tessendorf, S. A., Ikeda, K., and Thompson, G.: Sensitivity of
a simulated mid-latitude squall line to parameterization of raindrop
breakup, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 2437–2460,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00283.1, 2012.
Pinty, J. and Jabouille, P.: A mixed-phase cloud parameterization for
usein mesoscale non hydrostatic model: simulations of a squall line and of
orographic precipitations, in: Proceedings of Conference on Cloud Physics, Everett, WA, 217–220, American
Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 1998.
Planche, C., Wobrock, W., Flossmann, A. I., Tridon, F., VanBaelen, J.,
Pointin, Y., and Hagen, M.: The influence of aerosol particle number and
hygroscopicity on the evolution of convective cloud systems and their
precipitation: A numerical study based on the COPS observations on 12 August
2007, Atmos. Res., 98, 40–56, 2010.
Planche, C., Tridon, F., Banson, S., Thompson, G., Monier, M., Battaglia,
A., Wobrock, W.: On the realism of the rain microphysics representation of a
squall line in the WRF model. Part II: Sensitivity studies on the rain Drop
Size Distributions, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 2811–2825,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0019.1, 2019.
Raupach, T. H. and Berne, A.: Correction of raindrop size distributions measured by Parsivel disdrometers, using a two-dimensional video disdrometer as a reference, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-343-2015, 2015.
Raupach, T. H., Thurai, M., Bringi, V. N., and Berne, A.: Reconstructing the
drizzle mode of the raindrop size distribution using double moment
normalization, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 145–164,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0156.1, 2019.
Rebora, N., Molini, L., Casella, E., Comellas, A., Fiori, E., Pignone, F., Siccardi, F., Silvestro, F., Tanelli, S., and Parodi, A.: Extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean: What can
we learn from observations?, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 906–922, 2013.
Romero, R., Doswell, C. A., and Ramis, C: Mesoscale numerical study of two
cases of long-lived quasi-stationary convective systems over eastern Spain,
Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 3731–3751, 2000.
Rose, C., Sellegri, K., Freney, E., Dupuy, R., Colomb, A., Pichon, J.-M., Ribeiro, M., Bourianne, T., Burnet, F., and Schwarzenboeck, A.: Airborne measurements of new particle formation in the free troposphere above the Mediterranean Sea during the HYMEX campaign, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10203–10218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10203-2015, 2015.
Sénési, S., Bougeault, P., Cheze, J.-L., Cosentino, P., and
Thepenier, R.-M.: The Vaison-La-Romaine flash flood: Mesoscale analysis and
predictability issues, Weather Forecast., 11, 417–442,
1996.
Seifert, A.: On the parameterization of evaporation of raindrops as
simulated by a one-dimensional rainshaft model, J. Atmos. Sci., 65,
3608–3619, 2008.
Shpund, J., Khain, A., and Rosenfeld, D.: Effects of Sea Spray on the
Dynamics and Microphysics of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone, J.
Atmos. Sci., 76, 2213–2234, 2019.
Silvestro, F., Gabellani, S., Giannoni, F., Parodi, A., Rebora, N., Rudari, R., and Siccardi, F.: A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2743–2752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2743-2012, 2012.
Taufour, M., Vié, B., Augros, C., Boudevillain, B., Delanoë, J.,
Delautier, G., Ducrocq, V., Lac, C., Pinty, J.-P., and Schwarzenböck,
A.: Evaluation of the two-moment scheme LIMA based on microphysical
observations from the HyMeX campaign, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144,
1398–1414, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3283, 2018.
Thompson, G. and Eidhammer, T.: A study of aerosol impacts on clouds and
precipitation development in a large winter cyclone, J. Atmos. Sci., 71,
3636–3658, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0305.1, 2014.
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit
forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics
scheme. Part II: Implementation of a new snow parameterization, Mon. Weather
Rev., 136, 5095–5115, 2008.
Thurai, M. and Bringi, V. N.: Application of the generalized gamma model to
represent the full rain drop size distribution spectra, J. Appl. Meteorol.
Clim., 57, 1197–1210, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0235.1, 2018.
Tridon, F., Planche, C., Mroz, K., Banson, S., Battaglia, A., Van Baelen,
J., and Wobrock, W.: On the realism of the rain microphysics representation of a squall line in the WRF model. Part I: Evaluation with multifrequency radar
Doppler spectra observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 2787–2810,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0018.1, 2019.
Varble, A., Zipser, E. J., Fridlind, A. M., Zhu, P., Ackerman, A. S.,
Chaboureau, J.-P., Fan, J., Hill, A., Shipway, B., and Williams, C.:
Evaluation of cloud-resolving and limited area model intercomparison
simulations using TWP-ICE observations: 2. Precipitation microphysics, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 13919–13945,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021372, 2014.
Venzac, H., Sellegri, K., Villani, P., Picard, D., and Laj, P.: Seasonal variation of aerosol size distributions in the free troposphere and residual layer at the puy de Dôme station, France, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1465–1478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1465-2009, 2009.
Vié, B., Pinty, J.-P., Berthet, S., and Leriche, M.: LIMA (v1.0): A quasi two-moment microphysical scheme driven by a multimodal population of cloud condensation and ice freezing nuclei, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 567–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-567-2016, 2016.
Zwiebel, J., Van Baelen, J., Anquetin, S., Pointin, Y., and Boudevillain, B.:
Impacts of orography and rain intensity on rainfall structure. The case of
the HyMeX IOP7a event, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 310–319,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2679, 2016.
Short summary
Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km2 with more than 50 mm rain accumulation was observed during IOP7a of HyMeX. This study evaluates the performance of a bin-resolved cloud model for simulating this heavy-precipitation event. The simulation results were compared with observations of rain accumulation, radar reflectivity, temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, 5 min rain rates, and raindrop size distributions.
Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint