Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-737-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-737-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 10 Apr 2019
| 10 Apr 2019
Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework
Richard Marijnissen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University &
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Matthijs Kok
Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048,
2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Carolien Kroeze
Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University &
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Jantsje van Loon-Steensma
Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University &
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048,
2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
No articles found.
Cees Oerlemans, Martine van den Boomen, Ties Rijcken, and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by urban development and sea level rise. Varied exposure levels across neighborhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how hydraulic head levels in canal dikes respond to heavy rainfall, potentially causing instabilities and flooding. Using time series models and simulating long-term head levels, we identified clusters of dikes where head peaks are driven by similar rainfall events. Statistical analyses show that extreme and yearly conditions are close. However, extreme conditions are expected to become more frequent due to climate change, though some dikes will be less affected than others.
Guus Rongen, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Matthijs Kok
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2831–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2831-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2831-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new method for predicting extreme events such as floods on the river Meuse. The current method was shown to be unreliable as it did not predict a recent flood. We developed a model that includes information from experts and combines this with measurements. We found that this approach gives more accurate predictions, particularly for extreme events. The research is important for predictions of extreme flood levels that are necessary for protecting communities against floods.
Egidius Johanna Cassianus Dupuits, Ferdinand Lennaert Machiel Diermanse, and Matthijs Kok
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1893-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Flood defences, such as levees, emergency storage basins or storm surge barriers, can be designed as multiple lines of defence. If each line of defence has a number of possible levels, the total number of possible system configurations can be large. This paper presents an approach that is able to find an optimal configuration including future adaptations of such a flood defence system, based on an economic cost–benefit analysis.
J. M. van Loon-Steensma and P. Vellinga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1085–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1085-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Content Analysis of Multi-Annual Time Series of Flood-Related Twitter (X) Data
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Unravelling the capacity-action gap in flood risk adaptation
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Individual Flood Risk Adaptation in Germany: Exploring the Role of Different Types of Flooding
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners’ needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Cited articles
Aguilar-López, J. P., Warmink, J. J., Schielen, R. M. J., and Hulscher,
S. J. M. H.: Correlation Effect in Probabilistic Design against Piping in
Multi-Functional Flood Defences, in: Geotechnical Safety and Risk V, edited
by: Schweckendiek, T., Van Tol, A. F., Pereboom, D., Van Staveren, A., and
Cools, P. M. C. B. M., IOS Press, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,
https://doi.org/10.3233/978-1-61499-580-7-237, 2015.
Aguilar-López, J. P., Warmink, J. J., Schielen, R. M. J., and Hulscher,
S. J. M. H.: Piping erosion safety assessment of flood defences founded over
sewer pipes, Eur. J. Environ. Civ. En., 22, 707–735,
https://doi.org/10.1080/19648189.2016.1217793, 2018.
Anvarifar, F., Oderkerk, M., van der Horst, B. R., and Zevenbergen, C.:
Cost-effectiveness study on preventive interventions: A survey of
multifunctional flood defences, in: Comprehensive Flood Risk Management:
research for policy and practice, edited by: Klijn, F. and Schweckendiek,
T., CRC Press, London, UK, 891–899, 2013.
Anvarifar, F., Zevenbergen, C., Thissen, W., and Islam, T.: Understanding
flexibility for multifunctional flood defences: a conceptual framework, J.
Water Clim. Change, 7, 467–484, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2016.064, 2016.
Anvarifar, F., Voorendt, M., Zevenbergen, C., and Thissen, W.: An application
of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to risk analysis of
multifunctional flood defences in the Netherlands, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe.,
158, 130–141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2016.10.004, 2017.
Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and
associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004.
Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: A Probabilistic
Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks, Nat. Hazards, 38, 79–100,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8603-7, 2006.
Bachmann, D., Huber, N. P., Johann, G., and Schüttrumpf, H.: Fragility
curves in operational dike reliability assessment, Georisk: Assessment and
Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 7, 49–60,
https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2013.767664 , 2013.
Bischiniotis, K., Kanning, W., Jonkman, S. N., and Kok, M.: Cost-optimal
design of river dikes using probabilistic methods, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11,
1002–1014, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12277, 2018.
Bishop, A. W.: The use of the slip circle in the stability analysis of
slopes, Géotechnique, 5, 7–17, https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1955.5.1.7,
1955.
Bomers, A., Aguilar Lopez, J. P., Warmink, J. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H.:
Modelling effects of an asphalt road at a dike crest on dike cover erosion
onset during wave overtopping, Nat. Hazards, 93, 1–30,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3287-y, 2018.
Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Changes in future flood
risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area, Global Environ. Chang., 20,
463-471, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.002, 2010.
Brinkman, R. and Nuttall, J. D.: Failure mechanisms – Macro Stability
kernel; Scientific Background, Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands,
11201523-001-HYE-001, 2018.
Chen, X., Jonkman, S. N., Pasterkamp, S., Suzuki, T., and Altomare, C.:
Vulnerability of Buildings on Coastal Dikes due to Wave Overtopping, Water,
9, 394, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9060394, 2017.
Danka, J. and Zhang, L. M.: Dike Failure Mechanisms and Breaching
Parameters, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 141,
04015039, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001335, 2015.
de Waal, J. P.: Deelrapport 9: Modellering dammen, voorlanden en golfoploop,
in: Achtergronden hydraulische belastingen dijken IJsselmeergebied,
Rijksinstituut voor Integraal Zoetwaterbeheer en Afvalwaterbehandeling
(RIZA), Lelystad, the Netherlands, ISBN 9036952700, 1999.
Diermanse, F.: WBI – Onzekerheden; Overzicht van belasting en
sterkteonzekerheden in het wettelijk beoordelingsinstrumentarium, Deltares,
Delft, the Netherlands, 1220080-001-ZWS-0004, 2016.
Ellen, G. J., Boers, M., Knoeff, H., Schelfhout, H. A., Tromp, E., van den
Berg, F., Borgers, H., and Rengers, J.: Multifunctioneel medegebruik van de
waterkering: beantwoording signaleringsvraag #5 van de Deltacommissaris,
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, 41, 1204871-000, 2011a.
Ellen, G. J., Hommes, S., Kalweit, A. M., van Lamoen, F., Melisie, E.,
Maring, L., Paalman, M., Peerdeman, K., van Rooij, S. A. M., and Steingrover,
E. G.: Multifunctioneel landgebruik als adaptatiestrategie – Puzzelen met
ondernemers en beleidsmakers, Kennis voor Klimaat, Wageningen, the
Netherlands, KvK/036/2011, 2011b.
Friess, D. A., Spencer, T., Smith, G. M., Möller, I., Brooks, S. M., and
Thomson, A. G.: Remote sensing of geomorphological and ecological change in
response to saltmarsh managed realignment, The Wash, UK, Int. J. Appl. Earth
Obs., 18, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.01.016, 2012.
Gulvanessian, H.: EN 1990 Eurocode “Basis of structural design” – the
innovative head Eurocode, Steel Construction, 2, 222–227,
https://doi.org/10.1002/stco.200910030, 2009.
Hall, J. W., Dawson, R., Sayers, P., Rosu, C., Chatterton, J., and Deakin,
R.: A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment, P. I. Civil.
Eng.-Water, 156, 235–248, https://doi.org/10.1680/wame.2003.156.3.235, 2003.
Hanssen, R. F. and van Leijen, F. J.: Monitoring deformation of water
defense structures using satellite radar interferometry, Proceedings of the
13th FIG Symposium on Deformation Measurement and Analysis, Lisbon, Portugal, 2008.
Hasofer, A. M. and Lind, N. C.: Exact and invariant second-moment code
format, J. Eng. Mech. Div.-ASCE, 100, 111–121, 1974.
Herle, S., Becker, R., and Blankenbach, J.: Smart sensor-based geospatial
architecture for dike monitoring, IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 34,
012014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/34/1/012014, 2016.
Hinkel, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Nicholls, R. J., and Klein, R. J. T.: The
effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st
century, An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models, Climatic Change, 117,
783–794, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0564-8, 2013.
Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D.,
Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate change,
Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 816, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013.
Hoffmans, G., Akkerman, G. J., Verheij, H., van Hoven, A., and van der Meer,
J.: The erodability of grassed inner dike slopes against wave overtopping,
in: Coastal Engineering 2008: Proceedings of the 31st International
Conference, Hamburg, Germany, 31 August–5 September 2008, 3224–3236,
https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814277426_0267, 2009.
Holthuijsen, L. H.: Methoden voor golfvoorspelling, Technische
Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen, Delft, the Netherlands, TAWP80-01,
1980.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
2013.
Jongejan, R. and Maaskant, B.: Applications of VNK2, a fully probabilistic
risk analysis for all major levee systems in the Netherlands, in:
Comprehensive Flood Risk Management: research for policy and practice, edited
by: Klijn, F. and Schweckendiek, T., CRC Press, London, UK,
693–700, 2013.
Jongman, B., Ward, P. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Global exposure to river
and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes, Global Environ. Chang.,
22, 823–835, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004, 2012.
Jonkman, S. N., Kok, M., Van Ledden, M., and Vrijling, J. K.: Risk-based
design of flood defence systems: a preliminary analysis of the optimal
protection level for the New Orleans metropolitan area, J. Flood Risk Manag.,
2, 170–181, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01036.x, 2009.
Kheradmand, S., Seidou, O., Konte, D., and Barmou Batoure, M. B.: Evaluation
of adaptation options to flood risk in a probabilistic framework, J. Hydrol.,
19, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.07.001, 2018.
Knoeff, H.: Factsheet indirecte mechanismen, Deltares, Delft, the
Netherlands, 11200574-007-GEO-0001, 2017.
Kok, M., Jongejan, R., Nieuwjaar, M., and Tanczos, I.: Fundamentals
of Flood Protection, Ministery of Infrastructure and the Environment and
Expertise Network for Flood Protection (ENW), Breda, the Netherlands, ISBN 978-90-8902-160-1, 2016.
Lanzafame, R. C.: Reliability Analysis of the Influence of Vegetation on
Levee Performance, PhD thesis, University of California, Berkley United
States, 2017.
Lendering, K., Schweckendiek, T., and Kok, M.: Quantifying the failure
probability of a canal levee, Georisk, 12, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2018.1426865, 2018.
Lenders, H., Huijbregts, M., Aarts, B., and Van Turnhout, C.: Assessing the
degree of preservation of landscape, natural and cultural-historical values
in river dike reinforcement planning in the Netherlands, Regul. River., 15,
325–337, 1999.
Maris, A. G., De Blocq van Kuffeler, V. J. P., Harmsen, W. J. H., Jansen, P. P.,
Nijhoff, G. P., Thijsse, J. T., Verloren van Themaat, R., de Vries, J. W., and Van
der Wal, L. T.: Rapport Deltacommissie, Deel 1, Eindverslag en
interimadviezen, Delta Committee, Delft, the Netherlands,
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0e28dfd8-4e67-4267-a443-54b74a062bcb (last
access: 21 February 2019), 1961.
Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu: Regeling van de Minister van
Infrastructuur en Milieu, van 2 december 2016, nr. IENM/BSK-2016/283517, ter
uitvoering van de artikelen 2.3, eerste lid, en 2.12, vierde lid, van de
Waterwet, houdende regels voor het bepalen van de hydraulische belasting en
de sterkte en procedurele regels voor de beoordeling van de veiligheid van
primaire waterkeringen, Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu, the Hague,
the Netherlands, 2016.
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Voorschrift
Toetsen op Veiligheid Primaire Waterkeringen, Ministerie van Verkeer en
Waterstaat, Delft, the Netherlands, ISBN 978-90-369-5762, 2007.
NEN: NEN 3651:2012 nl: Additional requirements for pipelines in or nearby
important public works, NEN, Delft, the Netherlands, ICS 23.040.10; 93.010,
2012.
Niedermeier, A., Hoja, D., and Lehner, S.: Topography and morphodynamics in
the German Bight using SAR and optical remote sensing data, Ocean Dynam., 55,
100–109, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-005-0114-2, 2005.
Orlandini, S., Moretti, G., and Albertson, J. D.: Evidence of an emerging
levee failure mechanism causing disastrous floods in Italy, Water Resour.
Res., 51, 7995–8011, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017426, 2015.
Pontee, N., Narayan, S., Beck, M. W., and Hosking, A. H.: Nature-based
solutions: lessons from around the world, P. I. Civil Eng.-Mar. En., 169,
29–36, https://doi.org/10.1680/jmaen.15.00027, 2016.
Rackwitz, R. and Flessler, B.: Structural reliability under combined random
load sequences, Comput. Struct., 9, 489–494,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0045-7949(78)90046-9, 1978.
Rijkswaterstaat: Handreiking ontwerpen met overstromingskansen:
Veiligheidsfactoren en belastingen bij nieuwe overstromingskansnormen
OI2014v4, Rijkswaterstaat Water, Verkeer en Leefomgeving, Utrecht, the
Netherlands, 2017.
Sellmeijer, H., de la Cruz, J. L., van Beek, V. M., and Knoeff, H.:
Fine-tuning of the backward erosion piping model through small-scale,
medium-scale and IJkdijk experiments, Eur. J. Environ. Civ. En., 15,
1139–1154, https://doi.org/10.1080/19648189.2011.9714845, 2011.
Slomp, R., Knoeff, H., Bizzarri, A., Bottema, M., and de Vries, W.:
Probabilistic flood defence assessment tools, E3S Web of Conferences, 7,
03015, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160703015, 2016.
Stalenberg, B.: Innovative flood defences in highly urbanised water cities,
in: Climate Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities, edited by: Aerts,
J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M. J., Ward, P. J. and Dircke, P., Earthscan, Oxon, UK, 145–164, 2013.
Steenbergen, H., Lassing, B., Vrouwenvelder, A., and Waarts, P.: Reliability
analysis of flood defence systems, Heron, 49,
http://heronjournal.nl/49-1/3.html (last access: 21 February 2019), 2004.
Stichting Toegepast Onderzoek Waterbeheer: Bomen op en nabij waterkeringen,
achtergrondrapport, STOWA, Utrecht, the Netherlands, ISBN 90-5773-086.3,
2000.
Stichting Toegepast Onderzoek Waterbeheer: Addendum op de leidraad toetsen op
veiligheid regionale waterkeringen betreffende de boezemkaden, STOWA,
Amersfoort, the Netherlands, ISBN 978.90.5773.481.6, 2010.
Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen (TAW): Leidraad voor het ontwerpen
van rivierdijken: Deel 1, Bovenrivierengebied, s-Gravenhage, the
Netherlands, ISBN 90-12-05169-X, 1985.
Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen (TAW): Handreiking Constructief
ontwerpen: Onderzoek en berekening naar het constructief ontwerp van de
dijkversterking, Delft, the Netherlands, L9, 1994.
Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen (TAW): Technisch Rapport
Golfoploop en Golfoverslag bij Dijken, Delft, the Netherlands, TR33,
2002.
Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen (TAW): Technisch Rapport
Waterspanningen bij dijken, Delft, the Netherlands, ISBN-90-369-5565-3,
2004.
Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Bouma, T. J., Herman, P. M. J., Ysebaert, T., and
De Vriend, H. J.: Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global
change, Nature, 504, 79–83, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12859, 2013.
Van, M.: New approach for uplift induced slope failure, in: Proceedings of
the 15th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation
Engineering, Istanbul, 27–31 August 2001, Turkey, 2285–2288, 2001.
van Baars, S. and van Kempen, I.: The causes and mechanisms of historical
dike failures in the Netherlands, E-Water, 2009/06, 1–14, available at:
http://www.dwa.de/portale/ewa/ewa.nsf/home?readform&objectid=8428F628AB57BECFC125766C003024B6
(last access: 21 February 2019), 2009.
van der Flier, C. and Thomsen, A.: Life cycle of dwellings: Analysis and
assessment of demolition by Dutch housing associations, International
Conference ENHR, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 2–5 July 2006, Workshop 7: Physical
Aspects of Design and Regeneration, 2006.
van der Meer, J. W., Allsop, N. W. H., Bruce, T., De Rouck, J., Kortenhaus,
A., Pullen, T., and Zanuttigh, B.: EurOtop 2016: Manual on wave overtopping
of sea defences and related structures, An overtopping manual largely based
on European research, but for worldwide application, Retrieved from: http://www.overtopping-manual.com/ (last access: 21 February 2019), 2016.
van Gelder, P., Buijs, F., Horst, W., Kanning, W., Mai Van, C.,
Rajabalinejad, M., de Boer, E., Gupta, S., Shams, R., van Erp, N., Gouldby
B., Kingston G., Sayers P., Wills M., Kortenhaus, A., and Lambrecht, H.:
Reliability analysis of flood defence structures and systems in Europe, in:
Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice, edited by: Samuals, P.,
Huntington, S., Allsop, W., and Harrop, J., CRC Press, London, UK, 603–611, 2009.
van Houwelingen, A. W.: BomenT fase 3, Gedetaileerde toets, dhV B.V.,
Amersfoort, the Netherlands, LW-AF20122371, 2012.
van Hoven, A.: Verderlingen kritisch overslagdebiet WTI2017, Deltares, Delft,
the Netherlands, 220086-005-HYE-0003, 2015.
van Loon-Steensma, J. M. and Kok, M.: Risk reduction by combining nature
values with flood protection?, E3S Web Conf., 7, 13003,
https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160713003, 2016.
van Loon-Steensma, J. M. and Vellinga, P.: Robust, multifunctional flood
protection zones in the Dutch rural riverine area, Nat. Hazard. Earth Sys.,
14, 1085–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1085-2014, 2014.
van Loon-Steensma, J. M., Schelfhout, H. A., and Vellinga, P.: Green
adaptation by innovative dike concepts along the Dutch Wadden Sea coast,
Environ. Sci. Policy, 44, 108–125, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.06.009, 2014.
van Loon-Steensma, J. M., Hu, Z., and Slim, P. A.: Modelled Impact of
Vegetation Heterogeneity and Salt-Marsh Zonation on Wave Damping, J. Coastal
Res., 32, 241-252, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-15-00095.1, 2016.
Van Veelen, P., Voorendt, M., and van der Zwet, C.: Design challenges of
multifunctional flood defences. A comparative approach to assess spatial and
structural integration, Research in Urbanism Series, 3, 275–292,
https://doi.org/10.7480/rius.3.841, 2015.
Voorendt, M. Z.: Design principles of multifunctional flood defences, PhD
thesis, Delft university of technology, Delft, the Netherlands, 342 pp.,
2017.
Vorogushyn, S., Merz, B., and Apel, H.: Development of dike fragility curves for piping
and micro-instability breach mechanisms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1383–1401,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1383-2009, 2009.
Vorogushyn, S., Merz, B., Lindenschmidt, K.-E., and Apel, H.: A new
methodology for flood hazard assessment considering dike breaches, Water
Resour. Res., 46, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008475, 2010.
Vrijling, J. K.: Probabilistic design of water defense systems in The
Netherlands, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 74, 337–344,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00082-5, 2001.
Vuik, V., van Vuren, S., Borsje, B. W., van Wesenbeeck, B. K., and Jonkman,
S. N.: Assessing safety of nature-based flood defenses: Dealing with extremes
and uncertainties, Coast. Eng., 139, 47–64,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2018.05.002, 2018.
Zanetti, C., Vennetier, M., Mériaux, P., Royet, P., and Provansal, M.:
Managing woody vegetation on earth dikes: Risks assessment and maintenance
solutions, Procedia Environ. Sci., 9, 196–200,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2011.11.030, 2011.
Short summary
Flood defences have the potential to be integrated with many other functions. While assessments of multifunctional dikes are usually conservative, using a probabilistic framework allows for synergies to be integrated and the risks to be made explicit. This change leads to a better perspective on the protection level of a flood defence and the effectiveness of reinforcements, allowing for better implementation of multifunctional elements on flood defences.
Flood defences have the potential to be integrated with many other functions. While assessments...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint