Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1167–1187, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1167-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Flood risk assessment and management
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1167–1187, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1167-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 17 Jun 2019
Research article | 17 Jun 2019
Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures
Menno W. Straatsma et al.
Related authors
Koen D. Berends, Menno W. Straatsma, Jord J. Warmink, and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk, but until recently it was not feasible to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of 12 interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.
Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Rens van Beek, Niko Wanders, Yoshihide Wada, Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Niels Drost, Ruud J. van der Ent, Inge E. M. de Graaf, Jannis M. Hoch, Kor de Jong, Derek Karssenberg, Patricia López López, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Oliver Schmitz, Menno W. Straatsma, Ekkamol Vannametee, Dominik Wisser, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2429–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
PCR-GLOBWB 2 is an integrated hydrology and water resource model that fully integrates water use simulation and consolidates all features that have been developed since PCR-GLOBWB 1 was introduced. PCR-GLOBWB 2 can have a global coverage at 5 arcmin resolution and supersedes PCR-GLOBWB 1, which has a resolution of 30 arcmin only. Comparing the 5 arcmin with 30 arcmin simulations using discharge data, we clearly find improvement in the model performance of the higher-resolution model.
Maarten G. Kleinhans, Lonneke Roelofs, Steven A. H. Weisscher, Ivar R. Lokhorst, and Lisanne Braat
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2021-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2021-75, 2021
Preprint under review for ESurf
Short summary
Short summary
Floodplain formation in estuaries limit the ebb and flood flow, reducing channel migration, and shortening the tidally-influenced reach. Vegetation establishment on bars reduces local flow velocity and concentrates flow into channels, while mud flats fill accommodation space and reduce channel migration. These results are based on experimental estuaries in the Metronome facility supported by numerical flow modelling.
Steven A. H. Weisscher, Marcio Boechat-Albernaz, Jasper R. F. W. Leuven, Wout M. Van Dijk, Yasuyuki Shimizu, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 955–972, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate and continuous data collection is challenging in physical scale experiments. A novel means to augment measurements is to numerically model flow over the experimental digital elevation maps. We tested this modelling approach for one tidal and two river scale experiments and showed that modelled water depth and flow velocity closely resemble the measurements. The implication is that conducting experiments requires fewer measurements and results in flow data of better overall quality.
Arya P. Iwantoro, Maarten van der Vegt, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 413–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-413-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the effect of tides on the morphodynamic evolution of bifurcations in tide-influenced deltas. Using results from a numerical morphodynamic model (Delft3D), we found that tides cause less asymmetric bifurcations and thereby keep both downstream channels open. Our results explain why avulsion rarely occurs in tide-influenced deltas, whereas it occurs more often in river-dominated deltas.
Koen D. Berends, Menno W. Straatsma, Jord J. Warmink, and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk, but until recently it was not feasible to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of 12 interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.
Jannis M. Hoch, Dirk Eilander, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Fedor Baart, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1723–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1723-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flood events are often complex in their origin and dynamics. The choice of computer model to simulate can hence determine which level of complexity can be represented. We here compare different models varying in complexity (hydrology with routing, 1-D routing, 1D/2D hydrodynamics) and assess how model choice influences the accuracy of results. This was achieved by using GLOFRIM, a model coupling framework. Results show that accuracy depends on the model choice and the output variable considered.
Gonzalo Duró, Alessandra Crosato, Maarten G. Kleinhans, and Wim S. J. Uijttewaal
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-933-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-933-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The challenge to measure three-dimensional bank irregularities in a mid-sized river reach can be quickly solved in the field flying a drone with ground-control points and later applying structure from motion photogrammetry. We tested a simple approach that achieved sufficient resolution and accuracy to identify the full bank erosion cycle, including undermining. This is an easy-to-use and quickly deployed survey alternative to measure bank erosion processes along extended distances.
Ivar R. Lokhorst, Lisanne Braat, Jasper R. F. W. Leuven, Anne W. Baar, Mijke van Oorschot, Sanja Selaković, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-883-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In estuaries, mud sedimentation enhances salt marsh accretion. Here we explore system-scale effects of plants and mud on planform shape and size of estuaries. We coupled Delft3D for hydromorphodynamics with our vegetation model and ran controls for comparison. Effects are greatest at the fluvial–tidal transition, where for the first time in a model, a bedload convergence zone formed. Regardless of local vegetation effects, mud and vegetation cause gradual filling of estuaries over time.
Jasper R. F. W. Leuven, Sanja Selaković, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 763–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-763-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-763-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports the along-channel variability in occurring bed levels as described by hypsometry in natural estuaries. We found a novel relation between the estuary planform shape and the hypsometric function shape, which implies that it is possible to characterise and predict subwater estuarine morphology and bed levels in data-poor environments.
Jasper H. J. Candel, Maarten G. Kleinhans, Bart Makaske, Wim Z. Hoek, Cindy Quik, and Jakob Wallinga
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 723–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-723-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-723-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we show how the Overijsselse Vecht river changed from a laterally stable to a meandering river ca. 500 years ago. We developed a methodology to reconstruct the historical discharge and found that the change in river style was caused by an increase in peak discharges. This increase was likely caused by the Little Ice Age and land use changes in the catchment (peat reclamation and exploitation). This study shows how river style changes as a result of discharge regime changes.
Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Rens van Beek, Niko Wanders, Yoshihide Wada, Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Niels Drost, Ruud J. van der Ent, Inge E. M. de Graaf, Jannis M. Hoch, Kor de Jong, Derek Karssenberg, Patricia López López, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Oliver Schmitz, Menno W. Straatsma, Ekkamol Vannametee, Dominik Wisser, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2429–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
PCR-GLOBWB 2 is an integrated hydrology and water resource model that fully integrates water use simulation and consolidates all features that have been developed since PCR-GLOBWB 1 was introduced. PCR-GLOBWB 2 can have a global coverage at 5 arcmin resolution and supersedes PCR-GLOBWB 1, which has a resolution of 30 arcmin only. Comparing the 5 arcmin with 30 arcmin simulations using discharge data, we clearly find improvement in the model performance of the higher-resolution model.
Maarten G. Kleinhans, Maarten van der Vegt, Jasper Leuven, Lisanne Braat, Henk Markies, Arjan Simmelink, Chris Roosendaal, Arjan van Eijk, Paul Vrijbergen, and Marcel van Maarseveen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 731–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-731-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-731-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Creating estuaries in the laboratory has been challenging. When the ebb and flood currents are driven by ebb and flood in the sea, they are too weak to move sand. Here we describe how the periodic tilting of an entire experimental set-up leads to ebb and flood currents with similar behaviour as in nature and with enough strength to move sand. This means that this novel set-up now allows for the creation of estuarine landscapes in experiments.
Jannis M. Hoch, Jeffrey C. Neal, Fedor Baart, Rens van Beek, Hessel C. Winsemius, Paul D. Bates, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3913–3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve flood hazard assessments, it is vital to model all relevant processes. We here present GLOFRIM, a framework for coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to increase the number of physical processes represented in hazard computations. GLOFRIM is openly available, versatile, and extensible with more models. Results also underpin its added value for model benchmarking, showing that not only model forcing but also grid properties and the numerical scheme influence output accuracy.
Lisanne Braat, Thijs van Kessel, Jasper R. F. W. Leuven, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 617–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-617-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Mud raises concern in the short-term management of estuaries, but it is not known whether cohesive mud affects the long-term development of estuaries. We discovered that a small supply of mud from the river confines the estuary by forming stable mudflats on the sides in centuries, whereas estuaries with only sand continue to grow. Mudflats also reduce the shifting of channels and bars. This implies that changes in mud supply in estuaries may have led to changes in shape and dynamics in the past.
F. Schuurman, M. G. Kleinhans, and H. Middelkoop
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 25–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-25-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-25-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the propagation of natural and human-induced perturbations in large braided sand-bed rivers using a physics-based 3-D model. The results show that the perturbations not only affect the local morphology but their effects amplify while propagating through the braided network. This occurs by destabilization of bifurcations in combination with reshaping of bars and branches. These results could have a major impact on the assessment of engineering measures in large braided sand-bed rivers.
W. A. Marra, S. J. McLelland, D. R. Parsons, B. J. Murphy, E. Hauber, and M. G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 389–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-389-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-389-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater seepage creates valleys with typical theater-shaped valley heads, which are found on Earth and on Mars. For a better interpretation of these systems, we conducted scale experiments on the formation such valleys. We find that entire landscapes, instead of just the shape of the valleys, provide insights into the source of groundwater. Landscapes filled with valleys indicate a local groundwater source in contrast to sparsely dissected landscapes formed by a distal source of groundwater.
M. G. Kleinhans, T.M. van Rosmalen, C. Roosendaal, and M. van der Vegt
Adv. Geosci., 39, 21–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-39-21-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-39-21-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Review article: Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta
Risk perception of local stakeholders on natural hazards: implications for theory and practice
Brief communication: Effective earthquake early warning systems: appropriate messaging and public awareness roles
Flood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case study
Review article: Brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan area (Campania, southern Italy): a critical review
Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France
Residential building stock modelling for mainland China targeted for seismic risk assessment
Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling
Flood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)
An inventory of Alpine drought impact reports to explore past droughts in a mountain region
The potential of machine learning for weather index insurance
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Indirect flood impacts and cascade risk across interdependent linear infrastructures
Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time: The availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh
The importance of raising risk awareness: lessons learned about risk awareness sessions from the Mediterranean region (North Morocco and West Sardinia, Italy)
Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models
Review article: A systematic review and future prospects of flood vulnerability indices
Interacting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam
Stochastic System Dynamics Modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment on a reservoir in the Italian Alps
Establishment and characteristics analysis of a crop–drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheat
Review article: Towards a context-driven research: a state-of-the-art review of resilience research on climate change
Spatialized flood resilience measurement in rapidly urbanized coastal areas with a complex semi-arid environment in northern Morocco
Strategies for adapting to hazards and environmental inequalities in coastal urban areas: what kind of resilience for these territories?
Are OpenStreetMap building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?
A simulation-optimization framework for post-disaster allocation of mental health resources
Assessing and zoning of typhoon storm surge risk with a geographic information system (GIS) technique: a case study of the coastal area of Huizhou
Regional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessments
Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland
Probabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networks
A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
Invited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientists
Design of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoes
Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches
Tropical drought risk: estimates combining gridded vulnerability and hazard data
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test
Brief Communication: Simple-INSYDE, development of a new tool for flood damage evaluation from an existing synthetic model
A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique
Trends in social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, China
Exploring the changes in risk perceptions and adaptation behaviors based on various socioeconomic characteristics before and after earthquake disasters – a case study in Taiwan
Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru
Flood vulnerability and risk assessment of urban traditional buildings in a heritage district of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
A generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regions
Natural hazard impacts on transport infrastructure in Russia
Spatial seismic hazard variation and adaptive sampling of portfolio location uncertainty in probabilistic seismic risk analysis
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland
Enhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principles
Network-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, Romania
A multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework for cultural heritage assets
Mia Wannewitz and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3285–3322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Focusing on Jakarta as a city with high flood risk and adaptation pressure, this study presents findings from a systematic literature review of adaptation options and the adaptation solution space to counter the city’s flood problem. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards protection against flooding, while soft and hybrid adaptation options are less considered. This significantly influences flood risk management, including its effectiveness and sustainability.
Mihai Ciprian Mărgărint, Mihai Niculiță, Giulia Roder, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3251–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Local stakeholders' knowledge plays a deciding role in emergencies, supporting rescue officers in natural hazard events; coordinating; and assisting, both physically and psychologically, the affected populations. Their risk perception was assessed using a questionnaire for an area in north-eastern Romania. The results show low preparedness and reveal substantial distinctions among stakeholders and different risks based on their cognitive and behavioral roles in their communities.
Meng Zhang, Xue Qiao, Barnabas C. Seyler, Baofeng Di, Yuan Wang, and Ya Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3243–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) can help reduce losses, but their effectiveness depends on adequate public perception and understanding of EEWSs. This study examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. We found a big gap existed between the EEWS's message, the public's perception of it, and their response. The study highlights the importance of gauging EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency.
Mohammad Shirvani and Georges Kesserwani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3175–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual countermeasure taken at the onset of a flooding event. The flood–pedestrian simulator simulates evacuation of people prior to and during a flood event. It provides information on the spatio-temporal responses of individuals, evacuation time, and possible safe destinations. This study demonstrates the simulator when considering more realistic human body and age characteristics and responses to floodwater.
Stefano Carlino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3097–3112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports a brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan district, where the presence of three active volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island) exposes this highly urbanized area to hazard of potential eruptions. I am trying to obtain new food for thought for the scientific community working to mitigate the volcanic risk of this area, revisiting about 40 years of debates around volcanic risk in Naples.
David Nortes Martínez, Frédéric Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, and Juliette Rouchier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3057–3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. We focus on flood damage induced by the interactions between economic activities. By modeling the production processes of a cooperative wine-making system, we show that these interactions are important depending on their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3031–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparisons with previous studies and yearbook records indicate the reliability of our model. The modelled results are openly accessible and can be conveniently updated when more detailed census or statistics data are available.
Elena Mondino, Anna Scolobig, Marco Borga, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2811–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Survey data collected over time can provide new insights on how different people respond to floods and can be used in models to study the complex coevolution of human–water systems. We present two methods to collect such data, and we compare the respective results. Risk awareness decreases only for women, while preparedness takes different trajectories depending on the damage suffered. These results support a more diverse representation of society in flood risk modelling and risk management.
Paula Freire, Marta Rodrigues, André B. Fortunato, and Alberto Freitas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2503–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a risk assessment approach addressing the two main natural risks that affect agricultural estuarine lowlands: the scarcity of freshwater for irrigation and marine submersion. The approach is applied to an important agricultural area located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results show that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk mainly when the possible impact of climate change in risk levels is considered.
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) archives drought impact reports across the European Alpine region with an increasing number of impacts over time. The most affected sectors are agriculture and livestock farming and public water supply, for which management strategies are essential for future climate regimes. We show spatial heterogeneity and seasonal differences between the impacted sectors and between impacts triggered by soil moisture drought and hydrological drought.
Luigi Cesarini, Rui Figueiredo, Beatrice Monteleone, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2379–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2379-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather index insurance is an innovative program used to manage the risk associated with natural disasters, providing instantaneous financial support to the insured party. This paper proposes a methodology that exploits the power of machine learning to identify extreme events for which a payout from the insurance could be delivered. The improvements achieved using these algorithms are an encouraging step forward in the promotion and implementation of this insurance instrument.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-200, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision-makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Chiara Arrighi, Maria Pregnolato, and Fabio Castelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1955–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Floods may affect critical infrastructure which provides essential services to people. We analyse the impact of floods on road networks and water supply systems, and we investigate how cascade effects propagate if interdependencies among networks are not considered. The analysis shows that if preparedness plans include information on accessibility to key sections of water supply plants, less people suffer from water shortage in case of flood. The method is tested in the city of Florence (Italy).
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elena Mondino, Maria Rusca, Emanuele Del Giudice, Johanna Mård, Elena Ridolfi, Anna Scolobig, and Elena Raffetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-177, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
COVID-19 is affecting humankind in an unprecedented way, and it is changing how people perceive multiple risks. In this paper, we compare public risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden in two different phases of the ongoing pandemic. We found that people are more worried about risks related to recently experienced events. This finding is in line with the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind.
Donghoon Lee, Hassan Ahmadul, Jonathan Patz, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1807–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This article assesses the thematic and composite social and health vulnerability of Bangladesh to floods. Tailored vulnerability, weighted by flood forecast and satellite inundation, can be used to predict the massive impacts of the August 2017 flood event. This approach has several advantages and practical implications, including the potential to promote targeted and coordinated disaster management and health practices.
Ante Ivčević, Hubert Mazurek, Lionel Siame, Raquel Bertoldo, Vania Statzu, Kamal Agharroud, Isabel Estrela Rego, Nibedita Mukherjee, Matthieu Kervyn, and Olivier Bellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-159, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The results from two Mediterranean case studies, North Morocco and West Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions in risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1513–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The review of flood vulnerability indices revealed that (1) temporal dynamic aspects were often disregarded, (2) coping and adaptive capacity indicators were frequently ignored, as obtaining these data demand time and effort, and (3) most studies neither applied sensitivity (90.5 %) or uncertainty analyses (96.8 %) nor validated the results (86.3 %). The study highlights the importance of addressing these gaps to produce scientifically rigorous and comparable research.
Kai Wan Yuen, Tang Thi Hanh, Vu Duong Quynh, Adam D. Switzer, Paul Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1473–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used flow diagrams to represent the ways in which anthropogenic land use and natural hazards have affected rice production in the two
mega-deltas of Vietnam. Anthropogenic developments meant to improve productivity may create negative feedbacks on rice production and quality. Natural hazards further amplify problems created by human activities. A systems-thinking approach can yield nuanced perspectives for tackling environmental challenges.
Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-114, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the S.Giustina reservoir (Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for both water stored and used for hydropower production, especially in spring and summer. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and hence on the hydroelectric production from the S.Giustina reservoir.
Yanshen Wu, Hao Guo, Anyu Zhang, and Jing'ai Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1209–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1209-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the quantitative degree of spatial analysis of vulnerability, we construct grid-scale drought vulnerability curves of European winter wheat based on model simulation, and we discuss their spatial differences through feature points and clustering features. These vulnerability curves show zonal differences, which can be divided into five loss types, and the vulnerability increases from south to north. The results can provide guidance for regionalized risk management.
Ringo Ossewaarde, Tatiana Filatova, Yola Georgiadou, Andreas Hartmann, Gül Özerol, Karin Pfeffer, Peter Stegmaier, Rene Torenvlied, Mascha van der Voort, Jord Warmink, and Bas Borsje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this paper is to review and structure current developments in resilience research in the field of climate change studies, in terms of the approaches, definitions, models, and commitments that are typical for naturalist and constructivist research and propose a research agenda of topics distilled from current developments in resilience research.
Narjiss Satour, Otmane Raji, Nabil El Moçayd, Ilias Kacimi, and Nadia Kassou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1101–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, 2021
Nathalie Long, Pierre Cornut, and Virginia Kolb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1087–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1087-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme events and enforces the development of adaptation strategies to face coastal risk. These strategies modify the inequalities barely considered during the decision-making process and question the resilience of these territories. On the French Atlantic coast, the study reveals that the
managed retreatstrategy seems the most sustainable over time, while the
holding the coastlinestrategy reinforces inequalities and costs for the whole society.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Stephen Cunningham, Steven Schuldt, Christopher Chini, and Justin Delorit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-402, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The severity of disaster-induced mental health illness outcomes varies based on factors such as socioeconomic standing, age, and degree of exposure. This research proposes a resource allocation framework allowing decision-makers the capability to assess the capacity and scalability of early, intermediate, and long-term mental health treatment and recovery. Ultimately, this framework can inform policy and operational decisions based on community needs and constrained resources post-disaster.
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Zhenfeng Yao, Jia Gao, Enjin Zhao, and Lizhe Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 439–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-439-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a comprehensive assessment and zonation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of storm surge caused by the designed typhoon scenarios in the coastal area of Huizhou. The risk maps can help decision-makers to develop evacuation strategies to minimize civilian casualties. The risk analysis can be utilized to identify risk regions to reduce economic losses. The proposed methodology and procedure can be applied to any coastal city in China for making risk assessments.
Samuel Eberenz, Samuel Lüthi, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 393–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Asset damage caused by tropical cyclones is often computed based on impact functions mapping wind speed to damage. However, a lack of regional impact functions can lead to a substantial bias in tropical cyclone risk estimates. Here, we present regionally calibrated impact functions, as well as global risk estimates. Our results are relevant for researchers, model developers, and practitioners in the context of global risk assessments, climate change adaptation, and physical risk disclosure.
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
How representative are local building insurers' claims to assess winter windstorm risk? In our case study of Zurich, we use a risk model for windstorm building damages and compare three different inputs: insurance claims and historical and probabilistic windstorm datasets. We find that long-term risk is more robustly assessed based on windstorm datasets than on claims data only. Our open-access method allows European building insurers to complement their risk assessment with modelling results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are rare events; however, they may cause significant economic losses. This work explores a specific type of insurance (parametric insurance) applied to such events. Unlike traditional insurance where payouts occur after often lengthy loss assessments, this type of insurance makes automatic and prompt payments on the basis of the eruption attaining threshold values for objective and easily measurable characteristics (height and direction of the eruption column).
Stefan Oberndorfer, Philip Sander, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
Alexandra Nauditt, Kerstin Stahl, Erasmo Rodríguez, Christian Birkel, Rosa Maria Formiga-Johnsson, Kallio Marko, Hamish Hann, Lars Ribbe, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, and Joschka Thurner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Recurrent droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries. We used gridded drought hazard and vulnerability data sets to map drought risk in four mesoscale rural tropical study regions in Latin America and Vietnam/Cambodia. Our risk maps clearly identified drought risk hotspots and displayed spatial and sector-wise distribution of hazard and vulnerability. As results were confirmed by local stakeholders our approach provides relevant information for drought managers in the Tropics.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Huaming Yu, Yuhang Shen, Ryan M. Kelly, Xin Qi, Kejian Wu, Songlin Li, Haiqing Yu, and Xianwen Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2447–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2447-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges for coastal cities. The indicator system is applied to Shenzhen, China, and socioeconomic impacts are discovered in the results. Exposure, sensitivity, and resilience all show an increasing trend from 1986 to 2016, as resilience accounts for the largest increase and is connected to a decreasing social vulnerability trend.
Tzu-Ling Chen, Tzu-Yuan Chao, and Hao-Teng Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2433–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2433-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Although disaster experience does indeed play an important role in helping people become aware of earthquake risk, disaster experience does not necessarily increase people’s willingness to retrofit their houses. People with higher education and certain occupations represent those who might have more available resources, and therefore they might become more willing to prepare for and respond to disasters.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Dina D'Ayala, Kai Wang, Yuan Yan, Helen Smith, Ashleigh Massam, Valeriya Filipova, and Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A localized empirical model consisting of multilevel parameters has been built to evaluate the flood vulnerability of residential buildings in a heritage community of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A new economic loss model is developed to quantify the flood risk in terms of replacement cost, taking into account both specific vulnerability and a normalized depth–damage ratio function. The findings provide multiscale flood-resistant strategies for the protection of individual residential buildings.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Elena Petrova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1969–1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1969-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using the information of the author's database, contributions of natural hazards and adverse weather to occurrences of different types of transport accidents and traffic disruptions including road, railway, air, and water transport were revealed. Regional differences in the risk of transport accidents and traffic disruptions caused by adverse natural impacts between Russian federal regions were found. The resulting maps were created and analyzed. Regions most at risk were identified.
Christoph Scheingraber and Martin Käser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1903–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1903-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is widely used in the insurance industry to model losses to insured portfolios by earthquake events. Risk items are often only known to be located within an administrative geographical zone, but precise coordinates remain unknown to the modeler. We analyze spatial seismic hazard and loss rate variation inside administrative zones in western Indonesia. Building upon this, we present a novel framework for efficient treatment of portfolio location uncertainty.
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
Dragos Toma-Danila, Iuliana Armas, and Alexandru Tiganescu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1421–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1421-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1421-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards have an increasing impact on transportation networks. In order to analyze it we developed Network-risk – an open toolbox for ArcGIS. The toolbox links input data such as network datasets (also OpenStreetMap – OSM – data), traffic values or segments which can be affected, determining the difficulty to reach an area and enabling evaluation of socioeconomic implications. By testing Network-risk for Bucharest we show areas difficult to reach by emergency units in earthquakes.
Giacomo Sevieri, Carmine Galasso, Dina D'Ayala, Richard De Jesus, Andres Oreta, Mary Earl Daryl A. Grio, and Rhodella Ibabao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1391–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1391-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1391-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-hazard risk assessment of cultural heritage assets is of primary importance in natural-hazard-prone areas, particularly for the prioritization of disaster risk reduction and resilience-enhancing strategies. This paper introduces a multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework specifically developed for cultural heritage assets. The proposed framework relies on a multi-level rapid-visual-survey form for the multi-hazard data collection and risk prioritization of case-study assets.
Cited articles
Ackerman, C. T.: HEC-GeoRAS, GIS tools for support of HEC-RAS using ArcGIS,
USGS, Davis, USA, CACPD-83, 242, 2011.
Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., Roo, A., Salamon, P.,
Wyser, K., and Feyen, L.: Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer
world, Earth's Future, 5, 171–182, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000485, 2016.
Ansell, C. and Gash, A.: Collaborative Governance in Theory and Practice,
J. Publ. Adm. Res. Theor., 18, 543–571, https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/mum032, 2008.
Asaeda, T., Rashid, M. H., and Abu Bakar, R.: Dynamic Modelling of Soil
Nitrogen Budget and Vegetation Colonization in Sediment Bars of a Regulated
River, River Res. Appl., 31, 470–484, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.2802, 2014.
Ayres, A., Gerdes, H., Goeller, B., Lago, M., Catalinas, M., García
Cantón, Á., Brouwer, R., Sheremet, O., Vermaat, J., Angelopoulos,
N., and Cowx, I.: Inventory of river restoration measures: effects, costs
and benefits, eport REFORM-D1.4, 96 pp., available at: https://reformrivers.eu/inventory-river-restoration-measures-effects-costs-and-benefits (last access: 13 June 2019), 2014.
Baptist, M. J., Penning, W. E., Duel, H., Smits, A. J. M., Geerling, G. W.,
Van der Lee, G. E. M., and Van Alphen, J. S. L.: Assessment of the effects
of cyclic floodplain rejuvenation on flood levels and biodiversity along the
Rhine River, River Res. Appl., 20, 285–297, 2004.
Basisadministratie adressen en gebouwen (National database
addresses and buildings): http://www.kadaster.nl/BAG, last access: 28 November 2016 (in Dutch).
Becu, N., Perez, P., Walker, A., Barreteau, O., and Page, C. L.: Agent based
simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand:
Description of the CATCHSCAPE model, Ecol. Model., 170, 319–331,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00236-9, 2003.
Bernhardt, E. S., Palmer, M. A., Allan, J. D., Alexander, G., Barnas, K.,
Brooks, S., Carr, J., Clayton, S., Dahm, C., Follstad-Shah, J., Galat, D.,
Gloss, S., Goodwin, P., Hart, D., Hassett, B., Jenkinson, R., Katz, S.,
Kondolf, G. M., Lake, P. S., Lave, R., Meyer, J. L., O'Donnell, T. K.,
Pagano, L., Powell, B., and Sudduth, E.: Synthesizing U.S. River Restoration
Efforts, Science, 308, 636–637, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1109769, 2005.
Borowski, I.: Social Learning Beyond Multistakeholder Platforms: A Case
Study on the Elbe River Basin, Soc. Nat. Resour., 23, 1002–1012, https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920903204307, 2010.
Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Hanson, S., Brundrit, G., Dearing, J. A.,
Dickson, M. E., Gallop, S. L., Gao, S., Haigh, I. D., Hinkel, J.,
Jiménez, J. A., Klein, R. J. T., Kron, W., Lázár, A. N., Neves,
C. F., Newton, A., Pattiaratachi, C., Payo, A., Pye, K.,
Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Siddall, M., Shareef, A., Tompkins, E. L.,
Vafeidis, A. T., van Maanen, B., Ward, P. J., and Woodroffe, C. D.: Shifting
perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4,
752–755, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2344, 2014.
Buijs, A. E.: Public support for river restoration. A mixed-method study
into local residents' support for and framing of river management and
ecological restoration in the Dutch floodplains, J. Environ. Manage., 90,
2680–2689, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.02.006, 2009.
Buijse, A. D., Coops, H., Staras, M., Jans, L. H., Van Geest, G. J., Grift,
R. E., Ibelings, B. W., Oosterberg, W., and Roozen, F.: Restoration
strategies for river floodplains along large lowland rivers in Europe,
Freshwater Biol., 47, 889–907, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2427.2002.00915.x, 2002.
Camporeale, C., Perucca, E., Ridolfi, L., and Gurnell, A. M.: Modeling The
Interactions Between River Morphodynamics And Riparian Vegetation, Rev.
Geophys., 51, 379–414, https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20014, 2013.
Cheong, S.-M., Silliman, B., Wong, P. P., van Wesenbeeck, B., Kim, C.-K.,
and Guannel, G.: Coastal adaptation with ecological engineering, Nat.
Clim. Change, 3, 787–791, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1854, 2013.
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and
future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016.
Deltaprogramma: Deltaprogramma 2017: Werk aan de delta, opgaven verbinden,
samen op koers, Ministry of Infrastucture and Environment/Ministry of
Economic Affairs, The Hague, the Netherlands, report dp2017, 99 pp., 2017.
Deltares: Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite: user manual, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, Manual version 1.1.0, 384 pp., 2016.
De Nooij, R. J. W., Lenders, H. J. R., Leuven, R. S. E. W., De Blust, G.,
Geilen, N., Goldschmidt, B., Muller, S., Poudevigne, I., and Nienhuis, P.
H.: BIO-SAFE: assessing the impacts of physical reconstruction on protected
and endangered species, River Res. Appl., 20, 299–313, 2004.
de Winter, R. C. and Ruessink, B. G.: Sensitivity analysis of climate
change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast,
Climatic Change, 141, 685–701, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1922-3, 2017.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Yan, K., Brandimarte,
L., and Blöschl, G.: Debates – Perspectives on socio-hydrology:
Capturing feedbacks between physical and social processes, Water Resour.
Res., 51, 4770–4781, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016416, 2015.
Fliervoet, J. M. and van den Born, R. J. G.: From implementation towards
maintenance: sustaining collaborative initiatives for integrated floodplain
management in the Netherlands, Int. J. Water Resour.
D., 33, 570–590, https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2016.1200962, 2017.
Fliervoet, J. M., Van den Born, R. J. G., Smits, A. J. M., and Knippenberg,
L.: Combining safety and nature: A multi-stakeholder perspective on
integrated floodplain management, J. Environ. Manage., 128, 1033–1042,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.06.023, 2013.
Frings, R. M., Berbee, B. M., Erkens, G., Kleinhans, M. G., and Gouw, M. J.
P.: Human-induced changes in bed shear stress and bed grain size in the
River Waal (The Netherlands) during the past 900 years, Earth Surf.
Proc. Land., 34, 503–514, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1746, 2009.
Geerling, G. W., Kater, E., van den Brink, C., Baptist, M. J., Ragas, A. M.
J., and Smits, A. J. M.: Nature rehabilitation by floodplain excavation: The
hydraulic effect of 16 years of sedimentation and vegetation succession
along the Waal River, NL, Geomorphology, 99, 317–328,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.11.011, 2008.
Giosan, L., Syvitski, J., Constantinescu, S., and Day, J.: Climate change:
Protect the world's deltas, Nature, 516, 31–33, https://doi.org/10.1038/516031a, 2014.
Grothmann, T. and Reusswig, F.: People at Risk of Flooding: Why Some
Residents Take Precautionary Action While Others Do Not, Nat. Hazards, 38,
101–120, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8604-6, 2006.
Hegnauer, M., Beersma, J., Van den Boogaard, H. F. P., Buishand, T. A., and
Passchier, R. H.: Generator of rainfall and discharge extremes (GRADE) for
the Rhine and Meuse basins, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, report 1209424-004, 84 pp., 2014.
Hering, D., Borja, A., Carstensen, J., Carvalho, L., Elliott, M., Feld, C.
K., Heiskanen, A.-S., Johnson, R. K., Moe, J., Pont, D., Solheim, A. L., and
de Bund, W. V.: The European Water Framework Directive at the age of 10: A
critical review of the achievements with recommendations for the future,
Sci. Total Environ., 408, 4007–4019,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.05.031, 2010.
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol,
R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.:
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise,
P. NatL. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111, 2014.
Hübner, C., Ostrowski, M., and Haase, M.: nofdp IDSS-an open source flood control planning Decision Support System, in: 23rd International Conference on Informatics for Environmental Protection, Environmental Informatics and Industrial Ecology, Environmental Informatics and Industrial Environmental Protection: Concepts, Methods and Tools, 9–11 September 2009, Berlin, Germany, edited by: Wohlgemuth, V., Page, B., and Voigt, K., Shaker Verlag, Aachen, Germany, 87–96,
2009.
Jaspers, F. G. W.: Institutional arrangements for integrated river basin
management, Water Policy, 5, 77–90, 2003.
Jong, P. and Brink, M. V. D.: Between tradition and innovation: developing
Flood Risk Management Plans in the Netherlands, J. Flood Risk
Manag., 10, 155–163, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12070, 2017.
Kind, J. M.: Economically efficient flood protection standards for the
Netherlands, J. Flood Risk Manag., 7, 103–117, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12026, 2014.
Koopman, K. R., Straatsma, M. W., Augustijn, D. C. M., Breure, A. M.,
Lenders, H. J. R., Stax, S. J., and Leuven, R. S. E. W.: Quantifying biomass
production for assessing ecosystem services of riverine landscapes, Sci.
Total Environ., 624, 1577–1585,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.044, 2018.
Le Bars, D., Drijfhout, S., and De Vries, H.: A high-end sea level rise
probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss,
Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 044013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512, 2017.
Lenders, H. J. R., Leuven, R. S. E. W., Nienhuis, P. H., De Nooij, R. J. W.,
and Van Rooij, S. A. M.: BIO-SAFE: a method for evaluation of biodiversity
values on the basis of political and legal criteria, Landscape Urban Plan.,
55, 121–137, 2001.
Makaske, B., Maas, G. J., Van den Brink, N. G., and Wolfert, H. P.: The
influence of floodplain vegetation succession on hydraulic roughness: is
ecosystem rehabilitation in Dutch embanked floodplains compatible with flood
safety standards?, Ambio, 40, 370–376, 2011.
Marijnissen, R., Kok, M., Kroeze, C., and van Loon-Steensma, J.: Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 737–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-737-2019, 2019.
Mechler, R. and Bouwer, L. M.: Understanding trends and projections of
disaster losses and climate change: is vulnerability the missing link?,
Climatic Change, 133, 23–35, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1141-0, 2015.
Middelkoop, H.: Reconstructing floodplain sedimentation rates from heavy
metal profiles by inverse modelling, Hydrol. Process., 16, 47–64,
2002.
Middelkoop, H. and Van Haselen, C. O. G.: Twice a river: Rhine and Meuse in the Netherlands, RIZA, Arnhem, the Netherlands, report 99.003, 1999.
Mostert, E., Pahl-Wostl, C., Rees, Y., Searle, B., Tàbara, D., and
Tippett, J.: Social Learning in European River-Basin Management Barriers and
Fostering Mechanisms from 10 River Basins, Ecol. Soc., 12, 19, https://doi.org/10.5751/es-01960-120119, 2007.
Nardini, A. and Pavan, S.: River restoration: not only for the sake of
nature but also for saving money while addressing flood risk. A
decision-making framework applied to the Chiese River (Po basin, Italy),
J. Flood Risk Manag., 5, 111–133, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01132.x, 2012.
Newman, J. P., Maier, H. R., Riddell, G. A., Zecchin, A. C., Daniell, J. E.,
Schaefer, A. M., van Delden, H., Khazai, B., O'Flaherty, M. J., and Newland,
C. P.: Review of literature on decision support systems for natural hazard
risk reduction: Current status and future research directions, Environ.
Model. Softw., 96, 378–409, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.042,
2017.
Pardaens, A. K., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., and de Gusmão,
D.: Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with
large greenhouse gas emission reductions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12604, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047678, 2011.
Postek, K., den Hertog, D., Kind, J., and Pustjens, C.: Adjustable robust
strategies for flood protection, Omega, 82, 142–154,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2017.12.009, 2018.
Pratt Miles, J. D.: Designing Collaborative Processes for Adaptive
Management Four Structures for Multistakeholder Collaboration, Ecol. Soc.,
18, 5, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05709-180405, 2013.
Robinson, C. J., Margerum, R. D., Koontz, T. M., Moseley, C., and Lurie, S.:
Policy-Level Collaboratives for Environmental Management at the Regional
Scale: Lessons and Challenges From Australia and the United States, Soc.
Nat. Resour., 24, 849–859, https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2010.487848, 2011.
Rosenberg, S. and Margerum, R. D.: Landowner motivations for watershed
restoration: lessons from five watersheds, J. Environ. Plann.
Man., 51, 477–496, https://doi.org/10.1080/09640560802116962, 2008.
Samsura, D. A. A., van der Krabben, E., and van Deemen, A. M. A.: A game
theory approach to the analysis of land and property development processes,
Land Use Policy, 27, 564–578,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.07.012, 2010.
Sanjaya, K. and Asaeda, T.: Application and assessment of a dynamic
riparian vegetation model to predict the spatial distribution of vegetation
in two Japanese river systems, J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 16,
1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2017.05.002, 2017.
Schielen, R. M. J. and Gijsbers, P. J. A.: DSS-large rivers: developing a
DSS under changing societal requirements, Phys. Chem.
Earth Pt. A/B/C, 28, 635–645,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(03)00109-8, 2003.
Scholten, M. and Stout, J.: Dataprotocol Baseline 5.2.1, Rijkswaterstaat
Waterdienst, Deltares, Lelystad, Delft, the Netherlands, 111 pp., 2013.
Scholten, M. and Stout, J.: Handleiding Baseline 5.2.3, Baseline
5.2.3 manual, Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst/Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, version 1.8, 121, 2014 (in Dutch).
Silva, W., Dijkman, J. P. M., and Loucks, D. P.: Flood management options
for The Netherlands, International Journal of River Basin Management, 2,
101–112, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2004.9635225, 2004.
Sloff, K., Van der Sligte, R., and Ottevanger, W.: Morfologische pakketsom
Waal: morfologische effecten Ruimte-voor-de-Rivier maatregelen, Deltares,
Delft, the Netherlands, report 1208454-000, 188 pp., 2014.
Stanford, J. A., Ward, J. V., Liss, W. J., Frissell, C. A., Williams, R. N.,
Lichatowich, J. A., and Coutant, C. C.: A general protocol for restoration
of regulated rivers, Regul. River., 12, 391–413, https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1646(199607)12:4/5<391::aid-rrr436>3.0.co;2-4, 1996.
Stienstra, M. G.: Actualisatie bodemzoneringskaart, CSO-Adviesbureau,
Deventer, the Netherlands, report 09K206.R01/6, 47 pp., 2011.
Straatsma, M. W. and Kleinhans, M. G.: Flood hazard reduction from
automatically applied landscaping measures in RiverScape, a Python package
coupled to a two-dimensional flow model, Environ. Model. Softw., 101,
102–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.12.010, 2018.
Straatsma, M. W., Bloecker, A. M., Lenders, H. J. R., Leuven, R. S. E. W.,
and Kleinhans, M. G.: Biodiversity recovery following delta-wide measures
for flood risk reduction, Sci. Adv., 3, e1602762, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1602762, 2017.
Strager, M. P. and Rosenberger, R. S.: Incorporating stakeholder
preferences for land conservation: Weights and measures in spatial MCA,
Ecol. Econ., 57, 627–639, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.05.015,
2006.
Tessler, Z. D., Vörösmarty, C. J., Grossberg, M., Gladkova, I.,
Aizenman, H., Syvitski, J. P. M., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E.: Profiling risk
and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world, Science, 349, 638–643, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3574, 2015.
Tockner, K. and Stanford, J. A.: Riverine flood plains: present state and
future trends, Environ. Conserv., 29, 308–330, 2002.
UGRID Conventions: http://ugrid-conventions.github.io/ugrid-conventions/,
last access: 17 November 2016.
Van Alphen, J.: The Delta Programme and updated flood risk management
policies in the Netherlands, J. Flood Risk Manag., 9, 310–319, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12183, 2016.
van Oorschot, M., Kleinhans, M., Buijse, T., Geerling, G., and Middelkoop,
H.: Combined effects of climate change and dam construction on riverine
ecosystems, Ecol. Eng., 120, 329–344,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2018.05.037, 2018.
van Pelt, S. C., Beersma, J. J., Buishand, T. A., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., and Kabat, P.: Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4517–4530, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4517-2012, 2012.
Van Stokkom, H. T. C., Smits, A. J. M., and Leuven, R. S. E. W.: Flood
defense in the Netherlands a new era, a new approach, Water Int.,
30, 76–87, 2005.
Van Vuren, S., Paarlberg, A., and Havinga, H.: The aftermath of “Room for
the River” and restoration works: Coping with excessive maintenance
dredging, J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 9, 172–186,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2015.02.001, 2015.
Verbrugge, L. N. H., Ganzevoort, W., Fliervoet, J. M., Panten, K., and van
den Born, R. J. G.: Implementing participatory monitoring in river
management: The role of stakeholders' perspectives and incentives, J.
Environ. Manage., 195, 62–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.11.035,
2017.
Vorosmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D., Prusevich,
A., Green, P., Glidden, S., Bunn, S. E., Sullivan, C. A., Liermann, C. R.,
and Davies, P. M.: Global threats to human water security and river
biodiversity, Nature, 467, 555–561, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09440, 2010.
Vrijling, J. K.: Probabilistic design of water defense systems in The
Netherlands, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 74, 337–344,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00082-5, 2001.
Wahlstrom, M. and Guha-Sapir, D.: The human cost of weather-related
disasters 1995-2015, CRED, UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland, 30 pp., 2015.
Ward, J. V., Tockner, K., and Schiemer, F.: Biodiversity of floodplain river
ecosystems: ecotones and connectivity, Regul. River., 15,
125–139, 1999.
Ward, J. V., Tockner, K., Uehlinger, U., and Malard, F.: Understanding
natural patterns and processes in river corridors as the basis for effective
river restoration, Regul. River., 17, 311–323, https://doi.org/10.1002/rrr.646, 2001.
WEF: Global Risks Report 2018, 13th edition, World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland, 80 pp., 2018.
Special issue
Short summary
Climate adaptation of deltas is a hot topic given their high population density in many countries. We quantified trade-offs between hydraulics, potential biodiversity, implementation costs, and the number of land owners involved, using a newly developed tool called RiverScape. With our approach, we move towards finding integrated solutions at the scale of a large river in a delta to support the negotiations among stakeholders in the decision-making process.
Climate adaptation of deltas is a hot topic given their high population density in many...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint