Reconstruction and simulation of an extreme flood event in the Lago Maggiore catchment in 1868

Stucki, Peter; Bandhauer, Moritz; Heikkilä, Ulla; Rössler, Ole; Zappa, Massimiliano; Pfister, Lucas; Salvisberg, Melanie; Froidevaux, Paul; Martius, Olivia; Panziera, Luca; Brönnimann, Stefan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

Research article

|

23 Oct 2018

Research article |

| 23 Oct 2018

Reconstruction and simulation of an extreme flood event in the Lago Maggiore catchment in 1868

Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann

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Final revised paper (published on 23 Oct 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 22 May 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'paper 1868', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Jun 2018
- AC1: 'Reply to Reviewer 1', Peter Stucki, 27 Jul 2018
RC2: 'See attached pdf document', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Jun 2018
- AC2: 'Reply to Reviewer 2', Peter Stucki, 27 Jul 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (31 Jul 2018) by Joaquim G. Pinto

AR by Peter Stucki on behalf of the Authors (07 Aug 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Aug 2018) by Joaquim G. Pinto

RR by Andrea Buzzi (07 Sep 2018)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (26 Sep 2018)

ED: Publish as is (26 Sep 2018) by Joaquim G. Pinto

AR by Peter Stucki on behalf of the Authors (26 Sep 2018)

Short summary

A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.