Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

Coughlan de Perez, E.; van den Hurk, B.; van Aalst, M. K.; Jongman, B.; Klose, T.; Suarez, P.

doi:10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015

Articles | Volume 15, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 4

Research article

|

23 Apr 2015

Research article |

| 23 Apr 2015

Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

E. Coughlan de Perez, B. van den Hurk, M. K. van Aalst, B. Jongman, T. Klose, and P. Suarez

Viewed

Total article views: 11,772 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
5,429	6,134	209	11,772	195	275

HTML: 5,429
PDF: 6,134
XML: 209
Total: 11,772
BibTeX: 195
EndNote: 275

Views and downloads (calculated since 05 May 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2014	157	101	4	262
Jun 2014	47	69	0	116
Jul 2014	130	83	2	215
Aug 2014	260	73	1	334
Sep 2014	101	43	1	145
Oct 2014	39	46	1	86
Nov 2014	52	35	1	88
Dec 2014	74	34	2	110
Jan 2015	44	57	2	103
Feb 2015	21	46	0	67
Mar 2015	15	32	1	48
Apr 2015	72	99	7	178
May 2015	60	90	10	160
Jun 2015	55	103	2	160
Jul 2015	66	70	3	139
Aug 2015	33	50	3	86
Sep 2015	19	35	1	55
Oct 2015	34	35	3	72
Nov 2015	51	53	2	106
Dec 2015	27	61	5	93
Jan 2016	52	62	2	116
Feb 2016	27	74	1	102
Mar 2016	23	58	2	83
Apr 2016	18	49	1	68
May 2016	10	50	1	61
Jun 2016	14	21	1	36
Jul 2016	9	18	1	28
Aug 2016	8	16	0	24
Sep 2016	12	24	0	36
Oct 2016	12	39	0	51
Nov 2016	18	41	1	60
Dec 2016	6	37	0	43
Jan 2017	14	49	0	63
Feb 2017	11	34	0	45
Mar 2017	19	46	0	65
Apr 2017	20	44	0	64
May 2017	30	58	0	88
Jun 2017	22	51	0	73
Jul 2017	20	39	0	59
Aug 2017	14	50	1	65
Sep 2017	24	63	0	87
Oct 2017	10	81	0	91
Nov 2017	18	63	0	81
Dec 2017	15	42	2	59
Jan 2018	14	40	2	56
Feb 2018	21	45	0	66
Mar 2018	18	61	1	80
Apr 2018	16	54	0	70
May 2018	21	44	3	68
Jun 2018	12	52	3	67
Jul 2018	20	67	1	88
Aug 2018	23	56	0	79
Sep 2018	26	47	2	75
Oct 2018	27	58	2	87
Nov 2018	27	64	0	91
Dec 2018	16	36	0	52
Jan 2019	13	42	1	56
Feb 2019	12	31	1	44
Mar 2019	18	39	2	59
Apr 2019	16	24	1	41
May 2019	13	32	0	45
Jun 2019	19	50	1	70
Jul 2019	22	60	0	82
Aug 2019	9	49	0	58
Sep 2019	12	41	1	54
Oct 2019	13	51	1	65
Nov 2019	20	33	0	53
Dec 2019	20	37	0	57
Jan 2020	20	32	2	54
Feb 2020	8	50	1	59
Mar 2020	8	24	1	33
Apr 2020	14	28	0	42
May 2020	21	39	2	62
Jun 2020	33	33	1	67
Jul 2020	39	45	18	102
Aug 2020	13	38	10	61
Sep 2020	27	36	0	63
Oct 2020	16	27	0	43
Nov 2020	30	33	3	66
Dec 2020	20	41	1	62
Jan 2021	32	45	1	78
Feb 2021	24	43	0	67
Mar 2021	23	34	0	57
Apr 2021	28	42	0	70
May 2021	21	61	0	82
Jun 2021	36	40	0	76
Jul 2021	48	37	1	86
Aug 2021	14	35	0	49
Sep 2021	27	21	1	49
Oct 2021	58	83	0	141
Nov 2021	32	49	0	81
Dec 2021	30	33	1	64
Jan 2022	39	57	0	96
Feb 2022	28	23	2	53
Mar 2022	29	37	1	67
Apr 2022	33	34	3	70
May 2022	29	26	1	56
Jun 2022	27	28	2	57
Jul 2022	14	18	1	33
Aug 2022	33	51	0	84
Sep 2022	31	29	0	60
Oct 2022	70	53	0	123
Nov 2022	54	25	0	79
Dec 2022	35	20	4	59
Jan 2023	46	52	2	100
Feb 2023	45	29	2	76
Mar 2023	65	62	3	130
Apr 2023	31	47	1	79
May 2023	40	31	3	74
Jun 2023	29	30	2	61
Jul 2023	47	24	0	71
Aug 2023	55	15	3	73
Sep 2023	69	26	0	95
Oct 2023	145	60	1	206
Nov 2023	140	22	1	163
Dec 2023	36	47	3	86
Jan 2024	39	34	1	74
Feb 2024	25	55	2	82
Mar 2024	48	38	2	88
Apr 2024	64	33	1	98
May 2024	47	34	2	83
Jun 2024	74	41	3	118
Jul 2024	31	29	4	64
Aug 2024	45	35	3	83
Sep 2024	48	39	5	92
Oct 2024	91	38	1	130
Nov 2024	58	39	0	97
Dec 2024	48	42	1	91
Jan 2025	48	40	1	89
Feb 2025	65	21	2	88
Mar 2025	52	38	0	90
Apr 2025	65	34	0	99
May 2025	72	40	0	112
Jun 2025	89	50	4	143
Jul 2025	80	36	6	122
Aug 2025	86	47	2	135
Sep 2025	63	39	1	103
Oct 2025	88	46	2	136
Nov 2025	72	47	1	120
Dec 2025	28	7	1	36

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 05 May 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2014	157	101	4	262
Jun 2014	47	69	0	116
Jul 2014	130	83	2	215
Aug 2014	260	73	1	334
Sep 2014	101	43	1	145
Oct 2014	39	46	1	86
Nov 2014	52	35	1	88
Dec 2014	74	34	2	110
Jan 2015	44	57	2	103
Feb 2015	21	46	0	67
Mar 2015	15	32	1	48
Apr 2015	72	99	7	178
May 2015	60	90	10	160
Jun 2015	55	103	2	160
Jul 2015	66	70	3	139
Aug 2015	33	50	3	86
Sep 2015	19	35	1	55
Oct 2015	34	35	3	72
Nov 2015	51	53	2	106
Dec 2015	27	61	5	93
Jan 2016	52	62	2	116
Feb 2016	27	74	1	102
Mar 2016	23	58	2	83
Apr 2016	18	49	1	68
May 2016	10	50	1	61
Jun 2016	14	21	1	36
Jul 2016	9	18	1	28
Aug 2016	8	16	0	24
Sep 2016	12	24	0	36
Oct 2016	12	39	0	51
Nov 2016	18	41	1	60
Dec 2016	6	37	0	43
Jan 2017	14	49	0	63
Feb 2017	11	34	0	45
Mar 2017	19	46	0	65
Apr 2017	20	44	0	64
May 2017	30	58	0	88
Jun 2017	22	51	0	73
Jul 2017	20	39	0	59
Aug 2017	14	50	1	65
Sep 2017	24	63	0	87
Oct 2017	10	81	0	91
Nov 2017	18	63	0	81
Dec 2017	15	42	2	59
Jan 2018	14	40	2	56
Feb 2018	21	45	0	66
Mar 2018	18	61	1	80
Apr 2018	16	54	0	70
May 2018	21	44	3	68
Jun 2018	12	52	3	67
Jul 2018	20	67	1	88
Aug 2018	23	56	0	79
Sep 2018	26	47	2	75
Oct 2018	27	58	2	87
Nov 2018	27	64	0	91
Dec 2018	16	36	0	52
Jan 2019	13	42	1	56
Feb 2019	12	31	1	44
Mar 2019	18	39	2	59
Apr 2019	16	24	1	41
May 2019	13	32	0	45
Jun 2019	19	50	1	70
Jul 2019	22	60	0	82
Aug 2019	9	49	0	58
Sep 2019	12	41	1	54
Oct 2019	13	51	1	65
Nov 2019	20	33	0	53
Dec 2019	20	37	0	57
Jan 2020	20	32	2	54
Feb 2020	8	50	1	59
Mar 2020	8	24	1	33
Apr 2020	14	28	0	42
May 2020	21	39	2	62
Jun 2020	33	33	1	67
Jul 2020	39	45	18	102
Aug 2020	13	38	10	61
Sep 2020	27	36	0	63
Oct 2020	16	27	0	43
Nov 2020	30	33	3	66
Dec 2020	20	41	1	62
Jan 2021	32	45	1	78
Feb 2021	24	43	0	67
Mar 2021	23	34	0	57
Apr 2021	28	42	0	70
May 2021	21	61	0	82
Jun 2021	36	40	0	76
Jul 2021	48	37	1	86
Aug 2021	14	35	0	49
Sep 2021	27	21	1	49
Oct 2021	58	83	0	141
Nov 2021	32	49	0	81
Dec 2021	30	33	1	64
Jan 2022	39	57	0	96
Feb 2022	28	23	2	53
Mar 2022	29	37	1	67
Apr 2022	33	34	3	70
May 2022	29	26	1	56
Jun 2022	27	28	2	57
Jul 2022	14	18	1	33
Aug 2022	33	51	0	84
Sep 2022	31	29	0	60
Oct 2022	70	53	0	123
Nov 2022	54	25	0	79
Dec 2022	35	20	4	59
Jan 2023	46	52	2	100
Feb 2023	45	29	2	76
Mar 2023	65	62	3	130
Apr 2023	31	47	1	79
May 2023	40	31	3	74
Jun 2023	29	30	2	61
Jul 2023	47	24	0	71
Aug 2023	55	15	3	73
Sep 2023	69	26	0	95
Oct 2023	145	60	1	206
Nov 2023	140	22	1	163
Dec 2023	36	47	3	86
Jan 2024	39	34	1	74
Feb 2024	25	55	2	82
Mar 2024	48	38	2	88
Apr 2024	64	33	1	98
May 2024	47	34	2	83
Jun 2024	74	41	3	118
Jul 2024	31	29	4	64
Aug 2024	45	35	3	83
Sep 2024	48	39	5	92
Oct 2024	91	38	1	130
Nov 2024	58	39	0	97
Dec 2024	48	42	1	91
Jan 2025	48	40	1	89
Feb 2025	65	21	2	88
Mar 2025	52	38	0	90
Apr 2025	65	34	0	99
May 2025	72	40	0	112
Jun 2025	89	50	4	143
Jul 2025	80	36	6	122
Aug 2025	86	47	2	135
Sep 2025	63	39	1	103
Oct 2025	88	46	2	136
Nov 2025	72	47	1	120
Dec 2025	28	7	1	36

Latest update: 06 Dec 2025

Short summary

How can we use weather or climate forecasts to avoid disasters? This article offers a framework for determining when it is "worth" taking action to try to avoid a potential disaster. Considering forecast probabilities, actions, and funding constraints, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system that would automatically trigger action based on forecasts of increased risks.