Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts
E. Coughlan de Perez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964-1000, USA
B. van den Hurk
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
M. K. van Aalst
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964-1000, USA
B. Jongman
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
T. Klose
German Red Cross, Berlin, Germany
P. Suarez
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
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Cited
121 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating South African Weather Service information on Idai tropical cyclone and KwaZulu-Natal flood events (with corrigendum) M. Bopape et al.
- Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction D. Wagenaar et al.
- INSPIRE game: integration of vulnerability into impact-based forecasting of urban floods A. Singhal et al.
- Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Seasonal predictability of onset and cessation of the east African rains D. MacLeod
- Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña G. Guimarães Nobre et al.
- Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya A. Barrett et al.
- Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards A. AghaKouchak et al.
- Effects of anticipatory humanitarian cash assistance to households forecasted to experience extreme flooding: evidence from Bangladesh C. Gros et al.
- Normalized Difference Flood Index for rapid flood mapping: Taking advantage of EO big data F. Cian et al.
- The utility of impact data in flood forecast verification for anticipatory actions: Case studies from Uganda and Kenya F. Mitheu et al.
- Madden-Julian Oscillation impacts on tropical African precipitation B. Zaitchik
- CMIP6 models simulate heavier future rainfall over the Highlands than across other agricultural areas of Yemen H. Gadain & B. Libanda
- Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response R. Emerton et al.
- Roadmap Toward Responsible AI in Crisis Resilience and Management C. Lee et al.
- Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action P. Kam et al.
- Spring snowmelt flood disasters in Altay, Northwest China: Spatio-temporal distribution and mechanisms D. Tuoliewubieke et al.
- Communicating Uncertainty in Climate Information for China: Recommendations and Lessons Learned for Climate Services A. Taylor et al.
- Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future J. Chaves-Gonzalez et al.
- Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage M. Scown et al.
- A multi-system comparison of forecast flooding extent using a scale-selective approach H. Hooker et al.
- Assessing ENSO as a Driver of Climate Variability in Cameroon from 1981 To 2023: A Zonal Disaggregation and Composite Based Analysis across Agroecological Zones B. Benoir et al.
- ECOMSNet – An edge computing-based sensory network for real-time water level prediction and correction T. Yang et al.
- The use of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts: a literature review Q. Yan
- Perceptions of heat-health impacts and the effects of knowledge and preventive actions by outdoor workers in Hanoi, Vietnam S. Lohrey et al.
- Precipitation responses to ENSO and IOD in the Maldives: Implications of large-scale modes of climate variability in weather-related preparedness A. Foley & I. Kelman
- Off the grid: utilizing OpenStreetMap for early warning and early action in conflict settings in Sudan C. Scholz et al.
- Anticipatory Cash Transfers in the Context of Weather Disasters L. Mogge et al.
- Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction J. Hansen et al.
- Assimilation of Satellite Flood Likelihood Data Improves Inundation Mapping From a Simulation Library System H. Hooker et al.
- Sensitivity analysis of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model output variables to the thunderstorm lifecycle and its application H. Huang et al.
- The depoliticization of climate disasters: Unpacking the entanglement of satellites with parametric climate risk insurance R. Bergsvik & S. Kloppenburg
- The role of anticipatory humanitarian action to reduce disaster displacement L. Thalheimer et al.
- Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience H. Steptoe et al.
- Climate-sensitive disease outbreaks in the aftermath of extreme climatic events: A scoping review T. Alcayna et al.
- Institutionalisation of anticipatory action within government disaster risk management structures: experiences from Zimbabwe P. Bongo et al.
- Systèmes d’alerte précoce pour les aléas naturels et environnementaux : virage ou mirage technologique ? D. Didier et al.
- A research agenda for improving flood resilience in Australia F. Johnson & S. Hettiarachchi
- Towards an evidence base for groundwater data investments W. Veness & W. Buytaert
- When does forecast-based insurance benefit? An economic analysis of drought risk anticipatory insurance V. Anand et al.
- Precipitation and floodiness E. Stephens et al.
- Disentangling Complexity and Performance: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning and Random Forest Models for Cropland Vulnerability Assessment in Bangladesh A. Bormudoi & M. Nagai
- Uneven hydroclimatic risk and land access constraints challenge refugee agricultural self-reliance in Uganda E. Negash et al.
- Global predictability of temperature extremes E. de Perez et al.
- Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts T. Yang et al.
- Using numerical weather model outputs to forecast wind gusts during typhoons T. Yang & C. Tsai
- The influence of aggregation and statistical post‐processing on the subseasonal predictability of European temperatures C. van Straaten et al.
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al.
- Novel evaluation of sub‐seasonal precipitation ensemble forecasts for identifying high‐impact weather events associated with the Indian monsoon S. Kolusu et al.
- Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: A review J. Towner et al.
- Bridging forecast verification and humanitarian decisions: A valuation approach for setting up action-oriented early warnings A. Lopez et al.
- Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Changes in Magnitude and Shifts in Timing of Australian Flood Peaks M. Bari et al.
- Forecasting for social good B. Rostami-Tabar et al.
- The Legitimacy, Accountability, and Ownership of an Impact-Based Forecasting Model in Disaster Governance S. Bierens et al.
- A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale M. Charpentier-Noyer et al.
- A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan E. Black et al.
- Early Flood Detection for Rapid Humanitarian Response: Harnessing Near Real-Time Satellite and Twitter Signals B. Jongman et al.
- Risk Management and Adaptation for Extremes and Abrupt Changes in Climate and Oceans: Current Knowledge Gaps L. Bouwer et al.
- Recommendations to improve the interpretation of global flood forecasts to support international humanitarian operations for tropical cyclones L. Speight et al.
- Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh D. Lee et al.
- Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts T. Busker et al.
- The effectiveness of forecast‐based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia C. Gros et al.
- Rethinking Engagement: Innovations in How Humanitarians Explore Geoinformation P. Suarez
- A framework for comparing permanent and forecast-based flood risk-reduction strategies K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action E. Coughlan de Perez et al.
- Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability J. Frischen et al.
- Attribution of Large‐Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak‐Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally D. Lee et al.
- Evaluation of the predictive skill for warm spells in Germany at seasonal scale F. Castino et al.
- Integrating forecast-based action and government-led social protection programs for flood response R. Mahmud et al.
- The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Climate change adaptation narratives: Linking climate knowledge and future thinking L. Coulter et al.
- Lessons from flood early warning systems J. Cools et al.
- New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties H. Kreibich et al.
- Improving drought resilience in Northern Murray-Darling Basin farming communities: Is forecast-based financing suitable? A. Asghari et al.
- Decisions with weather warnings when waiting is an option D. Mu et al.
- On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions B. Revilla-Romero et al.
- Designing technology for smart and sustainable cities of tomorrow – What can we learn from IPCC’s sixth assessment report? T. Vainio
- Compound and cascading effects of climatic extremes on dengue outbreak risk in the Caribbean: an impact-based modelling framework with long-lag and short-lag interactions C. Fletcher et al.
- Forecast‐based action for conservation V. Boult
- The Long Road to Acting Ahead: Lessons from the Evolution of Early Warning Systems and Anticipatory Action C. Jaime et al.
- Characteristics, drivers, and predictability of flood events in the Tana River Basin, Kenya A. Kiptum et al.
- Forecast-based Financing for Risk Mitigation V. Anand
- Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers: Towards developing a Forecast-based Financing system for droughts in Mozambique G. Guimarães Nobre et al.
- Development and evaluation of flood forecasting models for forecast-based financing using a novel model suitability matrix J. Hagen et al.
- A Framework for Mechanistic Flood Inundation Forecasting at the Metropolitan Scale J. Schubert et al.
- Evaluating prospects for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast-based anticipatory action from a global perspective J. Lala et al.
- Fostering anticipatory humanitarian actions for heatwaves in Hanoi through forecast-based financing S. Dinnissen et al.
- Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale T. Veldkamp et al.
- Accelerating Climate Service Development for Renewable Energy, Finance and Cities K. Halsnæs et al.
- Developing a Digital Disaster Documents System for essential documents: Perspectives of decision-makers in disaster and emergency management in Canada M. Choudhury et al.
- Situating El Niño: Toward a Critical (Physical) Geography of ENSO Research Practice G. Adamson
- Agentic AI can help hospitals prepare for unprecedented weather M. Gish & C. Rapaport
- Prevention of gender-based violence in climate crises: entrenching feminist finance V. Bhardwaj
- Characteristics of Transformational Adaptation in Climate-Land-Society Interactions K. Warner et al.
- Mapping war trauma: A machine learning approach to predict mental health impacts in Ukraine S. Tayebi et al.
- Skill and lead time of vegetation drought impact forecasts based on soil moisture observations Y. Li et al.
- Integrating anticipatory action in disease outbreak preparedness and response in the humanitarian sector T. Alcayna et al.
- Enhancing systemic risk management to strengthen community resilience: Key recommendations from state-of-the-art practices of past complex incidents M. Senevirathne et al.
- Ensemble hydrological predictions at an intraseasonal scale through a statistical–dynamical downscaling approach over southwestern Amazonia W. Gomes et al.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al.
- Advancing Human Displacement Modeling: A Case Study of the 2022 Summer Floods in Pakistan P. Kam et al.
- A dynamic hierarchical Bayesian approach for forecasting vegetation condition E. Salakpi et al.
- Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities J. Bhardwaj et al.
- Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Education Outcomes: A Review of Evidence S. Venegas Marin et al.
- Global hydrological reanalyses: The value of river discharge information for world‐wide downstream applications – The example of the Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS C. Prudhomme et al.
- What Will the Weather Do? Forecasting Flood Losses Based on Oscillation Indices G. Guimarães Nobre et al.
- An Information-Theoretic Approach to Reconciling Historical Climate Observations and Impacts on Agriculture M. Mauerman et al.
- El Niño without ‘El Niño’? Path dependency and the definition problem in El Niño Southern Oscillation research G. Adamson
- A global database of historic and real-time flood events based on social media J. de Bruijn et al.
- Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño J. Aguirre et al.
- Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability K. Guigma et al.
- Incorporating indigenous knowledge systems-based climate services in anticipatory action in Zimbabwe: an ex-ante assessment T. Dube et al.
- Forecasting vegetation condition with a Bayesian auto-regressive distributed lags (BARDL) model E. Salakpi et al.
- Beyond El Niño: Unsung climate modes drive African floods A. Ficchì et al.
- Anticipation Mechanism for Cold Wave: Forecast Based Financing a Case Study in the Peruvian Andes J. Bazo et al.
- Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs N. Altay & A. Narayanan
- Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT‐ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action V. Boult et al.
- Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather to Climate with Application to Tropical Cyclones A. Robertson et al.
- Household-level effects of providing forecast-based cash in anticipation of extreme weather events: Quasi-experimental evidence from humanitarian interventions in the 2017 floods in Bangladesh C. Gros et al.
- Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States S. Ye et al.
121 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating South African Weather Service information on Idai tropical cyclone and KwaZulu-Natal flood events (with corrigendum) M. Bopape et al.
- Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction D. Wagenaar et al.
- INSPIRE game: integration of vulnerability into impact-based forecasting of urban floods A. Singhal et al.
- Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Seasonal predictability of onset and cessation of the east African rains D. MacLeod
- Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña G. Guimarães Nobre et al.
- Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya A. Barrett et al.
- Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards A. AghaKouchak et al.
- Effects of anticipatory humanitarian cash assistance to households forecasted to experience extreme flooding: evidence from Bangladesh C. Gros et al.
- Normalized Difference Flood Index for rapid flood mapping: Taking advantage of EO big data F. Cian et al.
- The utility of impact data in flood forecast verification for anticipatory actions: Case studies from Uganda and Kenya F. Mitheu et al.
- Madden-Julian Oscillation impacts on tropical African precipitation B. Zaitchik
- CMIP6 models simulate heavier future rainfall over the Highlands than across other agricultural areas of Yemen H. Gadain & B. Libanda
- Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response R. Emerton et al.
- Roadmap Toward Responsible AI in Crisis Resilience and Management C. Lee et al.
- Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action P. Kam et al.
- Spring snowmelt flood disasters in Altay, Northwest China: Spatio-temporal distribution and mechanisms D. Tuoliewubieke et al.
- Communicating Uncertainty in Climate Information for China: Recommendations and Lessons Learned for Climate Services A. Taylor et al.
- Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future J. Chaves-Gonzalez et al.
- Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage M. Scown et al.
- A multi-system comparison of forecast flooding extent using a scale-selective approach H. Hooker et al.
- Assessing ENSO as a Driver of Climate Variability in Cameroon from 1981 To 2023: A Zonal Disaggregation and Composite Based Analysis across Agroecological Zones B. Benoir et al.
- ECOMSNet – An edge computing-based sensory network for real-time water level prediction and correction T. Yang et al.
- The use of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts: a literature review Q. Yan
- Perceptions of heat-health impacts and the effects of knowledge and preventive actions by outdoor workers in Hanoi, Vietnam S. Lohrey et al.
- Precipitation responses to ENSO and IOD in the Maldives: Implications of large-scale modes of climate variability in weather-related preparedness A. Foley & I. Kelman
- Off the grid: utilizing OpenStreetMap for early warning and early action in conflict settings in Sudan C. Scholz et al.
- Anticipatory Cash Transfers in the Context of Weather Disasters L. Mogge et al.
- Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction J. Hansen et al.
- Assimilation of Satellite Flood Likelihood Data Improves Inundation Mapping From a Simulation Library System H. Hooker et al.
- Sensitivity analysis of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model output variables to the thunderstorm lifecycle and its application H. Huang et al.
- The depoliticization of climate disasters: Unpacking the entanglement of satellites with parametric climate risk insurance R. Bergsvik & S. Kloppenburg
- The role of anticipatory humanitarian action to reduce disaster displacement L. Thalheimer et al.
- Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience H. Steptoe et al.
- Climate-sensitive disease outbreaks in the aftermath of extreme climatic events: A scoping review T. Alcayna et al.
- Institutionalisation of anticipatory action within government disaster risk management structures: experiences from Zimbabwe P. Bongo et al.
- Systèmes d’alerte précoce pour les aléas naturels et environnementaux : virage ou mirage technologique ? D. Didier et al.
- A research agenda for improving flood resilience in Australia F. Johnson & S. Hettiarachchi
- Towards an evidence base for groundwater data investments W. Veness & W. Buytaert
- When does forecast-based insurance benefit? An economic analysis of drought risk anticipatory insurance V. Anand et al.
- Precipitation and floodiness E. Stephens et al.
- Disentangling Complexity and Performance: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning and Random Forest Models for Cropland Vulnerability Assessment in Bangladesh A. Bormudoi & M. Nagai
- Uneven hydroclimatic risk and land access constraints challenge refugee agricultural self-reliance in Uganda E. Negash et al.
- Global predictability of temperature extremes E. de Perez et al.
- Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts T. Yang et al.
- Using numerical weather model outputs to forecast wind gusts during typhoons T. Yang & C. Tsai
- The influence of aggregation and statistical post‐processing on the subseasonal predictability of European temperatures C. van Straaten et al.
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al.
- Novel evaluation of sub‐seasonal precipitation ensemble forecasts for identifying high‐impact weather events associated with the Indian monsoon S. Kolusu et al.
- Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: A review J. Towner et al.
- Bridging forecast verification and humanitarian decisions: A valuation approach for setting up action-oriented early warnings A. Lopez et al.
- Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Changes in Magnitude and Shifts in Timing of Australian Flood Peaks M. Bari et al.
- Forecasting for social good B. Rostami-Tabar et al.
- The Legitimacy, Accountability, and Ownership of an Impact-Based Forecasting Model in Disaster Governance S. Bierens et al.
- A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale M. Charpentier-Noyer et al.
- A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan E. Black et al.
- Early Flood Detection for Rapid Humanitarian Response: Harnessing Near Real-Time Satellite and Twitter Signals B. Jongman et al.
- Risk Management and Adaptation for Extremes and Abrupt Changes in Climate and Oceans: Current Knowledge Gaps L. Bouwer et al.
- Recommendations to improve the interpretation of global flood forecasts to support international humanitarian operations for tropical cyclones L. Speight et al.
- Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh D. Lee et al.
- Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts T. Busker et al.
- The effectiveness of forecast‐based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia C. Gros et al.
- Rethinking Engagement: Innovations in How Humanitarians Explore Geoinformation P. Suarez
- A framework for comparing permanent and forecast-based flood risk-reduction strategies K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action E. Coughlan de Perez et al.
- Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability J. Frischen et al.
- Attribution of Large‐Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak‐Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally D. Lee et al.
- Evaluation of the predictive skill for warm spells in Germany at seasonal scale F. Castino et al.
- Integrating forecast-based action and government-led social protection programs for flood response R. Mahmud et al.
- The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa K. Bischiniotis et al.
- Climate change adaptation narratives: Linking climate knowledge and future thinking L. Coulter et al.
- Lessons from flood early warning systems J. Cools et al.
- New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties H. Kreibich et al.
- Improving drought resilience in Northern Murray-Darling Basin farming communities: Is forecast-based financing suitable? A. Asghari et al.
- Decisions with weather warnings when waiting is an option D. Mu et al.
- On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions B. Revilla-Romero et al.
- Designing technology for smart and sustainable cities of tomorrow – What can we learn from IPCC’s sixth assessment report? T. Vainio
- Compound and cascading effects of climatic extremes on dengue outbreak risk in the Caribbean: an impact-based modelling framework with long-lag and short-lag interactions C. Fletcher et al.
- Forecast‐based action for conservation V. Boult
- The Long Road to Acting Ahead: Lessons from the Evolution of Early Warning Systems and Anticipatory Action C. Jaime et al.
- Characteristics, drivers, and predictability of flood events in the Tana River Basin, Kenya A. Kiptum et al.
- Forecast-based Financing for Risk Mitigation V. Anand
- Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers: Towards developing a Forecast-based Financing system for droughts in Mozambique G. Guimarães Nobre et al.
- Development and evaluation of flood forecasting models for forecast-based financing using a novel model suitability matrix J. Hagen et al.
- A Framework for Mechanistic Flood Inundation Forecasting at the Metropolitan Scale J. Schubert et al.
- Evaluating prospects for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast-based anticipatory action from a global perspective J. Lala et al.
- Fostering anticipatory humanitarian actions for heatwaves in Hanoi through forecast-based financing S. Dinnissen et al.
- Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale T. Veldkamp et al.
- Accelerating Climate Service Development for Renewable Energy, Finance and Cities K. Halsnæs et al.
- Developing a Digital Disaster Documents System for essential documents: Perspectives of decision-makers in disaster and emergency management in Canada M. Choudhury et al.
- Situating El Niño: Toward a Critical (Physical) Geography of ENSO Research Practice G. Adamson
- Agentic AI can help hospitals prepare for unprecedented weather M. Gish & C. Rapaport
- Prevention of gender-based violence in climate crises: entrenching feminist finance V. Bhardwaj
- Characteristics of Transformational Adaptation in Climate-Land-Society Interactions K. Warner et al.
- Mapping war trauma: A machine learning approach to predict mental health impacts in Ukraine S. Tayebi et al.
- Skill and lead time of vegetation drought impact forecasts based on soil moisture observations Y. Li et al.
- Integrating anticipatory action in disease outbreak preparedness and response in the humanitarian sector T. Alcayna et al.
- Enhancing systemic risk management to strengthen community resilience: Key recommendations from state-of-the-art practices of past complex incidents M. Senevirathne et al.
- Ensemble hydrological predictions at an intraseasonal scale through a statistical–dynamical downscaling approach over southwestern Amazonia W. Gomes et al.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al.
- Advancing Human Displacement Modeling: A Case Study of the 2022 Summer Floods in Pakistan P. Kam et al.
- A dynamic hierarchical Bayesian approach for forecasting vegetation condition E. Salakpi et al.
- Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities J. Bhardwaj et al.
- Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Education Outcomes: A Review of Evidence S. Venegas Marin et al.
- Global hydrological reanalyses: The value of river discharge information for world‐wide downstream applications – The example of the Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS C. Prudhomme et al.
- What Will the Weather Do? Forecasting Flood Losses Based on Oscillation Indices G. Guimarães Nobre et al.
- An Information-Theoretic Approach to Reconciling Historical Climate Observations and Impacts on Agriculture M. Mauerman et al.
- El Niño without ‘El Niño’? Path dependency and the definition problem in El Niño Southern Oscillation research G. Adamson
- A global database of historic and real-time flood events based on social media J. de Bruijn et al.
- Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño J. Aguirre et al.
- Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability K. Guigma et al.
- Incorporating indigenous knowledge systems-based climate services in anticipatory action in Zimbabwe: an ex-ante assessment T. Dube et al.
- Forecasting vegetation condition with a Bayesian auto-regressive distributed lags (BARDL) model E. Salakpi et al.
- Beyond El Niño: Unsung climate modes drive African floods A. Ficchì et al.
- Anticipation Mechanism for Cold Wave: Forecast Based Financing a Case Study in the Peruvian Andes J. Bazo et al.
- Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs N. Altay & A. Narayanan
- Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT‐ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action V. Boult et al.
- Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather to Climate with Application to Tropical Cyclones A. Robertson et al.
- Household-level effects of providing forecast-based cash in anticipation of extreme weather events: Quasi-experimental evidence from humanitarian interventions in the 2017 floods in Bangladesh C. Gros et al.
- Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States S. Ye et al.
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Latest update: 26 Apr 2026
Short summary
How can we use weather or climate forecasts to avoid disasters? This article offers a framework for determining when it is "worth" taking action to try to avoid a potential disaster. Considering forecast probabilities, actions, and funding constraints, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system that would automatically trigger action based on forecasts of increased risks.
How can we use weather or climate forecasts to avoid disasters? This article offers a framework...
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