Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1477-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1477-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jun 2014
Research article |
| 11 Jun 2014
Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012
A. Venäläinen
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Change Research Unit, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
N. Korhonen
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Change Research Unit, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
O. Hyvärinen
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Change Research Unit, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
N. Koutsias
Department of Environmental and Natural Resources Management, University of Ioannina, G. Seferi 2, 30100 Agrinio, Greece
F. Xystrakis
Department of Environmental and Natural Resources Management, University of Ioannina, G. Seferi 2, 30100 Agrinio, Greece
I. R. Urbieta
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 45071 Toledo, Spain
J. M. Moreno
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 45071 Toledo, Spain
Related authors
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Otto Hyvärinen, Ari Venäläinen, and Andrea Vajda
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 23–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The monthly mean soil moisture forecasts for forestry are been developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute in cooperation with Finnish end-users. Such forecasts help in timber harvesting planning, and forecasts could large economic value. Therefore the skillfulness of forecasts was measured. Throughout the year the first month was skillful, and after that it can be hard to say if the forecasts are better than the normal conditions. Winter forecasts are a bit better than summer forecasts.
Hannu Valta, Ilari Lehtonen, Terhi K. Laurila, Ari Venäläinen, Mikko Laapas, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 31–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-31-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A comparison of forest damage with windstorm intensity in Finland suggests that the volume of forest damage follows approximately a power relation as a function of wind gust speed with a power of ~10. This tentative estimate holds for typical windstorms having mainly westerly winds and affecting large areas in southern and central parts of Finland. The estimate can be utilized when preparing impact-based predictions of windstorms.
Ilari Lehtonen, Ari Venäläinen, Matti Kämäräinen, Antti Asikainen, Juha Laitila, Perttu Anttila, and Heli Peltola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1611–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Wintertime bearing capacity on different forest soils with respect to timber harvesting in the projected future climate of Finland was estimated by using a soil temperature model and a wide set of downscaled climate model simulations. The results indicate that, particularly, drained peatlands may virtually lack soil frost over large areas in most of winters during the late 21st century. There is thus a clear need to develop new sustainable and efficient logging practices for peatland forests.
Ari Venäläinen, Mikko Laapas, Pentti Pirinen, Matti Horttanainen, Reijo Hyvönen, Ilari Lehtonen, Päivi Junila, Meiting Hou, and Heli M. Peltola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 529–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-529-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-529-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The rapidly growing forest-based bioeconomy calls for increasing wood harvesting intensity, and an increase in thinning and a final felling area. This may increase wind damage risks at the upwind edges of new cleared felling areas and thinned stands. Efficient wind risk assessment is needed. We demonstrate a pragmatic and computationally feasible method for identifying at a high spatial resolution those locations having the highest forest wind damage risks.
Ilari Lehtonen, Matti Kämäräinen, Hilppa Gregow, Ari Venäläinen, and Heli Peltola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2259–2271, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2259-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the impact of projected climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Although winters are projected to become milder over the whole of Finland, our results suggest than in eastern and northern Finland the risk may increase while in southern and western parts of the country it is projected to decrease. This indicates that there is increasing need to consider the potential of snow damage in forest management in eastern and northern Finland.
I. Lehtonen, A. Venäläinen, M. Kämäräinen, H. Peltola, and H. Gregow
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 239–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The number of large forest fires in Finland will most likely increase during the twenty-first century in response to projected climate change. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to effective fire suppression. However, our results show considerable inter-model variability, demonstrating the large uncertainty related to the rate of the projected change in forest-fire danger.
O. Hyvärinen, L. Mtilatila, K. Pilli-Sihvola, A. Venäläinen, and H. Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 31–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the quality of the seasonal precipitation forecasts issued by Regional Climate Outlook Forum for Malawi and Zambia. The forecasts, issued in August, are of rainy season rainfall accumulations for early and late season. The forecasts are rather well-calibrated, but cannot discriminate between different events. But these results can be too pessimistic, because forecasts have gone through much development lately, and forecasts using current methodology might have performed better.
N. Korhonen, A. Venäläinen, H. Seppä, and H. Järvinen
Clim. Past, 10, 1489–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, 2014
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Otto Hyvärinen, Terhi K. Laurila, Olle Räty, Natalia Korhonen, Andrea Vajda, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 127–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wind speed forecasts have many potential users that could benefit from skilful forecasts. We validated weekly mean speed forecasts for Finland using
forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We concentrate on winter (November, December and January) forecasts.
The forecasts proved to be skilful until the third week, but the longest skilful lead time depends on how the skill is calculated and what is used as the reference.
Andrea Vajda and Otto Hyvärinen
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 269–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the applicability of seasonal forecast outputs in agriculture in Finland. The quality of seasonal forecasts output was assessed, and six tailored seasonal forecast indices were co-designed, developed in close collaboration with the Central Union of Agricultural Producers and Forest Owners and piloted with over 200 farmers. Although the tested seasonal forecast indices had a limited skill and need further improvements, the farmers found the climate outlooks useful.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
Otto Hyvärinen, Ari Venäläinen, and Andrea Vajda
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 23–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The monthly mean soil moisture forecasts for forestry are been developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute in cooperation with Finnish end-users. Such forecasts help in timber harvesting planning, and forecasts could large economic value. Therefore the skillfulness of forecasts was measured. Throughout the year the first month was skillful, and after that it can be hard to say if the forecasts are better than the normal conditions. Winter forecasts are a bit better than summer forecasts.
Hannu Valta, Ilari Lehtonen, Terhi K. Laurila, Ari Venäläinen, Mikko Laapas, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 31–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-31-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A comparison of forest damage with windstorm intensity in Finland suggests that the volume of forest damage follows approximately a power relation as a function of wind gust speed with a power of ~10. This tentative estimate holds for typical windstorms having mainly westerly winds and affecting large areas in southern and central parts of Finland. The estimate can be utilized when preparing impact-based predictions of windstorms.
Ilari Lehtonen, Ari Venäläinen, Matti Kämäräinen, Antti Asikainen, Juha Laitila, Perttu Anttila, and Heli Peltola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1611–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Wintertime bearing capacity on different forest soils with respect to timber harvesting in the projected future climate of Finland was estimated by using a soil temperature model and a wide set of downscaled climate model simulations. The results indicate that, particularly, drained peatlands may virtually lack soil frost over large areas in most of winters during the late 21st century. There is thus a clear need to develop new sustainable and efficient logging practices for peatland forests.
Ari Venäläinen, Mikko Laapas, Pentti Pirinen, Matti Horttanainen, Reijo Hyvönen, Ilari Lehtonen, Päivi Junila, Meiting Hou, and Heli M. Peltola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 529–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-529-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-529-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The rapidly growing forest-based bioeconomy calls for increasing wood harvesting intensity, and an increase in thinning and a final felling area. This may increase wind damage risks at the upwind edges of new cleared felling areas and thinned stands. Efficient wind risk assessment is needed. We demonstrate a pragmatic and computationally feasible method for identifying at a high spatial resolution those locations having the highest forest wind damage risks.
Otto Hyvärinen, Antti Mäkelä, Matti Kämäräinen, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 89–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helen Ltd examined the feasibility of long-range forecasts (longer than two weeks) of temperature for needs of the energy sector in Helsinki, Finland. In this study, we examined the quality of Heating degree day (HDD) forecasts. As the forecasts we used UK Met Office seasonal forecasts. The long-range forecasts of monthly HDD showed some skill in Helsinki in winter 2015–2016, up to two months, especially if the very cold January is excluded.
Matti Kämäräinen, Otto Hyvärinen, Kirsti Jylhä, Andrea Vajda, Simo Neiglick, Jaakko Nuottokari, and Hilppa Gregow
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 243–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-243-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Freezing rain is a high-impact wintertime weather phenomenon. The direct damage it causes to critical infrastructure (transportation, communication and energy) and forestry can be substantial. In this work a method for estimating the occurrence of freezing rain was evaluated and used to derive the climatology. The method was able to accurately reproduce the observed, spatially aggregated annual variability. The highest frequencies of freezing rain were found in eastern and central Europe.
Ilari Lehtonen, Matti Kämäräinen, Hilppa Gregow, Ari Venäläinen, and Heli Peltola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2259–2271, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2259-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the impact of projected climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Although winters are projected to become milder over the whole of Finland, our results suggest than in eastern and northern Finland the risk may increase while in southern and western parts of the country it is projected to decrease. This indicates that there is increasing need to consider the potential of snow damage in forest management in eastern and northern Finland.
I. Lehtonen, A. Venäläinen, M. Kämäräinen, H. Peltola, and H. Gregow
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 239–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The number of large forest fires in Finland will most likely increase during the twenty-first century in response to projected climate change. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to effective fire suppression. However, our results show considerable inter-model variability, demonstrating the large uncertainty related to the rate of the projected change in forest-fire danger.
O. Hyvärinen, L. Mtilatila, K. Pilli-Sihvola, A. Venäläinen, and H. Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 31–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the quality of the seasonal precipitation forecasts issued by Regional Climate Outlook Forum for Malawi and Zambia. The forecasts, issued in August, are of rainy season rainfall accumulations for early and late season. The forecasts are rather well-calibrated, but cannot discriminate between different events. But these results can be too pessimistic, because forecasts have gone through much development lately, and forecasts using current methodology might have performed better.
M. B. Hinojosa, A. Parra, V. A. Laudicina, and J. M. Moreno
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-15251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-15251-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript reports the results of an experimental field study in which the joint effect of both fire and drought is tested. Drought modifies the short-term post-fire soil functionality and microbial community, in a fire-prone xeric ecosystem in which drought is projected to increase with climate change. This study allows to make a step forward on our integrated understanding of the processes underlying impacts of climate extremes in the recovery of ecosystems after fire.
N. Korhonen, A. Venäläinen, H. Seppä, and H. Järvinen
Clim. Past, 10, 1489–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, 2014
F. Xystrakis, A. S. Kallimanis, P. Dimopoulos, J. M. Halley, and N. Koutsias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 21–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-21-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-21-2014, 2014
J. Martínez-Fernández, E. Chuvieco, and N. Koutsias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 311–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-311-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-311-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
The role of citizen science to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID Lightning Location System
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Intense rains in Israel associated with the 'Train effect'
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: Climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Exploring extreme event attribution by using long-running meteorological observations
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: The roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research analyzes the meteo-hydrological features of August 27th and 28th 2023 event occurred in Genoa city. Rainfall observations were taken using either official or rain gauge networks based on citizen science. The combined analysis highlights a spatial variability of the precipitations, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of the authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over sub-hourly duration are significant.
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveils distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. Daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed that they were beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe weather forecast and warning need to advance to trigger our imagination of what might be about to happen and start preparing.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called 'ensemble prediction'. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity, space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitations.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
'Train effect' is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall, sometimes floods, and reported in N. America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains were identified by radar images, associated with Cyprus Lows, sharing the following features: Found at the cold sector south of the low center, at the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km, last 1–3 hours and yield 35 mm rainfall, up to 60 mm.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level PV anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptical analysis.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events to changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored how these relationships can be investigated using a more common method, and relying solely on long-running observational records of temperature and precipitation.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops (wheat, maize, barley, rapeseed) and grapevines after a hailstorm. Using radar, agricultural land use data, and damage reports, it finds that the model performs best in the main production areas and at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevines. It also highlights the trade-offs in selecting suitable hail size thresholds for modeling, which eventually depends on user needs and cost considerations.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2057, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by very extreme precipitation. Flood protection rely on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties of the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Cited articles
Acero, F., García, J., Gallego, M., Parey, S., and Dacunha-Castelle, D.: Trends in Summer Extreme Temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula using Non-Urban Station Data, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020590, 2014.
Andrews, P., Loftsgaarden, D., and Bradshaw, L.: Evaluation of fire danger indexes using logistic regression and percentile analysis, Int. J. Wildlad Fire, 12, 213–226, 2003.
Bajocco, S. and Ricotta, C.: Evidence of selective burning in Sardinia (Italy): which land-cover classes do wildfires prefer?, Landscape Ecol., 23, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-007-9176-5, 2008.
Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Zavala, G., Urbieta, I. R., and Moreno, J. M.: Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 699–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-699-2012, 2012.
Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Martín, D. S., Koutsias, N., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling, Climatic Change, 120, 229–247, 10.1007/s10584-013-0787-3, 2013.
Beguería, S., Angulo-Martínez, M., Vicente-Serrano, S., López-Moreno, J., and El-Kenawy, A.: Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 2102–2114, 2011.
Bessie, W. C. and Johnson, E. A.: The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in sub-Alpine forests, Ecology, 76, 747–762, https://doi.org/10.2307/1939341, 1995.
Beverly, J. L. and Martell, D. L.: Characterizing extreme fire and weather events in the Boreal Shield ecozone of Ontario, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 133, 5–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.015, 2005.
Bowman, D., Balch, K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W., Carlson, J., Cochrane, M., D'Antonio, C., DeFries, R., Doyle, J., Harrison, S., Johnston F., Keeley, J., Krawchuk, M., Kull, C., Marston, J., Moritz, M., Prentice, C., Roos, C., Scott, A., Swetnam, T., Der Werf, G., and Pyne, S.: Fire in the Earth System. Science, 324, 481–484, 2009.
Bradstock, R. A.: A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 19, 145–158, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00512.x, 2010.
Brotons, L., Aquilué, N., de Cáceres, M., Fortin, M., and Fall, A.: How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes, PLoS ONE 8, e62392, 2013.
Brunet, M., Jones, P., Sigró, J., Saladié, O., Aguilar, E., Moberg, A., Della-Marta, P., Lister, D., Walther, A., and López, D.: Temporal and spatial temperature variability and change over Spain during 1850–2005, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 112, D12117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008249, 2007.
Camia, A. and Amatulli, G.: Weather factors and fire danger in the Mediterranean, in: Earth Observation of Wildland Fires in Mediterranean Ecosystems, edited by: Chuvieco, E., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 71–82, 2009.
Camia, A., Durrant Houston, T., and San-Miguel, J.: The European Fire Database: Development, Structure and Implementation, in: Proc. VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research, edited by: Viegas, D. X., Coimbra, 2010.
Carmo, M., Moreira, F., Casimiro, P., and Vaz, P.: Land use and topography influences on wildfire occurrence in northern Portugal, Landscape Urban Plan., 100, 169–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.11.017, 2011.
Carvalho, A., Flannigan, M. D., Logan, K., Miranda, A. I., and Borrego, C.: Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17, 328–338, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf07014, 2008.
Dee, D., Uppala, S., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J., Park, B., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, 2011.
De Groot, W., Goldammer. J., Keenan, T., Brady, M., Lynham., T., Justice, C., Csiszar, I., and O'Loughlin, K.: Developing a global early warning system for wildland fire, in: Proceedings of V International Conference on Forest Fire Research, edited by: Viega, D., 2006.
Della-Marta, P., Luterbacher, J., von Weissenfluh, E., Xoplaki, E., Brunet, M., and Wanner, H.: Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability, Clim. Dynam., 29, 251–275, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0233-1, 2007.
Dimitrakopoulos, A., Gogi, C., Stamatelos, G., and Mitsopoulos, I.: Statistical analysis of the fire environment of large forest fires (> 1000 ha) in Greece, Polish J. Environ. Studies, 20, 327–332, 2011a.
Dimitrakopoulos, A. P., Bemmerzouk, A. M., and Mitsopoulos, I. D.: Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean environment, Meteorol. Appl., 18, 83–93, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.214, 2011b.
Dimitrakopoulos, A. P., Vlahou, M., Anagnostopoulou, C. G., and Mitsopoulos, I. D.: Impact of drought on wildland fires in Greece: implications of climatic change?, Climatic Change, 109, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0026-8, 2011c.
Drobyshev, I., Niklasson, M., and Linderholm, H. W.: Forest fire activity in Sweden: Climatic controls and geographical patterns in 20th century, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 154–155, 174–186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.11.002, 2012.
EEA: Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe, An indicator-based report. EEA report 12/2012, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Union, 2012 ISBN 978-92-9213-346-7, ISSN 1725-9177 https://doi.org/10.2800/66071, 2012.
Feidas, H., Noulopoulou, C., Makrogiannis, T., and Bora-Senta, E.: Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, 155–177, 2007.
Fernández-Montes, S., Rodrigo, F., Seubert, S., and Sousa, P.: Spring and summer extreme temperatures in Iberia during last century in relation to circulation types, Atmos. Res., 127, 154–177, 2013.
Finnish Forest Research Institute: Finnish Statistical Yearbook of Forestry. Finnish Forest Research Institute, 472 pp., Helsinki, Finland, 2010 (in Finnish with summary and captions in English).
Fujioka, F., Gill, A., Viegas, D., and Wotton, B.: Fire Danger and Fire Behavior Modeling Systems in Australia, Europe, and North America, in: Developments in Environmental Sciences, edited by: Bytnerowicz, A., Arbaugh, M. J., Riebau, A. R., and Andersen, C., 471–497, Elsevier, Netherlands and United Kingdom, 2008.
Ganteaume, A. and Jappiot, M.: What causes large fires in Southern France, Forest Ecol. Manage., 294, 76–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.055, 2013.
Ganteaume, A., Camia, A., Jappiot, M., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Long-Fournel, M., and Lampin, C.: A review of the main driving facors of forest fire ignition over Europe, Environ. Manage., 51, 651–662, 2013.
Gillet, N., Weaver, A., Zwiers, F., and Flannigan, M.: Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020876, 2004.
Hamed, K. H. and Rao, A. R.: A modified Mann Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, J. Hydrol., 204, 182–196, 1998.
Haylock, M., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A., Klok, E., Jones, P., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201, 2008.
Holden, Z. A., Morgan, P., Crimmins, M. A., Steinhorst, R. K., and Smith, A. M. S.: Fire season precipitation variability influences fire extent and severity in a large southwestern wilderness area, United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl030804, 2007.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Kailidis, D. and Karanikola, P.: Forest fires 1990–2000, Giachoudi-Giapouli, Thessaloniki, 2004.
Kalimeris, A., Founda, D., Giannakopoulos, C., and Pierros, F.: Long-term precipitation variability in the Ionian Islands, Greece (Central Mediterranean): climatic signal analysis and future projections, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 109, 51–72, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0550-5, 2012.
Karali, A., Hatzaki, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Roussos, A., Xanthopoulos, G., and Tenentes, V.: Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 143–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-143-2014, 2014.
Kendall, M. G.: Rank correlation methods, Griffin, London, 1975.
Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins,W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki,W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., van den Dool, H., Jenne, R., and Fiorino, M.: The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, B. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247–268, 2001.
Kolokythas, K. V. and Argiriou, A. A.: Homogenization of Temperature Time Series of Western Greece, in: Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, edited by: Helmis, C. G. and Nastos, P. T., Springer Atmospheric Sciences, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 535–540, 2013.
Koutsias, N., Martinez-Fernandez, J., and Allgower, B.: Do factors causing wildfires vary in space? Evidence from geographically weighted regression, GISci. Remote Sens., 47, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.2747/1548-1603.47.2.221, 2010.
Koutsias, N., Arianoutsou, M., Kallimanis, A. S., Mallinis, G., Halley, J. M., and Dimopoulos, P.: Where did the fires burn in Peloponnisos, Greece the summer of 2007? Evidence for a synergy of fuel and weather, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 156, 41–53, 2012.
Koutsias, N., Xanthopoulos, G., Founda, D., Xystrakis, F., Nioti, F., Pleniou, M., Mallinis, G., and Arianoutsou, A.: On the relationship between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894–2010), Int. J. Wildland Fire, 22, 493–507, 2013.
Lehtonen, I., Ruosteenoja, K., Venäläinen, A., and Gregow, H.: The projected 21st century forest fire risk in Finland under different greenhouse gas scenarios, Boreal Environ. Res., 19, 127–139, 2014.
Lloyd-Hughes, B. and Saunders, M. A.: A drought climatology for Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1571–1592, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.846, 2002.
Maheras, P., Patrikas, I., Karacostas, T., and Anagnostopoulou, C.: Automatic classification of circulation types in Greece: methodology, description, frequency, variability and trend analysis, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 67, 205–223, https://doi.org/10.1007/s007040070010, 2000.
Mäkelä, H. M., Laapas, M., and Venäläinen, A.: Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2591–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2591-2012, 2012.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.
Mart\'inez-Fernández, J., Chuvieco, E., and Koutsias, N.: Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 311–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-311-2013, 2013.
Meyn, A., Schmidtlein, S., Taylor, S. W., Girardin, M. P., Thonicke, K., and Cramer, W.: Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 19, 272–283, 2010.
Moberg, A. and Jones, P. D.: Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901–99, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1149–1171, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1163, 2005.
Moreira, F., Viedma, O., Arianoutsou, M., Curt, T., Koutsias, N., Rigolot, E., Barbati, A., Corona, P., Vaz, P., Xanthopoulos, G., Mouillot, F., and Bilgili, E.: Landscape – wildfire interactions in southern Europe: Implications for landscape management, J. Environ. Manage., 92, 2389–2402, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.028, 2011.
Moreno, M., Malamud, B., and Chuvieco, E.: Wildfire frequency-area statistics in Spain, Proc. Environ. Sci., 7, 182–187, 2011a.
Moreno, J. M., Viedma, O., Zavala, G., and Luna, B.: Landscape variables influencing forest fires in central Spain, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 20, 678–689, 2011b.
Moriondo, M., Good, P., Durao, R., Bindi, M., Giannakopoulos, C., and Corte-Real, J.: Potential impact of climate change on fire danger in the Mediterranean area, Clim. Res., 31, 85–95, 2006.
Moritz, M. A., Moody, T. J., Krawchuk, M. A., Hughes, M., and Hall, A.: Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L04801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl041735, 2010.
Nastos, P. T., Philandras, C. M., Founda, D., and Zerefos, C. S.: Air temperature trends related to changes in atmospheric circulation in the wider area of Greece, Int. J. Remote Sens., 32, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2010.517796, 2011.
Pausas, J. G.: Changes in fire and climate in the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin), Climatic Change, 63, 337–350, 2004.
Pereira, M. G., Malamud, B. D., Trigo, R. M., and Alves, P. I.: The history and characteristics of the 1980–2005 Portuguese rural fire database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3343–3358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3343-2011, 2011.
Pérez, F. and Boscolo, R.: Clima en España: Pasado, Presente y Futuro. Informe de evaluación del cambio climático regional, Clivar España, available at: www.clivar.es/files/informe_clivar_final.pdf (last access: 6 June 2014), 2010.
Piñol, J., Terradas, J., and Lloret, F.: Climate warming, wildfire hazard, and wildfire occurrence in coastal eastern Spain, Climatic Change, 38, 345–357, 1998.
Pnevmatikos, J. D. and Katsoulis, B. D.: The changing rainfall regime in Greece and its impact on climatological means, Meteorol. Appl., 13, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482706002350, 2006.
Sen, P.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389, 1968.
Sullivan, A. L.: Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007, 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 369–386, 2009.
Tanskanen, H., Venäläinen, A., Puttonen, P., and Granström, A.: Impact of stand structure on surface fire ignition potential in Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris forests in southern Finland, Can. J. For. Res,. 35, 410–420, 2005.
Tietäväinen, H., Tuomenvirta, H., and Venäläinen, A.: Annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Finland during the last 160 years based on gridded temperature data, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 2247–2256, 2010.
Uppala, S., Kallberg, P., Simmons, A., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M., Beljaars, A., Van De Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Holm, E., Hoskins, B., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P., Jenne, R., McNally, A., Mahfouf, J., Morcrette, J., Rayner, N., Saunders, R., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, 2005.
Van Wagner, C.: Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather IndexSystem. Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, Ontario, Forestry Technical Report, 35, 37 pp., 1987.
Vázquez, A. and Moreno, J. M.: Sensitivity of fire occurrence to meteorological variables in Mediterranean and Atlantic areas of Spain, Landscape Urban Plan., 24, 129–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2046(93)90091-Q, 1993.
Vázquez, A. and Moreno, J. M.: Patterns of fire occurrence across a climatic gradient and its relationship to meteorological variables in Spain, in: Global Change and Mediterranean-Type 10 Ecosystems, edited by: Moreno, J. M. and Oechel, W. C., Ecological Studies 117, Springer-Verlag, New York, 408–434, 1995.
Viedma, O., Moreno, J. M., and Rieiro, I.: Interactions between land use/land cover change, forest fires and landscape structure in Sierra de Gredos (Central Spain), Environ. Conservation, 33, 212–222, 2006.
Viedma, O., Angeler, D. G., and Moreno, J. M.: Landscape structural features control fire size in a Mediterranean forested area of central Spain, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 575–583, https://doi.org/10.1071/Wf08030, 2009.
Wastl, C., Schunk, C., Leuchner, M., Pezzatti, G., and Menzel, A. Recent climate change: Long-term trends in meteorological forest fire danger in the Alps, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 162–163, 1–13, 2012.
Xystrakis, F. and Koutsias, N.: Differences of fire activity and their underlying factors among vegetation formations in Greece, iForest – Biogeosci. Forest., 6, 132–140, https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor0837-006, 2013.
Xystrakis, F., Kallimanis, A. S., Dimopoulos, P., Halley, J. M., and Koutsias, N.: Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 21–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-21-2014, 2014.
Zeileis, A., Leisch, F., Hornik, K., and Kleiber, C.: strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models, J. Stat. Softw., 7, 1–38, 2002.
Zeileis, A., Kleiber, C., Krämer, W., and Hornik, K.: Testing and dating of structural changes in practice, Comput. Statistics Data Analysis, 44, 109–123, 2003.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint