Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 771–777, 2013

Special issue: New developments and applications in early warning, monitoring...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 771–777, 2013

Brief communication 25 Mar 2013

Brief communication | 25 Mar 2013

Brief communication "A prototype forecasting chain for rainfall induced shallow landslides"

P. Mercogliano2,1, S. Segoni3, G. Rossi3, B. Sikorsky2,1, V. Tofani3, P. Schiano2,1, F. Catani3, and N. Casagli3 P. Mercogliano et al.
  • 1Euro Mediterranean Centre For Climate Changes (C.M.C.C.), Impacts on Ground and Coast (ISC) Division, Via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100, Lecce, Italy
  • 2Italian Aerospace Research Center (C.I.R.A.), Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Capua (CE), 81043, Italy
  • 3University of Firenze, Department of Earth Sciences, Via la Pira 4, 50121, Firenze, Italy

Abstract. Although shallow landslides are a very widespread phenomenon, large area (e.g. thousands of square kilometres) early warning systems are commonly based on statistical rainfall thresholds, while physically based models are more commonly applied to smaller areas. This work provides a contribution towards the filling of this gap: a forecasting chain is designed assembling a numerical weather prediction model, a statistical rainfall downscaling tool and a geotechnical model for the distributed calculation of the factor of safety on a pixel-by-pixel basis. The forecasting chain can be used to forecast the triggering of shallow landslides with a 48 h lead time and was tested on a 3200 km2 wide area.